MLB 2020 Draft

[Spanky99]

This is Kiley's BPA? He really likes Veen a lot. Higher than Lacy and Hancock and just under Tork/Martin/Gonzo.

 

You're welcome, by the way.

[THANOS]

That's how I like it. Jay's taking Veen would be skippy. Mind you I really wouldn't care whom the Birds take here.

 

I'll be happy with any of Lacy, Veen, Gonzo, or even Meyer. I'm not as high on Hancock as others.

 

You're welcome, by the way.

 

Thanks for the detail. Didn't know if ever left FG.

[jays4life19]

Get on the Veen train.

 

And then get off and connect with the NGonzo train and ride it all the way home.

[Vdubfan]

Hello, Slade

 

https://www.espn.com/mlb/insider/story/_/id/29161728/how-abbreviated-2020-mlb-draft-impacts-year-beyond

[Brownie19]

"He's a fine catcher who has improved behind the plate, but most objections about his defense aren't taking into account a likely automatic strike-calling future by the time he gets to the big leagues."

 

It's interesting to see that in a scouting report!

[jays4life19]

lmao

[TheHurl]

BA writers seem certain that teams are going to go with the players with the most data available. They have just 3 high school players in their top 15 mock (Veen at 8, Abel at 13 and Hendrick 15), and 7 in the entire first round

[KevinGregg]

11. Max Meyer, RHP, Minnesota, 45 FV: The righty exploded this spring after a strong summer with Team USA, with some scouts comparing him to Walker Buehler. Meyer hit 100 mph this spring and some scouts grade his spiked slider as a 70 pitch on the 20-80 scale, but he's a slightly built 6-footer.

 

Has already hit 100 and has a "slight" build, meaning he could possibly put on more velocity as he gets stronger. Combined with a 70 grade slider! Sign me up for one Max Meyer

 

Here's what Kieth Law said about him in his mock:

 

 

10. Los Angeles Angels: Max Meyer, RHP, Minnesota

Meyer is “just” a six-foot right-hander, but has upper 90s velocity with the best slider in the draft, and if there is an MLB season this year he could be a candidate to go into someone’s bullpen this summer or fall, or at least serve on a taxi squad to come in as a replacement when a pitcher gets hurt.

[Brownie19]

Has already hit 100 and has a "slight" build, meaning he could possibly put on more velocity as he gets stronger. Combined with a 70 grade slider! Sign me up for one Max Meyer

 

Here's what Kieth Law said about him in his mock:

 

Keith sure knows how to develop your Top 10 pick!

[P2F]

I'll pass at taking a 6'0" pitcher with the #5 overall pick. He's more likely to lose gas than gain it if he's currently throwing in the upper 90s. Just saying.

[P2F]

I hope Shane Farrell knows what he's doing. He absolutely may, but we don't know that yet. I'd feel a lot more confident that Steve Sanders would not have f***ed up this pick, so let's hope that Farrell selects the right guy!

 

While the Jays know way more than I or any of us do about these players, it would seem that there's a very clear top 5 this year, so you'd think that they'd have to really like another player outside of that top 5 in order to take a guy like Veen, Meyer, Hassell, or Hendrick. If one of Gonzales or Hancock are there at #5, I really hope they don't get cute with the pick. Having said that, at the end of the day I will trust in whatever selection they make until they prove otherwise. It's not like the next 5 or so players aren't promising prospects or anything, but they are much riskier picks, imo.

[Brownie19]

I hope Shane Farrell knows what he's doing. He absolutely may, but we don't know that yet. I'd feel a lot more confident that Steve Sanders would not have f***ed up this pick, so let's hope that Farrell selects the right guy!

 

While the Jays know way more than I or any of us do about these players, it would seem that there's a very clear top 5 this year, so you'd think that they'd have to really like another player outside of that top 5 in order to take a guy like Veen, Meyer, Hassell, or Hendrick. If one of Gonzales or Hancock are there at #5, I really hope they don't get cute with the pick. Having said that, at the end of the day I will trust in whatever selection they make until they prove otherwise. It's not like the next 5 or so players aren't promising prospects or anything, but they are much riskier picks, imo.

 

You're probably 100% correct about this; however, I can't get past the concern of taking a pitcher. Something continues to worry me about Gonzales too (probably based on my love for Veen's swing). Like you - I gotta trust the FO.

[glory]

Yeah, I kinda wish we had Sanders for this draft given how condensed it is, but Shatkins has done a good job picking up player development/scouting talent, so I'll trust them here. Plus, a Farrell has never let us down before!

 

Is this draft going to be like the NFL draft in presentation? I liked that set up with the virtual setting and seeing the player reactions with their families.

[metafour]

I hope Shane Farrell knows what he's doing. He absolutely may, but we don't know that yet. I'd feel a lot more confident that Steve Sanders would not have f***ed up this pick, so let's hope that Farrell selects the right guy!

 

While the Jays know way more than I or any of us do about these players, it would seem that there's a very clear top 5 this year, so you'd think that they'd have to really like another player outside of that top 5 in order to take a guy like Veen, Meyer, Hassell, or Hendrick. If one of Gonzales or Hancock are there at #5, I really hope they don't get cute with the pick. Having said that, at the end of the day I will trust in whatever selection they make until they prove otherwise. It's not like the next 5 or so players aren't promising prospects or anything, but they are much riskier picks, imo.

 

The exact same infrastructure is in place as it was when Sanders was here. A pick that high is going to be heavily influenced by senior executives anyways - notably Tony LaCava who would have been preparing for this pick while Sanders was here, and with Farrell as well. Shane Farrell will not be left in a room by himself to make this pick, period.

[Grant77]

The exact same infrastructure is in place as it was when Sanders was here. A pick that high is going to be heavily influenced by senior executives anyways - notably Tony LaCava who would have been preparing for this pick while Sanders was here, and with Farrell as well. Shane Farrell will not be left in a room by himself to make this pick, period.

 

I agree. All of the staff, including Shapiro and Atkins, have surely spent more time than usual reviewing the amateur draft prospects this season.

[Slade]

Hello, Slade

 

https://www.espn.com/mlb/insider/story/_/id/29161728/how-abbreviated-2020-mlb-draft-impacts-year-beyond

 

Here you go.

 

On Friday, Major League Baseball decided to shorten the 2020 MLB draft to five rounds, despite clubs lobbying the league to make it 10 rounds.

 

The league had the option, per an arrangement agreed to by the players' union in March, to make the draft anywhere from five rounds up to 40 rounds, which it had been since 2012. The union rejected a league proposal last week that would have made the draft 10 rounds, but with lower slot values in Rounds 6 through 10 than the March agreement had outlined.

 

Clubs can sign an unlimited number of undrafted free agents for $20,000. The slot value for the last pick in the draft is $324,100. The March agreement set bonus slots at 2019 values (they normally rise each year with league revenue) and included a deferral program: $100,000 is due within 30 days of signing, 50% of what's remaining will be paid in July 2021, the rest in July 2022.

 

There are a number of implications now that this long-rumored move has been finalized, falling into three major categories.

 

2020 draft strategies

In addition to the changes in the draft, a severely abbreviated spring season for colleges and high schools has forced teams to adjust their approach.

 

Key 2020 MLB draft details

Shortened to five rounds instead of 40

 

Expected to begin June 10

 

Teams can utilize draft money as they choose

 

Teams can sign unlimited number of undrafted players for $20,000

 

Draft pick signing deadline expected to be Aug. 1.

 

Broadly, club officials expect teams to choose players in the top two or three rounds who had a long track record before this spring and a willingness to sign below the slot value. This means college players will win any coin-flip decisions with high school players, as they almost always have a more extensive track record than prep players. Additionally, the college players would lose negotiating leverage as 22-year-old juniors in the 2021 draft.

 

There's a group of roughly a dozen prep players who are well-known entities with long track records, plenty of performance data, and in some cases a spring season that had already started. Those players likely will be drafted in about the same place and get about the same nominal bonus they had been expecting in February.

 

There's a much bigger group of prep prospects who have a wider variance in how they're perceived by clubs because they have a shorter track record. With the asymmetry in asking price and what most teams are willing to pay them, combined with there being fewer picks, less money in the market, lower slots and bonus deferrals, many fewer high-end ($500,000 bonus or higher) high school players will be drafted and signed than would have been under last year's draft format.

 

• Club officials think teams will lean to college players and under-slot bonuses in the top two to three rounds. From there, teams might be able to use the gap in the slots from the fifth round ($324,100 to $426,600) and free agency (up to $20,000) to their advantage by offering half (or less) of slot to numerous targets in the fifth round, then select whoever accepts it first. That would mean that the non-consensus prep players with higher price tags will go in the third to fourth rounds, where clubs would spend the savings of their other picks.

 

• I've heard rumblings that a half-dozen or so clubs are in dire enough financial straits that their executives have discussed just taking the best college player on the board for their picks in Rounds 1-3 (the rounds with compensation for unsigned picks) and, without calling ahead to check on their signability, offer the player something like 70% of slot. In that situation, the club would get either a great bargain or, if the draftee doesn't sign, a compensation pick of equal value in 2021, plus a savings of $100,000 over the next year, which could end up saving a staff member's job if no games are played this summer.

 

It's an extreme position to take, but some execs are worried that if no MLB games happen in 2020, making even the short-term $100,000 bonus payment could impact jobs.

 

• A consensus top prep prospect such as Austin Hendrick is in a tricky spot. He's old for his class, so he would be sophomore-eligible in 2022 if he doesn't sign a pro deal and instead opts to go to Mississippi State. If he is drafted around the 10th pick, as expected this year, he'd get $100,000 this summer, then a couple of million the next two summers after that. If he goes to school and gets taken at the same pick in two years, the slots likely will be higher and there almost certainly won't be deferrals, so he'd get a bigger bonus, paid in full at the same time as a 2020 draft bonus would be paid off.

 

Betting on yourself as an elite prep prospect to play well at college has an even bigger return now, one that could be compelling even to top-10 overall picks.

 

For a player who is truly on the fence about signing for what he expects to be offered, this math could be meaningful. Hendrick's spring season in Pennsylvania never got started, so his track record from last summer is especially valuable, but some teams could still be hesitant to pick him over a comparable college player for whom they have more data and they saw play multiple games this spring.

 

Blowing out the draft

Last year, ESPN colleague Jeff Passan wondered if a team would ever pay the maximum penalty of two future first-round picks along with a penalty payment and spend wildly above their draft pool for one year. His conclusion was probably not, but I would submit that this year would make the most sense if a certain kind of club was inclined to give it a try. With more high school players who will be hard to sign for slot amounts, they should be easier to grab with later picks than usual.

 

EDITOR'S PICKS

 

Kiley McDaniel's 2020 MLB Mock Draft 1.0

 

MLB draft rankings: The top 100-plus players available in 2020 and beyond

 

Kiley McDaniel's MLB farm system rankings for all 30 teams

The instinct might be that this strategy wouldn't make sense with a draft of only five rounds, with no team holding more than seven picks. Could this strategy work with seven players? I think it could, if a team meets a number of specific criteria:

 

• The team would be picking later in the draft order and have a middle-tier bonus pool at most. There's no reason for a team to blow its budget in a year when it would already get a lot of talent.

 

• The team should be a slam dunk contender, ideally with a larger payroll, so the forfeited first-round picks would project to be late ones.

 

• The team has to have a top-notch amateur scouting department, both so the GM and owner feel comfortable letting them spend a very high amount of money, but also so that even with a shortened spring, they'd have enough information on top prospects to feel comfortable making these decisions.

 

• The team would need to have plenty of cash, as the bill over the next two summers would be big. For a number of reasons, a team wouldn't even want to be considering furloughs or staff cutbacks while being the first franchise to spend way over a hard-capped bonus pool in the draft.

 

This narrows the number of teams that could consider this strategy considerably. Some of these criteria are subjective, but I ended up landing on only one team for which such a plan could make sense: the Dodgers. I spoke to a few clubs that met most of these criteria and they admitted that they'd talked about this strategy internally, but it doesn't sound like any clubs are seriously considering it.

 

Even if a club were to meet all these criteria, the optics of spending wildly when other clubs are in serious financial trouble and people are being furloughed or taking pay cuts to save colleagues' jobs would be challenging.

 

Long-term labor concerns

The MLBPA has been trounced by MLB in almost every point of their negotiations in the recent past, but the league overplayed its hand when it came to determining the number of rounds in this year's draft.

 

First, it was reported that there might not be a draft this year (even though there always was going to be one), so when MLB offered the union a shorter draft with slot cuts and bonus deferrals, it seemed like a win for the players. It was negotiated that MLB had the discretion to make the draft anywhere from five to 40 rounds, but it was understood that the draft would be between five and 10 rounds, as the league wanted to limit draft expenditures for owners who had lost so much early-season revenue.

 

Most hyped prospect ever for every team

 

Bryce Harper, Ken Griffey Jr. and Bo Jackson lived up to their billing. Todd Van Poppel and Gregg Jefferies? Not so much. Here's the one prospect we were sure would be your team's next superstar.

David Schoenfield

 

Once teams told commissioner Rob Manfred that they wanted a draft of 10 rounds, since it made for more flexibility in the draft process for little added cost, MLB proposed that to the union, but with even more cuts to potential spending from what already had been agreed upon. The union rejected this proposal because it would set the precedent that a 10-round draft could be run with significant financial concessions, and the union didn't want a 10-round draft to be part of its new collective bargaining agreement in 2022 and beyond.

 

Agents advising the union told me they essentially saw doubling the number of players entering pro ball at half the expected bonus payout as a net negative, due to the possibility that this would help lead to more draft cuts in future years.

 

MLB took the stance that going from five to 10 rounds was a concession by the league that it needed to be compensated for, even though many clubs preferred the extra rounds. When the union rejected the proposal with the reduced payouts, it would have been a clear negotiating loss for the league to just make it a 10-round draft at the agreed-upon slots.

 

So the league ended up boxing itself into a worse outcome for its clubs. The bonus expenditure for Rounds 6-10 is just less than $30 million, or less than $1 million per team. With deferrals, that means it would have cost each team on average roughly $500,000 for the next year. To the commissioner, it may have seemed worth a shot to try to get Rounds 6-10 at a discount, but the offer to the union dramatically increased the odds that Rounds 6-10 wouldn't happen at all. And for what? The projected savings in the first year (i.e. solving the short-term cash-flow issues) of the MLB proposal as opposed to the already-agreed-upon terms for Rounds 6-10 would have been less than $2 million spread across 30 teams, or roughly $60,000 per team.

 

Draft fiat foreshadows fiscal austerity

 

I bring all of this up because I think it's an indicator of how the league will approach the economic elements of the upcoming CBA negotiations. The league already was setting an aggressive economic agenda in cutting dozens of minor league teams in search of savings, at the cost of losing baseball in small-town America. There has been some lip service to establishing teams in independent leagues in those cities, but many of the affiliated teams on the proposed chopping block were losing money when the parent MLB clubs were paying the players. How would they suddenly become viable independent league clubs, unless MLB subsidized them at a meaningful enough level that there wouldn't be much reason to cut the teams in the first place?

 

With the huge loss of revenue from the coronavirus pandemic, owners can now simply say that financially struggling minor league clubs are necessary cuts to get the books in order. They can say that continued cuts or caps on bonuses for amateur players are necessary for the same reason. The MLBPA has accepted big cuts and caps on amateur markets because it prioritizes gains for the big leaguers. I've been told by sources on both sides of the negotiating table to expect hard-slotted picks and the trading of picks (the two go hand-in-hand) in both the domestic amateur draft and a newly created international draft for the 2022 season.

 

If MLB can now justify its unpopular cost-cutting stances as necessary to get its books in order, will it add another unpopular cost-cutting measure to the top of its agenda? Can we assume the league will treat all of these negotiations in the punitive way it handled a relatively minor issue like the number of rounds in a single year's draft? Will there be another long-term target as part of the next proposal, in addition to live baseball in small-town America and the incentives for young athletes to pursue a career in the game?

[P2F]

The exact same infrastructure is in place as it was when Sanders was here. A pick that high is going to be heavily influenced by senior executives anyways - notably Tony LaCava who would have been preparing for this pick while Sanders was here, and with Farrell as well. Shane Farrell will not be left in a room by himself to make this pick, period.

 

Thanks for pointing out the obvious, I guess? I realize it's not just Shane Farrell, as I literally went on to say in the same post that I will trust in this front office to make the correct pick lol. I don't know why anybody thanked your post, as it was f***ing stupid.

[TheHurl]

apologize if this was already posted. BA latest mock

 

1 Spencer Torkelson

Arizona State1B

2 Austin Martin

VanderbiltOF

3 Asa Lacy

Texas A&MLHP

4 Nick Gonzales

New Mexico State2B

 

5 Emerson Hancock

GeorgiaRHP

 

The Georgia ace is still talked about consistently with this top group of players and one decision-maker for a team in the top 10 still considers him a safe bet to go among the first five picks. Hancock checks plenty of boxes with perhaps the best command in the class, an easy plus fastball, plus changeup, an above-average slider, a good frame and a standout resume. With this pick, Hancock would become the highest-drafted pitcher to come out of the program and tie outfielder Jeff Pyburn (1980) as the highest-drafted player out of UGA, period.

 

6 Max Meyer

MinnesotaRHP

7 Reid Detmers

Louisville LHP

8 Zac Veen

Spruce Creek HS, Port Orange, Fla.OF

9 Heston Kjerstad

ArkansasOF

10 Garrett Mitchell

UCLAOF

11 Patrick Bailey

North Carolina StateC

12 Cade Cavalli

OklahomaRHP

13 Mick Abel

Jesuit HS, Portland, Ore.RHP

14 Garrett Crochet

TennesseeLHP

15 Austin Hendrick

West Allegheny HS, Imperial, Pa.OF

16 Robert Hassell

Independence HS, Thompson's Station, Tenn.OF

17 Austin Wells

Arizona C

18 Pete Crow-Armstrong

Harvard-Westlake HS, Studio City, Calif.OF

19 Jared Kelley

Refugio (Texas) HSRHP

20 Cole Wilcox

GeorgiaRHP

21 Justin Foscue

Mississippi State2B

22 Slade Cecconi

MiamiRHP

23 Tyler Soderstrom

Turlock (Calif.) HSC

24 Ed Howard

Mount Carmel (Ill.) HS

25 Nick Loftin

BaylorSS

26 Aaron Sabato

North Carolina1B

27 Carmen Mlodzinski

South CarolinaRHP

28 Tanner Burns

AuburnRHP

29

Dillon Dingler

Ohio StateC

[Krylian]

Thanks for pointing out the obvious, I guess? I realize it's not just Shane Farrell, as I literally went on to say in the same post that I will trust in this front office to make the correct pick lol. I don't know why anybody thanked your post, as it was f***ing stupid.

 

I wasn't going to, but after your post, I'm going to go thank it now also.

[P2F]

I wasn't going to, but after your post, I'm going to go thank it now also.

 

What a shocker.

[Krylian]

What a shocker.

 

Not sure who s*** in your chilli but you seem to be in a bad mood.

[P2F]

Not sure who s*** in your chilli but you seem to be in a bad mood.

 

Yeah, I probably shouldn't post here when I'm having a s***** workday lol. Sorry, guys.

[Slade]

Full Expansion of BA's mock 4.0 today

 

While MLB has yet to officially make the announcement, the 2020 draft will be just five rounds and will take place June 10. That means we’re a month away from the Tigers selecting the first player in the shortest draft in history.

 

Typically around this time, the class has separated itself and teams are starting to get a better idea of how the top of the first round might shake out. While teams still have a general sense of the names going at the top, there’s a greater sense of uncertainty around scouting departments than usual.

 

“Nobody knows what’s going to happen,” said one National League executive. “Really, how confident is anyone doing it? This is the least confidence I have ever had in a draft. I haven’t talked to one guy who feels good about it.”

 

RELATED: See The Top 500 2020 MLB Draft Prospects

 

While teams generally feel strong about their evaluations in the time they’ve been given, they are missing matchups which could help determine key distinctions between players. And just as importantly, teams aren’t able to get information at games that could clue them into which players their competitors around the league are targeting down the stretch.

 

“The thing that everyone is missing, especially when you pick really high—it’s very important who you are seeing out at the games,” said the NL exec. “If (a general manager and scouting director) walk in and their team is picking high—those guys aren’t going to coverage games.

 

“What you’re missing is the infield intel that you get … If you’re picking further down the list you know who those top four or five guys are … You know to move on to the next group (of players). That information is very important.”

 

In a typical year teams are able to specifically target their looks for directors, general managers and other high-level evaluators and decision-makers. In the absence of games, teams around the league are spending more time circling back, reevaluating and doubling down on the entire field of players.

 

Departments are spending as much time as possible watching video, pouring over data and also doing background and makeup assessment of players—which is significantly easier to manage this year with players not busy on the field.

 

Many clubs have already finalized or are currently in the process of finalizing their draft boards and lining up position rankings. In the coming weeks teams will also try and figure out the price points for all of their targets.

 

“We have taken the approach to dig deep and research every piece of information with all these guys,” said an American League executive. “In years past we have gone for more looks and we don’t have that. What we can do to supplement those variables is circle back and go over what they have done in the past.

 

“We have basically been doing our due diligence on all of our guys.”

 

While the draft picture is cloudier now than most years, there is a general sense that teams will aggressively target college players and prospects who have established track records that add security to their overall profile. With only five rounds and owners who don’t want to spend in the most valuable player acquisition market there is, each pick carries more weight.

 

With that said, here is Version 4.0 of our 2020 Mock Draft. We’ll continue to gather information on players and teams as we get closer to June 10.

 

Position

 

Keyword

FILTER

29 Matches

SEE FULL LIST COLLAPSE ALL

Updated on: 5/13/2020

1

det400x400.JPG

Spencer Torkelson

Arizona State1B

Notes:

Either Spencer Torkelson or Austin Martin have been mocked in the 1-2 spots throughout our process, and those two names continue to be mentioned here. With continued questions about Martin’s defensive position, Torkelson has been gaining steam and he has the best combination of hitting ability and power in the class. Perhaps it’s as simple as that for Detroit. With this pick, Torkelson would be the first college first baseman to go 1-1, though plenty of scouts in the industry will point to Pat Burrell (1998) as a player who was likely to move there.

 

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Austin Martin

VanderbiltOF

Notes:

At this point we’re expecting Baltimore to scoop up whichever of the two hitters Detroit passes on. While Torkelson has a significant edge in power production, Martin could be the best pure hitter in the class and will almost surely provide more value with the glove and with his running ability. Martin will become the eighth Vanderbilt player taken in the first round in the last ten years and the highest-drafted Commodore since Dansby Swanson (2015).

 

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3

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Asa Lacy

Texas A&MLHP

Notes:

It only takes three picks before things start getting murkier, though Lacy is still the presumptive favorite for Miami at this point after dominating early in the season. “He’s the best college lefthander that’s come through in a long time,” said one evaluator. Lacy will become the first southpaw taken in the first round out of Texas A&M since 1993, when Jeff Granger and Kelly Wunsch were selected No. 5 and No. 26, respectively.

 

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Nick Gonzales

New Mexico State2B

Notes:

There is some chatter that the Marlins are interested in Gonzales as well, and after missing out on Torkelson and Martin, perhaps they go with the best bat left on the board. In this scenario, we have Gonzales falling to the Royals. When Gonzales is selected, he will become the first New Mexico State product to go in the first round or even the first three rounds.

 

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Emerson Hancock

GeorgiaRHP

Notes:

The Georgia ace is still talked about consistently with this top group of players and one decision-maker for a team in the top 10 still considers him a safe bet to go among the first five picks. Hancock checks plenty of boxes with perhaps the best command in the class, an easy plus fastball, plus changeup, an above-average slider, a good frame and a standout resume. With this pick, Hancock would become the highest-drafted pitcher to come out of the program and tie outfielder Jeff Pyburn (1980) as the highest-drafted player out of UGA, period.

 

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Max Meyer

MinnesotaRHP

Notes:

Meyer elevated his draft stock more than any other collegian in the short time allotted during the 2020 season. He has steadily risen up our previous mock drafts and now his name is being talked about consistently among the top 10 picks. Plenty of high-level decision makers saw him dominate while showing top-of-the-class pure stuff this spring and he has an outstanding resume to match it—that combination typically doesn’t last long.

 

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Reid Detmers

LouisvilleLHP

Notes:

Detmers has one of the safest profiles in the draft according to most sources. Because of his impressive track record and polished game, he should be off the board at some point among the first 10 picks. While he doesn’t have the most upside, he is a very high-likelihood major league pitcher. “It’s solid stuff but his execution is insane,” said one evaluator.

 

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Zac Veen

Spruce Creek HS, Port Orange, Fla.OF

Notes:

Up until this pick, we have only college players going off the board. The industry expects the top part of the draft to be extremely college-heavy, though Veen is the one high school player who most think has a chance to go in this range. Veen had the benefit of playing in Florida this spring where he was seen by plenty of decision-makers and if there’s a team we know will go against the grain and take a high-upside prep player, it’s the Padres.

 

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Heston Kjerstad

ArkansasOF

Notes:

Kjerstad’s name is mentioned too frequently with this top group of players for us to think he’ll last much longer than this spot. Some sources have said they wouldn’t be surprised if he went as high as No. 6 to the Mariners. “His power profile is almost as good as anyone in the class,” said one exec. “Hits them out to all parts of the park.”

 

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Garrett Mitchell

UCLAOF

Notes:

Mitchell has long been one of the more polarizing players in the class. Lately his name has been mentioned more in the 7-12 range than the top six range that we’ve had him going in previously. That could be a function of teams talking through his diabetes, or simply because of his riskier offensive profile. We have him going to a team here who has previously taken a shot on a tooled up outfielder with some bat questions and looked great for it.

 

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11

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Patrick Bailey

North Carolina StateC

Notes:

Like Kjerstad, Bailey’s collegiate resume gives teams a lot of safety and with his catch-and-throw skill and power production in the ACC he should go off the board among the top 15 easily. This would make Bailey the highest drafted NC State player since Carlos Rodon in 2014. “He’s got a shot to sneak into the top 10,” said one scout. “Best catcher in the draft and teams always need catching.”

 

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Cade Cavalli

OklahomaRHP

Notes:

Cavalli’s name has been picking up steam, with teams excited about his exceptional stuff, clean delivery and the jump he showed in his control through four starts this spring. If Lacy, Hancock, Meyer and Detmers are the first tier of pitchers to go, Cavalli is leading the second group of college arms.

 

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Mick Abel

Jesuit HS, Portland, Ore.RHP

Notes:

Up until this spot, just one of the first 12 picks is projected to be a high school player. There could be a slight run on preps in the teens as teams sort through the top high school righthanders and a cluster of talented outfielders. There’s real concern about not seeing Abel in a game since last summer, but at some point the upside he offers will be too much to pass up and he made clear improvements over the offseason based on bullpens. “I believe in the velocity and the stuff that’s there. You can dream on the body and the repertoir," said one scouting director. "For me I would take him right outside the top 10. With a full spring easier to see (him in the) top 10.”

 

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Garrett Crochet

TennesseeLHP

Notes:

Crochet’s pure stuff compares to Max Meyer and most scouts thought with a strong spring he could have been in the top 10 conversations as well. As it stands, teams had just three innings to see him, so his landing spot sounds a bit wider than it would have been. “Still think he goes really good even though no one saw him,” said one scout. “It's a big leaguer regardless. He's a back end reliever (at worst) and ceiling is a No. 2 or No. 3 starter.”

 

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Austin Hendrick

West Allegheny HS, Imperial, Pa.OF

Notes:

Hendrick has been compared to Bryce Harper at times in terms of bat speed and the violence with which he plays the game, so this would be a fun pick for Philadelphia. Hendrick’s talent fits higher than this spot, but we have him sliding a bit with teams reaching for safer college profiles in the top 15. Hendrick has the best impact bat left on the board here and his upside is significant.

 

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Robert Hassell

Independence HS, Thompson's Station, Tenn.OF

Notes:

The Cubs should have a number of college arms to pick from at this spot if they want to go that direction again after taking Fresno State righthander Ryan Jensen last year. However, it’s rare that the best pure hitter in the prep class gets to this pick, so Chicago could have a steal here with Hassell.

 

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Austin Wells

ArizonaC

Notes:

The Red Sox have to deal with losing their second round pick as a penalty of their sign stealing. They now have a $5,129,900 to spend which ranks 26th among the 30 teams’ bonus pools. That could make it riskier to take a draft-eligible sophomore like Wells who could have a high asking price, but after the run of college hitters in front of this pick, he’s the best bat on the board and would give Boston as close to a sure thing as you could hope for in the draft in this range.

 

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Pete Crow-Armstrong

Harvard-Westlake HS, Studio City, Calif.OF

Notes:

Perhaps it’s too simplistic of us to throw Crow-Armstrong’s name to the Diamondbacks, but they have consistently targeted premium hit tools and athletes in the outfield in recent years. Players like Corbin Carroll, Alek Thomas and Jake McCarthy all fit that mold. Crow-Armstrong has a high floor thanks to his defensive potential in center field, well-rounded toolset and lengthy track record of performance in Southern California and his talent fits in this range.

 

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Jared Kelley

Refugio (Texas) HSRHP

Notes:

It’s difficult to see where the prep righthanders will fall in the draft, considering most teams in the industry have been more skeptical of the demographic in recent years. That could be compounded with more teams trying to avoid risk in a five-round draft. However, Kelley was seen enough this spring to give teams some confidence and his pure stuff and talent are more than fitting of first round selection.

 

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Cole Wilcox

GeorgiaRHP

Notes:

There’s been some chatter that Wilcox could go closer to his Bulldogs rotation-mate than this, perhaps as high as the 10-15 range. That isn’t a consensus opinion, as there are teams who still think Wilcox is going to be a reliever at the end of the day. Perhaps with a full season, Wilcox would have been able to prove otherwise, as he improved his control tremendously over his first four starts, walking just two batters in 23 innings, compared to 32 strikeouts.

 

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Justin Foscue

Mississippi State2B

Notes:

The final third of the first round is extremely difficult to suss out at this point, but we think there’s a chance teams target hitters in this range given the quality depth of arms further on in the draft. Foscue has one of the higher floors among the college hitters left on the board. He doesn’t have the toolset that players like Gage Workman at Arizona possess, but he has a quality hit tool and impressive zone recognition.

 

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Slade Cecconi

MiamiRHP

Notes:

I know we just said hitters could be targeted in this range, but check out Washington’s first round draft history. There’s something about arms they can’t seem to pass up, with eight of their last 11 first round picks being pitchers. Cecconi also has the physicality that might appeal to decision-makers with the Nationals. “The pure stuff is as big as anybody,” said one scout. “Big physical dude, don't worry about durability with him.” It’s worth mentioning Cecconi’s sophomore-eligible status as well due to concerns about signing.

 

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Tyler Soderstrom

Turlock (Calif.) HSC

Notes:

Cleveland might be just fine with teams in front of them targeting college players. They have been content to sit back and take whatever high-upside prep talent falls to them in recent years, and Soderstrom fits that bill as well. There’s a chance he goes in the 10-20 range because of his hit tool and power potential, but if he doesn’t we expect a team to scoop him up soon after.

 

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Ed Howard

Mount Carmel (Ill.) HS

Notes:

Howard is another player whose stock is difficult to evaluate after he didn’t play at all this spring, but he could be the best talent on the board at this spot. Sure, the Rays have plenty of middle infielders in their system as it is, but can you ever have enough shortstops? If Howard goes in the first he’ll be the second first-rounder out of Mount Carmel. The Angels took catcher Erik Pappas with the sixth pick in the 1984 draft.

 

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Nick Loftin

BaylorSS

Notes:

There are some shades of the Braden Shewmake selection last year with this projection, but Loftin keeps getting mentioned in the back of the first round. He has a chance to stick at shortstop, he’s a solid hitter and he started tapping into more power this spring. “A good baseball player playing shortstop with a good swing and everyone raves about the kid's makeup,” said one scout. “I could see him going in the back of the first or the comp round.”

 

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Aaron Sabato

North Carolina1B

Notes:

The A’s have have targeted big tools in recent draft years and Sabato has a big one in his massive raw power. Like we mentioned previously with Wilcox and Cecconi, Sabato is a draft-eligible sophomore which could make him more costly. But there’s not a safer impact bat on the board and Sabato had a few impressive at-bats this season against Max Meyer in front of plenty of decision-makers.

 

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Carmen Mlodzinski

South CarolinaRHP

Notes:

Mlodzinski entered the spring as a potential top-10 candidate, but he’s more regularly talked about in the back half of the first round. The Twins could be getting a steal here if Mlodzinski is the pitcher teams saw in the Cape, but while there are more questions about his true upside, he is a high-probability starter.

 

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Tanner Burns

AuburnRHP

Notes:

Burns and Mlodzinski are both high-floor prospects and Burns has the superior college track record after dominating each year in the SEC. He has above-average stuff across the board and while he’s undersized, he’s never had a problem taking the ball with Auburn and has logged 188.2 innings with a sub-3.00 ERA.

 

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Dillon Dingler

Ohio StateC

Notes:

Dingler could easily go before this pick, but the Dodgers do have more pool money to spend than six of the teams picking ahead of them. The Ohio State product has everyday potential behind the plate and players with that skill set don’t last long.

[Slade]

Here's Jim Calis mock.

 

https://www.mlb.com/news/2020-mlb-mock-draft-jim-callis-picks-1st-round?t=mlb-pipeline-coverage

 

5. Blue Jays: Zac Veen, OF, Spruce Creek HS (Port Orange, Fla.)

The best all-around hitter in the prep crop, Veen is a lock to be first high schooler taken with the Pirates, Padres and Rockies lining up behind the Blue Jays. Toronto also could be tempted by a college arm such as Hancock or Minnesota right-hander Max Meyer.

[BlueRocky]

Has already hit 100 and has a "slight" build, meaning he could possibly put on more velocity as he gets stronger. Combined with a 70 grade slider! Sign me up for one Max Meyer

 

Here's what Kieth Law said about him in his mock:

 

I’ve seen David Cone comps to Max Meyer on Pipeline, also heard Stroman comps. The main issue with Meyer is his ceiling, it’s lack of track record. He’s only started a handful of games in college, so no idea if his body can hold that stuff as a starter for whole season, although he played very good in 2020. The gamble might be easier to stomach for a team picking 8-15.

 

Jared Kelley, Mick Abel, Garrett Crochet have all hit triple-digits in bullpen sessions, and Hancock have hit 99mph in bullpen and 98mph in games. Max Meyer mostly sits 94-97 mph on Fb. Scouts are more enamoured with Meyer’s slider, which has been clocked 91-93 mph with nasty movement, a scout source from BA said “it’s the best amateur breaking ball they’ve ever seen.” That’s like a Jacob deGrom slider. Meyer is also very athletic build and has played some outfield/dh as a two-way player.

 

http:// https://www.mlb.com/news/2020-mlb-mock-draft-jim-callis-picks-1st-round?t=mlb-pipeline-coverage

Btw guys Jim Callis also mocked us with Zac Veen

5. Blue Jays: Zac Veen, OF, Spruce Creek HS (Port Orange, Fla.)

The best all-around hitter in the prep crop, Veen is a lock to be first high schooler taken with the Pirates, Padres and Rockies lining up behind the Blue Jays. Toronto also could be tempted by a college arm such as Hancock or Minnesota right-hander Max Meyer.

[Ehjays]

Is Veen "signable" ? (with this years draft payouts being $100,000 is due within 30 days of signing, 50% of what's remaining will be paid in July 2021, the rest in July 2022) I wonder if teams will avoid HS picks unless they are assured of him signing.

[THANOS]

[Slade]

Is Veen "signable" ? (with this years draft payouts being $100,000 is due within 30 days of signing, 50% of what's remaining will be paid in July 2021, the rest in July 2022) I wonder if teams will avoid HS picks unless they are assured of him signing.

 

I don't see why not it's not like him going to college is going to get him a better draft slot. If he gets drafted in the range people expect it's still a guranteed $4-6 Million regardless of when the full payout is.

[Slade]

Just want to fan the Veen flame some more. I really don't think there is a bad choice here. The names connected to us are Gonzalez, Veen, Hancock, Meyer. I'm not thrilled with the Meyer cause I don't know how his stuff holds up with his body over a full season but there is still projection in him at least for strength.

 

[Spanky99]

Yeah, I probably shouldn't post here when I'm having a s***** workday lol. Sorry, guys.

 

You're awesome buddy, don't sweat it, lol.