Billy Mckinney top comparables

[Olerud363]

I like the comparisons, go for broke and compare him to the best in the game. There are a lot of different ways to approach this.

 

1. Realistic - compare McKinney to players who hit like him in the minors and got 100 at bats as a 23 year old.

2. Optimistic - compare McKinney to players who hit like him in the minors and surprised us in the majors.

3. Racist - compare McKinney to players who are the same race and handedness as him.

4. Ridiculous - compare McKinney to the best players in the game.

 

But Justin Upton?? It's just so completely random.

 

Why not Mitch Hanniger?? Or Trey Mancini?? Or Bobby Higginson??

 

Compare him to other Bobby's. You can probably find 10 Bobby's who are better comparisons then Justin Upton.

 

Or if you think Justin Upton is the ultimate comparison, then accept the fact he already missed Upton's 19 through 23 seasons, and is starting 4 seasons later. So find the guys who are like Justin Upton but started later. Who would that be?? Alex Rios??

 

Or Kole Calhoun. Why not Kole Calhoun?? Is there any reason the comparison isn't Kole Calhoun?? What's the reason????

[Spanky__99]

http://www.reactiongifs.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/10/STFU.gif

[tercet]

Jason are Olerud and LTBF actually this stupid or are they trolling us?

[Krylian]

Roger Maris

[TheHurl]

I like the Fred Lewis comp for McKinney. All he needs now is to hit for a cycle and get angry when "that female announcer" calls the cycle overrated. Because he has one but his heroes like Bonds and Mays don't have one.

[vdubmvp]

I like the Fred Lewis comp for McKinney. All he needs now is to hit for a cycle and get angry when "that female announcer" calls the cycle overrated. Because he has one but his heroes like Bonds and Mays don't have one.

 

But the cycle is overrated...

[vdubmvp]

Oh that was probably the point.

[Grant77]

All of this from a comment saying that McKinney could hit 30 bombs with decent defense in his peak.

 

With how good he's looking, a 121 wRC+ (Upton's career mark) doesn't seem overly optimistic for his peak years, but maybe I'm way off.

[MunenoriKawasakiMVP]

rn imo he is Bautista before the breakout. Only way he becomes valuable in the long run is if he cuts the K% or upgrades the BB% to be a Joey Gallo type with less power but ,230 average.

[Spanky__99]

All of this from a comment saying that McKinney could hit 30 bombs with decent defense in his peak.

 

With how good he's looking, a 121 wRC+ (Upton's career mark) doesn't seem overly optimistic for his peak years, but maybe I'm way off.

 

I stand with you bud, it's just a comp. I still stick with Cliff Floyd!

[Olerud363]

All of this from a comment saying that McKinney could hit 30 bombs with decent defense in his peak.

 

With how good he's looking, a 121 wRC+ (Upton's career mark) doesn't seem overly optimistic for his peak years, but maybe I'm way off.

 

The Upton comparison seemed a little odd. Given Upton was in his 4th season contending for an MVP at Mckinney's age. I'm honestly not for or against McKinney, and I agree he looks really good. It's only 7 games but he seems pretty patient and has that classic left handed "sweet swing". Of course it's only been 7 games, his minor league numbers are average, and the prospect guys don't seem to love him (18th in the Jays system).

[Olerud363]

I stand with you bud, it's just a comp. I still stick with Cliff Floyd!

 

I just have a hard time comparing McKinney to extremely high rated prospects, Upton was a 1st overall pick, and Cliff Floyd was the number one rated prospect by baseball america in 1994.

 

I'm more interested in hearing about the guys, who were at the same level as McKinney as 23-24 year olds, but surprised anyway.

[Spanky__99]

I just have a hard time comparing McKinney to extremely high rated prospects, Upton was a 1st overall pick, and Cliff Floyd was the number one rated prospect by baseball america in 1994.

 

I'm more interested in hearing about the guys, who were at the same level as McKinney as 23-24 year olds, but surprised anyway.

 

I responded to that, with a flat answer, you miss it? Either way, go away.

[Spanky__99]

You're a long winded tercet, do I have to IL you too

[Daniel Labude]

Jason are Olerud and LTBF actually this stupid or are they trolling us?

 

What did I do?

[SaskJaysFan_2]

McKinley actually reminds me of Brett Gardner

[Grant77]

The Upton comparison seemed a little odd. Given Upton was in his 4th season contending for an MVP at Mckinney's age. I'm honestly not for or against McKinney, and I agree he looks really good. It's only 7 games but he seems pretty patient and has that classic left handed "sweet swing". Of course it's only been 7 games, his minor league numbers are average, and the prospect guys don't seem to love him (18th in the Jays system).

 

The Upton comparison was taken out of context, but that's nothing new for me and I don't mind. If I remember correctly, I just meant that he could put up numbers similar to Upton in his peak. The career trajectory is obviously going to be very different

 

The drop in prospect rankings really shows how fickle they can be. After a taste of AAA last year, he increased his power and walks and kept a decent K rate. The BABIP dropped, but that's really just noise because his batted ball profile is fantastic.

 

To me, he either maintained or improved this year and should be ranked much higher. There really aren't any serious red flags at this point.

[BTS]

The Upton comparison was taken out of context, but that's nothing new for me and I don't mind. If I remember correctly, I just meant that he could put up numbers similar to Upton in his peak. The career trajectory is obviously going to be very different

 

The drop in prospect rankings really shows how fickle they can be. After a taste of AAA last year, he increased his power and walks and kept a decent K rate. The BABIP dropped, but that's really just noise because his batted ball profile is fantastic.

 

To me, he either maintained or improved this year and should be ranked much higher. There really aren't any serious red flags at this point.

 

The sub-300 OBP in AAA is s bit of a red flag.

[Orgfiller]

The sub-300 OBP in AAA is s bit of a red flag.

 

The walk rate was passable though, I don't know why his BABIP is so low but given that he doesn't have a Joey Gallo flyball profile I wouldn't count on that going forward unless he literally just isn't a very good hitter. It's not like he's Kevin Pillar chasing at everything out there.

[Jonn]

If anything McKinney has shown a good eye at the plate. He’s came in and has had Curtis Granderson type at-bats.

[Dr. Dinger]

I really am starting to hate how he steps out of the box and swings between each pitch.

[Boxcar]

I really am starting to hate how he steps out of the box and swings between each pitch.

 

I guess that means it's time to predict that he'll be working at McDonald's before he turns 30.

[Olerud363]

So f***ing what Olerud, McKinney was a 1st round pick and highly touted, have you thunk of that, you asked for a comp, I gave you one.

 

What are you looking for in all this, a laugh or the fact the process of spects is a crapshoot, f*** off right now, I'm irritated. It is what it f***ing is, there's no science to it.

 

There is actually a science to it. It's imperfect science, but it is a science. The prediction systems are AI systems. They work by learning from previous examples. It's not a complete crap shoot. If you have two groups of minor league players, with different performance levels, the system is good at predicting what the players will do as a group.

 

What the system is not good at doing is talking a group of guys who are comparable and picking out the one that will be the outlier.

 

What I am interested in.

 

1. If you take a bunch of guys that are at the same stage as Billy Mckinney, what is the expected outcome??

2. What is the optimistic outcome??

3. Who are the guys that are comparable to Billy Mckinney at the same age?

 

The first two questions can be answered by looking at data from prediction systems. The 3rd one is an interesting discussion.

 

Anyway I started the thread admittedly making fun of Grant, so I deserve getting slammed back, I set myself up for that.

[Grant77]

The sub-300 OBP in AAA is s bit of a red flag.

 

That's a good point. However, if the 9% walk rate translates to the bigs then I'm not overly concerned. There's now way he keeps such a low BABIP with over 25% line drives.

[Olerud363]

That's a good point. However, if the 9% walk rate translates to the bigs then I'm not overly concerned. There's now way he keeps such a low BABIP with over 25% line drives.

 

He's only had 250 at bats or so in aaa this year. So it's not like the .295 on base percentage is even through one full season. It's a half season.

 

A couple of guys who also put up low on base percentages in the upper minors but were fairly successful. (I saw these guys when looking at Kole Calhoun's comparables)

 

Paul O'Neil - hit .254 .291 .399 in Denver in ~ 190 at bats.

Josh Reddick - had a .301 on base percentage in Pawtucket in 480 at bats or so (not that he's an on percentage machine in the majors, but he's still hit OK).

 

Not that that this means he'll be successful. He could also be the next Gabe Gross or John Ford Griffin.

[P2F]

I've seen a bunch of Billy Mckinney is the next Justin Upton comments.

 

I'm well aware this is a reference to Grant comparing McKinney to Upton, however is Grant just being passive aggressive because of a previous discussion on Justin Upton?? Like I kind of remember Grant dissing Upton in the past, and now this is his way to show us all that Upton isn't that great, Upton is at about the level of a 15th rated prospect.

 

Why else would you compare a 15th rated, 23 year old, left handed outfielder, without great speed, to a guy who was a teenage sensation, number 1 overall prospect, is headed for a 50 WAR career?? Upton is a guy who will have 50 WAR, and we're all dissapointed, because he was so athletic and highly rated.

 

McKinney is a guy who if he pulls of 15 WAR it would be amazing.

 

I spent 20 minutes looking for the best McKinney comparables. I wanted to be fair and come up with a top end, middle range, and lower range comparables. I wanted to compare him to left handed batters, as it will effect his playing time (guys like McKinney are often platooned and became 120 game guys). I wanted to compare him to guys who began at the same age (23-25).

 

I came up with Bobby Higginson (high end 23 career WAR), Jacque Jones (14 WAR), and Fred Lewis (4 WAR).

 

Why again are we comparing McKinney to Upton??

 

[tercet]

Maybe Reed Johnson is a ceiling for him?

A corner/4th OF that can steal some bases..

[Orgfiller]

Maybe Reed Johnson is a ceiling for him?

A corner/4th OF that can steal some bases..

 

I personally see a lot of Reggie Jackson in him.

[gruber92]

Actually, i see a lot of Lenny Dykstra in McKinney.

[wilko]

McKinney reminds me of a white Kenny Lofton minus the speed.