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Bobthe4th

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Daniel Labude Toronto Blue Jays

Daniel Labude

Jays Centre Contributor
Posted
Posted
Currently our depth chart for SP looks like the following:

 

1. Stroman

2. Sanchez

3. Borucki

4. Shoemaker

5. Richard

 

Do we end up signing another vetern starter? Or are we going to roll with this?

 

It's not a great rotation...but if everyone plays up to their potential...it could be an above average rotation imo

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Boxcar All-Star

Boxcar

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
It's not a great rotation...but if everyone plays up to their potential...it could be an above average rotation imo

 

There is no way in hell that this will end up being above average.

Spanky99 GOAT

Spanky99

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
It's not a great rotation...but if everyone plays up to their potential...it could be an above average rotation imo

 

Stroman - https://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=13431&position=P

 

Sanchez - https://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=11490&position=P

 

Borucki - https://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=16350&position=P

 

Shoemaker - https://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=4776&position=P

 

Richard - https://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=3551&position=P

 

That rotation projection... lol

Krylian MVP

Krylian

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted

 

Sure looks like an almost .500 team to me.

Spanky99 GOAT

Spanky99

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted (edited)
Sure looks like an almost .500 team to me.

 

:confused: Their projection is at 77 wins. I think that's a bit high, who knows... ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Edited by Spanky99
Daniel Labude Toronto Blue Jays

Daniel Labude

Jays Centre Contributor
Posted
Posted

 

The projections are not good for sure, but if they beat those projections, not by a lot but some....then the rotation moves from not very good to average and if Stroman and Sanchez get back to All Star form, it can move to above average imo. Is it probable based on last years stats, no. Given how each has performed in the past though there is some chance of it happening though. I believe it will happen this year. They all put it together

Laika Cooperstown

Laika

Community Moderator
Posted
Posted
:confused: Their projection is at 77 wins. I think that's a bit high, who knows... ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

 

77 wins is also like 2 games better than picking 8th overall in 2020.

 

Projected tiers:

 

ELITE - Yankees, Astros, Red Sox

GREAT - Dodgers, Indians, Nationals

GOOD - Cubs, Cardinals, Rays, Mets, Angels

.500-ISH - Twins, Rockies, Athletics, Braves, Pirates, Phillies, Brewers, D-Backs, Reds

BAD - Blue Jays, Giants, Padres

s*** - Mariners, Rangers, Royals, White Sox, Tigers, Marlins

ORIOLES - Orioles

Ehjays First Round Pick

Ehjays

Verified Member
Posted
Posted
77 wins is also like 2 games better than picking 8th overall in 2020.

 

Projected tiers:

 

ELITE - Yankees, Astros, Red Sox

GREAT - Dodgers, Indians, Nationals

GOOD - Cubs, Cardinals, Rays, Mets, Angels

.500-ISH - Twins, Rockies, Athletics, Braves, Pirates, Phillies, Brewers, D-Backs, Reds

BAD - Blue Jays, Giants, Padres

s*** - Mariners, Rangers, Royals, White Sox, Tigers, Marlins

ORIOLES - Orioles

 

LOL at Orioles fans, even if they improve they would still be in the s*** category

Laika Cooperstown

Laika

Community Moderator
Posted
Posted
I think you should shift the D-Backs down into the s*** category....sans Goldy, Pollock and Corbin - they gonna suck.

 

They are only projected for 2 more wins than Toronto. Just have to draw the tier lines somewhere.

 

Greinke, Ray, Godley, Weaver is a very enviable top 4. They'll also have Walker back mid-season. Toronto has a better set of position players though.

 

Toronto in that division might project for more wins than them tbh

Brownie19 New Hampshire Fisher Cats

Brownie19

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
They are only projected for 2 more wins than Toronto. Just have to draw the tier lines somewhere.

 

Greinke, Ray, Godley, Weaver is a very enviable top 4. They'll also have Walker back mid-season. Toronto has a better set of position players though.

 

Toronto in that division might project for more wins than them tbh

 

That's fair. We'll see if they finish this offseason with Ray on their team.

TheHurl Toronto Blue Jays

TheHurl

Site Manager
Posted
Posted
That's fair. We'll see if they finish this offseason with Ray on their team.

 

I can see the NL being similar to last year where no team hovering near .500 are out of it

Krylian MVP

Krylian

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
It's not a great rotation...but if everyone plays up to their potential...it could be an above average rotation imo

 

How often does everyone in a rotation play up to their potential? Not often.

 

That said, I agree with Boxy...no way in f*** does this rotation turn into anything other than bad to mediocre (as a whole). Possibly a couple of solid individual contributions, but overall, it's gonna be a long season.

Krylian MVP

Krylian

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
:confused: Their projection is at 77 wins. I think that's a bit high, who knows... ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

 

It's high. It's quite high. I'd be surprised if they got 70 wins.

Krylian MVP

Krylian

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
77 wins is also like 2 games better than picking 8th overall in 2020.

 

Projected tiers:

 

ELITE - Yankees, Astros, Red Sox

GREAT - Dodgers, Indians, Nationals

GOOD - Cubs, Cardinals, Rays, Mets, Angels

.500-ISH - Twins, Rockies, Athletics, Braves, Pirates, Phillies, Brewers, D-Backs, Reds

BAD - Blue Jays, Giants, Padres

s*** - Mariners, Rangers, Royals, White Sox, Tigers, Marlins

ORIOLES - Orioles

 

I think the Jays are s***.

Laika Cooperstown

Laika

Community Moderator
Posted
Posted
I think the Jays are s***.

 

They will probably trend towards s*** as they trade players and generally won't care about winning.

 

Could say the opposite about a team like the Phillies or Reds, who don't project to be much better but even if they are .500 they will be buying.

Ray FCL Blue Jays

Ray

Verified Member
Posted
Posted

I'm just going to say that I'm a lot more optimistic about this team than most on here:

 

Position Players:

 

C: Don't look now, but Danny Jansen is expected to be a Top 10 catcher in the bigs next year by Steamer and I expect that to come true now that he won't split time with Martin. Beyond that, Maile is fine as a backup. McGuire isn't a bad guy to have stashed away in AAA.

 

1B: Smoak should produce a solid 2 WAR there and play every day. Not much more you can ask for there. Maybe Tellez comes up again, but I highly doubt he sustains anything close to what he did in Sept.

 

2B: Yet to be seen what happens here. Injuries have derailed Travis, though there may still be something there. Drury is a good option here as well. Eric Sogard could have a good spring. Biggio or Bichette may get called up before long as well.

 

SS: Let the kids play! Said to death, but Statcast and projection systems loves Gurriel. I don't expect him to be a star there next season, but so long as he's not terrible defensively, he should produce surplus value. He's proven he can hit major league pitching. Again, Bichette may get the call here later in the season as well which may shift Gurriel to 2nd.

 

3B: Vladimir Guerrero Jr, a 19 year old who's never seen a major league pitch is expected by Steamer (a very conservative projection system) to put up 4.7 fWAR next season. I really don't think that's unrealistic. Even if he puts up 3-4 fWAR, that'd be a huge win. The kid has hit whereever he's been without skipping a beat, and I expect that to continue in the major leagues.

 

RF: Grichuk should provide 2 WAR as a floor given his defense and baserunning. Hopefully he stays healthy.

 

CF: I hate watching Pillar at the plate, but he too should provide 2 WAR at least with his defense and baserunning

 

LF: One of Hernandez/Alford/McKinney/Smith Jr should be good enough for an everyday role, right?

 

DH: Morales is what he is. Not expecting much on the field, but he'll provide value off the field to all the young guns.

 

Rotation:

 

Stroman may not be as good as his 2017, but he's also no where near as bad as his 2018. I expect him to settle down with a high 3's ERA. Nothing special, but a solid 2-3 WAR

 

Gamblers fallacy, but eventually after going through so many injuries, Aaron Sanchez has to pitch a full healthy season, right? I'd be fine with a ~4 ERA with him, assuming he pitches a full season. Same could be said about Matt Shoemaker.

 

Ryan Borucki should fill that mid-rotation spot fine.

 

Clayton Richard is ass, but beyond that we have Sean Reid-Foley, Julian Merryweather, Thomas Pannone, Sam Gaviglio, Trent Thornton, TJ Zeuch, and Jacob Waguespeck sitting in AAA. Statistically speaking, with all the arms that we've compiled, we'd have to be extremely unlucky to not have alteast 1 of them break out to be a viable major league starter.

 

Bullpen:

 

- Ken Giles: Nowhere near as bad as his 4.65 ERA would suggest (3.08 FIP, 3.27 xFIP). Had some bad luck with HR's. Good chance he may trend closer towards what he was in 2017.

 

- Ryan Tepera: Coming off a 1.3 WAR season, should produce another mid 3's ERA season like he's given us the last couple seasons.

 

- Tim Mayza: Someone just wrote a good article on him at the Radio Scouts blog, but he could be a bullpen breakout candidate with his fastball/slider combo, especially if he's only used against lefties.

 

- Danny Barnes: Again, he had some batted ball luck and should be better than the near 6 ERA he put up.

 

- David Phelps: First off, what a fantastic signing by this front office to get a guy like Phelps who as a reliever has had a 3.33 career ERA and 10.4 K/9 (compared to the 7 he put up as a starter). He could really be another one of those former starters who couldn't quite put it together and becomes dominant out of the pen. He's got the starters pitch mix to get out both lefties and righties that'll play up out of the pen. I'm really looking forward to seeing how he does. Only downside is he's returning from TJ, but we've seen plenty of arms come back just fine.

 

- David Paulino: Good results in very limited action last Sept. I can't find the whiff and swing rate on his changeup (if anyone can, let me know), but watching all his outings last season, that changeup looked lethal out of the pen. At the very least, a promising arm at the back of the pen.

 

- Luciano: Doubt he'll be used unless we're winning a blowout. I'm not expecting him to be used much at all next season.

 

- Biagini: Meh, might be used out of the pen. If he's good fine. If not, option him to Buffalo and get another arm up. No big deal.

 

Not a lot of black holes anywhere, but there is some uncertainty with some new position players and that rotation. At the very least, the rotation has a lot of options in AAA.

 

Beyond that, is it unrealistic to tack on 2-3 wins between all the coaching additions we've added? Charlie Montoyo is going to be a very hands on manager compared to Gibby who just let the veterens do their thing. The front office has said they're going to be focusing a lot more on shifting as well. New major league coaching staff that seems to be more analytics driven. Sometimes, teams end up having a rising tide effect when 1 superstar joins the teams that effects the rest team positively and gets them to play up (Kris Bryant 2015, Ronald Acuna 2018).

 

And of course, most importantly adding Carson Cistulli (at least 1 win right there). I'm not expecting them to be competitive, but I'll say they hover around .500 next season.

Spanky99 GOAT

Spanky99

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
...

 

It would have to go "ALL RIGHT", man... I had hope two months ago, not anymore, it's a tank and moving assets at the deadline, nothing more.

Krylian MVP

Krylian

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
We probably have the hardest schedule in baseball which is going to make us look a few wins worse than we are too.

 

The Orioles have the hardest schedule in baseball cause they don't get to face the Orioles.

43211234 FCL Blue Jays

43211234

Verified Member
Posted
Posted

 

David Paulino: Good results in very limited action last Sept. I can't find the whiff and swing rate on his changeup (if anyone can, let me know), but watching all his outings last season, that changeup looked lethal out of the pen. At the very least, a promising arm at the back of the pen.

 

 

24.24% whiff rate on the 33 changeups he threw. The swing rate on the changeup was 72.73%: http://www.brooksbaseball.net/outcome.php?player=600944&b_hand=-1&gFilt=&pFilt=FA|SI|FC|CU|SL|CS|KN|CH|FS|SB&time=month&minmax=ci&var=whiff&s_type=2&startDate=03/30/2007&endDate=01/16/2019

 

 

I'm really looking forward to see what Paulino does

 

 

 

The fact that you your post gets deleted when you try to edit on mobile is so annoying

Terminator All-Star

Terminator

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
The Orioles have the hardest schedule in baseball cause they don't get to face the Orioles.

 

Woops, of course. Same schedule as ours for the most part only they have to play us instead of us playing them. But other than those shitbags I think we have the hardest.

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