General 2019 Blue Jays Discussion Thread

[Dick_Pole]

Guys the Jays have literally a 0.00000% chance of signing Cole or anyone else of note instead of the 3.3333% chance any team has signing of any player because a bad contract was signed 15 years ago under Godfrey and which AA got out of so the team actually got a pretty good deal on the player and Rogers is firing s***** celebrities from their TV programming.

[glory]

So 7/238 would be their initial asking price you think? That seems about right for the reasons you said, if so.

 

That might be what they are looking for. But I'm not sure that would even be enough. Forget money, taxes, location, etc. The Jays are one of the worst teams in baseball this year. They'll have to not only offer the most but likely blow everyone else out of the water. They signed Burnett largely because they tacked on a 5th year if I recall, and no one else was doing so. Same with BJ Ryan. Same with Martin. They guaranteed a 2nd year (with a vesting option) to get Frank Thomas. They can sign FA's, but they'll have to go where no one else is willing to go.

 

Harper got 13/330 largely because Stanton got 13/325. Boras wants to beat previous records. What that means for his asking price for Cole is anyone's guess.

[BTS]

No, I mean give him more than Price's deal OR more AAV on a six year deal than what Greinke got (not both), but I'm not sure that would even be enough. Forget money, taxes, location, etc. The Jays are one of the worst teams in baseball this year. They'll have to not only offer the most but likely blow everyone else out of the water. They signed Burnett largely because they tacked on a 5th year if I recall, and no one else was doing so. Same with BJ Ryan. Same with Martin. They guaranteed a 2nd year (with a vesting option) to get Frank Thomas. They can sign FA's, but they'll have to go where no one else is willing to go.

 

That's generally always the case though. I'm guessing the Red Sox were the top bidders on Price/Eovaldi/JDM etc... The Astros for Brantley. The Yankees for Chapman. Top players tend to join top teams, but they're not generally leaving money on the table to do it. Maybe Cole wouldn't even entertain a 7/220 offer from Toronto, but I suspect they'd get his attention real quick if they started floating ideas like that around.

[Spanky99]

No, I mean give him more than Price's deal OR more AAV on a six year deal than what Greinke got. Or maybe 6/218 so he would beat Price's total deal and Greinke's AAV. But I'm not sure that would even be enough. Forget money, taxes, location, etc. The Jays are one of the worst teams in baseball this year. They'll have to not only offer the most but likely blow everyone else out of the water. They signed Burnett largely because they tacked on a 5th year if I recall, and no one else was doing so. Same with BJ Ryan. Same with Martin. They guaranteed a 2nd year (with a vesting option) to get Frank Thomas. They can sign FA's, but they'll have to go where no one else is willing to go.

 

Those team's have room to take on 34 AAV??? I guess Houston might.

[glory]

That's generally always the case though. I'm guessing the Red Sox were the top bidders on Price/Eovaldi/JDM etc... The Astros for Brantley. The Yankees for Chapman. Top players tend to join top teams, but they're not generally leaving money on the table to do it. Maybe Cole wouldn't even entertain a 7/220 offer from Toronto, but I suspect they'd get his attention real quick if they started floating ideas like that around.

 

That's all likely true, but the gap between the Yankees and the next highest bidder may not have to be as wide as the Jays and the next highest. The one advantage with Cole is that he's a Boras guy, and Boras guys would sign in Siberia as long as they got the most money from them, but I would think winning situation, location, etc, plays a significant role for everyone to some degree.

[Bobthe4th]

The issue isn't whether we can afford to offer whatever Cole wants (in theory we can). It's that outbidding everyone else (which is what it would take to get him to even consider joining us right now) is so far from Shatkins' ethos that it's crazy to even dream about.

[Boxcar]

Guys the Jays have literally a 0.00000% chance of signing Cole or anyone else of note instead of the 3.3333% chance any team has signing of any player because a bad contract was signed 15 years ago under Godfrey and which AA got out of so the team actually got a pretty good deal on the player and Rogers is firing s***** celebrities from their TV programming.

 

What were the odds of signing Roger Clemens?

[Brownie19]

The issue isn't whether we can afford to offer whatever Cole wants (in theory we can). It's that outbidding everyone else (which is what it would take to get him to even consider joining us right now) is so far from Shatkins' ethos that it's crazy to even dream about.

 

This s*** isn't true. We all would have said that about AA before he traded the farm for Reyes, Johnson, Dickey, etc. and signed Martin. AA was widely viewed as a guy who's mandate was to reduce payroll and rebuild the farm system - and he did that - right up until he decided not to and went all in.

 

We've had VERY recent experience with a GM who's able to have multiple approaches based on where the team is on the win curve (or some potential other reasons). Why is it so hard to fathom that our current FO might be capable of doing the same?

[glory]

The issue isn't whether we can afford to offer whatever Cole wants (in theory we can). It's that outbidding everyone else (which is what it would take to get him to even consider joining us right now) is so far from Shatkins' ethos that it's crazy to even dream about.

 

Yeah, it’s not a question of whether the Jays can afford a $35M AAV player, they definitely can. It’s whether they’d be willing to get into a bidding war that will likely lead to the biggest contract ever given to a pitcher in MLB history. That doesn’t seem like Shatkins at all. That’s not even factoring whether Cole would even want to come here, although I’m sure he has a price.

[Brownie19]

That might be what they are looking for. But I'm not sure that would even be enough. Forget money, taxes, location, etc. The Jays are one of the worst teams in baseball this year. They'll have to not only offer the most but likely blow everyone else out of the water. They signed Burnett largely because they tacked on a 5th year if I recall, and no one else was doing so. Same with BJ Ryan. Same with Martin. They guaranteed a 2nd year (with a vesting option) to get Frank Thomas. They can sign FA's, but they'll have to go where no one else is willing to go.

 

Harper got 13/330 largely because Stanton got 13/325. Boras wants to beat previous records. What that means for his asking price for Cole is anyone's guess.

 

So were the Padres and they got Machado. The Phillies were s*** from 2013 to 2017 and got Harper.

[Spanky99]

What were the odds of signing Roger Clemens?

 

He's making fun of Krylian's post, meat?

[Boxcar]

That's all likely true, but the gap between the Yankees and the next highest bidder may not have to be as wide as the Jays and the next highest. The one advantage with Cole is that he's a Boras guy, and Boras guys would sign in Siberia as long as they got the most money from them, but I would think winning situation, location, etc, plays a significant role for everyone to some degree.

 

At the end of the day, it will be Cole's choice. This team just feels a lot like the 2014 Cubs and you'd have to think that would be enticing for anyone. You have a great offense already in place, 3 legacy players (4 counting Gurriel) with tons of control, plenty of payroll space and a beatable Red Sox team.

 

We also don't really know if Cole is anti-Canada. Chances are, we won't land him but I'll be disappointed if we aren't a frontrunner. Cole and Roark would get us extremely close to a playoff team. Sign Moustakas for third and that's playoffs.

[glory]

So were the Padres and they got Machado. The Phillies were s*** from 2013 to 2017 and got Harper.

 

Sure but I’m sure the second highest offer for Machado was significantly less than what he signed for. Same with Harper.

 

Cole is not going to take less money to sign with a good team or a team in the US, but I think the gap between the Jays and the 2nd best offer he gets would have to be pretty significant.

[Boxcar]

He's making fun of Krylian's post, meat?

 

I read the first two lines.

 

Ooooooooops. Direct that at Krylian, then. Thanks for the catch, Spank.

[Boxcar]

Sure but I’m sure the second highest offer for Machado was significantly less than what he signed for. Same with Harper.

 

Cole is not going to take less money to sign with a good team or a team in the US, but I think the gap between the Jays and the 2nd best offer he gets would have to be pretty significant.

 

Wouldn't that depend on the second team? Like Jays vs. White Sox, you think the difference would need to be huge?

[Spanky99]

The issue isn't whether we can afford to offer whatever Cole wants (in theory we can). It's that outbidding everyone else (which is what it would take to get him to even consider joining us right now) is so far from Shatkins' ethos that it's crazy to even dream about.

 

Oh f*** off, can you get anymore cynical? How would you know?

[Boxcar]

Oh f*** off, can you get anymore cynical? How would you know?

 

(He doesn't know anything Spank, just nod and keep walking along)

[glory]

Wouldn't that depend on the second team? Like Jays vs. White Sox, you think the difference would need to be huge?

 

If it's two teams in a similar spot, and Cole is not anti-Canada, then maybe it wouldn't need to be as big of a difference. But if he's getting record breaking 7 year offers from LA, NY, Houston, etc, then the Jays can't simply offer a little bit more. They'd have to go above and beyond. I remember reading that the Yankees offer to Machado was something like $220m. The Padres had to give him $300m.

 

The Jays can definitely sign Cole but they'd have to give a crazy offer. I'll concede that we don't know how Shapiro would act in a big(ger) market situation, so maybe he would spend on an elite FA if he had the resources (which he didn't in Cleveland), but I'm not sure he'd want to come close to the territory that Cole will be in.

[Bobthe4th]

If it's two teams in a similar spot, and Cole is not anti-Canada, then maybe it wouldn't need to be as big of a difference. But if he's getting record breaking 7 year offers from LA, NY, Houston, etc, then the Jays can't simply offer a little bit more. They'd have to go above and beyond. I remember reading that the Yankees offer to Machado was something like $220m. The Padres had to give him $300m.

 

The Jays can definitely sign Cole but they'd have to give a crazy offer. I'll concede that we don't know how Shapiro would act in a big(ger) market situation, so maybe he would spend on an elite FA if he had the resources (which he didn't in Cleveland), but I'm not sure he'd want to come close to the territory that Cole will be in.

 

I'm not convinced Shapiro would be interested anyway, but as you say we don't know for sure. But interested when we are a minimum of a year away from competing (and that's if a lot goes right and we also acquire more than just Cole)? No chance.

[Krylian]

What were the odds of signing Roger Clemens?

 

Clemens was perceived to be past his prime at the time, and was signed to one of the richest deals in baseball iirc. I also think this was before Rogers took over.

 

Look. It could happen. Anything is theoretically possible. I just don't see it. As least not this offseason. Maybe when they're serious contenders again.

[Spanky99]

I'm not convinced Shapiro would be interested anyway, but as you say we don't know for sure. But interested when we are a minimum of a year away from competing (and that's if a lot goes right and we also acquire more than just Cole)? No chance.

 

Getting Cole now is a move for the future, have you seen the upcoming FA's in years after, not pretty. This move would add an Ace to this core anyway you look at it, if it means getting more, so be it. You don't know, bro. When and how they add to the core can happen over a few years.

[Boxcar]

Clemens was perceived to be past his prime at the time, and was signed to one of the richest deals in baseball iirc. I also think this was before Rogers took over.

 

Look. It could happen. Anything is theoretically possible. I just don't see it. As least not this offseason. Maybe when they're serious contenders again.

 

When our next podcast goes up, take a listen to my soothing voice as I make a case for the 2020 Jays based on numbers.

[Jimcanuck]

At the end of the day, it will be Cole's choice. This team just feels a lot like the 2014 Cubs and you'd have to think that would be enticing for anyone. You have a great offense already in place, 3 legacy players (4 counting Gurriel) with tons of control, plenty of payroll space and a beatable Red Sox team.

 

We also don't really know if Cole is anti-Canada. Chances are, we won't land him but I'll be disappointed if we aren't a frontrunner. Cole and Roark would get us extremely close to a playoff team. Sign Moustakas for third and that's playoffs.

 

Cole, Roark, Moose = playoffs?

 

Ridiculous.

[Spanky99]

Cole, Roark, Moose = playoffs?

 

Ridiculous.

 

You don't rebuild in a year, so when do you start, what's the model, Jim?

 

RIDICULOUS!

[Spanky99]

I'm in on any SP signing but I think the best value is Wheeler, if we're talking non Cole targets. Top 10 in WAR over the last 2 years with 8.7. His pitching coach is 90 years old and his catcher is the worst framer in the league.

 

I think there's even another gear there potentially.

 

There's lots of decent targets this season, Jays need to sign two of them.

[AintNoThang]

Gerrit Cole is going to be 30 next year, going to be 35, 5 years later, and 40, 5 years after that. And so on and so forth. Hard pass!

[Brownie19]

Gerrit Cole is going to be 30 next year, going to be 35, 5 years later, and 40, 5 years after that. And so on and so forth. Hard pass!

 

That's an excellent point. He is going to get older every year.

Edited September 25, 2019 by Brownie19

[Todd Van Anus]

Gerrit Cole is going to be 30 next year, going to be 35, 5 years later, and 40, 5 years after that. And so on and so forth. Hard pass!

 

So sign him to a 5 year contract. I'd go $40 million per season.

[Todd Van Anus]

That's an excellent point. He is going to get older every year.

Yes, because all other pitchers get younger every year

[bones10]

Interesting discussion guys, and yeah I doubt he would ultimately sign here. However I still think it would be a relief to hear that the Jays were in on him heavy, would let us know that the FO is at least willing to try and sign big name free agents as the team progresses to hopefully contenders.