MLB 2019 Draft

[glory]

I hate pitching prospects. Draft hitters and then trade expendable prospect capital for pitching (or sign them).

[Todd]

You may be right on that but even the jays general manager says team is weak at pitching and outfield prospects.

But will have to wait 5 or 6 weeks before the draft to see what happens. But can say one thing about blue jay and leafs fans

first thing out of they mouths is always trade the prospects.

[TheHurl]

No one drafts in the MLB based on needs.

 

Someone like Driveline needs to set up the equivalent of the combine for high school draft prospects. Data driven, televised on MLB Network and sponsored through the ass to be highly profitable.

[Slade]

BA updated mocked draft.

 

11

Tor

Brett Baty

Lake Travis (Austin) HS 3B

Notes:

Toronto has been in to see Lakeside (Seattle) High outfielder Corbin Carroll quite a bit this spring, but they’ve also lately had some heat in to bear down on Lake Travis (Austin) High third baseman Brett Baty. While the two are vastly different prospects, they are the best prep bats on the board here. Last year the Blue Jays popped Texas-based prep shortstop Jordan Groshans and signed him under slot at No. 12 and they could do something similar this year with Baty, who will get Nolan Gorman comps but will also get dinged by draft models that punish older players.

[BlueRocky]

Ben Badler lurks BJMB confirmed

[Ray]

BA updated mocked draft.

 

11

Tor

Brett Baty

Lake Travis (Austin) HS 3B

Notes:

Toronto has been in to see Lakeside (Seattle) High outfielder Corbin Carroll quite a bit this spring, but they’ve also lately had some heat in to bear down on Lake Travis (Austin) High third baseman Brett Baty. While the two are vastly different prospects, they are the best prep bats on the board here. Last year the Blue Jays popped Texas-based prep shortstop Jordan Groshans and signed him under slot at No. 12 and they could do something similar this year with Baty, who will get Nolan Gorman comps but will also get dinged by draft models that punish older players.

 

Baty over Carroll for me personally. The more I see him, the the more I like.

 

If you think he can hit, his age should be a plus imo. You can start moving him through the minors quicker.

[tbad]

Unfortunately for y'all I have nothing to add to this thread

[BlueRocky]

Baty’s age isn’t that big of a deal if his bat is legit. The risk is that HS competition isn’t a great sample since he’s older than his competition, which might not be indicative of his real hitting ability. The question mark becomes how he’ll handle A ball when he’s playing against college kids and wooden bats.

 

Carroll’s size also shouldn’t make or break his career, an 18 yr old at 5-10 isn’t a midget. The kid is a teenager and will grow out that frame by the time he reaches the majors. If his bat is real, actually elite at CF, and the foot speed is real.. that’s a blue chip prospect we can get behind in a system thin on OF talent.

 

I feel like if he was 2 inches taller and weighed 180-200lbs scouts would be raving like they do with Bobby Witt jr and CJ Abrams. At the very least he would get the hype Jared Kelenic did last year before the draft. Even with the nitpick of his size, he’s been considered a top 10 pick in most mocks throughout the whole year.

 

Here’s the BA write up on Corbin Carroll:

 

Ht: 5-10 | Wt: 160 | B-T: L-L

Commit/Drafted: UCLA

Scouting Report: Carroll established himself as one of the best pure bats in the class over the summer after dominating at the plate in every high-profile event he attended. The 5-foot-9, 165-pound outfielder has a quick, balanced swing and a terrific feel for the barrel, as well as a keen understanding of the strike zone and a patient approach in the lefthanded batter’s box. Carroll is more than willing to take a walk and then cause havoc on the bases as a plus runner, but he also has sneaky pop in his bat that allows him to hit for extra bases. Defensively, Carroll projects to stick in center field and be a solid defender there. Add everything up and there are no real holes in Carroll’s game—unless you want to nitpick his size. He is committed to UCLA.

[/Quote]

 

We’ve previously had Carroll as high as No. 6. That’s starting to seem too rich, though through no fault of his play this spring. He’s hit exactly as expected. It’s more a case of Carroll’s size being questioned, at least when compared to some of the players who seem more safely in the top 10 range at the moment. Carroll should garner interest throughout the teens and the Mets specifically have higher-level decision makers going in to get looks.

[/Quote]

 

That said, if we pick Baty and he’s anything close to Nolan Gorman I’ll be ecstatic.

Edited May 4, 2019 by BlueRocky

[Krylian]

BA updated mocked draft.

 

11

Tor

Brett Baty

Lake Travis (Austin) HS 3B

Notes:

Toronto has been in to see Lakeside (Seattle) High outfielder Corbin Carroll quite a bit this spring, but they’ve also lately had some heat in to bear down on Lake Travis (Austin) High third baseman Brett Baty. While the two are vastly different prospects, they are the best prep bats on the board here. Last year the Blue Jays popped Texas-based prep shortstop Jordan Groshans and signed him under slot at No. 12 and they could do something similar this year with Baty, who will get Nolan Gorman comps but will also get dinged by draft models that punish older players.

 

Why is he older? Is he a dummy that failed?

[Brownie19]

Benintendi's 5'10 180 lbs.

 

Did they hold Baty back like they do with HS football players?

[baubau]

MLB.com has their top 100 out.

 

http://m.mlb.com/prospects/2019?list=draft

 

I know their rankings don't mean much and profile isn't always accurate, but for free content it is pretty good overall.

 

Edit: Also have a mock draft up with us taking Jackson Rutledge (RHP)

 

"The best junior college prospect since Bryce Harper went No. 1 overall in 2010, Rutledge has some of the most overpowering stuff in the Draft and tops national juco pitchers in ERA (0.93) and ranks second in strikeouts (123 in 77 2/3 innings)."

 

 

https://www.mlb.com/news/mlb-pipeline-s-first-2019-mock-draft?t=mlb-pipeline-coverage

[TheOutsider]

So I was looking at the college stats for hitters, which to me seem to have the most predictive value (still not a lot), and I was surprised by the high K-rates the most highly rated college hitters seem to be sporting.

 

Some junior year stats for reference:

 

Michael Conforto - 13.97 K%, .202 ISO

Kris Bryant - 14.57 K%, .491 ISO

Kyle Schwarber - 10.71 K%, .301 ISO

Hunter Renfroe - 14.14 K%, .275 ISO

Ian Happ - 19.44 K%, .303 ISO

Corey Ray - 13.14 K%, .235 ISO

Aaron Judge - 21.54 K%, .286 ISO

 

That's 'reverse cherrypicked' to exclude sub-10 K% hitters like Benintendi, Bregman, Senzel, Adam Haseley and Trea Turner.

 

Now this year's crop:

Andrew Vaugh - 14.05 K%, .312 ISO

J.J. Bleday - 18.52 K%, .413 ISO

Hunter Bishop - 19.43 K%, .446 ISO

Bryson Stott - 14.04 K%, .287 ISO

Josh Jung - 15.27 K%, .254 ISO

Shea Langeliers - 13.82 K%, .169 ISO

Kameron Misner - 21.52 K%, .226 ISO

Will Wilson - 19.27 K%, .324 ISO

 

All stats from http://www.thebaseballcube.com

 

No Bregmans/Benintendis doesn't mean the crop is without talent of course, but I wonder if these guys can make enough contact as a pro. Lots of power, lots of swing and miss in this draft.

[jmomcc]

Baty’s age isn’t the big of a deal if his bat is legit. The risk is that HS competition isn’t a great sample since he’s older than his competition, which might not be indicative of his real hitting ability. The question mark becomes how he’ll handle A ball when he’s playing against college kids and wooden bats.

 

Carroll’s size also shouldn’t make or break his career, an 18 yr old at 5-10 isn’t a midget. The kid is a teenager and will grow out that frame by the time he reaches the majors. If his bat is real, actually elite at CF, and the foot speed is real.. that’s a blue chip prospect we can get behind in system very thin on OF talent.

 

I feel like if he was 2 inches taller and weighed 180-200lbs scouts would be raving like they do with Bobby Witt jr and CJ Abrams. At the very least he would get the hype Jared Kelenic did last year before the draft. Even with the nitpick of his size, he’s been considered a top 10 pick in most mocks throughout the whole year.

 

Here’s the BA write up on Corbin Carroll:

 

 

 

 

 

That said, if we pick Baty and he’s anything close to Nolan Gorman I’ll be ecstatic.

 

I have to say, a guy like Carroll (especially in the juiced ball era) sounds like a great pick.

[Ray]

Keith Law Mock Draft v1

 

The MLB draft starts in just four weeks, which means we're close enough to at least start talking about who might be drafted where. The top 10 or so picks are at least becoming less opaque. I think these are mostly the right names up top, barring some team cutting a well-under-slot deal with someone -- which could very well happen, especially after the top seven -- but my confidence wanes quickly as we go into the second half of the round. I'll update this again in a few weeks and at least one more time beyond that before the draft itself.

 

1. Baltimore Orioles: Adley Rutschman, C, Oregon State

 

I think the O's would take Rutschman or Andrew Vaughn, perhaps taking whichever of the two will sign for less and using the under-slot savings to go over with subsequent picks. It doesn't sound like the O's clearly prefer either player.

 

2. Kansas City Royals: Bobby Witt Jr., SS, Colleyville Heritage High School (TX)

 

It sounds like Witt is the player on top of KC's draft board, which, if true, would mean the college bat the O's don't take slips at least to No. 3.

 

3. Chicago White Sox: Andrew Vaughn, 1B, Cal

 

I've heard Kenny Williams loves prep shortstop C.J. Abrams, but I am not going to bet on the White Sox -- who have been more college-focused in the first round recently -- passing on Vaughn or Rutschman here.

 

4. Miami Marlins: JJ Bleday, OF, Vanderbilt

 

Word is the Marlins' scouting department wants Bleday, a strong college bat with a great track record of performance from a top program, while Derek Jeter and Gary Denbo prefer Abrams.

 

5. Detroit Tigers: Riley Greene, OF, Hagerty HS (Oviedo, FL)

 

I've heard the Tigers most with Greene but also with Alek Manoah and Abrams.

 

6. San Diego Padres: C.J. Abrams, SS, Blessed Trinity Catholic HS (Roswell, GA)

 

Multiple people have told me the Padres want Greene but probably won't get him, at which point they'd either take Abrams or go college, likely Nick Lodolo (who has struggled a little bit of late) or Manoah.

 

7. Cincinnati Reds: Nick Lodolo, LHP, TCU

 

This is probably a best-case scenario for the Reds, who seem like they'll get one of the two top college starters here. I also heard them with Shea Langeliers, but that would have to be well under slot.

 

8. Texas Rangers Corbin Carroll, OF, Lakeside HS (Seattle)

 

The Rangers have been most linked to Carroll and Hunter Bishop, but I've also heard them exploring well under-slot deals here, so this could be a spot for a good prep arm to jump up into the top 10.

 

9. Atlanta Braves: Hunter Bishop, OF, Arizona State

 

Atlanta has been all over Bishop, who has exploded as a junior after two underwhelming years for the Sun Devils. They Braves are also linked to Carroll. I do hear that teams are concerned that Bishop has been striking out more and homering less as the Pac-12 season has progressed.

 

10. San Francisco Giants: Matt Allan, RHP, IMG Academy (Bradenton, FL)

 

Allan is the top prep arm in the class and as such won't come cheaply, but this is about the right spot for him in the draft anyway, and I haven't heard the Giants as much with the college crop.

 

11. Toronto Blue Jays: Alek Manoah, RHP, West Virginia

 

I keep hearing Toronto with college guys (even though its first-rounder from last year, prep infielder Jordan Groshans, is off to a fantastic start in low-A), and if Manoah gets here, that's a huge win.

 

12. New York Mets: Josh Jung, 3B, Texas Tech

 

I think the Mets would take any of the top bats, college or prep, if one fell here, but I'm skeptical any of them gets this far, especially with Toronto right in front looking at the college hitters.

 

13. Minnesota Twins: Jackson Rutledge, RHP, San Jacinto College

 

I've heard the Twins all over the place, including Rutledge, Puerto Rican shortstop Matthew Lugo, and any college hitter with good Trackman data.

 

14. Philadelphia Phillies: Zack Thompson, LHP, Kentucky

 

Thompson has shown top-10-pick stuff this year, but after he missed a lot of 2017 with elbow soreness, he's probably going in the 11-20 range. I've also heard the Phillies with Gunnar Henderson.

 

15. Los Angeles Angels: Daniel Espino, RHP, Georgia Premier Academy (Bulloch Co., GA)

 

Espino was up to 99 last summer, not quite as good this spring, but would fit the Angels' new tendency to go for ceiling with their first picks.

 

16. Arizona Diamondbacks: Matthew Lugo, SS, Carlos Beltran Baseball Academy (Puerto Rico)

 

The Diamondbacks have a slew of extra picks, including another first-rounder, so don't be surprised to see an overdraft here who signs well under slot (which Lugo might be) so they can go over several times with later selections. I've also heard them with Gunnar Henderson and a bunch of prep arms.

 

17. Washington Nationals: Shea Langeliers, C, Baylor

 

The Nats do tend to take well-known players who slipped due to injury, off-field concerns, or bonus demands; Langeliers came into the spring as a potential top-10 pick, but a broken hamate bone has ruined his spring.

 

18. Pittsburgh Pirates: Will Wilson, SS/2B, NC State

 

There's some consensus that Wilson, as one of the better college bats in the second tier, will go right around pick 20.

 

19. St. Louis Cardinals: Gunnar Henderson, SS, John T. Morgan Academy (Selma, AL)

 

They're also one of a few teams in on two-sport star Maurice Hampton, which would fit with their pick last year of Nolan Gorman as a bet on huge tools that has worked out very well so far.

 

20. Seattle Mariners: Bryson Stott, SS, UNLV

 

Stott could go anywhere outside of the top 10, as he's also part of that second tier of college bats along with Wilson and Michael Busch. One weird rumor I picked up while working on this had the Mariners going way over slot for Anthony Volpe, a prep shortstop on the same team as Jack Leiter.

 

21. Atlanta Braves: Brennan Malone, RHP, IMG Academy

 

If the Braves land a college bat at pick No. 9, they could be more free to take their preferred profile of a high school power arm at their regular pick here.

 

22. Tampa Bay Rays: Logan Davidson, SS, Clemson

 

Davidson is a shortstop with above-average power and speed, but he has had issues with contact over the past 12 months; without that he'd be a top-five pick in this draft and represents an upside play down at this spot.

 

23. Colorado Rockies: Kam Misner, OF, Missouri

 

The Rockies are unafraid to take a very toolsy player with performance questions; Misner may have the best mixture of tools in the college class but has struggled with contact this spring.

 

24. Cleveland Indians: Maurice Hampton, OF, Memphis University HS (TN)

 

Hampton is seen as a late first-rounder who has upside due to his athleticism and split focus between baseball and football, similar to Bubba Thompson, taken 26th overall two years ago by the Rangers.

 

25. Los Angeles Dodgers: Brett Baty, 3B/OF, Lake Travis (TX) HS

 

If Baty were 18, he'd go in the top 15 picks, but he'll be past 19 1/2 on draft day and many teams are shying away from him because their draft models factor players' ages (relative to their levels).

 

26. Arizona Diamondbacks: Quinn Priester, RHP, Cary-Grove (IL) HS

 

The Diamondbacks pick 16th, 26th, 33rd, 34th, 56th, 74th, 75th and 93rd in the top 100, so they have a gazillion dollars in their bonus pool and I expect them to go after high-ceiling high school kids with at least three of those high picks. Priester qualifies, and while I can tell you Arizona's scouting director Deric Ladnier was there the day I saw Priester, I've seen Ladnier at a whole lot of games this spring.

 

27. Chicago Cubs: Michael Busch, 1B, UNC

 

Busch could go anywhere anywhere from the mid-teens on as one of the more polished college hitters in the draft, but a guy without any place to play other than first base.

 

28. Milwaukee Brewers: JJ Goss, RHP, Cypress Ranch HS, Houston

 

I personally think Goss should go higher than this, but the industry seems to think he goes in the 21-40 range.

 

29. Oakland Athletics: Kody Hoese, 3B, Tulane

 

Hoese has come on this spring to lead Division 1 in homers after declining to sign last year as a draft-eligible sophomore.

 

30. New York Yankees: George Kirby, RHP, Elon

 

I've heard them with Henderson and also with Rece Hinds, who might have the most raw power in the draft and would fit with their past picks of Aaron Judge and Dante Bichette Jr. in this range of the draft. If Jack Leiter goes in the first round at all, my guess is here.

 

31. Los Angeles Dodgers: Carter Stewart, RHP, Eastern Florida State College

 

The Dodgers have some house money to play with since they have an extra pick, and Stewart was a top-10 pick last year who has fallen more due to regression in his delivery than anything else.

 

32. Houston Astros: Tyler Callihan, IF/C, Providence HS (Jacksonville, FL)

 

Callihan has one of the best pure hit tools anywhere in the draft but lacks a clear position; the Astros have never hesitated to take players like that, including Seth Beer last year and AJ Reed a few years prior.

Edited May 6, 2019 by Ray

[TheHurl]

So I was looking at the college stats for hitters, which to me seem to have the most predictive value (still not a lot), and I was surprised by the high K-rates the most highly rated college hitters seem to be sporting.

 

Some junior year stats for reference:

 

Michael Conforto - 13.97 K%, .202 ISO

Kris Bryant - 14.57 K%, .491 ISO

Kyle Schwarber - 10.71 K%, .301 ISO

Hunter Renfroe - 14.14 K%, .275 ISO

Ian Happ - 19.44 K%, .303 ISO

Corey Ray - 13.14 K%, .235 ISO

Aaron Judge - 21.54 K%, .286 ISO

 

That's 'reverse cherrypicked' to exclude sub-10 K% hitters like Benintendi, Bregman, Senzel, Adam Haseley and Trea Turner.

 

Now this year's crop:

Andrew Vaugh - 14.05 K%, .312 ISO

J.J. Bleday - 18.52 K%, .413 ISO

Hunter Bishop - 19.43 K%, .446 ISO

Bryson Stott - 14.04 K%, .287 ISO

Josh Jung - 15.27 K%, .254 ISO

Shea Langeliers - 13.82 K%, .169 ISO

Kameron Misner - 21.52 K%, .226 ISO

Will Wilson - 19.27 K%, .324 ISO

 

All stats from http://www.thebaseballcube.com

 

No Bregmans/Benintendis doesn't mean the crop is without talent of course, but I wonder if these guys can make enough contact as a pro. Lots of power, lots of swing and miss in this draft.

 

Depends so much on the conferences they play in too. An Ian Happ 19.44% out of Cincinnati and the Big East Conference (Or AAC I can't remember which they were in when Happ went there) isn't the same as Wilson doing it in the ACC or Bleday in the SEC. There are some pay sites that break down stats against Friday Starters and conf play. Sometimes with hitters, despite the even smaller sample size, all more telling to the true talent of the hitters.

 

Hunter Bishop since Pac 10 play started.

 

116 AB

.301 avg

36 k

26 bb (7 IBB)

9 HR

 

Considering he hadn't shown much history as a huge hitter in past seasons, he is guy just based on Stats alone (never seen a State game myself or even a video of him) I would stay away from. For the record he's now hitting .212 against Friday Starters this year. It's a small sample but might say something about his ability to adjust to advanced pitchers.

[Ray]

Adley Rutschman is actually insane

 

42 games

.429/.576/.800

14 HR

14% K-rate

25% BB-rate

 

All in the Pac-12. He might be the clearest 1-1 since Appel.

[Carlos Danger]

I am surprised AA (Atlanta) would go after an OF just two picks prior, before a strong college arm if Manoha is any good. AA's philosophy was always load up with arms and use as a commodity to trade for positions players. At least first pick first round. Then Law has them taking a pitcher with their second pick at 21.... hmmmm..

[TheOutsider]

Depends so much on the conferences they play in too. An Ian Happ 19.44% out of Cincinnati and the Big East Conference (Or AAC I can't remember which they were in when Happ went there) isn't the same as Wilson doing it in the ACC or Bleday in the SEC. There are some pay sites that break down stats against Friday Starters and conf play. Sometimes with hitters, despite the even smaller sample size, all more telling to the true talent of the hitters.

 

Hunter Bishop since Pac 10 play started.

 

116 AB

.301 avg

36 k

26 bb (7 IBB)

9 HR

 

Considering he hadn't shown much history as a huge hitter in past seasons, he is guy just based on Stats alone (never seen a State game myself or even a video of him) I would stay away from. For the record he's now hitting .212 against Friday Starters this year. It's a small sample but might say something about his ability to adjust to advanced pitchers.

 

Very true, I'm not the most knowledgeable about conferences, I know SEC is probably the toughest, with Pac 10 and ACC close behind? Don't know if Big 12 (that's the one with the Texas universities right?) is considered to be at that level. That makes the Happ pick seem even more out of line with Schwarber/Bryant, although those did go significantly higher. I would say if the k-rates are even higher against Friday starters you definitely want to be cautious reading too much into the lofty overall slash line.

[BlueRocky]

https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/2019-mlb-draft-stock-watch-its-a-bad-year-to-covet-pitching/

Relevant article on BA

 

2019 MLB Draft Stock Watch: It's A Bad Year To Covet Pitching

 

By J.J. Cooper

on May 7, 2019

 

This is a very good year to be drafting at the top of the draft. Just don't pick a pitcher.

 

The college and high school bats at the top of this year's draft class are one of the better groups in recent years. There is a standout top prospect in Adley Rutschman, a few other college hitters with track records of success and tools and a number of very interesting high school hitters.

 

Shift over to the pitching class and you struggle to come close to the same comparisons. The college class doesn't have a pitcher who is a clear top-five pick. Nick Lodolo, Alex Manoah, Zack Thompson, Jackson Rutledge and George Kirby are all solid pitching prospects, but they are viewed generally as either back-of-the-rotation starters or pitchers with significant risk to end up as relievers. Lodolo is currently BA's No. 7 prospect and highest-ranked pitcher.

 

Given a choice between drafting this year's sophomores and this year's college juniors, a wide range of scouts said they would prefer to be picking this year's super sophs.

 

"I don't know if there is a college pitcher in this class who projects as better than a No. 4 (starting pitcher)," said one crosschecker.

 

The high school class isn't much better, and it's especially weak in lefties. With this year's pitching class, scouts seem to constantly get a wandering eye, looking at what could have been or what is to come. One scout said he'd prefer the unsigned first-round prep pitching talents from last year's class who went to four-year colleges (J.T. Ginn and Cole Wilcox, as well as Kumar Rocker, a first-round talent who slid because of signability concerns) over the top high school pitchers in this year's class.

 

Normally, there's at least one pitcher in consideration for the No. 1 overall pick. This year, teams picking at No. 3, 4 or 5 struggle to have an arm to consider. Baseball America has been ranking draft classes since 1981. This is the first time we have ever ranked a draft class without one pitcher ranked in our pre-draft top five.

 

This is a great year to draft bats at the top of the draft, and an awful year to covet pitching with a premium pick. Studying past draft history, what that means is it's likely a very dangerous year to try to take a pitcher high in the first round.

 

With no Casey Mize, Brendan McKay or Kyle Wright-type pitcher at the top of the draft to analyze, teams have dug deep to analyze a college pitching class seemingly lacking in safe bets.

 

We know that if past history holds true, teams will be tempted to push pitchers up the board. It's difficult to avoid evaluating pitchers against each other rather than against the standards of past history. If there are no aces to be found, the best future No. 4 starter starts to look pretty good when he's compared to a group of potential No. 5 starters.

 

Whether the class is a great one or an awful one, plenty of pitchers are going to go in the first round. In the 21st century, every first round has included 10 or more pitchers. Any year that there were fewer than 15 first-round pitchers was a significant outlier. In a particularly deep year, as many as 18-20 pitchers are picked in the first round.

 

But when a class seems extremely thin on pitching, it's usually best to draft a bat in the first round.

 

There have been three times in the past 38 years when only five pitchers ranked among the Top 15 in Baseball America's draft rankings. Those years are 1992, 2005 and 2015. Those years also have proven to be among the least productive drafts of the past few decades for pitchers taken in the first round. In 1992, only two of the 14 pitchers selected managed to produce five or more career WAR (wins above replacement). Righthander Rick Helling (20.3 WAR) was the only pitcher to top 10 WAR for his career.

 

If you are looking for the previous worst pitching class since Baseball America began in 1981, you'd likely turn to 2005. In Baseball America's rankings, righthander Mike Pelfrey led the way in the fifth spot. That is the lowest Baseball America has ever ranked the top pitcher until this year. There were also only three pitchers ranked in the top 10 and five in the top 15. Those five pitchers in the BA rankings tied the 2015 draft class for the fewest in the top 15.

 

That 2005 class also holds the record for being the only time in draft history that no pitcher was taken in the top-five picks. That year, Ricky Romero (6th pick), Wade Townsend (8th pick) and Mike Pelfrey (9th pick) were the only three pitchers taken in the Top 10.

 

Teams were wise to skip the pitching in a draft filled with promising hitters. Only three pitchers from the 2005 first round produced five or more career WAR. Matt Garza (12.1 WAR) was the only first-round pitcher who produced better than 10 career WAR. There are 10 position players in the class who have outproduced Garza.

 

That 2015 class looks likely to join the 1992 and 2005 classes in pitching ignominy. As that draft neared, scouts had a hard time getting excited about the crop of pitchers they were scouting.

 

Potential top picks Brady Aiken and Michael Matuella both blew out their elbows. Kolby Allard didn't pitch all season because of a back injury. Nathan Kirby missed the second half of the season with what was described as at the time as a lat injury. He ended up having Tommy John surgery shortly after the draft as well.

 

And Walker Buehler missed time early in the season with a sore elbow. He did return to the mound, but ended up needing Tommy John surgery shortly after the draft.

 

So the pitching class for that draft consisted of a number of ailing arms, a hard-throwing righthander who had one year as a starter (Dillon Tate), a high-effort, 6-foot righthander who was viewed by many as a future reliever (Carson Fulmer) and a lefthanded closer who had started two games in three seasons of college baseball (Tyler Jay).

 

Tate and Fulmer were the only two pitchers among BA's Top 10 that year—which is the only time that has happened in BA's 37 years of ranking draft prospects. Blessed with four years of hindsight, we now know that most teams would have been better off simply passing on the pitching in the first round. Fulmer has ended up as a relatively ineffective reliever. Jay couldn't start. Tate's lack of track record proved to be a legitimate concern. Of the eight college pitchers who were drafted in the first round that year, only Buehler has ended up meeting or exceeding expectations.

 

History shows that it's best not to steer into the skid. This is a good year for bats at the top of the draft and a bad year for arms. When that's the case, it's usually best to pick a hitter.

 

[/Quote]

[Carlos Danger]

I am surprised AA (Atlanta) would go after an OF just two picks prior, before a strong college arm if Manoha is any good. AA's philosophy was always load up with arms and use as a commodity to trade for positions players. At least first pick first round. Then Law has them taking a pitcher with their second pick at 21.... hmmmm..

 

That article BlueRocky posted totally explains the above... Now it all makes sense... Thanks man!

[BlueRocky]

https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/brett-batys-age-likely-to-play-a-role-in-where-he-is-picked/

 

Brett Baty's Age Likely To Play A Role In Where He Is Picked

 

By J.J. Cooper on May 9, 2019

 

Brett Baty is considered one of the best bats in the 2019 draft class. The Lake Travis High (Austin, TX) third baseman consistently makes solid contact and has some of the best power potential among this year’s prep hitters.

 

There is only one problem: Baty is 19. He was born on Nov. 13, 1999. On draft day he’ll be closer to his 20th birthday than his 19th.

 

Baty is the oldest high school player among the 400 players Baseball America has currently ranked. He is older than a few of the junior college players in the draft class, and he’s five months older than the next oldest high school member of the Top 100—righthander Jack Leiter. Shortstop Kyren Paris, the youngest player in the Top 100, is 10 days shy of being two years younger than Baty.

 

There’s little question that Baty’s age does play a role in how he is evaluated. It’s something that almost every scout mentions when discussing Baty. But his natural hitting ability and power potential mean that he’s still likely a middle of the first-round pick (and possibly higher) despite being one of the older high school prospects in recent years.

 

However, there seems to be somewhat of a ceiling for older high school draftees in recent years.

 

There has not been a 19-year-old high school player drafted among the top 15 picks since Josh Booty was the fifth pick of the 1994 draft. Outfielder Blake Rutherford, the 18th pick in the 2016 draft, is the highest drafted 19-year-old this decade. He was considered one of the best hitters among the high school class that year, but his age was something a number of scouts brought up as a concern in his pre-draft evaluations.

 

Here is a look at the 19-year-olds drafted in the first round in the 54-year-history of the draft. The last 19-year-old first-rounder to post 5+ WAR in their career is outfielder Ben Revere, the Twins' first round pick in 2007. Trot Nixon (21.3 WAR) and Mike Lieberthal (15.3 WAR) are only two 19-year-old prep draftees of the past 30 years to post more than 10 WAR.

 

[BlueRocky]

Baseball America just updated their mock draft, ver 6.0

https://www.baseballamerica.com/rankings/mlb-mock-draft/

 

New top 32:

 

1. Adley Rutschman

2. Bobby Witt jr

3. C.J. Abrams

4. Andrew Vaughn

5. Riley Greene

6. JJ Bleday

7. Nick Lodolo

8. Hunter Bishop

9. Shea Langeliers

10. Alek Manoah

11. Bryson Stott

12. Jackson Rutledge

13. Zach Thompson

14. Brennan Malone

15. Keoni Cavaco

16. Corbin Carroll

17. Quinn Priester

18. Logan Davidson

19. Brett Baty

20. Josh Jung

21. Matthew Allan

22. George Kirby

23. Will Wilson

24. Michael Busch

25. Gunnar Henderson

26. JJ Goss

27. Kameron Misner

28. Tommy Henry

29. Seth Johnson

30. Anthony Volpe

31. Brooks Lee

32. Drey Jameson

 

No. 11 Bryson Stott

Nevada-Las Vegas

SS

 

We continue to hear hitters mentioned most frequently with the Blue Jays, on both the high school and college side. There are a few to pick from here, including Stott, the top college shortstop in the class, Carroll, who Toronto has scouted heavily this spring, and Baty, who we mocked to the Blue Jays last week. If the Blue Jays are worried at all about Baty’s age or Carroll’s size, Stott makes the most sense here.

 

Ht: 6-3 | Wt: 195 | B-T: L-R

Commit/Drafted: Never Drafted

Scouting Report: One of the top shortstops in the 2019 class, Stott has hit well in two years with Nevada-Las Vegas in the Mountain West Conference, posting a combined .333 /.405/.474 slash line during his first two years. Stott joined the Collegiate National Team this summer and impressed the coaching staff with his defensive work up the middle, with improved footwork as well as solid body control and accurate throws to the bag. He showed solid feel for the barrel, but scouts were disappointed with the amount of impact Stott generated with an approach that was too frequently slap-heavy. The look raised some concern for his overall offensive package, but Stott does have a solid wood-bat track record outside of Team USA, in both the Cape Cod and Northwoods Summer Leagues.

[Boxcar]

Hopefully BA and the rest can get a few more mock drafts out so that they can have us linked to every first round pick

[TheOutsider]

I feel like Rutledge and Carroll would fit based on what I've read about them, but obviously nobody knows what the Jays' scouting department actually thinks about these guys. Manoah and Stott don't seem like crazy picks, but they don't excite me, personally, if that makes any sense? Are you guys fan of either of these players?

[BlueRocky]

I feel like Rutledge and Carroll would fit based on what I've read about them, but obviously nobody knows what the Jays' scouting department actually thinks about these guys. Manoah and Stott don't seem like crazy picks, but they don't excite me, personally, if that makes any sense? Are you guys fan of either of these players?

 

I can understand if they want to take a gamble on a guy like Rutledge or Malone, but they’d have to really love what they see there.. prep righties are a high risk pick that bust more often than not. Because of the health risks with young arms, and not a lot of data on these 17/18 year olds (mostly beating up on other teenagers), it could be tough to commit 3-4 Million on that young arm. They tend to be expensive as they’ve got leverage of declining your offer and going to college.

 

There’s enormous volatility there as you can get anything from an Aaron Sanchez to a Daniel Norris. A MacKenzie Gore or Forrest Whitley to a Brady Aiken. There’s hundreds of examples of failed high pick pitching prospects or ones that never come close to reaching their ceiling.

 

We’ve been linked to Bryson Stott on several occasions, including an earlier version of BA’s mock draft. It’s easy to see why as the Blue Jays seem to really like middle infield guys that can hit. The college SS pool isn’t particularly amazing this year but Stott would be the best one.

 

I think I would be more excited for this pick if we didn’t already have Bichette, Biggio, Smith, Warmoth, Groshans already brewing in the system. Not that you draft for need, you always get best talent available—but the bar for middle infield has been set pretty high in this farm system. It’s possible Stott could be better than both Smith and Warmoth. But aside from Groshans we also have guys like Miguel Hiraldo, Orelviz Martinez, and Leonardo Jimenez down in rookieball that could be something. You don’t ever want to draft for position but it’s worth considering when you’ve got a goldmine of shortstops and lacking everywhere else.

 

I personally would gravitate towards taking a flyer on Corbin Carroll, unless they really like Brett Baty’s bat. The age thing concerns me a little, but if he’s really that elite of a hitter it won’t matter. The only risk is Baty’s great numbers have been a byproduct of him beating up on younger kids and he would struggle when he plays against college kids in A ball. All you can do is evaluate the tools, the makeup, and see if it’s worth betting on.

 

Now just remember someone always falls every year. If a guy like Hunter Bishop fell on our lap it could be a hard pass. There’s a bit of risk there so it’s possible he falls. But there’s only a handful of guys with those tools in the draft class and mashing in the college scene during his draft year.

Edited May 11, 2019 by BlueRocky

[BlueRocky]

Recent updated mock drafts

 

https://www.mlb.com/news/mock-draft-beginning-to-take-shape

 

Jonathan Mayo has us picking “The Big Unit” Alek Manoah

 

https://www.perfectgame.org/Articles/View.aspx?article=16352

 

PerfectGame.org also has us with Manoah

 

http://baseballprospectjournal.com/2019-mlb-draft-mock-draft-3/

 

These guys have us taking Jackson Rutledge

 

Interesting they all have us leaning towards pitching

[Spanky99]

Recent updated mock drafts

 

https://www.mlb.com/news/mock-draft-beginning-to-take-shape

 

Jonathan Mayo has us picking “The Big Unit” Alek Manoah

 

https://www.perfectgame.org/Articles/View.aspx?article=16352

 

PerfectGame.org also has us with Manoah

 

http://baseballprospectjournal.com/2019-mlb-draft-mock-draft-3/

 

These guys have us taking Jackson Rutledge

 

Interesting they all have us leaning towards pitching

 

Holy crap, just realized that the Rays have 4 picks in the top 42.

[Slade]

Yep now that the Rays are good and seem like they don't miss a beat on talent, all these extra picks are gross.

[Slade]

BA's latest Mock Draft.

 

Bryson Stott

Nevada-Las Vegas SS

Notes:

We continue to hear hitters mentioned most frequently with the Blue Jays, on both the high school and college side. There are a few to pick from here, including Stott, the top college shortstop in the class, Carroll, who Toronto has scouted heavily this spring, and Baty, who we mocked to the Blue Jays last week. If the Blue Jays are worried at all about Baty’s age or Carroll’s size, Stott makes the most sense here.

 

 

 

We've been linked to a college pick multiple times now.

[Spanky99]

BA's latest Mock Draft.

 

Bryson Stott

Nevada-Las Vegas SS

Notes:

We continue to hear hitters mentioned most frequently with the Blue Jays, on both the high school and college side. There are a few to pick from here, including Stott, the top college shortstop in the class, Carroll, who Toronto has scouted heavily this spring, and Baty, who we mocked to the Blue Jays last week. If the Blue Jays are worried at all about Baty’s age or Carroll’s size, Stott makes the most sense here.

 

 

 

We've been linked to a college pick multiple times now.

 

This was posted a couple days ago, few posts above by BlueRocky, mate.