8/27 Blue Jays vs Orioles - Series Thread

[tercet]

A 464 babip is lucky because it isn't sustainable, why don't you understand this?

 

I won 10k~ usd in April 2018 over 4 days in Washington,DC in poker, I was lucky some hands went my way. Did I play good? Uh sure, but that win rate isn't sustainable long term. By your logic because since I played good, it means I was unlucky that I didn't win 50k in that 4 day stretch.

 

Luck is a part of variance, why don't you understand this?

[Deadpool]

A 464 babip is lucky because it isn't sustainable, why don't you understand this?

 

I won 10k~ usd in April 2018 over 4 days in Washington,DC in poker, I was lucky some hands went my way. Did I play good? Uh sure, but that win rate isn't sustainable long term. By your logic because since I played good, it means I was unlucky that I didn't win 50k in that 4 day stretch.

 

Luck is a part of variance, why don't you understand this?

 

If he's hitting a ridiculously high number of line drives over that period, it's the equivalent of a poker player getting a lot of pocket aces. Your winning percentage is going to look higher than it should, but it's because of what you brought to the table. Let's say you played a tournament where you got pocket aces 55% of the time, but you only won 46.4% of the hands, that would probably be pretty unlucky on your part.

[tercet]

Not a bad point Deadpool, but I guess we are both right and both wrong.

 

Sure would AA only 46.4% of the time be unlucky, but you are lucky to get AA that often over such a small sample.

 

Gurribabip was lucky and unlucky in July..

 

/thread

[Jimcanuck]

Not a bad point Deadpool, but I guess we are both right and both wrong.

 

Sure would AA only 46.4% of the time be unlucky, but you are lucky to get AA that often over such a small sample.

 

Gurribabip was lucky and unlucky in July..

 

/thread

 

Truth is not truth?

[Deadpool]

Not a bad point Deadpool, but I guess we are both right and both wrong.

 

Sure would AA only 46.4% of the time be unlucky, but you are lucky to get AA that often over such a small sample.

 

Gurribabip was lucky and unlucky in July..

 

/thread

 

Getting pocket aces is 100% luck. Hard hit line drives have an element of luck to them, but for the most part involve skill.

 

Edit: Just to clarify, there's a chance I could get pocket aces in a poker game, I have actually several times in the past... There's just slightly above a 0% chance that I could get a hard hit line drive off of a major league baseball pitcher.

[Spanky99]

Why'd he bump this thread, jesus, lol?! Psycho much!

[John_Havok]

Why'd he bump this thread, jesus, lol?! Psycho much!

 

Because for some reason he still thinks his point makes sense, which it doesn't.

 

It's apparantly his position that when a baseball player swings a bat at a ball, the chances of the result being a line drive or a dribbler are equal and nothing differentiates this but random chance.

 

Therefore, Mike Trout is just really really lucky at baseball to hit all those line drives and home runs. Can't teach luck

Edited September 2, 2018 by John_Havok

[tercet]

https://www.fangraphs.com/library/pitching/babip/

 

BABIP is important because the frequency with which a player gets a hit on a ball in play or allows a hit on a ball in play is very telling. Three main factors influence BABIP and all three of those factors tell us something important about that player’s overall stat line. Those factors are defense, luck, and talent level.

 

a) Defense

Luck

c) Talent Level

[Boxcar]

https://www.fangraphs.com/library/pitching/babip/

 

BABIP is important because the frequency with which a player gets a hit on a ball in play or allows a hit on a ball in play is very telling. Three main factors influence BABIP and all three of those factors tell us something important about that player’s overall stat line. Those factors are defense, luck, and talent level.

 

a) Defense

Luck

c) Talent Level

 

Lol? No you f***ing dummy, "talent level" has nothing to do with BABIP. Was Jose Bautista a low talent player because he had a .240 BABIP in 2010 when he hit over 50 dingers and was worth over 6 WAR?

 

Take that one off, and add:

 

- quality of contact

- launch angle

- ability to spray the baseball (not susceptible to the shift)

 

Line drives come with a very high babip. Why you'd have it out for a guy because he's hitting the ball well is quite baffling but I will say that you should probably stick to analyzing poker, you're out of your element here.

[tercet]

Lol? No you f***ing dummy, "talent level" has nothing to do with BABIP. Was Jose Bautista a low talent player because he had a .240 BABIP in 2010 when he hit over 50 dingers and was worth over 6 WAR?

 

Take that one off, and add:

 

- quality of contact

- launch angle

- ability to spray the baseball (not susceptible to the shift)

 

Line drives come with a very high babip. Why you'd have it out for a guy because he's hitting the ball well is quite baffling but I will say that you should probably stick to analyzing poker, you're out of your element here.

 

I’m simply telling JH that luck is involved with BABIP, he doesn’t seem to understand that.

 

But he is from the spanky/bts/Burlingtonbandit/etc school of internet trolls

 

1. Never admit your wrong

2. Insult opponent when your wrong

3. Just ignore the posts

[John_Havok]

I’m simply telling JH that luck is involved with BABIP, he doesn’t seem to understand that.

 

But he is from the spanky/bts/Burlingtonbandit/etc school of internet trolls

 

1. Never admit your wrong

2. Insult opponent when your wrong

3. Just ignore the posts

 

Of course luck is "a" factor. It's a factor in everything. It's just not a very big one when it comes to pro athletes who train their entire lives honing skills they put to use on a daily basis.

[John_Havok]

I’m simply telling JH that luck is involved with BABIP, he doesn’t seem to understand that.

 

But he is from the spanky/bts/Burlingtonbandit/etc school of internet trolls

 

1. Never admit your wrong

2. Insult opponent when your wrong

3. Just ignore the posts

 

Side note, i happily admit when I'm wrong when it happens, it sure as f*** isn't this this thread.

 

Have a nice day terdicktuck