2018 MLB Draft Thread

[metafour]

Going HS at #12 makes logical sense as there is a very high chance that there will be a run of College guys at the top of the draft which means that most if not all of the College guys actually worthy of being taken 12th overall will be gone before our pick. That means that its likely that you will be picking from one of the high-upside top HS kids, or over-drafting someone from the next tier of College guys who really dont have the upside or pedigree to go that high in the first place. Singer and McClanahan have righted the ship and are finishing strong which makes it unlikely that they will be there at #12; who else could realistically drop? Maybe Swaggerty, but as Kiley said in his chat today: College bats with his tools don't typically fall. Its a no-brainer if you're sitting there looking at great value in a top HS talent versus reaching for someone like Kowar, the kid from Stetson, or who else? Larnach?

[TheHurl]

I think you are all underestimating Tinnish's influence on the draft.

[jays4life19]

I think you are all underestimating Tinnish's influence on the draft.

 

care to elaborate?

[TheHurl]

Going HS at #12 makes logical sense as there is a very high chance that there will be a run of College guys at the top of the draft which means that most if not all of the College guys actually worthy of being taken 12th overall will be gone before our pick. That means that its likely that you will be picking from one of the high-upside top HS kids, or over-drafting someone from the next tier of College guys who really dont have the upside or pedigree to go that high in the first place. Singer and McClanahan have righted the ship and are finishing strong which makes it unlikely that they will be there at #12; who else could realistically drop? Maybe Swaggerty, but as Kiley said in his chat today: College bats with his tools don't typically fall. Its a no-brainer if you're sitting there looking at great value in a top HS talent versus reaching for someone like Kowar, the kid from Stetson, or who else? Larnach?

 

Kind of depends on the year. 2014 was the last time I followed college super closely and it was supposed to the "Prep Draft". That year 13, 14, and 15 were Trea Turner, Young Beedah and Sean Newcomb. Finnegan, Zimmer, Matt Chapman and Luke Weaver all went later in the 1st.

 

Historically 12 has been a solid spot to go for guys from non traditional baseball colleges. Like Kirk Gibson, Jared Weaver, Matt Morris and Nomar.

[TheHurl]

care to elaborate?

 

Everyone keeps saying Shatkins go College. Tinnish is a pitching happy guy who will go high school or college. I think his influence on the draft is way more than Shapiro (who I would guess asks about signability and not much more)

[Angrioter]

Everyone keeps saying Shatkins go College. Tinnish is a pitching happy guy who will go high school or college. I think his influence on the draft is way more than Shapiro (who I would guess asks about signability and not much more)

 

Bat over arm. Pitching prospects suxx

[Brownie19]

Everyone keeps saying Shatkins go College. Tinnish is a pitching happy guy who will go high school or college. I think his influence on the draft is way more than Shapiro (who I would guess asks about signability and not much more)

 

Please tell me that people in Tinnish's position are able to remain open minded and evaluate players in terms of value and talent on a yearly basis without developing tunnel vision for a particular type of player (whether it's HS v. College or hitter v. pitcher).

[TheHurl]

Please tell me that people in Tinnish's position are able to remain open minded and evaluate players in terms of value and talent on a yearly basis without developing tunnel vision for a particular type of player (whether it's HS v. College or hitter v. pitcher).

 

I'm sure they are. Tinnish had his best success with drafting pitching (Thor, Sanchez, and Stroman are all credited to him). The easiest to project is a college bat (which is why Adkins would have a history in drafting College bats, although his best success was reaching for a high school shortstop). The draft has changed over the past 5 years with pools. You got to know who is signing for what amount. You can't take 10 high schoolers no matter what

[metafour]

I think you are all underestimating Tinnish's influence on the draft.

 

Why single out Tinnish of all people who already has a defined role overseeing everything done internationally? How much influence could he possibly have with all the travel he does? I can't imagine its any more than someone like LaCava who was doing a lot of scouting already under the old regime, or even Dana Brown who's entire job is amateur scouting based. Would Tinnish even be in Toronto come draft day given that the IFA signing period opens just a month later?

[Ray]

I'm comfortable enough in this front office' drafting policy and track record with it that I'll be 100% fine with whoever they draft. They seem to like get a balance of high floor low variance prospects like TJ Zeuch, Logan Warmoth etc and high boom/bust types like Bichette and Pearson. I'll go along with whoever they end up signing.

[TheHurl]

Why single out Tinnish of all people who already has a defined role overseeing everything done internationally? How much influence could he possibly have with all the travel he does? I can't imagine its any more than someone like LaCava who was doing a lot of scouting already under the old regime, or even Dana Brown who's entire job is amateur scouting based. Would Tinnish even be in Toronto come draft day given that the IFA signing period opens just a month later?

 

I have a hard enough time understanding why Dana Brown is still here. I will turn a blind eye to anyone that tells me that idiot has influence over this front office (not to mention all those "Special Asst" positions seem to be BS titles for people that they won't fire).

 

From what I understand Steve Sanders still reports to Tinnish. But you could be right that Sanders has the draft.

[Daniel Labude]

Hopefully we take one of the Gators with our first pick imo. I'd lean more towards the pitchers but either would be great. Singer, Kowar, or India at our pick would be great. I watched Singer last night and Kowar is on today

[BlueRocky]

Hopefully we take one of the Gators with our first pick imo. I'd lean more towards the pitchers but either would be great. Singer, Kowar, or India at our pick would be great. I watched Singer last night and Kowar is on today

 

It would be a safer choice. All three of them have top 10-15 pick potential. The two pitchers have been good, and India have really improved his draft stock.

 

But I hear they’re really leaning on a prep pick.

[Krylian]

Sounds like a Bobby Witt Jr. is the consensus #1 pick for 2019.

 

#shit4witt

[metafour]

Sounds like a Bobby Witt Jr. is the consensus #1 pick for 2019.

 

...which means that there is about a 1% chance he actually holds that status by draft day.

[Krylian]

...which means that there is about a 1% chance he actually holds that status by draft day.

 

Yes. But for the time being, #shit4witt is catchy. Stop fighting it.

[Pendleton]

Yes. But for the time being, #shit4witt is catchy. Stop fighting it.

 

Drop the last T and it's a good motto for a lot of GDT posters

[Brownie19]

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2018-mlb-mock-draft-v-2-0/

 

new mock draft from fangraphs.

[P2F]

Man, I'd love a Liberatore selection.

[BlueRocky]

He is still young and his fastball could improve. Velocities anywhere from 88 to 95. But good command and multiple off speed pitches from the left side, a pretty safe pick.

 

McClanahan has more upside, but Liberatore is a solid pick at 12

[Boxcar]

I have a hard enough time understanding why Dana Brown is still here. I will turn a blind eye to anyone that tells me that idiot has influence over this front office (not to mention all those "Special Asst" positions seem to be BS titles for people that they won't fire).

 

From what I understand Steve Sanders still reports to Tinnish. But you could be right that Sanders has the draft.

 

Wait, Dana Brown is still here? I figured he'd already be in Atlanta.

[Ray]

BA just posted their latest Mock draft: https://www.baseballamerica.com/rankings/mlb-mock-draft/

 

Anyone who has a membership mind posting this?

[BlueRocky]

Yes pls

[burlingtonbandit]

Casey Mize

Auburn RHP

Notes:

This is the easy pick. It starts to get dicey immediately after No. 1.

 

VIDEO

2

3ds_giants83.jpg

Joey Bart

Georgia Tech C

Notes:

San Francisco controls the draft at No. 2 and has been linked to a number of players with the second overall pick, but they’ve been all over Joey Bart since the beginning of the season. He’s hit and caught well enough to justify going this high, and the highest pick the Giants have had this century prior to this year was in 2008 when the team took Florida State catcher Buster Posey with the fifth overall pick. Drafting an ACC catcher worked out pretty well for them then. Maybe it will again.

 

VIDEO

3

3ds_phillies83.jpg

Alec Bohm

Wichita State 3B

Notes:

Philadelphia has selected a few players with questionable impact potential at the top of the draft in recent years, and while there’s still time for 2016 No. 1 overall pick Mickey Moniak to figure things out, there’s a lot of pressure on the Phillies here at No. 3. They don’t select again until the fourth round, so why not take a bat with tons of power at one of the safest draft demographics there is?

 

VIDEO

4

3ds_whitesox81.jpg

Jonathan India

Florida 3B

Notes:

India has been surging all spring and it sounds like he’s still in the mix for teams even higher than No. 4 overall. His batting average has recently dipped below .400, but he’s having a career year in the SEC (.392/.531/.791) and has faced significantly stiffer competition than Bohm and Oregon State second baseman Nick Madrigal, which is a point in his favor. India is even better (.407/.559/.852) in conference play. As one scouting director noted, teams who have taken productive SEC hitters at the top of the draft (Nick Senzel, Alex Bregman, Dansby Swanson, Andrew Benintendi) have rarely been disappointed. Additionally, India’s .399 isolated slugging through 47 games is an extremely rare trait to see in a college infielder this century.

 

5

3ds_reds83

Brady Singer

Florida RHP

Notes:

Singer throws from a lower arm slot, the changeup could be a little better and there’s still some uncertainty surrounding why the Blue Jays didn’t sign Singer out of high school. However, he’s been durable (over 250 innings with the Gators), successful and he has solid mid-rotation stuff. As one of the higher probability major leaguers in this draft, he seems to fit higher than lower in the first round. He pitched well, as usual, in a recent marquee matchup against Mize and Auburn in front of Reds general manager Dick Williams.

 

6

3ds_mets79.jpg

Nick Madrigal

Oregon State 2B/SS

Notes:

Madrigal hasn’t skipped a beat since returning to the Beavers’ lineup after missing almost two months with a wrist injury, with seven multi-hit games since returning to action on April 19. Madrigal will also have the chance to face a pair of potential day one arms in Tristan Beck and Kris Bubic this weekend when Stanford comes to Corvallis for a big three-game series.

 

VIDEO

7

padres-2013.gif

Matthew Liberatore

Mountain Ridge HS, Glendale, Ariz. LHP

Notes:

Many evaluators still see Liberatore as the first prep pitcher off the board, and a step above the rest of the high school pitching class. To be clear, Padres’ 2017 first-round pick MacKenzie Gore was ahead of where Liberatore currently is at this point last season in terms of present stuff and command, but scouts love the Arizona commit’s feel for pitching. He was sitting 92-94, touching 96 mph in a recent outing in front of many high-level decision makers for teams picking from five to 10.

 

VIDEO

8

3ds_braves82

Jarred Kelenic

Waukesha (Wis.) West HS OF

Notes:

Kelenic has been difficult to scout given the weather he’s dealt with this spring, but the Braves have had someone from the organization watching his every move. He had a loud performance last weekend, when he went 11-for-17 with five doubles and a home run against Division I commits. While the Braves will always be in the mix for power arms, they could go with arguably the best prep hitter in the class to add to a system already loaded with pitching. Arizona third baseman Nolan Gorman could fit here as well, as a player with more raw talent at this age than Austin Riley, who has developed well in the Braves system. Still, it would be unwise to count Atlanta out of pitching here and it sounds like the team likes South Florida lefthander Shane McClanahan, as well as high-upside prep arms like Ethan Hankins, Kumar Rocker and Carter Stewart.

 

VIDEO

9

3ds_athletics79.jpg

Shane McClanahan

South Florida LHP

Notes:

McClanahan should be in the mix higher up the board, so if he falls here the Athletics might be thrilled to get a player with top-five talent. If this scenario happens, it would be a similar situation to how the A’s landed A.J. Puk with the sixth pick in 2016. After a few rough starts in late March and early April, McClanahan has allowed just five hits in his last two games, striking out 23 batters and walking five.

 

VIDEO

10

3ds_pirates81

Grayson Rodriguez

Central Heights HS, Nacogdoches, Texas RHP

Notes:

Rodriguez meets a lot of the same criteria that defined Shane Baz last year, who the team took with the No. 12 overall pick. He’s a big Texas righthander who’s up to 98 mph, has done a lot of work to improve his body over the offseason and repeats his delivery well. A few weeks ago Rodriguez was being talked about in the back half of the first round, but it sounds like he’s moving even higher than that.

 

11

3ds_orioles87.jpg

Cole Winn

Orange (Calif.) Lutheran HS RHP

Notes:

Winn has been arguably the most consistent prep pitcher in the class dating back to last summer and Baltimore has shown no recent hesitation with prep righthanders in the first round. A team that doesn’t like injury risks, Baltimore seems like a solid fit for Winn, who has been as steady as they come.

 

VIDEO

12

3ds_bluejays81.jpg

Noah Naylor

St. Joan of Arc Catholic SS, Mississauga, Ont. 3B/C

Notes:

Naylor has been rising in recent weeks and, given his strong track record against professional hitters with Team Canada, has an argument as the most polished prep bat in the class.

 

VIDEO

13

1027.png

Nolan Gorman

O'Connor HS, Phoenix 3B

Notes:

The Marlins are a tough team to peg at this moment, but many people in the industry believe they will be taking a high school player at this spot on June 4. Gorman wouldn’t have had a shot to get to them before the season, so they might like the idea of popping his close to elite raw power at No. 13. The team has also leaned towards hitters at the top of the draft recently, and given the state of the farm system and major league franchise, might be willing to swing for a homer here with the Gorman—who put on a show at the Major League High School Home Run Derby at Marlins Park last summer. Triston Casas and Naylor were both in that event and also make some sense here.

 

VIDEO

14

3ds_mariners83.jpg

Travis Swaggerty

South Alabama OF

Notes:

While the Marlins seem to be leaning towards the prep avenue, Seattle could easily go in the other direction and in this situation Travis Swaggerty would be the best player on the board. Swaggerty is having a solid season, hitting .301/.466/.584 with 45 walks and 30 strikeouts in 166 at-bats.

 

VIDEO

15

3ds_rangers83.jpg

Carter Stewart

Eau Gallie HS, Melbourne, Fla. RHP

Notes:

Stewart could easily go higher than this (i.e. Atlanta), but he scuffled a bit in his last start of the season and some evaluators see him more in the 10-15 range now. His two potential 70-grade pitches and performance in front of high-end decision makers this spring should keep him in the top half of the first round either way.

 

VIDEO

16

3ds_rays5.jpg

Brice Turang

Santiago HS, Corona, Calif. SS

Notes:

If Turang slips out of the Top 10, it’s going to be hard for many teams in the rest of the draft class to match his reported asking price. Scouts now say that he could end up making it to Louisiana State, something that seemed impossible when the season began. That would still be extremely surprising to actually see happen, and teams like the Rays and Royals have plenty of pool space to pop Turang and sign him.

 

VIDEO

17

3ds_angels87.jpg

Ethan Hankins

Forsyth Central HS, Cumming, Ga. RHP

Notes:

Hankins has looked better on the mound in recent weeks as he continues to build innings after missing a few starts with a scapula issue, and his camp is confident that a clean MRI will allow teams to worry less as well. He isn’t quite back to the summer form that had him as the best player in the high school class, but he’s trending in the right direction and currently could be on the board as high as No. 8.

 

VIDEO

18

3ds_royals29.jpg

Jordyn Adams

Green Hope HS, Cary, N.C. OF

Notes:

Adams is going to rightfully command a big bonus as a two-way commit with prospects on the football field as well as the diamond, and recently evaluators have even compared the North Carolina outfielder to Byron Buxton. Buxton’s 2012 scouting report sounds eerily similar to Adams, although at this point Adams has less track record than Buxton had.

 

VIDEO

19

3ds_cardinals81.jpg

Parker Meadows

Grayson (Ga.) HS OF

Notes:

Meadows would be a slightly off-the-board selection here at No. 18, but St. Louis has been in on the toolsy Georgia outfielder all spring and had no reservations taking prep outfielder Dylan Carlson at No. 33 two years ago.

 

VIDEO

20

3ds_twins81.jpg

Jackson Kowar

Florida RHP

Notes:

Kowar could be in the mix throughout the teens, but makes some sense for the Twins as a polished college arm who could move quickly through the system and impact a major league club that’s set on contending.

 

VIDEO

21

3ds_brewers76

Trevor Larnach

Oregon State OF

Notes:

Larnach has been one of college baseball’s most improved hitters this season and has maintained his power throughout the season in the Pac-12.

 

VIDEO

22

3ds_rockies77.jpg

Kumar Rocker

North Oconee HS, Bogart, Ga. RHP

Notes:

Rocker to the Rockies. It makes sense phonetically and philosophically as Colorado loves to go after power arms. Fellow Georgia product Cole Wilcox might be in the mix here as well, as he recently out pitched Rocker in a big-time playoff matchup and has seen steady improvement this spring. Wilcox may be higher than Rocker on some teams’ boards, but Rocker has a longer history of showing major league caliber stuff.

 

VIDEO

23

3ds_yankees85

Triston Casas

American Heritage School, Plantation, Fla. 1B

Notes:

It’s sounding like the Yankees want to go after a hitter at No. 23. The major league team currently has some of the biggest sluggers in baseball so maybe they’ll try and replicate the success of Aaron Judge with Triston Casas, who has an imposing frame, a patient approach and serious raw power. Georgia catcher Anthony Seigler might start to be in play in this range as well, as scouting director Damon Oppenheimer has seen him multiple times.

 

VIDEO

24

3ds_cubs74

Anthony Seigler

Cartersville (Ga.) HS C

Notes:

Seigler has done a lot to raise his stock this spring, hitting with authority from both sides of the plate and playing solid defense behind the plate. At this point he should be the first prep catcher off the board aside from Noah Naylor (who many teams might prefer to push as a third baseman) and several teams sound interested in this range.

 

VIDEO

25

3ds_diamondbacks19.jpg

Ryan Weathers

Loretto (Tenn.) HS LHP

Notes:

It’s possible that Weathers is gone long before 25. Teams have regularly said he fits in the middle of the first round and he’s pitched well this spring. This mock would have the D-backs taking the best player available. They could also opt for a college bat.

[BlueRocky]

Much appreciated!

[TheHurl]

BA has done a great job of making it difficult to cut and paste their stuff.

[Spanky99]

BA has done a great job of making it difficult to cut and paste their stuff.

 

lulz... punanni

[Spanky99]

My eyes are bleeding... this plagiarism is a joke.

[Krylian]

My eyes are bleeding... this plagiarism is a joke.

 

No plagiarism. He's not trying to pass it off as his own. Everyone knows it's from BA.

[TheHurl]

Eierman is still interesting. Considering his 3 for 30 start his overall numbers are are similar to last year. Slight drop in BB rate, but lowered the K-rate too. Now slashing .302/.390/.350 (.313/.410/.650 ish last year) but the HR's have dropped from 23 to 9. He's projected anywhere from end of the 1st round to the 3rd round.