Donaldson Aug 31 Trade Thread

[P2F]

This is absolutely not true. Second round picks whom make it to triple AAA, with good stuff and numbers no less-- is much less likely than you think. Again this front office's history of finding excellent pitchers out of nowhere is well documented, so I'd give them some leeway of finding a decent player.

 

Lest we forget that both Atkins and Shapiro were employed by the Indians when Merryweather was drafted, so they're familiar with him.

[glory]

Check out when Kluber made his debut. I'm not saying they're the same at all, but obviously the same FO that found this hidden gem might be capable of finding another solid starter who's devalued heavily due to age and injury.

 

McHugh is another one who didn't get a shot until 27 and he's been very good ever since.

 

Merryweather would be a much better prospect if he was 24 instead of turning 27, but that doesn't mean he can't become a productive big leaguer.

[P2F]

Ok, I didn't realize the age cutoff wasn't season end, but he's still an old 27 next year. He could be an outlier. A second round pick would be far more valuable. In a couple years we can revisit and see if he's an outlier, until then I will continue to consider him garbage. He's a back end starter at best, more likely a bullpen guy with an injury history.

 

Steamer projections have him as more of a #3 than a "back end starter at best, more likely to be a bullpen guy".

[Boxcar]

Ok, I didn't realize the age cutoff wasn't season end, but he's still an old 27 next year. He could be an outlier. A second round pick would be far more valuable. In a couple years we can revisit and see if he's an outlier, until then I will continue to consider him garbage. He's a back end starter at best, more likely a bullpen guy with an injury history.

 

Can you present any evidence that a second round pick is much more valuable than a guaranteed major league player?

 

Because we can present a compelling counter argument.

[Krylian]

Julian Merryweather is 2 months younger than Mike Trout.

[Grant77]

Can you present any evidence that a second round pick is much more valuable than a guaranteed major league player?

 

Because we can present a compelling counter argument.

 

Guaranteed?

[Captain Adama]

Guaranteed?

 

Let's be real, the Jays' depth next year and the year after is gonna allow Merryweather a guaranteed opportunity to play in the big leagues.

 

Unless his arm literally falls off.

[Krylian]

Let's be real, the Jays' depth next year and the year after is gonna allow Merryweather a guaranteed opportunity to play in the big leagues.

 

Unless his arm literally falls off.

 

An opportunity with this garbage team? Yes. But the concern is, if he was really any good, why couldn't he crack the majors until age 27..... And on a very bad team. Maybe he goes full Jack Flaherty next season and surprises... But it's more likely that he's not all that good.

 

Basically, it's what would you rather have as tie return for JD? Low ceiling and high floor (Merryweather) or high ceiling and low floor (comp pick).

[Boxcar]

An opportunity with this garbage team? Yes. But the concern is, if he was really any good, why couldn't he crack the majors until age 27..... And on a very bad team. Maybe he goes full Jack Flaherty next season and surprises... But it's more likely that he's not all that good.

 

Basically, it's what would you rather have as tie return for JD? Low ceiling and high floor (Merryweather) or high ceiling and low floor (comp pick).

 

Merryweather, every single time. Anyone who says otherwise just hasn't looked into the issue or the historical likelihood of that comp pick turning even into a s***** bench player.

[Deadpool]

Guaranteed?

 

I mean, unless he cannot recover from this injury, but I'm pretty sure Shatkins have looked at the medicals and are comfortable that he'll recover normally...

[metafour]

Merryweather, every single time. Anyone who says otherwise just hasn't looked into the issue or the historical likelihood of that comp pick turning even into a s***** bench player.

 

This. Krylian is just using age-driven logic which doesn't even apply to pitchers as much as it does with hitters. Merryweather has MLB-quality stuff and he's already knocking on the door, thus he is obviously more valuable than a comp pick. The small likelihood of finding a superstar prospect with a 2nd round comp pick is there, but at that point you also have to consider that there is also a small chance that Merryweather finds one small improvement and ascends to a higher level himself which is entirely possible with any pitcher who throws mid-90's and flashes above-average secondary pitches while showing the ability to throw strikes.

 

Look at someone like Kloffenstein (who we should rightfully be hopeful about) who we got in the 3rd but paid 1st round money to. He was 90-93 in his limited outings in the GCL while flashing "potential" secondary pitches. Yes he is just 18, but it isn't even a given that Kloffenstein even becomes Merryweather. Merryweather certainly already throws harder, and while Kloffenstein could grow, it isn't abnormal at all for HS pitchers to hit peak velocity at 18/19. He could also jump into the high 90's and become a superstar, or flame out in A-ball like a ton of other HS pitchers do.

 

If you look at it objectively instead of focusing on "hype", then Merryweather is obviously above a 2nd-round comp pick. There is also a reason why Cleveland put him onto the 40-man roster after posting a 5-whatever ERA as a 25 year old last year: there is obviously something there, and if you read actual scouting reports its pretty easy to see what it is.

[Krylian]

I'm not saying that the comp is better than Merryweather... I'm just pointing out what I think the likely thought process is for those that absolutely wanted the pick. They see Bichette, SRF, Kloff as guys in that area that have a higher ceiling than Merryweather, and think there's a shot of landing another prize with the pick. Merryweather isn't a sexy prospect... And that's the problem that some have. Getting sexy for JD was almost fool proof, and yet here we are. My beef is really with Rogers if you strip it right down. Everyone knew this team was trending down after 2016. Retooling should've started... And if not then, then for sure after 2017. But there's nothing that can be done now except put some ointment on your ass, pull up your pants, and pretend it never happened.

[Bobthe4th]

I can't believe Shatkins would turn down Flaherty. Save the mental gymnastics that turns Merryweather into Kluber and just blame ownership for slowing the rebuild because there is just no f***ing way Shatkins turns down Flaherty.

 

It goes against years and YEARS of their M.O.

 

They literally did though......

[glory]

I'm not saying that the comp is better than Merryweather... I'm just pointing out what I think the likely thought process is for those that absolutely wanted the pick. They see Bichette, SRF, Kloff as guys in that area that have a higher ceiling than Merryweather, and think there's a shot of landing another prize with the pick. Merryweather isn't a sexy prospect... And that's the problem that some have. Getting sexy for JD was almost fool proof, and yet here we are. My beef is really with Rogers if you strip it right down. Everyone knew this team was trending down after 2016. Retooling should've started... And if not then, then for sure after 2017. But there's nothing that can be done now except put some ointment on your ass, pull up your pants, and pretend it never happened.

 

JD would have had to turn down the QO to get the comp pick, never mind the actual value of a pick in the 70’s or 80’s range.

 

If Shatkins knew he was going to turn the QO down he may not have been traded. But there was a strong chance he would have accepted and I think Shatkins just wanted to move on entirely.

[Abomination]

An opportunity with this garbage team? Yes. But the concern is, if he was really any good, why couldn't he crack the majors until age 27..... And on a very bad team.

 

He was a college draftee who made some mechanical changes and suddenly took off. He's only had 4 minor league seasons under his belt, so it's not like he's been toiling down there for a decade or anything.

[Krylian]

JD would have had to turn down the QO to get the comp pick, never mind the actual value of a pick in the 70’s or 80’s range.

 

If Shatkins knew he was going to turn the QO down he may not have been traded. But there was a strong chance he would have accepted and I think Shatkins just wanted to move on entirely.

 

I would've been very surprised if JD had accepted the QO. Regardless though. The casuals would've seen it as him walking for nothing (ie. draft pick). At least this way, there's a face and a name to the compensation, and someone that will be making his debut for the team in 2019 (barring anything unforeseen). Any way you slice it, this JD thing went sideways in a very bad way. You can dress it up all you want, but this is not the return that JD should've netted us.

[Captain Adama]

I would've been very surprised if JD had accepted the QO. Regardless though. The casuals would've seen it as him walking for nothing (ie. draft pick). At least this way, there's a face and a name to the compensation, and someone that will be making his debut for the team in 2019 (barring anything unforeseen). Any way you slice it, this JD thing went sideways in a very bad way. You can dress it up all you want, but this is not the return that JD should've netted us.

 

No it's not, but it's kind of s***** that he was hurt for almost all year and sucked when he played. Obviously you're not going to get much after that.

 

Just a worse case scenario of events.

[glory]

I would've been very surprised if JD had accepted the QO. Regardless though. The casuals would've seen it as him walking for nothing (ie. draft pick). At least this way, there's a face and a name to the compensation, and someone that will be making his debut for the team in 2019 (barring anything unforeseen). Any way you slice it, this JD thing went sideways in a very bad way. You can dress it up all you want, but this is not the return that JD should've netted us.

 

Well yeah this was the worst case scenario playing out, but Shatkins didn't have much of a choice after JD got hurt and couldn't get healthy in time for the July deadline. Hell he wasn't even healthy for the August deadline.

 

I don't think him accepting the QO would have been all that surprising. A guaranteed $19m or going on the market with a pick attached to you and having to find a better deal coming off a lost season seems like a no brainer decision. He's 33 next year. His time to make big money is dwindling. If he's going to settle for a pillow contract, then the guaranteed money that comes with the QO is probably as good as he would have gotten.

 

The Jays either had to trade him or set aside close to $20m to put him at 3B in 2019. The comp pick is probably not even in the discussion.

[Dick_Pole]

An opportunity with this garbage team? Yes. But the concern is, if he was really any good, why couldn't he crack the majors until age 27..... And on a very bad team. Maybe he goes full Jack Flaherty next season and surprises... But it's more likely that he's not all that good.

 

Basically, it's what would you rather have as tie return for JD? Low ceiling and high floor (Merryweather) or high ceiling and low floor (comp pick).

 

Injuries plus Cleveland has had the best and deepest pitching staff over the past couple of years prior to this one. Aaron Sanchez wouldn't have cracked the Indians' MLB roster, certainly not as a starter.

[Grant77]

Injuries plus Cleveland has had the best and deepest pitching staff over the past couple of years prior to this one. Aaron Sanchez wouldn't have cracked the Indians' MLB roster, certainly not as a starter.

 

You're absolutely right. A guy that won the ERA title and got Cy votes clearly would have tanked their staff.

[Stangstag]

You're absolutely right. A guy that won the ERA title and got Cy votes clearly would have tanked their staff.

 

Sanchez wasn't very good his first year pitching in the majors. And its looking more and more like 2016 was an outlier year for him.

[Jimcanuck]

Sanchez wasn't very good his first year pitching in the majors. And its looking more and more like 2016 was an outlier year for him.

 

For reasons other than talent.

[Grant77]

Sanchez wasn't very good his first year pitching in the majors. And its looking more and more like 2016 was an outlier year for him.

 

Since when is a 1.09 ERA and a 2.80 FIP not very good?

[Brownie19]

Since when is a 1.09 ERA and a 2.80 FIP not very good?

 

Geez, I wonder if he means his first full season in the majors where he was given the opportunity to start 11 games and was s***.

[Grant77]

Geez, I wonder if he means his first full season in the majors where he was given the opportunity to start 11 games and was s***.

 

So the word 'first' now means 'a portion of the second season'.

[Brownie19]

So the word 'first' now means 'a portion of the second season'.

 

Don't be such an *******.

 

I'll fix his statement hopefully we can get the point through your thick skull.

 

"Sanchez wasn't very good in 2015, his first extended time pitching in the majors - especially in the 11 starts he made where he posted a 5.21 FIP (4.64 xFIP), along with a 5.73 K% / 5.05 BB% ratio. When you couple that with the poor results of the 27 starts he's made in 2017 and 2018 (which includes a BB% of almost 5) - its looking more and more like 2016 was an outlier year for him"

[Grant77]

Don't be such an *******.

 

I'll fix his statement hopefully we can get the point through your thick skull.

 

"Sanchez wasn't very good in 2015, his first extended time pitching in the majors - especially in the 11 starts he made where he posted a 5.21 FIP (4.64 xFIP), along with a 5.73 K% / 5.05 BB% ratio. When you couple that with the poor results of the 27 starts he's made in 2017 and 2018 (which includes a BB% of almost 5) - its looking more and more like 2016 was an outlier year for him"

 

You're trying way too hard to make a point that isn't at all true.

 

First of all, he pitched in 24 games in his first season. It was a dominant showing for an extended period, not just a one week cameo.

 

In the 'not very good', 2015 season he ended with a 4.22 xFIP, not to mention an absolutely superb postseason run. That's not too bad for a first full season.

 

The next season, his first full season as a starter, he was one of the top pitchers in baseball and garnered Cy votes.

 

After a great start to 2017, the blister issues cropped up in a start against the Orioles and it's been a rough road since then. Some blister issues and some pitch mix issues have contributed, but the staff ace that we saw in 2016 still has all of his stuff and we've seen that for stretches this year.

[Boxcar]

No one can spin a narrative quite like Grant

[Brownie19]

You're trying way too hard to make a point that isn't at all true.

 

First of all, he pitched in 24 games in his first season. It was a dominant showing for an extended period, not just a one week cameo.

 

In the 'not very good', 2015 season he ended with a 4.22 xFIP, not to mention an absolutely superb postseason run. That's not too bad for a first full season.

 

The next season, his first full season as a starter, he was one of the top pitchers in baseball and garnered Cy votes.

 

After a great start to 2017, the blister issues cropped up in a start against the Orioles and it's been a rough road since then. Some blister issues and some pitch mix issues have contributed, but the staff ace that we saw in 2016 still has all of his stuff and we've seen that for stretches this year.

 

and by this you mean 1 start...his first one vs. Tampa. Holy f***. I'm out. Can't do this. No idea why I even tried.

[Spanky__99]

lol