2019 Steamer Projections (thread worthy because Vlad is absurd)

[Jimcanuck]

Huh?

 

indeed. his obsession is going from pathetic to deranged

[Spanky99]

indeed. his obsession is going from pathetic to deranged

 

He's looking at FLD, which has no merit on positional penalty, it's fair to look at that, I guess. DEF metrics suxxxxxxxxxxxx

[Dick_Pole]

I don't follow? It's just projections.

 

Look at what I quoted. Tremendous insights!

[Jimcanuck]

He's looking at FLD, which has no merit on positional penalty, it's fair to look at that, I guess. DEF metrics suxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

agreed. i clearly cant make sense of it

[Dick_Pole]

If they go all in on the youth movement for the position player side and add pieces to the rotation, then it probably still won't be enough to seriously contend, but might make it entertaining all year.

 

Get whatever you can for Smoak/Pillar/Martin/Tulo/Morales, and roll with a position player roster of Vlad (after 3 weeks), Jansen, Grichuk, Drury, Gurriel, Tellez, Hernandez, McKinney, Diaz, Maile, Pompey (if they decide to keep him), and maybe sign/trade for another outfielder to replace Pillar's outfield spot (ex. trade for an arb eligible Grichuk type that another team has given up on, or sign a vet stop gap). Use DH to rotate the young players around.

 

Young players means high variance. They'll need a bunch of things to go right but 2019 is a transition year anyway. Try to be as good as possible so that the timetable is moved up.

 

I really don't get this attitude. So you wish the team to spend its time to try and dump five vets when the league's valuation on these type of players is lower than ever. The end result being Tellez, a marginal prospect, replacing Smoak/Morales. Tulo supplanting no one, because it's unlikely he will play. Maile replacing Martin and mystery new guy replacing Pillar, when Pillar is a perfectly adequate OF in the first place.

 

This seems like A LOT of effort to pay other teams to play/not play players just so the Jays can get marginally younger by giving time to unimportant prospects. Instead of focusing its time on shoring up the pitching staff.

[TheHurl]

Also, would require a team like the Yankees, Red Sox and Rays having bad luck either with injuries, player performances etc.

 

Atlanta was lucky that the Washington Nationals had a down year, Philly faded down the stretch and that the Mets and Marlins sucked.

 

200 Defense Runs Saved difference between Philly and Atlanta. For the Phillies to improve it's much more simple than Atlanta.

[John_Havok]

I really don't get this attitude. So you wish the team to spend its time to try and dump five vets when the league's valuation on these type of players is lower than ever. The end result being Tellez, a marginal prospect, replacing Smoak/Morales. Tulo supplanting no one, because it's unlikely he will play. Maile replacing Martin and mystery new guy replacing Pillar, when Pillar is a perfectly adequate OF in the first place.

 

This seems like A LOT of effort to pay other teams to play/not play players just so the Jays can get marginally younger by giving time to unimportant prospects. Instead of focusing its time on shoring up the pitching staff.

 

Who are you and what have you done with our Dick?

[BlueJayWay]

And then there's this

 

[Pendleton]

[glory]

I really don't get this attitude. So you wish the team to spend its time to try and dump five vets when the league's valuation on these type of players is lower than ever. The end result being Tellez, a marginal prospect, replacing Smoak/Morales. Tulo supplanting no one, because it's unlikely he will play. Maile replacing Martin and mystery new guy replacing Pillar, when Pillar is a perfectly adequate OF in the first place.

 

This seems like A LOT of effort to pay other teams to play/not play players just so the Jays can get marginally younger by giving time to unimportant prospects. Instead of focusing its time on shoring up the pitching staff.

 

Because the Jays need to spend this year finding out who, if anyone, from the current roster can be counted on to be a keeper during the Vlad years. They can't find that out if 4-5 spots are taken up by marginal value vets. It's not about trade value. Marginal vets have little value in today's market, but that doesn't you hoard them just because you can't trade them for something great. Some times opening up a spot for someone else to play is where the value is, even if he is someone I don't particularly care for as a prospect (Tellez, who Shatkins obviously likes as a prospect for some reason). Trading Pillar could also mean signing an outfielder in a pretty good FA market for outfielders, if they chose to go that route. It doesn't have to be all young guys. Or maybe they identify a potential long term piece in a trade somewhere. Either way, this year should be used to see who can be a long term asset.

 

The place to add vets is the rotation because pitching is so unpredictable that the young pitchers will likely get an opportunity anyway (injuries, performance, etc).

Edited November 4, 2018 by glory

[Dick_Pole]

Because the Jays need to spend this year finding out who, if anyone, from the current roster can be counted on to be a keeper during the Vlad years.

 

Maile is not a prospect.

Tulo and Pillar are not supplanting anyone.

So basically your argument is for Tellez. And I think the board has already established that Morales would be someone to trade away if possible.

 

Trading Pillar could also mean signing an outfielder in a pretty good FA market for outfielders, if they chose to go that route. It doesn't have to be all young guys. Or maybe they identify a potential long term piece in a trade somewhere. Either way, this year should be used to see who can be a long term asset.

 

It's not like I'm against trading Pillar, but then you have to find someone better and/or cheaper on the FA market which I don't think is really that easy of a task like you make it out to be.

 

The place to add vets is the rotation because pitching is so unpredictable that the young pitchers will likely get an opportunity anyway (injuries, performance, etc).

 

I agree, but this is the whole thing. The team's TOP priority should be securing starting pitching. I don't know how many miracles you expect from this team, but in your universe it sounds like they need to:

 

1. Dump 5 guys.

2. Pick up 2 SP.

3. Pick up an OF, maybe even a second one now because you created a hole dumping Pillar.

 

So that's 8/9 moves made, before addressing the bullpen, and all done on a budget (maybe down to 6/7 moves if Smoak/Pillar bring in players addressing the other issues). That's a very, very high expectation of the FO for this offseason.

[Dick_Pole]

And then there's this

 

 

It'll be fun watching him in a footrace against Teoscar then know that he'll 100% put up a better BSR than him.

[glory]

Maile is not a prospect.

Tulo and Pillar are not supplanting anyone.

So basically your argument is for Tellez. And I think the board has already established that Morales would be someone to trade away if possible.

 

Maile is not the one you'd be opening up a spot for, it's Jansen. Having Martin as a back up catcher is a waste. He can start somewhere else (on a contender) and doesn't have many more years left in him. Do him a favor and let him start somewhere else rather than back up 50 games on a rebuilding team. I think if enough money is eaten up he could bring back something useful.

 

Pillar is diminishing returns. He's not as good defensively as he used to be but is the same s***** hitter. Eventually that's not going to be a 2 war player, and I'd rather just move on now when maybe he has a tiny bit of value while putting Grichuk at CF. Plus, if Shatkins waited two weeks to call Alford up in Sept for super 2 reasons (as Davidi mentioned) then they probably have plans for him at CF reasonably soon as well.

 

Morales can probably be kept as a bench player, especially if they trade Smoak and hand the job to Tellez (having a vet to back up would be useful).

 

Tulo I don't expect to ever play for the Jays again, either due to injury or being let go, so this is a moot point.

 

 

It's not like I'm against trading Pillar, but then you have to find someone better and/or cheaper on the FA market which I don't think is really that easy of a task like you make it out to be.

 

It depends. Someone better in 2019 or someone better from 2019-2025? That's what we should be determining. If we trade Pillar and put Alford at CF (as an example), yeah, we probably lose a win or two in 2019 depending on how Alford does, but who cares? The objective would be to develop him for future seasons. Anything he gives in 2019 would be gravy. There are many layers to this, not just wins in versus wins out in 2019.

 

 

I agree, but this is the whole thing. The team's TOP priority should be securing starting pitching. I don't know how many miracles you expect from this team, but in your universe it sounds like they need to:

 

1. Dump 5 guys.

2. Pick up 2 SP.

3. Pick up an OF, maybe even a second one now because you created a hole dumping Pillar.

 

So that's 8/9 moves made, before addressing the bullpen, and all done on a budget (maybe down to 6/7 moves if Smoak/Pillar bring in players addressing the other issues). That's a very, very high expectation of the FO for this offseason.

 

I never said pick up 2 Sp's or 2 Of's. Picking up one Sp is what I expect, and maybe one cheap gamble (Garrett Richards?). I only mentioned adding one OF as having Grichuk at CF, a new OF in one of the corners, Billy McUpton in the other, and Teoscar at DH is an option that is worth exploring if they choose to go that route.

 

Trading Martin, Smoak, and Pillar for something of reasonable value shouldn't be too difficult. Morales and Tulo will have to be dumped, which I don't expect to happen with Rogers owning the team, but who knows.

 

Shatkins made 8 trades at this past trade deadline. Moving a few more vets shouldn't be asking too much. It's not like I'm expecting top 10 prospects out of it.

[Boxcar]

indeed. his obsession is going from pathetic to deranged

 

That you don't understand positional penalty isn't my fault.