General 2018 Blue Jays Discussion Thread

[Krylian]

problem is Josh sees Greinke earning 34 mil. Price over 30. Cabrerra getting 30 until he's 40. Jason Heyward is making 28 mil, Verlander 28 mil, Felix, Lester, Pujols in the 27 mil range.

 

Donaldson has been top 4 in FWAR for 4 years in a row and would have been 5 in a row if he hadn't been injured last year. A 25 mil AAV isn't going to cut it despite his age. A rich team will just eat the bad years on his contract to get the 7 win player for the first 2 years.

 

He also sees what happened in this years FA market. But I guess he's taking a calculated risk.

[saskjayfan]

He also sees what happened in this years FA market. But I guess he's taking a calculated risk.

 

It's such a unique year because most of the big boys outside of Boston are resetting under the luxury tax. Next year there will be multiple teams in on the top of the market and the losers will be looking to Donaldson.

[Fiddlehead]

One has nothing to do with the other. Vladdy isn't going to stick at 3B.

 

You may be right, but we don’t know for sure. On the other hand, Donaldson may not be playing 3rd in 4yrs either.

 

I suspect the FO is thinking they don’t want Donaldson’s salary after this year especially with two studs coming up.

[Brownie19]

problem is Josh sees Greinke earning 34 mil. Price over 30. Cabrerra getting 30 until he's 40. Jason Heyward is making 28 mil, Verlander 28 mil, Felix, Lester, Pujols in the 27 mil range.

 

Donaldson has been top 4 in FWAR for 4 years in a row and would have been 5 in a row if he hadn't been injured last year. A 25 mil AAV isn't going to cut it despite his age. A rich team will just eat the bad years on his contract to get the 7 win player for the first 2 years.

 

He can also look at Justin Turner, who's better than everyone you listed above and an excellent comp for JD and see he just signed a 4 year deal at $16M AAV.

[Bobthe4th]

He can also look at Justin Turner, who's better than everyone you listed above and an excellent comp for JD and see he just signed a 4 year deal at $16M AAV.

 

Not really - Turner had never earned more than $5.1m, wasn't a superstar, and took a significant hometown discount because he loved the situation with the Dodgers.

[saskjayfan]

He can also look at Justin Turner, who's better than everyone you listed above and an excellent comp for JD and see he just signed a 4 year deal at $16M AAV.

 

I know Josh was a late bloomer, but Turner didn't have his first productive season until his age 29 season and he only played 109 games. In his age 30 and 31 seasons he had two very good seasons that averaged out to 4.7 wins a season. Then he signed his contract. Donaldson has averaged 7 wins a season since his age 27 season. There's no doubt Turner took a discount because he liked his situation and in his first season of his contract he had one of his best seasons so the contract looks great, but the two players are not exactly an apples to apples comparison.

 

Revenues are on the rise and Donaldson's contract will come 2 years later after most of the big clubs reset under the luxury tax.

[AledmysDiaz]

With Zips incorporated, Fangraphs now has the Jays projected for 86 Wins, but they have Travis and Tulo projected for 4.1 wins. Diaz and Solarte are projected to be worth 1 win in Total. So the keys to the Jays success really is Solarte and Diaz having good seasons making up for the lost at bats for Travis and Tulo.

 

Its hard to see where other wins come from. Donaldson is already projected to be worth 6 wins, and the starting rotation is projected to be 13.7 wins. The only place to look at are the corner outfields, which are projected to be about a win and a half each. So in order for the Jays to surprise and be in a WC position, they would need:

 

Middle infield to provide about 5 wins with a combination of Tulo, Travis, Solarte and Diaz,

Surprises from the corner outfield positions from the young group of Alford, Hernandez, Pompey, etc.

 

If those two things happen, Jays will compete for a WC spot. If they dont, this is a 77-81 win team. Lots of areas where things can go wrong, including Starting Rotation and Catcher position.

[Krylian]

You may be right, but we don’t know for sure. On the other hand, Donaldson may not be playing 3rd in 4yrs either.

 

I suspect the FO is thinking they don’t want Donaldson’s salary after this year especially with two studs coming up.

 

The two studs will be cheap for years. I still fail to see what one has to do with the other. The goal is to add talent. JD will be expensive talent, Vladdy and Bo will be cheap talent. If the fear is term or dollars, because they're not sure JD will sustain his production for years to come than that's fine But letting someone walk because 2 prospects are almost ready really isn't a managerial strategy that I can envision being logical.

[Spanky99]

With Zips incorporated, Fangraphs now has the Jays projected for 86 Wins, but they have Travis and Tulo projected for 4.1 wins. Diaz and Solarte are projected to be worth 1 win in Total. So the keys to the Jays success really is Solarte and Diaz having good seasons making up for the lost at bats for Travis and Tulo.

 

That total is truncated because of projected GP/PA's, better to use Steamer 600 to compare the 4 of them, I would think.

 

Solarte/Diaz Steamer 600... 3.8 fWAR

 

Tulo/Travis Steamer 600... 5 fWAR

 

That's excellent depth up the middle.

[Spanky99]

You may be right, but we don’t know for sure. On the other hand, Donaldson may not be playing 3rd in 4yrs either.

 

I suspect the FO is thinking they don’t want Donaldson’s salary after this year especially with two studs coming up.

 

Or have a veteran stud, play with 2 young studs coming up?

[Brownie19]

Not really - Turner had never earned more than $5.1m, wasn't a superstar, and took a significant hometown discount because he loved the situation with the Dodgers.

 

I know Josh was a late bloomer, but Turner didn't have his first productive season until his age 29 season and he only played 109 games. In his age 30 and 31 seasons he had two very good seasons that averaged out to 4.7 wins a season. Then he signed his contract. Donaldson has averaged 7 wins a season since his age 27 season. There's no doubt Turner took a discount because he liked his situation and in his first season of his contract he had one of his best seasons so the contract looks great, but the two players are not exactly an apples to apples comparison.

 

Revenues are on the rise and Donaldson's contract will come 2 years later after most of the big clubs reset under the luxury tax.

 

Turner was coming off a 5.5 WAR season at age 32 when he signed his 4 yr $64M contract. JD posted a 5 WAR season last year and is projected to post a 6 WAR season this year at age 32. This isn't 2004 - nobody is going to pay for what JD did back in 2015 - they are going to pay for what's he's projected to do over the course of his new contract. There probably isn't a better comp for JD in baseball given the position, age and skill set.

[G-Snarls]

You may be right, but we don’t know for sure. On the other hand, Donaldson may not be playing 3rd in 4yrs either.

 

I suspect the FO is thinking they don’t want Donaldson’s salary after this year especially with two studs coming up.

 

As of 2020, Tulo's salary drops and Martin is off the books

 

I don't think they're scared of the money over the next two years and Donaldson is already getting 21M this year in an arb year. A bump to 25M for a few years is probably perfectly manageable, it's just how many years it takes to make him agree and the late 30's decline that's the issue

[burlingtonbandit]

Turner was coming off a 5.5 WAR season at age 32 when he signed his 4 yr $64M contract. JD posted a 5 WAR season last year and is projected to post a 6 WAR season this year at age 32. This isn't 2004 - nobody is going to pay for what JD did back in 2015 - they are going to pay for what's he's projected to do over the course of his new contract. There probably isn't a better comp for JD in baseball given the position, age and skill set.

 

Donaldson is a lot better than Turner. I agree he isn't going to get a 6 or 7 year deal but he's at least going to get 100 Million. He's been the best player outside of Trout the last 5 years.

[AledmysDiaz]

That total is truncated because of projected GP/PA's, better to use Steamer 600 to compare the 4 of them, I would think.

 

Solarte/Diaz Steamer 600... 3.8 fWAR

 

Tulo/Travis Steamer 600... 5 fWAR

 

That's excellent depth up the middle.

 

Yes it is, they have done a great job raising the floor with middle infield, starting pitching and the outfield all improved. The only remaining area where I thought that there would be an improvement is backup catcher, but maybe they like Jansen to surprise in spring training.

[G-Snarls]

Donaldson is a lot better than Turner. I agree he isn't going to get a 6 or 7 year deal but he's at least going to get 100 Million. He's been the best player outside of Trout the last 5 years.

 

He and Altuve are neck and neck for 2nd in WAR over that time frame

[Brownie19]

Donaldson is a lot better than Turner. I agree he isn't going to get a 6 or 7 year deal but he's at least going to get 100 Million. He's been the best player outside of Trout the last 5 years.

 

Again. You don't sign him based on what he's done the past 5 years. You sign him based on what you think he'll do over the NEXT 5 years.

 

My point was that if JD is going to look at Grienke, Price, Miggy, Heyward, etc. and say he deserves $30M+, then there's a perfectly good counter argument that Justin Turner just signed a 4 year $64M deal. It's going to be interesting to see how this all plays out. Personally, I think GM's are looking at Miggy, Pujols, Price, Heyward, Chris Davis, etc., etc. and realizing the risk of the 7 year, $25-$30M deals is super high. These deals are crippling franchises around baseball and it's no longer worth it.

[Bobthe4th]

Turner was coming off a 5.5 WAR season at age 32 when he signed his 4 yr $64M contract. JD posted a 5 WAR season last year and is projected to post a 6 WAR season this year at age 32. This isn't 2004 - nobody is going to pay for what JD did back in 2015 - they are going to pay for what's he's projected to do over the course of his new contract. There probably isn't a better comp for JD in baseball given the position, age and skill set.

 

Part of the process of creating projections look at past history. It’s not as simple as just taking last year’s performance and extrapolating it.

 

JD projects to 6WAR and if he’s fit for the majority of the season that’s conservative. Turner at the time of his contract had gone from 3 to 4 to 5 WAR in consecutive seasons from nothing. He’d have been projected for around 4 WAR, i.e. 50% less than JD.

 

Turner possibly is the best comparison, but he’s not on the same level so if anything that’s helps JD ask for more.

 

Could see JD getting a front loaded contract at $30m for the first few years, with an opt out.

[Shart]

If JD thinks he will perform at a high level for the next 8 years, then take a 4 year deal and you will have no issues getting paid after that's up. The risk I these 7-8 year deals is all on the teams.

[Terminator]

Seems to me like Turner just got a raw deal anyway. I don't know if he gave the Dodgers a hometown discount or what but at the time the deal was signed most of the takes were about how much money he was leaving on the table. Maybe that was due to a tempered market but it seemed like something more was going on.

[Bobthe4th]

Seems to me like Turner just got a raw deal anyway. I don't know if he gave the Dodgers a hometown discount or what but at the time the deal was signed most of the takes were about how much money he was leaving on the table. Maybe that was due to a tempered market but it seemed like something more was going on.

 

It was reported that Turner really wanted to stay and deliberately took a hometown discount. The Nationals offered him a larger deal.

[G-Snarls]

It was reported that Turner really wanted to stay and deliberately took a hometown discount. The Nationals offered him a larger deal.

 

Must be nice running a team where you have a massive budget and yet people like Turner and Jansen take less money to stay with you anyway

[Terminator]

It was reported that Turner really wanted to stay and deliberately took a hometown discount. The Nationals offered him a larger deal.

 

Right so Turner was an anomaly. Can't look at what he took and apply it to anything else really.

[Bobthe4th]

Right so Turner was an anomaly. Can't look at what he took and apply it to anything else really.

 

Yeah exactly.

[metafour]

Again. You don't sign him based on what he's done the past 5 years. You sign him based on what you think he'll do over the NEXT 5 years.

 

My point was that if JD is going to look at Grienke, Price, Miggy, Heyward, etc. and say he deserves $30M+, then there's a perfectly good counter argument that Justin Turner just signed a 4 year $64M deal. It's going to be interesting to see how this all plays out. Personally, I think GM's are looking at Miggy, Pujols, Price, Heyward, Chris Davis, etc., etc. and realizing the risk of the 7 year, $25-$30M deals is super high. These deals are crippling franchises around baseball and it's no longer worth it.

 

Justin Turner was an anomaly; an under-recognized player who obviously took a huge discount to stay in LA. Yoenis Cespedes signed for 4 years, $110 million in that same free agency period and Donaldson is even better than Cespedes. Donaldson is a pretty safe bet for a contract that approaches ~$150 million IMO.

[Brownie19]

Justin Turner was an anomaly; an under-recognized player who obviously took a huge discount to stay in LA. Yoenis Cespedes signed for 4 years, $110 million in that same free agency period and Donaldson is even better than Cespedes. Donaldson is a pretty safe bet for a contract that approaches ~$150 million IMO.

 

How's that working out for the Mets? 1.8 WAR last yr and protected for 2.7 this year.

[bones10]

https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=Standings

 

Fangraphs has us over the angels and in the second wild card spot

[G-Snarls]

[Muck Bartinez]

https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=Standings

 

Fangraphs has us over the angels and in the second wild card spot

 

2017 runs scored per game = 4.28

2018 runs scored per game = 5.06 (proj.)

 

They have us at 5th in the league in runs per game. Last year we were tied for 25th. That would be one hell of a turnaround. Taking the 1042 (!!!) PA that Goins/Barney/Refsnyder/Coghlan/Urena got last year and giving them to Diaz/Solarte (or, fingers crossed, some to Travis/Tulo) should help a lot. I'd also love to see the 237 Maile/Montero PA's given to someone half decent, but there's only Lucroy, Ruiz, and Soto out there now.

 

2017 runs allowed per game = 4.84

2018 runs allowed per game = 4.73 (proj.)

 

A slight improvement in run prevention is a lot easier to see than the huge offensive one IMO. If Biagini goes to the pen and replicates some of his success, Garcia is semi-decent, and Sanchez stays moderately healthy, that projection should hold true. Not to mention no Bautista bleeding runs on the defensive side of the ball.

 

Of course, Ohtani's 3.6 WAR projection (3.0 SP + 0.6 DH) could look pretty silly and blast us out of contention in a hurry. Still, there's lots of reason to be optimistic for this season despite the pure s*** that was 2017.

[Jimcanuck]

hard to see anything less than 5/150 for JD

[polar bear]

As much as I love Josh,I say if a deal is

going to be made,it’s got to made for

good for the team,not Donaldson.

The sooner he lets us know

what his plans are the better.

Don’t like being held to ransom.