April in Review

[Terminator]

So April is in the can, do we know anything more about the team? I think it's a little better than I thought it would be but we have a ton of black holes that are going to prevent us from contending for WC2.

 

Things I liked:

-Stroman looks good and I'm digging the pitch usage.

-Rowdy Tellez is proving me wrong. He actually looks like a useful player and should provide surplus value, at least until he hits arb.

-Danny Jansen's D looks really solid. Arm is probably just ok but his framing is currently 6th in the league. His bat should get going but this guy could be a Top 5-10 Catcher if it does.

-In addition to DJ, there's a lot to like on defense. Teoscar's D looks much improved to me and DRS has him at +4. I know it's a SSS and he's made a gaffe or two but I'd just leave him in LF from now on and see if the improvement is real. Galvis and Drury are + defensively. Vlad Jr. looks like he can stick at 3rd, at least until he balloons up to 280. In Urena's short amount of time here he looks like a wizard. Could be an ok backup INF.

 

Things I don't:

-Montoyo doesn't appear to be a progressive Rays-type of manager to me and seems to be a clear downgrade from Gibby.

-McKinney looks like crap and it's hard to pull any data to suggest he's going to be good. His exit velo is toward the very bottom of the league.

-Too many zeros on the team. Hanson, Brito, Luciano (special circumstances aside), McKinney are weighing us down.

-Bullpen outside of Giles, Gaviglio and Pannone looks pretty bad and one of the latter two is going to probably going to have to help in the rotation.

 

What does everyone else think?

[tbad]

Can't disagree with anything you said. Just curious to see what a month of Vlad will bring. I expect Jansen will improve offensively once he settles in with all his catching duties. And Drury has been on fire the last week. Obviously expect some regression Sogard and Galvis, which will be a benefit as it should lead to a Biggio call-up.

[Bobthe4th]

Additional Positives

-Elvis hasn't been completely overmatched in every appearance, I'm more confident we can hide him on the roster all year now without harming his development.

-We are not the Orioles.

 

Additional Negatives

-Shoemaker getting injured for the rest of the season - he was looking good and could have been traded to a contender.

-Grichuk hasn't shown anything to suggest he's anything more than an OK player - not convinced his extension is a good move.

-This season was Gurriel's chance to secure 2B for the foreseeable future, and he's blown it with terrible play in the field. It looks more likely he'll be a utility player now (if he sticks at all) and not a starter.

-It needs to be restated how f***ing awful the Brito and Hanson signings have been. Not only have they sucked, but the signings are pointless wastes of roster spots that could be taken by fringe prospects who at least of a chance of surprising and improving with playing time at MLB.

[KevinGregg]

Billy Mckinney has been as bad as Brito - both are at -0.5 WAR. This is definitely a surprise. He's actually worse than Alen Hanson.

I knew I hated seeing him in the lineup but this put it into prospective. At Least Drury looks like he has some upside. Brito can't possibly be this bad with the bat.

 

Time to dump Mckinney and Hanson IMO

[KevinGregg]

Additional Negatives

-Shoemaker getting injured for the rest of the season - he was looking good and could have been traded to a contender.

-Grichuk hasn't shown anything to suggest he's anything more than an OK player - not convinced his extension is a good move.

-This season was Gurriel's chance to secure 2B for the foreseeable future, and he's blown it with terrible play in the field. It looks more likely he'll be a utility player now (if he sticks at all) and not a starter.

-It needs to be restated how f***ing awful the Brito and Hanson signings have been. Not only have they sucked, but the signings are pointless wastes of roster spots that could be taken by fringe prospects who at least of a chance of surprising and improving with playing time at MLB.

 

I think he's shown a lot. His defence in CF has been league average at worst with flashes of potential to be above average. He's not flashy but he's solid. He also ranks in the middle of the pack of all hitters for Barrels/PA so there's a good chance his power will be maintained going forward. A .320 OBP .500 SLG season with above average CF defence is a real possibility for him IMO

[Bobthe4th]

I think he's shown a lot. His defence in CF has been league average at worst with flashes of potential to be above average. He's not flashy but he's solid. He also ranks in the middle of the pack of all hitters for Barrels/PA so there's a good chance his power will be maintained going forward. A .320 OBP .500 SLG season with above average CF defence is a real possibility for him IMO

 

Solid / OK player, not worth locking up for 5 years IMO. TBF we are weak in OF and it's not like he's a bad player, but I haven't seen anything yet that suggests it was a move that had to be made.

[KevinGregg]

Solid / OK player, not worth locking up for 5 years IMO. TBF we are weak in OF and it's not like he's a bad player, but I haven't seen anything yet that suggests it was a move that had to be made.

Yeah I agree with you that it was an early offer, but that's the gamble you take to get great players on team friendly deals. If it doesn't work out perfectly it's still hard to see that contract becoming an albatross

[BlueRocky]

Grichuk has traditionally been s*** in April, hold judgement till summer.

 

I agree with most of the points above, will add a couple:

 

Pitching

 

- They look intent on the Elvis Luciano project, there’s a chance they’re stubborn enough to carry him all year. He hasn’t been as bad as I thought.

 

- All our AAA pitching “projects” are looking like bullpen arms. Let’s see what happens when Julian Merryweather joins the fun.

 

- Not having Shoemaker, Borucki, Richards might complicate things in May & beyond

 

- Please keep Sanchez in full time bubble wrap

 

- Stroman looks like juicy trade bait unless we extend him

 

- Joe Biagni has actually been good

 

 

Hitters

 

- I feel like the front office’s plans this year is literally throwing s*** on the wall and see what sticks. They’re trying to catch lightning in a bottle with Socrates Brito and Allen Hanson. But they’re also giving significant playing time to Teoscar, Drury, McKinney to see if they can breakout. Are any of these guys realistically part of the core for 2021?

 

- Not surprised Vladdy needed time to adjust. Not pushing any panic buttons.

 

- Jansen has been okay, but his arm is a little bit of a concern in that Angels series. I feel like he needs to throw a bit closer towards 1B. Our pitchers haven’t really been helping but it’s worth noting.

 

- Encouraging signs and surprises from both Sogard and Galvis. Not expecting this to last all season. Galvis is a good stop gap even if his bat comes back down to Earth, it’s refreshing to have a shortstop that has four healthy limbs (for the most part)

 

- Tellez has real power, and hasn’t embarrassed himself against lefties. A little bit more comfortable at 1B if Smoak does get dealt or leaves next year.

 

- I’m still not high on Teoscar but our OF options are brutal

 

 

Some notes on our prospects & farm system

 

- Cavan Biggio needs to be up here. .351/.495/.636, OPS 1.131 in 25 games, 101 PA. wRC+ 188 in triple-A. 27 hits, 23 walks to 18 strikeouts.

He may or may not be something, and there’s only one way to find out. Call him up and let him play.

 

- I still believe in Gurriel’s bat, he’s been solid since getting demoted to Buffalo. But I’m not sure defensively how you’re going to fit him in a very crowded infield in 2021-2022. Left field might not be a bad option for Gurriel as pinpoint throwing accurately may not be as big of a concern than 2B.

 

- Kevin Smith is having a slow start in AA, way too many strikeouts. Still high on him, hopefully he can put it together during the second half.

 

- Nate Pearson is showing front of the rotation potential. The 5 inning / 2 inning schedule is a bit strange, hope it’s just a short term thing to buildup his arm strength.

 

- Josh Winckowzki has been dealing. 2-0 in 5 starts. ERA 1.04, WHIP 1.115, 9K/9, 3.12 BB/9. 69.2% GB%

 

- Pitchers like Nick Allgeyer (A+), Maximo Castillo (A+), and Zach Logue (AA) also deserve a bit more recognition as prospects. Castillo is only 19 and showing results in Dunedin.

 

- Andrew Sopko from the Russell Martin trade has been pretty good in AA. Ronny Brito hasn’t played so no comment.

 

- Reggie Pruitt is finally showing life in Lansing, we drafted him back in 2015. Not sure it’s enough to regain prospect status but it’s nice to see. He’s still only 21.

 

- I’m still high on Otto Lopez. He was off to a hot start and cooled off, we’ll see what happens.

 

- The bang bros in Lansing have been raking and Groshans is getting recognized on BA’s top 100 list with a slight bump to no. 65. Captain Kirk should be a top 15 prospect in our farm if this keeps up.

 

- Nice to see Riley Adams getting promoted to AA. Both him and Cullen Large are off to a great start in Dunedin.

 

- Ryan Noda has actually been pretty decent, though his walkrates are down and K% is up. wRC+ in 190 in rookieball, 160 in Lansing, and 150 in Dunedin. He’s played 12 games in OF and 11 games at 1B. Looking for more HR power as weather heats up.

Edited May 3, 2019 by BlueRocky

[Terminator]

I’m still not high on Teoscar but out OF options are brutal

 

Our OF is so bad. Concerned about it and the rotation moving forward.

[tbad]

Who the F would be high on Teoscar

[G-Snarls]

Thanks for rhe overview

 

We need to trade for an OF its just too bleak

[DigitalRock]

Montoyo is so far the biggest disappointment imo. The outfield is really bad..we need outfielders.

[polar bear]

I scratch my head wondering why the likes of Hansen and Brito are considered good enough,yet Urina isn't.

[Abomination]

I scratch my head wondering why the likes of Hansen and Brito are considered good enough,yet Urina isn't.

 

Hanson and Brito are guys you don't care if they sit on the bench for 5 or 6 days a week. You don't want a young prospect like Urina in that bench role, you want him playing.

[Abomination]

Montoyo is so far the biggest disappointment imo. The outfield is really bad..we need outfielders.

 

That's not Montoyo's job.

[polar bear]

Hanson and Brito are guys you don't care if they sit on the bench for 5 or 6 days a week. You don't want a young prospect like Urina in that bench role, you want him playing.

 

How old is Urina ?

[BlueRocky]

Urena is 23 but honestly if he’s a solid backup infielder that’s already a win.

He’s been decent this year but let’s not get ahead of ourselves. Still young though so I can understand the AAA developmental time.

[DigitalRock]

That's not Montoyo's job.

 

WTF are you talking about? Montoyo being bad at managing is not his job? What? The outfield being bad is a seperate issue.

[Stangstag]

Billy Mckinney has been as bad as Brito - both are at -0.5 WAR. This is definitely a surprise. He's actually worse than Alen Hanson.

I knew I hated seeing him in the lineup but this put it into prospective. At Least Drury looks like he has some upside. Brito can't possibly be this bad with the bat.

 

Time to dump Mckinney and Hanson IMO

 

Wow, would not have guessed that. I've been talking kindly about McKinney, he's one of those scrappy guys that looks like he plays hard all the time. The error a few nights ago was pretty brutal though. Sad to see that the numbers show he's been so bad.

[Krylian]

That's not Montoyo's job.

 

Those are two separate disappointments from DigiRock.

 

1. Montoyo is sucking

2. The outfield is sucking

[BlueRocky]

Wow, would not have guessed that. I've been talking kindly about McKinney, he's one of those scrappy guys that looks like he plays hard all the time. The error a few nights ago was pretty brutal though. Sad to see that the numbers show he's been so bad.

 

He’s quietly put together a 55 wRC+, that’s pretty tough to do considering how much Pillar got hammered for his 82-89 wRC+ seasons. McKinney was basically replacement level last year in 38 games between two teams, with negative value defensively.

 

But to be fair the whole lineup had a rough start in April and this is his first real look up in the big leagues. But he’s not really making a case for himself so far.

 

If Anthony Alford was even half decent, the doors would be wide open for him. Unfortunately.. nope. Jonathan Davis has a hot start in AAA, but he’s a very limited offensive player—basically a 4th OF type with some speed and a glove. There’s a little bit of pop there but he looks like a below average bat to me until proven otherwise, I’ve been following him with the junior trio since double-A

 

Kudos for a hot start in 10 games .357/.538/.679 in Buffalo. At some point he might get a shot to replace Brito as our speedy glove guy off the bench.

Edited May 3, 2019 by BlueRocky