Blue Jays must Extend Justin Smoak.

[EastCoaster]

The Blue Jays would be wise to extend Justin Smoak he's not going to cost them a lot good value for the money. He lead the team in practically in every offensive stat category despite having no protection. Smoak is most feared Blue Jays bat all opposing pitchers wants no part of him at the plate. He's among the top 10 leaders in baseball for base on ball with like of Trout, Gallo, Bergaman and Betts he's a great teammate and veteran with good defensive skill who could help the upcoming kids.

[Boxcar]

Bergaman

[DigitalRock]

The Blue Jays would be wise to extend Justin Smoak he's not going to cost them a lot good value for the money. He lead the team in practically in every offensive stat category despite having no protection. Smoak is most feared Blue Jays bat all opposing pitchers wants no part of him at the plate. He's among the top 10 leaders in baseball for base on ball with like of Trout, Gallo, Bergaman and Betts he's a great teammate and veteran with good defensive skill who could help the upcoming kids.

 

Good post, would read again. Especially liked Bergaman.

[Boxcar]

Burgerman

[jays4life19]

Damn, i'm going to eat burgers for the draft tonight. thanks.

[Jimcanuck]

Damn, if Smoak is that good, imagine what he would return in trade. Then, sign him in the offseason. Win-Win.

[Rusty_Savage]

Just trade him straight up for Bergaman

[Olerud363]

The Blue Jays would be wise to extend Justin Smoak he's not going to cost them a lot good value for the money. He lead the team in practically in every offensive stat category despite having no protection. Smoak is most feared Blue Jays bat all opposing pitchers wants no part of him at the plate. He's among the top 10 leaders in baseball for base on ball with like of Trout, Gallo, Bergaman and Betts he's a great teammate and veteran with good defensive skill who could help the upcoming kids.

 

What is the use of Smoak without a protector?? Do you think with better hitting tips Vladimir could develop into a protector? Currently Vladimir is mediocre and could not protect Smoak. But imagine if Vladimir improves a bit. He hits a lot of 118 mph mile line drives at the center fielder. Once a week or so he gets that 118 mph line drive with a 25 degree launch angle and it goes into the flower pots 430 feet away.

 

But it's not quite enough for good protection. However imagine Vlad learns hitting better, and goes from a .250 .320 .450 hitter, to .270 .340 .490. It's not a big difference but Pitchers would notice and they would designate Vlad as a protector in their notes I've seen them keep under their hats. Now you could move Vlad behind Smoak and it would increase Smoaks numbers. This is how I would see their numbers over a full season.

 

Smoak (with protection) .280 .350 .550 with 40 homers (on base goes down with protection but way more homers)

Vald (the protector) .270 .340 .490 with 30 homers

 

Now take this a step further and get a Vlad a protector. What about Matt Kemp?? He is a veteran that could be asked to protect. Then we have

 

Smoak (with protection) .280 .350 .550 with 40 homers

Vlad (with protection) .280 .350 .550 with 40 homers

Kemp (the protector) .260 .320 .490 with 30 homers

 

Kemp doesn't have to be a superstar just enough to add protection, he'll add 10 homers to Vlad's total + 30 of his own.

[G-Snarls]

Original post reads like a computer doing a bad translation from Japanese to English

[Angrioter]

The Blue Jays would be wise to extend Justin Smoak he's not going to cost them a lot good value for the money. He lead the team in practically in every offensive stat category despite having no protection. Smoak is most feared Blue Jays bat all opposing pitchers wants no part of him at the plate. He's among the top 10 leaders in baseball for base on ball with like of Trout, Gallo, Bergaman and Betts he's a great teammate and veteran with good defensive skill who could help the upcoming kids.

 

Women really like Bergaman

[BlueRocky]

If we don’t think Rowdy can take 1B full time then extending Smoak can buy you some time. He can be kept on reasonable money and term and atleast provides an OBP and thump guy in your young lineup, also switch-hitter. Having one veteran guy in the club house also doesn’t hurt.

 

The low BA, OBP, SLG, wRC+, RISP concerns are symptoms of a bigger problem.

The main issue is there’s too many bench players/quad-A guys playing everyday. This happens when a carousel of guys get an extended look to see if they can “do better” or win a job (Teoscar, McKinney, Drury, Tellez, Davis, Brito, Hanson) while relying heavily on veterans that have clearly outperformed career norms on a hot streak as your main hitters (Galvis, Sogard). Grichuk is also... being Grichuk.

 

A couple of our rookies haven’t come close to their minor league production (Vlad, Jansen), which could take more time. I think having Gurriel in LF and Biggio at 2B injects some life into a very stale lineup. But it would help to get one elite OF bat through trade/FA to complement this young core.

[EastCoaster]

Aren't we so canny for a Monday wow a type O big deal. It's no great wonder how an idiot like Doug Ford ended up being your Premier.

[EastCoaster]

What is the use of Smoak without a protector?? Do you think with better hitting tips Vladimir could develop into a protector? Currently Vladimir is mediocre and could not protect Smoak. But imagine if Vladimir improves a bit. He hits a lot of 118 mph mile line drives at the center fielder. Once a week or so he gets that 118 mph line drive with a 25 degree launch angle and it goes into the flower pots 430 feet away.

 

But it's not quite enough for good protection. However imagine Vlad learns hitting better, and goes from a .250 .320 .450 hitter, to .270 .340 .490. It's not a big difference but Pitchers would notice and they would designate Vlad as a protector in their notes I've seen them keep under their hats. Now you could move Vlad behind Smoak and it would increase Smoaks numbers. This is how I would see their numbers over a full season.

 

Smoak (with protection) .280 .350 .550 with 40 homers (on base goes down with protection but way more homers)

Vald (the protector) .270 .340 .490 with 30 homers

 

Now take this a step further and get a Vlad a protector. What about Matt Kemp?? He is a veteran that could be asked to protect. Then we have

 

Smoak (with protection) .280 .350 .550 with 40 homers

Vlad (with protection) .280 .350 .550 with 40 homers

Kemp (the protector) .260 .320 .490 with 30 homers

 

Kemp doesn't have to be a superstar just enough to add protection, he'll add 10 homers to Vlad's total + 30 of his own.

 

Guerrero Jr is getting pitches to hit he need to be more selective he's young it's a learning curve . Smoak is his protector because the pitcher rather pitch to him than Smoak. They also rather to pitch to Tellez or anybody hitting after Justin than face him. Just look at his walks they want no part of his bat he's discipline enough not to go chasing after bad pitches. The problem is that the Blue Jays are in a rebuild mode they're not going to go after aging players they only need one or 2 veterans on the team.

Edited June 3, 2019 by EastCoaster

[Olerud363]

If we don’t think Rowdy can take 1B full time then extending Smoak can buy you some time. He can be kept on reasonable money and term and atleast provides an OBP and thump guy in your young lineup, also switch-hitter. Having one veteran guy in the club house also doesn’t hurt.

 

The low BA, OBP, SLG, wRC+, RISP concerns are symptoms of a bigger problem.

The main issue is there’s too many bench players/quad-A guys playing everyday. This happens when a carousel of guys get an extended look to see if they can “do better” or win a job (Teoscar, McKinney, Drury, Tellez, Davis, Brito, Hanson) while relying heavily on veterans that have clearly outperformed career norms on a hot streak as your main hitters (Galvis, Sogard). Grichuk is also... being Grichuk.

 

A couple of our rookies haven’t come close to their minor league production (Vlad, Jansen), which could take more time. I think having Gurriel in LF and Biggio at 2B injects some life into a very stale lineup. But it would help to get one elite OF bat through trade/FA to complement this young core.

 

McKinney, Teoscar, Drury, Tellez, Davis, Brito, Hansen, Vlad, and Jansen are all significantly missing both their career averages and projections.

 

I'm tired of hearing that these guys are just aaaa players. That may be true but that isn't the issue. Some of these guys may be bad players. But they aren't even coming close to their bad projections, or bad career averages.

 

Hansen Career OPS+ 71, Toronto OPS+ 10

Brito Career OPS+ 37, Toronto OPS+ -19 (minus)

Teoscar, Career OPS+ 102, 2019 toronto OPS+ 53

Mckinney, was projected a little higher

Jansen, was projected a lot higher

Vlad, was projected higher

Tellez, was projected a bit higher

 

These guys are all underperforming. If they were performing as aaaa players that would be a huge improvement over what they are doing. The narratative should be

 

The greatest prospect ever is performing like a aaaa player would - (Vlad, only 20 and will improve but still...)

The good prospect (Jansen) is performing like Socrates Brito (career average)

Brito is performing like some guys on this board would if called up

Teoscar, Tellez, Drury, Hanson, are significantly underperforming their career numbers and aaaa potential.

[G-Snarls]

The Blue Jays would be wise to extend Justin Smoak he's not going to cost them a lot good value for the money. He lead the team in practically in every offensive stat category despite having no protection. Smoak is most feared Blue Jays bat all opposing pitchers wants no part of him at the plate. He's among the top 10 leaders in baseball for base on ball with like of Trout, Gallo, Bergaman and Betts he's a great teammate and veteran with good defensive skill who could help the upcoming kids.

 

I am feel though Justin smokes and will smokey wiffle until next year. Should value of offering people valued higher will predicate much happiness.

 

Year two no block but should rise glorious with team option B.

[Olerud363]

How is every single guy on the Twins over performing and everyone on the Jays underperforming?? Fluke?? Random?? Coaching??

 

I am not talking about the talent of the players. One can take Teoscar Hernandez and compare him to Max Kepler, and argue that their minor league and major league numbers are close, but Kepler is better. That's fine. But NOTE, before this year their minor league and major league numbers were close.

 

What I am saying is why has Kepler added 150 points of slugging and is excelling while Teoscar lost it completely??

 

Why are Castro and Mitch Garver hitting their brains out while Jansen, who was probably projected to be better than both hitting like pre-2019 Socrates Brito??

 

Why is every single guy on the Twins over performing while everyone on the Jays is underperforming??

[EastCoaster]

McKinney, Teoscar, Drury, Tellez, Davis, Brito, Hansen, Vlad, and Jansen are all significantly missing both their career averages and projections.

 

I'm tired of hearing that these guys are just aaaa players. That may be true but that isn't the issue. Some of these guys may be bad players. But they aren't even coming close to their bad projections, or bad career averages.

 

Hansen Career OPS+ 71, Toronto OPS+ 10

Brito Career OPS+ 37, Toronto OPS+ -19 (minus)

Teoscar, Career OPS+ 102, 2019 toronto OPS+ 53

Mckinney, was projected a little higher

Jansen, was projected a lot higher

Vlad, was projected higher

Tellez, was projected a bit higher

 

These guys are all underperforming. If they were performing as aaaa players that would be a huge improvement over what they are doing. The narratative should be

 

The greatest prospect ever is performing like a aaaa player would - (Vlad, only 20 and will improve but still...)

The good prospect (Jansen) is performing like Socrates Brito (career average)

Brito is performing like some guys on this board would if called up

Teoscar, Tellez, Drury, Hanson, are significantly underperforming their career numbers and aaaa potential.

 

The problem with Vlad Guerrero jr is that the fans and the baseball community had enormous high expectation of him. They expect a grand slam at his first at bat tremendous burden for a young man to carry on his shoulders. Plus his shorten spring training and injury didn't help I think he doing just fine he showing signs of coming into his own no worries Guerrero will be the star they projected him to be.

[Boxcar]

What is the use of Smoak without a protector?? Do you think with better hitting tips Vladimir could develop into a protector? Currently Vladimir is mediocre and could not protect Smoak. But imagine if Vladimir improves a bit. He hits a lot of 118 mph mile line drives at the center fielder. Once a week or so he gets that 118 mph line drive with a 25 degree launch angle and it goes into the flower pots 430 feet away.

 

But it's not quite enough for good protection. However imagine Vlad learns hitting better, and goes from a .250 .320 .450 hitter, to .270 .340 .490. It's not a big difference but Pitchers would notice and they would designate Vlad as a protector in their notes I've seen them keep under their hats. Now you could move Vlad behind Smoak and it would increase Smoaks numbers. This is how I would see their numbers over a full season.

 

Smoak (with protection) .280 .350 .550 with 40 homers (on base goes down with protection but way more homers)

Vald (the protector) .270 .340 .490 with 30 homers

 

Now take this a step further and get a Vlad a protector. What about Matt Kemp?? He is a veteran that could be asked to protect. Then we have

 

Smoak (with protection) .280 .350 .550 with 40 homers

Vlad (with protection) .280 .350 .550 with 40 homers

Kemp (the protector) .260 .320 .490 with 30 homers

 

Kemp doesn't have to be a superstar just enough to add protection, he'll add 10 homers to Vlad's total + 30 of his own.

 

What's everyone having for dinner today?

[Boxcar]

Aren't we so canny for a Monday wow a type O big deal. It's no great wonder how an idiot like Doug Ford ended up being your Premier.

 

Type

O

 

I'm actually B-

[Olerud363]

What's everyone having for dinner today?

 

Either you have something to add about singing Smoak and getting him protection or you don't. Dinner has nothing to do with it. Imagine a lineup full of protectors all hitting behind Smoak. In modern baseball he'd hit 80 homers. Start at a baseline of 30, then add 10 for the first protector, 8 for the second (the farther away the protector is the lesser the effect and so on). And then think if Smoak is hitting second who-ever is hitting first would have an 80 homer guy protecting them. It would be great. Sign him now.

Edited June 3, 2019 by Olerud363

[Boxcar]

Either you have something to add about singing Smoak and getting him protection or you don't. Dinner has nothing to do with it. Imagine a lineup full of protectors all hitting behind Smoak. In modern baseball he'd 80 homers. Start at a baseline of 30, then add 10 for the first protector, 8 for the second (the farther away the protector is the lesser the effect and so on). And then think if Smoak is hitting second who-ever is hitting first would have an 80 homer guy protecting them. It would be great. Sign him now.

 

I'm imagining a lot of grilled meats

[Ex Player]

At age 32 how many good years does Smoak have left in the tank??

[Deadpool]

At age 32 how many good years does Smoak have left in the tank??

 

Probably a couple, we're not going to get much for him in trade and I'm not really sold on Tellez as a full replacement for him as of yet, so I don't HATE the extension idea, but it's not really THAT crucial.

[TheHurl]

Smoak is such a great fit and upgrade for the Rays right now. Rays have a handful of prospects in their top 30 who, would be exposed to the rule 5 next year (Betts, Linares, Gomez, Whitley, Brujan, Hernandez, Taylor, Krook, Fox, Boldt, Poche & Brosseau), and a bunch more which they added recently that haven't made the 25 man yet (Lowe...who would be my target, Faria, McCarthy). I don't know who else is looking to move a not so expensive 1B, so I just think it's a great fit.

[Jonn]

You can always trade Smoak and bring him back in the off-season if you really want to but I am sure they will just roll with Rowdy for a season at First with Biggio playing some 1B as well.

[Ex Player]

Smoak is such a great fit and upgrade for the Rays right now. Rays have a handful of prospects in their top 30 who, would be exposed to the rule 5 next year (Betts, Linares, Gomez, Whitley, Brujan, Hernandez, Taylor, Krook, Fox, Boldt, Poche & Brosseau), and a bunch more which they added recently that haven't made the 25 man yet (Lowe...who would be my target, Faria, McCarthy). I don't know who else is looking to move a not so expensive 1B, so I just think it's a great fit

But unless we get someone decent in return for him (READ: not another Brito please) I dont see the point in trading him.

Might as well extend and keep him for a couple more years

[Spanky99]

Smoak is such a great fit and upgrade for the Rays right now. Rays have a handful of prospects in their top 30 who, would be exposed to the rule 5 next year (Betts, Linares, Gomez, Whitley, Brujan, Hernandez, Taylor, Krook, Fox, Boldt, Poche & Brosseau), and a bunch more which they added recently that haven't made the 25 man yet (Lowe...who would be my target, Faria, McCarthy). I don't know who else is looking to move a not so expensive 1B, so I just think it's a great fit.

 

Nathaniel Lowe? Yes, please. Put a little Faria on top and that would be tasty.

[EastCoaster]

I never believed that so many people could be so stupid on baseball here. It's only after reading some of the post and comments that really exposed the true naivety about the game by some.

 

First any player who in his walk year has minimal value because no team will invest in a rental player for only few month. The only exception if a team is going for broke winning the WS example the David Price traded and after Price walked away while the Blue Jays lost 3 prospects.

 

Now with the new compensation rules teams are no longer willing to risk draft picks on FA that were given QO like Keuchel and Kimbrel now it's a waiting game with Boston and Houston having nothing for losing 2 good players.

 

Still a no brainer signing Smoak would be cheaper than a QO and then once lock in his value become higher if they ever wanted to trade him.

[Spanky99]

lol

[Deadpool]

I never believed that so many people could be so stupid on baseball here. It's only after reading some of the post and comments that really exposed the true naivety about the game by some.

 

First any player who in his walk year has minimal value because no team will invest in a rental player for only few month. The only exception if a team is going for broke winning the WS example the David Price traded and after Price walked away while the Blue Jays lost 3 prospects.

 

Now with the new compensation rules teams are no longer willing to risk draft picks on FA that were given QO like Keuchel and Kimbrel now it's a waiting game with Boston and Houston having nothing for losing 2 good players.

 

Still a no brainer signing Smoak would be cheaper than a QO and then once lock in his value become higher if they ever wanted to trade him.

 

Here's some light reading for you.