MLB 2020 Draft

[BlueRocky]

You nerds have me hoping that the Jays get Veen, butt KC will get him.

 

A month ago, Zac Veen looked like a bit of a stretch at #6 and now the Royals pick seem to be between Veen and Gonzales at #4. Bummer, we’ll see how things play out next week at the draft. Either way there’s a lot of options on the table for #5.

 

If the Orioles take Gonzales underslot at #2, and Marlins’ prayers are answered with Austin Martin, Lacy probably falls to Royals at #4. This scenario is unlikely to happen though and just a rumor.

Edited June 2, 2020 by BlueRocky

[Brownie19]

That’s probably like 99th percentile ceiling, I guess? That’s ultimately what the team drafting Gonzales is hoping for. It’s unlikely he will be the next Rendon though, Gonzales doesn’t even play 3B and probably an average defender at best.

 

If we have to throw comps around, maybe closer to young Brian Dozier?

 

Dozier was a 5-6 WAR player at his peek. I guess Metafor will have to rule on whether you're allowed to compare a potential top 5 draft pick to someone that good.

[Brownie19]

We haven't even talked about Robert Hassell. Kiley has him 6th overall now. Much more likely to stick in CF as a good defender. He looks like a future stud too.

[BlueRocky]

Good draft article here for anyone interested

https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/top-2020-mlb-draft-prospects-by-the-numbers/

 

State

 

In any draft year, a safe bet for the top three producing states would be California, Florida and Texas. That’s the case again in 2020, with California leading the way with 72 prospects (14.4 percent) in the BA 500. Players from the southern half of that state make up the bulk of that number at 57—which by itself is more than any state except Florida—while the northern half accounts for 15.

 

Florida follows with 57 prospects (11.4 percent) and Texas checks in at No. 3 with 43 prospects (8.6 percent) on the BA 500.

 

Below are the top 10 states that produce BA 500 players in 2020:

 

1. California — 72 (14.4 percent)

2. Florida — 57 (11.4 percent)

3. Texas — 43 (8.6 percent)

4. North Carolina — 31 (6.2 percent)

5. Georgia — 30 (6.0 percent)

6. Arizona — 22 (4.4 percent)

6. Tennessee — 22 (4.4 percent)

8. Oklahoma — 18 (3.6 percent)

9. Mississippi — 17 (3.4 percent)

10. South Carolina — 15 (3.0 percent)

 

Here is how the list shifts if you look at only players ranked among the top 100:

 

1. California (20)

2. Florida (16)

3. Texas (13)

4. Mississippi (6)

4. North Carolina (6)

6. Arizona (5)

6. Tennessee (5)

8. Georgia (4)

9. Oklahoma (3)

10. Arkansas, Illinois, Kentucky, Louisiana, Ohio, Pennsylvania, South Carolina (2)

 

Position

 

 

Below is how the BA 500 breaks down by position. It’s worth noting that two-way players and players who play multiple positions could be broken down into different groups. For our purposes here we have labeled those prospects by their primary position or most likely future position.

 

RHP — 198 (39.6 percent)

OF — 76 (15.2 percent)

SS — 71 (14.2 percent)

LHP — 66 (13.2 percent)

C — 32 (6.4 percent)

3B — 24 (4.8 percent)

1B — 20 (4.0 percent)

2B — 13 (2.6 percent)

 

Pitchers account for 264 (52.8 percent) of the 500 players, while hitters account for 236 (47.2 percent) of the 500 players.

 

Unlike 2019, the composition of positions is similar when you look at only the top 100 prospects in the class:

 

RHP — 39

OF — 17

SS — 16

LHP — 13

C — 7

3B — 4

1B — 3

2B — 1

School

 

Arizona State leads all schools with nine players ranked among the BA 500. Georgia and Vanderbilt are right behind and tied for second, with eight players apiece. Three programs have six players among the BA 500: Louisville, Oklahoma and Southern California. Thirteen schools have five players ranked on the BA 500, including American Heritage High (Plantation, Fla.), which leads all high school programs.

 

Arizona State, Miami, Mississippi State, Texas A&M and Vanderbilt each have three prospects among the top 100. Seven programs have two players among the top 100: Arkansas, Georgia, Harvard-Westlake High (Studio City, Calif.), Louisiana State, Louisville, North Carolina State and Ohio State.

 

Age

 

 

Below are the average ages for each source demographic, along with the top five youngest players among high schoolers and four-year prospects, along with the youngest junior college prospect in the BA 500.

 

Age refers to the date all players are on draft day, June 10.

 

4YR — 21.5

JC — 20.0

HS — 18.5

 

Youngest four-year players

 

1. Trenton Denholm, RHP, UC Irvine (20.5)

2. Will Klein, RHP, Eastern Illinois (20.5)

3. Logan Hofmann, RHP, Northwestern State (20.6)

4. Gage Workman, 3B, Arizona State (20.6)

5. Devonte Brown, 3B/OF, North Carolina State (20.7)

 

Youngest juco players

 

1. Julian Aguiar, RHP, El Camino (Calif.) JC (19.0)

2. Connor Phillips, RHP, McLennan (Texas) JC (19.1)

3. David Morgan, SS, Orange Coast (Calif.) JC (19.3)

4. Dylan Eskew, RHP, Chipola (Fla.) JC (19.4)

5. Hylan Hall, OF, Wabash Valley (Ill.) JC (19.4)

 

Youngest high school players

 

1. Blaze Jordan, 3B/1B, DeSoto Central HS, Southaven, Miss. (17.5)

2. Safea Mauai, 1B, Waiakea HS, Hilo, Hawaii (17.6)

3. Calvin Ziegler, RHP, St. Mary's HS, Owen Sound, Ont. (17.7)

4. Cannon Pickell, RHP, Currituck County HS, Barco, N.C. (17.7)

5. Robby Ashford, OF, Hoover (Ala.) HS (17.7)

[BlueRocky]

@Slade

5. Zac Veen, RF, Spruce Creek HS (FL), Florida commit, 50 FV: Veen is a lanky, smooth, 6-foot-4, above-average runner who fits in center field for now and has a chance to be a plus hitter with plus plate discipline and plus power. He likely will fill out and move to a corner, but he might have 70-grade power at that point.

 

We’ll be swinging for the fences with this pick, but it’s a bit hard to pass on that right?

 

8. Max Meyer, RHP, Minnesota, 50 FV: The righty exploded this spring after a strong summer with Team USA, with some scouts comparing him to Walker Buehler. Meyer hit 100 mph this spring and some scouts grade his spiked slider as a 80 pitch on the 20-80 scale, but he's a slightly built 6-footer.

 

Triple-digit fastball and 80-grade slider, it’s kinda hard to believe that package exists in a college pitcher and he’s not a consensus top 3 pick. Is his height really that big of a deal? I mean, didn’t Pedro Martinez consistently hit 97-98 @ 5-11, 195.

Edited June 2, 2020 by BlueRocky

[burlingtonbandit]

At first I was disappointed with Meyer keep getting mocked with the Jays but the more I look into it I think I'd be happy with the pick. The reliever risk seems in part a lot due to his size which doesn't matter much if he has two 70 plus grade pitches and holds his velo deep into games.

 

Maybe he breaks down once he's 30 because of his size but when you're drafting a pitcher all you care about is the 6 years of control. If he can have a Sonny Gray/Tim Lincecum career you'd take that in a second.

[THANOS]

At first I was disappointed with Meyer keep getting mocked with the Jays but the more I look into it I think I'd be happy with the pick. The reliever risk seems in part a lot due to his size which doesn't matter much if he has two 70 plus grade pitches and holds his velo deep into games.

 

Maybe he breaks down once he's 30 because of his size but when you're drafting a pitcher all you care about is the 6 years of control. If he can have a Sonny Gray/Tim Lincecum career you'd take that in a second.

 

And those guys were 5'8. Meyer is 6'0. He's got 4 inches on them and an inch taller than Pedro.

[Brownie19]

Meyer looks like he lands so wide open when he pitches. Anyone else see that in his mechanics?

[Beans]

You nerds have me hoping that the Jays get Veen, butt KC will get him.

 

I’m becoming emotionally invested in Veen, too...

[Beans]

BlueRocky - would an Anthony Rendon comp for Gonzales make sense?

 

Would a comparison to a 6-7 WAR player make sense? Probably not.

 

lol... savage

[BlueRocky]

Meyer looks like he lands so wide open when he pitches. Anyone else see that in his mechanics?

 

Here’s some brief footage of Max Meyer:

 

^ four pitches in Mason’s gif tweet.

 

 

Walker Buehler might not be the worst comp?

FB 97+

SL 87

CT 93~

CB 81

Edited June 2, 2020 by BlueRocky

[Brownie19]

Yeah - I see it in your YouTube link....but not as much in the 2 embedded videos.

 

I see it a lot in this video from his time with the USA team

 

 

 

Might just be camera angles.

[Spanky99]

I'd be keen on this guy as our 2nd pick(yes, I've said this before)...

 

40. Masyn Winn, SS/RHP, Kingwood HS (TX), Arkansas commit, 40+ FV: He is smallish but electric in all senses of the word. He'll flash two 70-grade pitches in his mid-90s heater and hellacious breaker, but he also is an easy plus runner who can stick at short and has above-average raw power. The industry is slightly leaning shortstop for his future, but some clubs might develop him both ways.

[glory]

[BlueRocky]

I'd be keen on this guy as our 2nd pick(yes, I've said this before)...

 

47

Masyn Winn

Kingwood (Texas) HSSS/RHP

Notes:

Ht: 5-11 | Wt: 180 | B-T: R-R

Commit/Drafted: Arkansas

Age At Draft: 18.2

 

Pound for pound, Winn could be the most purely talented player in the 2020 class. A legitimate two-way player, the Arkansas commit is overflowing with plus tools on both sides of the ball. As a hitter, he has bat speed, surprising raw power for his size (5-foot-11, 180 pounds) and plus speed that plays out of the box and on the bases. At shortstop, Winn is an exceptional athlete with massive arm strength, solid hands and impressive natural instincts. On the mound, he’s as electric. He’s been up to 98 mph with his fastball and more typically sits in the 92-96 mph range. He pairs that with a hard slider that can get slurvy, but he’s shown good feel to manipulate the pitch and has also flashed a plus changeup. All of his stuff likely plays up thanks to some deception that comes from a short and quick arm stroke. Some inconsistency and his smaller frame lead to legitimate reliever question marks. Teams are mixed on whether his upside is better as a pitcher or a hitter. If you squint you can see an impact player on both sides of the ball, though he needs more refinement and maturity on both sides. He plays the game at a quicker speed than most, but that can get him into trouble. As a position player, scouts would like to see Winn slow the game down, be more consistent on routine plays at shortstop, stay within himself more at the plate and chase fewer pitches out of the zone. Some teams wonder if he should continue playing both ways like former Louisville star Brendan McKay. He did that in a Jupiter performance last fall that is one of the best two-way performances scouts have ever seen at the event—he flashed three plus pitches on the mound and produced exit velocities of better than 100 mph three times. Winn’s upside and talent are obvious, but questions about his size and the all-around polish to his game persist.

 

I’ve heard from a couple draft guys high on him as a second rounder too, he might be a late first round pick.

Winn would be a bit of a project though, he’s only 18, he’d probably end up as a pitcher.

[Spanky99]

This 2-way spect sounds promising... Masyn Winn SS/RHP

 

video--> https://www.mlb.com/video/2020-draft-masyn-winn-p-ss?t=mlb-draft

 

Callis and Mayo...

 

Winn earns comparisons to Matt Bush, the No. 1 overall pick in 2004, for a variety of reasons. He's a legitimate two-way prospect as a short but talented shortstop with a live arm that can deliver upper-90s fastballs on the mound, and he also comes with makeup concerns because he got sent home early from the inaugural PDP League in July. He was the talk of the World Wood Bat Association World Championship in October, when he touched 98 mph with his fastball, backed it up with two plus secondary pitches and homered in the same game.

 

Winn has a higher ceiling on the mound, where he has a pair of high-spin-rate weapons in a heater that sits at 92-96 mph with riding action and a curveball that ranges from 79-82 mph. His low-80s changeup isn't as consistent as his fastball and curve but can give him a third plus offering at its best. His size and the effort in his delivery lead to questions as to whether he can hold up as a starter, but his athleticism and lightning-fast arm help his cause.

 

Some scouts prefer Winn as a shortstop and he profiles as a regular there. The Arkansas recruit still needs to refine his hitting ability from the right side of the plate but he possesses plus raw power and solid speed with good instincts on the bases. His arm is an obvious asset and he has the quickness to make plays.

 

Ralph Lifshitz...

 

Winn is a legitimate two-way player from Texas who is dripping with athleticism. Winn, a potential second round prospect as a shortstop alone, is built more in the shortstop mould at an athletic 5-foot-11, 180 pounds. As such, he doesn’t have the same leverage as many other top arms. That said, he has some of the best pure stuff in the class.

 

Winn sits 94-97 with his fastball and consistently touches 98 both on the mound and on the diamond. He pairs the heat with a power curve that flashes plus and sits 78-82 mph. Both the fastball and curve have exceptional spin rates with the latter averaging 2900 rpm in Jupiter. Reports of a changeup that is inconsistent but flashes plus with up to 15 mph of velocity separation from the fastball are floating around.

 

Winn has genuine 80 grade arm speed and a simple delivery that looks like an infielder on the mound. He will turn his head at the end of his delivery, leading to some inconsistent release points, but it looks much easier to clean up than traditional head-whack.

 

On day three of Jupiter, he went 3 for 4 with a 2B, 3B and a HR while throwing 3 scoreless innings. But conversely, he was sent home early from the PDP league, causing some to question his makeup.

 

As likely a round two player either as an arm or as a shortstop, Winn has big time upside if he chooses the mound. A ceiling of three plus pitches, triple digit velocity, and the athleticism to clean up his delivery and repeat loom. That said, he may well wind up a shortstop and pen arm, where his stuff would play up.

 

I’ve heard from a couple draft guys high on him as a second rounder too, he might be a late first round pick.

Winn would be a bit of a project though, he’s only 18, he’d probably end up as a pitcher.

 

Yeah, I shared this a few days back, I have no clue what the Birds are looking for at 42, you hear anything?

[BlueRocky]

Yeah, I shared this a few days back, I have no clue what the Birds are looking for at 42, you hear anything?

 

No one specifically, it’s hard to predict a pick that far down. But the pitching crop is especially strong in the second to third round range, so teams can grab intriguing arms with good stuff.

 

But with Shane Farrell replacing Steve Sanders and the weird scouting scene, I’m not too sure what they’ll do tbh.

Edited June 3, 2020 by BlueRocky

[BlueRocky]

Yeah - I see it in your YouTube link....but not as much in the 2 embedded videos.

 

I see it a lot in this video from his time with the USA team

 

 

 

Might just be camera angles.

 

Here’s some highlights from an elimination game last year, he was pretty impressive.

http://

[Spanky99]

P.S. BlueRocky Rocks!

[Slade]

BA Mock draft 6.0

 

https://www.baseballamerica.com/rankings/mlb-mock-draft/

 

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Spencer Torkelson

Arizona State1B

Notes:

It sounds like Torkelson is getting closer and closer to a lock for the Tigers as we approach the draft. Some sources believe that the No. 2 option for Detroit is not Vanderbilt outfielder Austin Martin, but the top pitcher in the class, Texas A&M lefty Asa Lacy.

 

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Zac Veen

Spruce Creek HS, Port Orange, Fla.OF

Notes:

We still believe Austin Martin is more likely to be the No. 2 pick for Baltimore, but there has been a lot of buzz about the Orioles cutting an underslot deal at this pick, and getting another high-end talent with an overslot deal at No. 30. Some people have mentioned New Mexico State shortstop Nick Gonzales in this scenario, but Zac Veen’s name has gotten plenty of heat. We’ll explore this scenario’s ripple effects throughout the first round in today’s mock. It does seem like a real possibility, but if this was our final mock, Martin would probably still be the name based on the information we have at hand.

 

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Asa Lacy

Texas A&MLHP

Notes:

With Martin available at No. 3 it might make some sense for Miami to pivot to the best pure hitter in the class, but sources we’ve talked with believe the Marlins are locking in heavily on Lacy.

 

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Austin Martin

VanderbiltOF

Notes:

This turns into a fantastic opportunity for Kansas City, as there are plenty in the industry who believe Martin is the top overall player in the class. It would be hard to see Martin falling past this point if Veen was an underslot option in front of them.

 

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Emerson Hancock

GeorgiaRHP

Notes:

There continues to be some hints about the Georgia righthander slipping into the back half of the top 10, but we’re also hearing the Blue Jays would be excited with Hancock. This is another potential landing spot for Veen if he’s still on the board.

 

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Max Meyer

MinnesotaRHP

Notes:

We continue to hear the Mariners tied to college arms and if they do go with that demographic in 2020, it would be the third straight year they’ve selected a college arm with their first pick. In 2018, Seattle took Stetson righthander Logan Gilbert with the No. 14 overall pick, while in 2019 they signed Elon righthander George Kirby at No. 20. Meyer’s upside is more exciting than both. The Mariners seem to be one of the few teams among the top 10 who would pass on Veen if he were available.

 

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Nick Gonzales

New Mexico StateSS

Notes:

This could be a dream scenario for the Pirates as well, with a top-three bat in the class falling to No. 7. Pittsburgh remains one of the more difficult teams to project among the top 10 clubs.

 

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Nick Bitsko

Central Bucks East HS, Doylestown, Pa.RHP

Notes:

This is where things get interesting. San Diego might be the floor for Veen if he doesn’t get an underslot deal higher up on the board, and in our current mock, Bitsko would be the arm that the Orioles are targeting for the No. 30 pick. However, would it make more sense for Bitsko to take an underslot deal at No. 8 ($5,176,900 value) or an overslot deal at No. 30 ($2,365,500)? It would be hard to go overslot enough in that range to beat the money for a top-10 pick. Bitsko would certainly be a risky pick here, but we’re talking about the Padres.

 

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Reid Detmers

LouisvilleLHP

Notes:

Colorado apparently really wants Veen to fall, but that doesn’t seem realistic. There are simply too many landing spots for the Florida prep outfielder in front of them. Some sources believe Detmers would be a good match for the club here as the safest arm in the class.

 

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Heston Kjerstad

ArkansasOF

Notes:

Kjerstad’s name has gotten plenty of buzz right in front of the Angels, so perhaps they would be thrilled for one of the more reliable college bats in the class to fall to them. Los Angeles is a bit of a wild card and they are in a spot on the board where they might simply be in a position to see who gets down to them. North Carolina State catcher Patrick Bailey makes some sense here as well.

 

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Patrick Bailey

North Carolina StateC

Notes:

The frequency in which we’ve mocked Bailey to the White Sox likely overstates our confidence in this pick. However, he’s a great fit for this spot on the board and the White Sox have traditionally been heavy on college prospects. This would be the ninth straight college player Chicago has taken with its first-round pick.

 

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Robert Hassell

Independence HS, Thompson's Station, Tenn.OF

Notes:

This could be near the floor for Hassell, the best pure hitter in the high school class. If the Padres and a number of other teams pass on him, the Reds might be happy to scoop him up. They continue to be tied to prep outfielders, and this decision might come down to the hit tool of Hassell compared with the power of Austin Hendrick.

 

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Garrett Crochet

TennesseeLHP

Notes:

Crochet seems to be a favorite as the next college arm to come off the board once Lacy, Hancock, Meyer and Detmers are off the board. There’s reportedly been interest for Crochet in the 11-14 range, but he remains difficult to peg because of his limited innings this spring in an already limited season.

 

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Garrett Mitchell

UCLAOF

Notes:

Like Crochet, Mitchell continues to be difficult to peg because of the question marks associated with his profile. However, he does have a solid floor as a no-doubt center fielder with 80-grade speed. Mitchell fits the previous Rangers profile of toolsy athletes while also coming from the college demographic. Last year, Texas signed just one high school player among the top 10 rounds. This pick gives them the best of both worlds.

 

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Tyler Soderstrom

Turlock (Calif.) HSRHP

Notes:

We’re hearing the Phillies are one of the teams interested in Soderstrom, and with the Rangers perhaps not being on him, maybe he falls to No. 15. Soderstrom is another prep player who’s been tied to teams throughout the middle of the first round. We previously had RHP Nick Bitsko to the Phillies, but he’s both unavailable in this mock and potentially not one of the team’s priority options here as well.

 

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Austin Hendrick

West Allegheny HS, Imperial, Pa.OF

Notes:

This could be a coup for the Cubs at No. 16, as Hendrick is the best available player remaining in the class and brings some of the biggest raw power. We’re solidly in the range of educated guessing at this point in the mock draft, with little hard information on who teams prefer and more rumors to contend with.

 

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Mick Abel

Jesuit HS, Portland, Ore.RHP

Notes:

Teams don’t expect Abel to get into the 20s and the Red Sox have been fine to take prep righties in previous years. Like the Hendrick pick with the Cubs, this selection would mean the Red Sox take the best player available on the BA 500.

 

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Pete Crow-Armstrong

Harvard-Westlake HS, Studio City, Calif.OF

Notes:

If Crow-Armstrong is on the board here, it’s hard to not place him with the Diamondbacks. The fit is simply too good, the talent makes sense in this range and there’s both safety and some upside with PCA thanks to his high-level center field defense and increased power this spring.

 

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Cade Cavalli

OklahomaRHP

Notes:

Cavalli is around the top of the next group of college arms that are incredibly difficult to sort through. The Mets have taken prep bats in the last two drafts in the first round, but they haven’t shied away from college arms in this range in the past, with plenty to choose from this year.

 

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Dillon Dingler

Ohio StateC

Notes:

Dingler’s name continues to be mentioned in the early 20s as a most-likely fit, though some teams wouldn’t be surprised to see him go in the late teens. His all-around profile as a defender and a solid bat should make him an interesting option for a number of teams. We could also see a run on college bats in this range, as teams opt to grab a hitter and figure out the arms later thanks to the depth of the 2020 pitching.

 

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Nick Loftin

BaylorSS

Notes:

Break Loftin down and you get a player that’s somewhat rare in the 2020 class. Close to a lock for shortstop with the added ability to play all over the diamond, a reliable bat with impressive production each year in the Big 12. And all that comes on top of solid summer track record and developing power. This year’s class of shortstops isn’t great, so Loftin could be even more attractive.

 

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Justin Foscue

Mississippi State2B

Notes:

While Foscue isn’t the defender that Loftin is, his bat might be better. He’s got good power and has proven his hit tool in the SEC. Foscue’s teammate, RHP JT Ginn, would make sense here for the Nationals for a variety of reasons as well, but he’s been difficult to project to this point.

 

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Jordan Westburg

Mississippi StateSS

Notes:

Westburg is younger than the average four-year player in this class and Cleveland is certainly a team where that matters. He also performed well in the Cape Cod League last summer, which should help his standing with the team’s model, though his strikeout rate might be a tick higher than the Indians would like to see.

 

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Aaron Sabato

North Carolina1B

Notes:

We’re sticking with Sabato to the Rays here. His power is the best available in the class and he’s getting talked about too frequently in this range.

 

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Bryce Jarvis

DukeRHP

Notes:

We have the Braves ending the run on college bats by taking one of the better performers in the 2020 season in Duke righthander Bryce Jarvis. Jarvis checks both analytical boxes and traditional scouting boxes, which may be a fit for Atlanta’s process.

 

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Ed Howard

Mount Carmel (Ill.) HSSS

Notes:

Oakland hasn’t shied away from athletes in the past, and we have them getting some good value in Howard, who has an argument as one of the better pure defenders in the class.

 

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Clayton Beeter

Texas TechRHP

Notes:

Beeter’s pitch data and his performance early this spring (2.14 ERA, 14.1 K/9, 1.7 BB/9) has him as one of the biggest risers in the country. Teams seem more optimistic about his health as he’s gotten further away from Tommy John surgery and scouts and quants alike both love how his fastball and curveball play.

 

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Slade Cecconi

MiamiRHP

Notes:

Cecconi might have gone higher than this with a full season to show his stuff, but that could also be said for every other player on the board. His upside is significant, he has a deep pitch mix and has good size.

 

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Tanner Burns

AuburnRHP

Notes:

The Dodgers haven’t taken a college pitcher in the first round since 2015, but it worked out pretty well with Walker Buehler. Burns doesn’t have the stuff that Buehler did coming out of college, but his performance is exceptional and he’s a safe bet to start.

 

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Jared Kelley

Refugio (Texas) HSRHP

Notes:

This is a bit of a bold prediction, as Kelley could come off the board much sooner than this. However, the Veen selection at No. 2 is based on getting a talent to fall here for an overslot deal and what demographic slides more than prep righthanders? If the Orioles could add a million to this slot ($2,365,500) the value would be better than each team in the 20s and the math could work with Veen still getting a better bonus than the slot value of the No. 4 pick. This would mirror what the Astros did in 2012 by taking Carlos Correa at No. 1 and then grabbing Lance McCullers at No. 41.

 

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Cole Wilcox

GeorgiaRHP

Notes:

On talent, Wilcox goes higher than this spot, but some college arms are going to get lost in the shuffle with teams targeting bats in the first round. This would give Pittsburgh solid value with both of their picks according to the BA 500.

 

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Bobby Miller

LouisvilleRHP

Notes:

After getting maybe the biggest steal in the draft with Austin Martin at No. 4, perhaps the Royals could continue adding to their depth of college arms with a number of options available here.

 

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Kevin Parada

Loyola HS, Los AngelesC

Notes:

Parada is getting some comp round buzz of late and a few teams might be in on his pure hit tool enough to sign him out of a Georgia Tech commitment. The D-backs could be one of those teams.

 

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Chris McMahon

MiamiRHP

Notes:

If the Padres do go with a high-risk pick at No. 8 from the prep demographic would they opt to balance things out with a safer pick here in the comp round? That doesn’t seem like their M.O. but McMahon still seems like good value in this spot.

 

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Carmen Mlodzinski

South CarolinaRHP

Notes:

Mlodzinski is perhaps the best ground ball pitcher in the class, so it just makes too much sense for him to not go to the Rockies.

 

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Austin Wells

ArizonaC

Notes:

Doubling up on college players doesn’t seem like Cleveland’s typical style, but Wells’ bat would be terrific value here and is likely the best available at this point.

 

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Jared Jones

La Mirada (Calif.) HSRHP

Notes:

After taking a college hitter with their first pick, we have the Rays going for one of the more athletic, high-upside arms in the prep class in Jones. His pure stuff is impressive and he was more refined and fluid in his delivery this spring. There are plenty of good indicators with Jones moving forward.

 

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[P2F]

Keith's latest mock:

 

Keith Law’s 2020 MLB mock draft: First-round projection 3.0

Keith Law 5h ago

 

The draft is just a week away — the first round and the Competitive Balance A round will be held on at 7 p.m. ET on June 10 — and a few more things are rounding into shape in the top half or so, although the view is blurrier as gets to the end of the teens. Here’s my third projection of how the first round, which comprises 29 picks, might play out, based on the best information I’ve gotten so far from industry sources.

 

1. Detroit Tigers: Spencer Torkelson, 1B, Arizona State

If the Tigers are going to pull a fast one on all of us, they’ve kept it fairly quiet. I would have no objection if they chose Austin Martin or Asa Lacy instead, but the world seems to think the Tigers take Tork.

 

2. Baltimore Orioles: Austin Martin, 3B/OF, Vanderbilt

I did hear they would consider an under-slot deal with Heston Kjerstad, taking the savings to go over slot at No. 30 (Competitive Balance pick) and No. 39 (second round), but I still think they’ll take Martin given his elite exit velocities and contact rates, and the fact that slot values at Nos. 30/39 will still get them someone pretty good. If the Tigers go rogue, I think the Orioles take Torkelson.

 

3. Miami Marlins: Asa Lacy, LHP, Texas A&M

I don’t believe Lacy would go second, but he could go first, in which case the Marlins would just take whichever of the top three guys is available.

 

4. Kansas City Royals: Zac Veen, OF, Spruce Creek (Fla.) HS

This rumor won’t go away, and I think it’s in part because there’s a clear top three in the draft and then a gap before the next tier of talent. Why not take the top high school player, go a little under slot and do something creative at picks No. 32 (Competitive Balance) and No. 41?

 

5. Toronto Blue Jays: Emerson Hancock, RHP, Georgia

I’ve heard pitching (Hancock, Max Meyer, maybe Reid Detmers) more than hitting (Nick Gonzales) here, but I’d be very surprised if they didn’t go with a college player.

 

6. Seattle Mariners: Nick Gonzales, 2B, New Mexico State

They might take Hancock if he were here — you could flip these two picks and I wouldn’t argue — but I think this is Gonzales’ floor.

 

7. Pittsburgh Pirates: Mick Abel, RHP, Jesuit (Ore.) HS

The Pirates have supposedly spent “a lot of time” on Abel, which doesn’t mean they’ll take him, but they’re serious about the possibility, and I also heard they didn’t want to go too safe.

 

8. San Diego Padres: Max Meyer, RHP, Minnesota

If they take Meyer, don’t be surprised to see him in the majors this year at some point. If he goes ahead of them, they could take Robert Hassell III or Heston Kjerstad or Veen.

 

9. Colorado Rockies: Robert Hassell III, OF, Independence (Tenn.) HS

I’ve heard Hassell and Kjerstad here, which may end up more of a philosophical debate (high school upside versus safe college) than a talent one. It doesn’t sound like they’d take any of the arms likely to get to them.

 

10. Los Angeles Angels: Patrick Bailey, C, NC State

I could see them taking Meyer if he got here (which he won’t) or Detmers if he got here (which he might), although they took a very similar player to Bailey last year in his teammate Will Wilson (now a Giant). Pete Crow-Armstrong might be a dark-horse candidate here.

 

11. Chicago White Sox: Reid Detmers, LHP, Louisville

I have heard the White Sox aren’t wedded to taking a college player here, but it’s been ages since they went with a high school player in the first round — their organizational philosophy seems to be to take bigger risks when the opportunity cost is lower, which I understand completely — and Detmers does a lot of things they value in pitchers.

 

12. Cincinnati Reds: Heston Kjerstad, OF, Arkansas

I’ve heard them more with college pitchers than hitters, including Detmers and Cade Cavalli, but that also assumed Kjerstad was going No. 7 or No. 9.

 

13. San Francisco Giants: Tyler Soderstrom, C/3B, Turlock (Calif.) HS

This connection comes up again and again, although they are also among the few teams in the top 20 to focus on Nick Bitsko.

 

14. Texas Rangers: Nick Bitsko, RHP, Central Bucks East (Pa.) HS

And this is another team focusing on Bitsko in the top 20. Teams below Texas identified the Rangers as one of the teams most willing to take a bigger risk in this year’s draft even though it leans college and the majority of teams are signaling conservative approaches.

 

15. Philadelphia Phillies: Cade Cavalli, RHP, Oklahoma

Cavalli boosted himself this spring in the brief college season, looking more advanced once he was no longer also trying to hit, and he probably fits in the teens here. The Phillies seem open to any player type except high school pitching.

 

16. Chicago Cubs: Garrett Mitchell, OF, UCLA

The Cubs seem unlikely to take a high school pitcher, and other executives have speculated that they’d go college given the new scouting director and the need to get some players into the system faster.

 

17. Boston Red Sox: Pete Crow-Armstrong, OF, Harvard-Westlake (Calif.) School

I’ve heard the Red Sox would like to grab one of the top high school position players with this pick, assuming the right one falls, and after Veen and Hassell, Crow-Armstrong is the next guy.

 

18. Arizona Diamondbacks: Ed Howard, SS, Mount Carmel (Ill.) HS

The Mike Hazen D-Backs went big on upside last year, and their biggest successes to date in the draft have come on high school position players. I know of teams in the 20s hoping Howard falls to them but also had sources above that indicate they don’t think he gets out of the teens.

 

19. New York Mets: Austin Hendrick, OF, West Allegheny (Pa.) HS

Hendrick has only a couple of landing spots, as he’s going to be sophomore-eligible if he goes to Mississippi State and may ask for an over-slot bonus, even though scouts didn’t see him play this year. The Mets seem to be hoping for a top high school bat to get to them, with college pitching the fallback.

 

20. Milwaukee Brewers: Dillon Dingler, C, Ohio State

Dingler is a reasonably high-floor guy because of his catch-and-throw skills, and he was working his way into the top half of the round when the season ended. There are still some concerns about his durability at a position that’s very physically demanding.

 

21. St. Louis Cardinals: Chris McMahon, RHP, Miami

The Cards were the one team I had heard linked to high schooler Dylan Crews, who removed himself from the draft this week, but beyond that it’s been more college pitchers and a few position players (e.g., Jordan Westburg).

 

22. Washington Nationals: Cole Wilcox, RHP, Georgia

I’ve heard this connection a slew of times, and it does fit the Nats’ general preferences; if Wilcox goes before this, I could see them having an interest in Garrett Crochet, another tall and very hard-throwing college arm.

 

23. Cleveland: Tanner Witt, RHP, Episcopal (Texas) HS

Witt has been up to 95 mph with a very projectable frame and a lightning-quick arm. He’s also still 17 years old as of draft day, which figures heavily in Cleveland’s model for the draft.

 

24. Tampa Bay Rays: Bryce Jarvis, RHP, Duke

Jarvis’ jump of almost 10 mph from last year, when he was a 37th-round pick, to this spring is quite unusual for a 22-year-old, but he’s worked himself into first-round consideration and could come under slot given his age, since he’d be 23.5 at the 2021 draft.

 

25. Atlanta Braves: Jared Kelley, RHP, Refugio (Texas) HS

I’ve heard they’re one of the few teams targeting high school pitching, and while it’s not necessarily for their first-round pick, they do like Kelley and could take him here as a “value” pick, since he was once forecast to go much higher.

 

26. Oakland Athletics: Jordan Westburg, SS, Mississippi State

The A’s tend to go college when they pick later in the first round, and they could go with Westburg, UNC’s Aaron Sabato, or a pitcher like Jarvis or Bobby Miller.

 

27. Minnesota Twins: Clayton Beeter, RHP, Texas Tech

Beeter might have worked his way into the first half of the round had the season continued, but as it is, some teams’ models have his hammer curveball as the best pitch in the draft, which puts him in the mix for an analytics-focused team like the Twins.

 

28. New York Yankees: Bobby Miller, RHP, Louisville

Miller has been overshadowed a bit by teammate Detmers but is getting some first-round attention from teams in the 20s, especially the Yankees, who like the plus life on his mid-90s fastball.

 

29. Los Angeles Dodgers: CJ Van Eyk, RHP, Florida State

The Dodgers are willing to go high school, although the last time they did that was in 2018 for J.T. Ginn, who didn’t sign and will probably go in the No. 20-40 range next week. Van Eyk was getting top-15 buzz in the preseason, but after Week 1 he had a few disappointing outings and never got a chance to right the ship. His stuff grades out well on TrackMan, which will appeal to several teams at the end of the round.

 

 

Note: Houston lost its first-round pick as part of MLB’s punishment for the sign-stealing scheme.

[JG34]

With Martin slipping to 4 on that mock I wonder if there’s a possibility he drops to 5 (Very small chance). I don’t think I’d be disappointed with any of Gonzales, Veen, Hancock or Meyer.

[Jimcanuck]

I had the sense there was going to be a medical report on Hancock released before the draft. Anyone have anything on this?

[THANOS]

With Martin slipping to 4 on that mock I wonder if there’s a possibility he drops to 5 (Very small chance). I don’t think I’d be disappointed with any of Gonzales, Veen, Hancock or Meyer.

 

Same. I'd probably be most happy with Veen, but wouldn't be upset with any of those choices.

 

Veen > Meyer > Gonzales > Hancock

 

That's my preference.

[Boxcar]

Same. I'd probably be most happy with Veen, but wouldn't be upset with any of those choices.

 

Veen > Meyer > Gonzales > Hancock

 

That's my preference.

 

My preference is whoever the Jays end up picking because I don't know how good any of these guys will be in the majors, assuming they get there.

[BlueRocky]

With Martin slipping to 4 on that mock I wonder if there’s a possibility he drops to 5 (Very small chance). I don’t think I’d be disappointed with any of Gonzales, Veen, Hancock or Meyer.

Austin Martin dropping to 5 would be sick.

[LGBJ29]

Jesus f***, the Veen hype train is out of control. He's not getting to 5.

 

I guess, I mean he probably only needs to slip past 1 team.

[glory]

I'm kinda hoping for a Groshans type of pick where we all flip out because it wasn't any of the names we discussed prior to the draft, and then we all look stupid when it turns out to be one of the better picks in the draft.

[BlueRocky]

https://www.sportsnet.ca/baseball/mlb/blue-jays-weigh-risk-reward-final-prep-unique-mlb-draft/

Given the opportunity, and the circumstances, there’s an interesting debate to be had over whether the Blue Jays are better off taking on more risk for more potential reward, knowing they’re unlikely to pick this high again for a while, or play it a bit safer, surrendering some upside for a player likelier to become a big-league contributor.

 

“There’s obviously risk associated with every draft pick,” says Farrell. “It becomes a little heightened just with how high we’re picking this year, but it really shouldn’t change too much of our overall process or how we’re viewing players as a whole. Weighing probability versus upside is always the balance. You can look historically at different demographics or areas, position-wise or anything like that, that tend to be a bit riskier or carry a less likely chance of reaching their ceiling. There are certainly outliers, too, to every demographic. But betting on the rule and not the exception is typically the way to approach it.”

 

Such an approach would be in line, philosophically, with recent Blue Jays drafts in which they’ve largely tried to diversify their portfolio of picks.

 

In 2016, the first draft under GM Ross Atkins and president and CEO Mark Shapiro, the club played it safe with its first two picks, selecting right-hander T.J. Zeuch and outfielder J.B. Woodman, both out of college, before taking a big swing with their third choice, choosing shortstop Bo Bichette, now a franchise cornerstone, out of high school.

 

The Blue Jays went the college route with their first pick again in ’17, taking infielder Logan Warmoth, and then set themselves up with a potential high-impact choice with the compensatory pick for Edwin Encarnacion’s departure at No. 28, landing ace prospect Nate Pearson out of junior college.

 

An outlier draft came in 2018 when the Blue Jays manipulated their signing bonus pool to land high-school teammates Jordan Groshans and Adam Kloffenstein with their first and third picks (collegiate outfielder Griffin Conine was sandwiched between them in the second round).

 

Then last year, the Blue Jays went back to the college ranks with their first pick, landing big right-hander Alek Manoah at No. 11 before making a pair of upside plays in right-hander Kendall Williams and fellow high-schooler Dasan Brown, a speedy outfielder from Oakville, Ont.

 

What they’ll do under Farrell, who inherited one of the industry’s larger scouting staffs established by Andrew Tinnish and further developed by Brian Parker and Steve Sanders, will be intriguing to watch.

 

Recent mock drafts by Baseball America and Keith Law of The Athletic link the Blue Jays to Georgia right-hander Emerson Hancock, while MLB.com has them taking high-school outfielder Zac Veen.

 

“Really, it’s just letting the draft class speak to you a little bit,” says Farrell, speaking of the club’s approach in general terms. “I don’t think you want to go in premeditated in terms of saying, ‘Hey, we pick in this range of the draft, we have to follow this avenue, or this sort of risk demographic.’ In a lot of cases it may be easier to take that big swing towards the backend of a draft because there’s less probability when you’re picking there as it is.

 

“There are certainly times to take a shot but focusing on the player pool, not trying to force anything, is really the key.”

 

Farrell will be leaning on his experience with the Chicago Cubs, where he served as an amateur scouting assistant, area scout and West-Coast crosschecker, in navigating the next couple of weeks and the June 10-11 draft.

 

Based on Shi Davidi’s piece with Shane Farrell, they’re not going to change their draft approach at #5.

 

They’ll be taking the best guy they feel is available regardless of industry consensus or “flee to a college pick” for safety. Reading between the lines, they aren’t scared away by riskier demographics such as HS position player like Zac Veen or a “risky with upside” pitcher like Max Meyer. All options will be on the table on draft day.

Edited June 3, 2020 by BlueRocky

[BlueRocky]

I'm kinda hoping for a Groshans type of pick where we all flip out because it wasn't any of the names we discussed prior to the draft, and then we all look stupid when it turns out to be one of the better picks in the draft.

 

That would be equivalent to grabbing like.. Austin Hendrick or Robert Hassell @ 5 and then reallocating those dollars to JT Ginn with the 42 pick.

 

Surprisingly a lot of teams (e.g. Orioles, Royals, Padres) seem interested in the underslot tactic this year, esp for teams with multiple picks in the top 50.

 

There isn’t a major gap between the top 3 guys, the next 3 guys, and the 5 guys after that. It’s a pretty strong crop at the top. And with only five rounds this year, weird s*** is gonna happen.

 

Austin Hendrick is kinda like Brett Baty / Nolan Gorman from past drafts. And Robert Hassell is like a Corbin Caroll with a tick more power, less glove. Not a perfect comp, but neither are bad players. I actually like Hendrick. There’s just more intriguing options with the 5th pick.

 

I want Blaze Jordan, knowing absolutely nothing about him.

He will be just 17 when drafted too. He is such a fascinating guy, hitting 500 ft. HR's at 13. Made his varsity team in Grade 8. Reclassified to be drafted early. He'll be scrutinized more than any player in the draft but in the end his name is Blaze and you just have to take him.

 

First basemen going 1-2 would be amazing.

Nice, another Pirates win.

 

We should definitely be picking at #5 now, but it's not for certain yet.

Blaze Jordan it is, lol.

 

Funny enough, Blaze Jordan might be available with our 2nd pick.

Dylan Crews is out of the draft now, and he was considered at top 10 pick just last summer.

Edited June 3, 2020 by BlueRocky