General 2018 Blue Jays Discussion Thread

[Olerud363]

1) Lineup protection is a pretty tired point IMO

2) Seems like he has no issues taking his walks

3) Bo will be up soon enough and probably hitting in front of Guerrero

4) For 2019 they still have Smoak under contract

5) I'm not sure if there are pitches that a Vladimir Guerroro shouldn't swing at. He can probably hit anything so it doesn't matter

6) Teoscar "The Mirage" Hernandez is going to break out like JD Martinez any day now

7) Billy McKinney has all the looks of a Justin Upton type hitter

 

Could someone explain this to me again...

 

1. If Vladimir Guerrero is given good pitches to hit, he is a .330 .400 .550 hitter.

2. Vladimir has no protection, the pitchers don't have to pitch to him, so they use a new pitching pattern where he gets no pitches to hit.

 

a) Vladimir is patient, he ends up being a .315 .450 .530 hitter. He doesn't swing at the bad pitches so gets loads of walks, maybe he loses a little bit of average and power. Maybe not.

 

or

 

Vladimir is not really as patient as we think, the new pattern makes him a .270 .330 .450 hitter

 

if a) it's not a problem as Vlad is still awesome. If he's screwed anyway because in this day and age they'll just use the "no pitches to hit" pitching pattern regardless of who's behind him, if it really makes him a worse hitter.

[Laika]

As usual, Olerud cuts through the ********.

 

If a hitter is so bad that they can't help but chase s*** pitches then eventually they'll just get nothing but s*** pitches regardless of who is hitting around them.

The theory of lineup production is just a vestigial aspect of an era when people cared about RBI.

[Pendleton]

As usual, Olerud cuts through the ********.

 

If a hitter is so bad that they can't help but chase s*** pitches then eventually they'll just get nothing but s*** pitches regardless of who is hitting around them.

The theory of lineup production is just a vestigial aspect of an era when people cared about RBI.

 

There was a Jays hitter a few years back (I think it was Thames) who was placed in the two spot ahead of Bautista and we heard endlessly that teams would have to feed him a steady stream of fastballs with Bautista's protection. Of course Thames proceeded to chase low breaking pitches all the way to Korea before finally learning to lay off.

[43211234]

Fun facts: Mookie Betts has 64 RBI on the season.

 

Mike Trout has 60.

 

Aaron Judge has 61.

 

Adam Duvall (74 wRC+) has 61!

 

Ian Desmond (84 wRC+) has 67!

[Brownie19]

As usual, Olerud cuts through the ********.

 

If a hitter is so bad that they can't help but chase s*** pitches then eventually they'll just get nothing but s*** pitches regardless of who is hitting around them.

The theory of lineup production is just a vestigial aspect of an era when people cared about RBI.

 

Completely agree...but I still have a hard time with it - as in theory, you would think pitchers would "pitch around" a great hitter in a tight situation if the hitter behind him was significantly worse. I still pitch - and I do this......but the numbers don't support it. Anyone care to learn me?

[Spanky__99]

Mon, Aug 20

 

Aaron Sanchez (finger) could rejoin the Blue Jays' rotation Saturday against the Phillies.

 

Advice: It depends on how his third rehab start with Double-A New Hampshire goes on Monday, as Sanchez hasn't pitched very well in his first two rehab outings. He's been out since late June due to discomfort in his right middle finger and fantasy owners should take a wait-and-see approach with him when he does return.

 

More: Ben Nicholson-Smith on Twitter

 

Fugly line...

 

https://www.mlb.com/bluejays/prospects/stats/affiliates

[glory]

Player A: 108 wRC+, 0.4 WAR, 10.4 BB%, 22.2 K%, 442 PA

Player B: 107 wRC+, 0.4 WAR, 11.1 BB%, 19.9 K%, 377 PA

 

A is Edwin, B is Morales.

 

This is the world we live in on August 21.

[BTS]

Mildly surprised Smoak cleared waivers

[glory]

If the Jays aren't going to dump Morales next year then trade Smoak now, move Kendrys to 1B, and either play Tellez (not a fan of him but whatever) or put Hernandez there.

[Laika]

Completely agree...but I still have a hard time with it - as in theory, you would think pitchers would "pitch around" a great hitter in a tight situation if the hitter behind him was significantly worse. I still pitch - and I do this......but the numbers don't support it. Anyone care to learn me?

 

A few things come to mind.

 

1) When there is a "great hitter" the guy behind him is almost always going to be significantly worse, even if the guy behind him is himself a decent hitter.

2) If you as the team have the luxury of stacking great hitters together, who really gives a f*** about something like lineup protection at that point anyway? The concept, if it exists, would be of such marginal importance.

3) "Pitching around" someone is often stupid from a defensive perspective. Letting people walk to first with little effort is not a viable long-term strategy to avoid getting scored on. It really is only advisable in very specific scenarios.

[Boxcar]

Mon, Aug 20

 

Aaron Sanchez (finger) could rejoin the Blue Jays' rotation Saturday against the Phillies.

 

Advice: It depends on how his third rehab start with Double-A New Hampshire goes on Monday, as Sanchez hasn't pitched very well in his first two rehab outings. He's been out since late June due to discomfort in his right middle finger and fantasy owners should take a wait-and-see approach with him when he does return.

 

More: Ben Nicholson-Smith on Twitter

 

Fugly line...

 

https://www.mlb.com/bluejays/prospects/stats/affiliates

 

A wait and see approach? Wait and see what, if he still sucks complete dick?

 

Same f***ing publication that advised me not to start Zach Eflin until like after the AS break.

[Boxcar]

A few things come to mind.

 

1) When there is a "great hitter" the guy behind him is almost always going to be significantly worse, even if the guy behind him is himself a decent hitter.

2) If you as the team have the luxury of stacking great hitters together, who really gives a f*** about something like lineup protection at that point anyway? The concept, if it exists, would be of such marginal importance.

3) "Pitching around" someone is often stupid from a defensive perspective. Letting people walk to first with little effort is not a viable long-term strategy to avoid getting scored on. It really is only advisable in very specific scenarios.

 

Case in point, Barry Bonds was miles better than anyone you could stack around him, was pitched around like crazy and still managed to hit the most dongers in MLB history, both single season and career.

[onwego]

Case in point, Barry Bonds was miles better than anyone you could stack around him, was pitched around like crazy and still managed to hit the most dongers in MLB history, both single season and career.

 

did they ever intentionally walk him with the bases loaded?

[vdubmvp]

did they ever intentionally walk him with the bases loaded?

 

[Brownie19]

Case in point, Barry Bonds was miles better than anyone you could stack around him, was pitched around like crazy and still managed to hit the most dongers in MLB history, both single season and career.

 

Yeah but what if there isn't as big of a drop? What if Mike Trout hit behind Bonds - do they walk him as much? Does he hit even more HR's?

 

Again - I realise the numbers suggest lineup protection isn't at thing, but mentally, if Bonds is up in the 9th with the tying run is at 2nd and 2 outs and Rich Aurilia is on deck - I'm going to make Aurilia beat me. If Trout is on deck, well f*** me, I might pitch to Bonds.

 

Flip it around, if Jeff Kent is up in the 9th with the tying run is at 2nd and 2 outs and Barry Bonds is on deck - I'm sure as f*** going to go right after Kent. There's no way in hell I'm going to walk him and bring Bonds up.

 

 

I think it exists - just there are so few situations that arise like that during the course of a season that it ends up being negligible...

[Brownie19]

A wait and see approach? Wait and see what, if he still sucks complete dick?

 

Same f***ing publication that advised me not to start Zach Eflin until like after the AS break.

 

If the Jays really cared about Sanchez's performance in the minors - he'd have never pitched in the majors...

[TheHurl]

If the Jays aren't going to dump Morales next year then trade Smoak now, move Kendrys to 1B, and either play Tellez (not a fan of him but whatever) or put Hernandez there.

 

121 wRC+ (1.5 fWAR) since May 1st. If they feel there was a fundamental change which could carry forward to next year I'd say just keep him around. No big deal if you dump him though. I just hope that Rowdy is in Buffalo or some other org.

[Laika]

Yeah but what if there isn't as big of a drop? What if Mike Trout hit behind Bonds - do they walk him as much? Does he hit even more HR's?

 

Again - I realise the numbers suggest lineup protection isn't at thing, but mentally, if Bonds is up in the 9th with the tying run is at 2nd and 2 outs and Rich Aurilia is on deck - I'm going to make Aurilia beat me. If Trout is on deck, well f*** me, I might pitch to Bonds.

 

Flip it around, if Jeff Kent is up in the 9th with the tying run is at 2nd and 2 outs and Barry Bonds is on deck - I'm sure as f*** going to go right after Kent. There's no way in hell I'm going to walk him and bring Bonds up.

 

I think it exists - just there are so few situations that arise like that during the course of a season that it ends up being negligible...

 

I guess these are two different questions. Very similar but different.

 

1) Does lineup protection exist in theory and affect players/managers in certain instances? Sure.

2) Is lineup protection something that management/GMs should ever worry about at all when a) building a roster or considering player development? No.

[Boxcar]

did they ever intentionally walk him with the bases loaded?

 

I believe it happened twice and one of those was the result of managerial genius Buckerton Showalter

[Olerud363]

I guess these are two different questions. Very similar but different.

 

1) Does lineup protection exist in theory and affect players/managers in certain instances? Sure.

2) Is lineup protection something that management/GMs should ever worry about at all when a) building a roster or considering player development? No.

 

I remember Bill James wrote an short essay about this in the McGriff-Bell era. To parapharase, he basically said if you want McGriff to hit .280 .530 with 100 walks and 90 RBIs, hit him behind Bell, if you want him to hit .280 .530 with 90 walks and 100 RBIs hit him in front of Bell.

[glory]

121 wRC+ (1.5 fWAR) since May 1st. If they feel there was a fundamental change which could carry forward to next year I'd say just keep him around. No big deal if you dump him though. I just hope that Rowdy is in Buffalo or some other org.

 

I'd trade Rowdy as well if he has any value. I just want Hernandez to be at DH since his D is awful but his statcast numbers are very good so he might have a bit more upside with the bat. Ideally we keep one of Morales or Smoak and dump the other. Since Smoak would in theory have more value, then he makes more sense to trade while Morales can finish out the final year of his deal here and we can move on after 2019.

[KevinGregg]

I remember Bill James wrote an short essay about this in the McGriff-Bell era. To parapharase, he basically said if you want McGriff to hit .280 .530 with 100 walks and 90 RBIs, hit him behind Bell, if you want him to hit .280 .530 with 90 walks and 100 RBIs hit him in front of Bell.

 

Wouldnt the 10 extra walks be worth way more than the 10 extra rbi

[Brownie19]

But you won't.

 

Fine. Pretend Babe Ruth was hitting behind him ffs.

[Spanky__99]

A wait and see approach? Wait and see what, if he still sucks complete dick?

 

Same f***ing publication that advised me not to start Zach Eflin until like after the AS break.

 

Yeah, they're dumn... 42 of his 86 pitches were strikes.:/

[KevinGregg]

Does gaviglio have any kind of future with the team?

[Jonn]

Does gaviglio have any kind of future with the team?

 

Possibly as a long man or a swing man. I certainly hope hes not pencilled in the starting 5 next year. And I see no reason why that scenario would take place. Ideally you would like to have him in Buffalo as starting depth like he began this year.

[glory]

Does gaviglio have any kind of future with the team?

 

Long man out of the pen or AAA depth.

[Krylian]

Long man out of the pen or AAA depth.

 

This. And there's nothing wrong with that.

[Pendleton]

Long man out of the pen or AAA depth.

 

He seems to fit the profile of a long man.

[Spanky__99]

He seems to fit the profile of a long man.

 

lol... or Depth!