Phillies in on Stroman

[TheHurl]

They're not going to blow it up. I just think they should. I guess I'll have to wait and see how 2018 plays out and if Shapiro and Atkins are seeing something that I'm just not seeing. I hope there's something there. I'm not not optimistic.

 

Steamer still has us projected 6th. Angels 5th and only the Twins really close behind. That's with 0.5 wins in RF and Estrada with a 5.08 FIP

[Bobthe4th]

signing JD (or Machado) comes with financial risk, but it puts the Jays in that same good position if Bo and Vlad progress as expected. We are assuming that there is zero chance of this happening. But this is not a team that has just one option. And amazingly enough...moves can happen during the season...or even next season.

 

Exactly, any team can acquire very good players (including their own prospects turning into good players).

[Bobthe4th]

This core is not good enough and I don't see a way that it's going to get better. Our best prospects aren't ready yet, and even when they are, there are a lot of holes.

 

Even the most optimistic fan doesn’t think that the Jays are serious World Series contenders this year. But I believe that it’s too early to blow it up. I think the desire to rush to rebuild is driven by a worry that it won’t happen when it needs to, and that we’d experience another long period of mediocrity.

 

If this season is as bad as last season, i.e. injuries, prospects not developing into contributors, older players declining, and a losing season, then a rebuild is much more likely. However, I don’t believe that is inevitable - and if enough is shown for a core of players to be built around we have the bonus that Bo and/or Vlad could be ready as early as 2019.

 

Patching up the holes with mediocre FA signings isn't the way to build a championship team.

 

But it’s the right thing to do to buy a bit of time to see if your team is ready to make a step to the next level in a year or 2. If we’re not, then we haven’t added any mega contracts or traded away any more significant prospects.

[Farm]

Even the most optimistic fan doesn’t think that the Jays are serious World Series contenders this year. But I believe that it’s too early to blow it up. I think the desire to rush to rebuild is driven by a worry that it won’t happen when it needs to, and that we’d experience another long period of mediocrity.

 

If this season is as bad as last season, i.e. injuries, prospects not developing into contributors, older players declining, and a losing season, then a rebuild is much more likely. However, I don’t believe that is inevitable - and if enough is shown for a core of players to be built around we have the bonus that Bo and/or Vlad could be ready as early as 2019.

 

 

 

But it’s the right thing to do to buy a bit of time to see if your team is ready to make a step to the next level in a year or 2. If we’re not, then we haven’t added any mega contracts or traded away any more significant prospects.

 

The issue with this line of thinking is that good contracts decline in value with time. I'm not saying that don't have a chance of lucking our way over the course of a 162 game season into a wildcard birth, but doing so consistently is unsustainable.

 

Toronto fans are fair. We want a perennial contender, and if we aren't at that stage then what we want is a direct way and plan of getting there, as opposed to prolonged mediocrity.

 

With smart management and a top 10 payroll, it's obviously possible to slowly trend towards perennial contender status with shrewd transactions even as we play the hope-for-the-best-wildcard-mediocrity route. The question then becomes how quickly we would like to become elite. Do we trade some of our best expiring contracts to maximize the value and aim to jumpstart the path towards elite status in 2-3 years with a worse team in the short term, or do we grind it out and slowly get there in 4-5 years with a better team for now.

 

A relevant question is the impact on viewership that particular choice has. Will being worse in the short term heavily impact attendance and views? Possibly. But part of me suspects that Toronto fans are more supportive than other fanbases for genuine attempts at rebuilds than other cities. Not to mention that Toronto fans may also be more prone to "switching" amongst the three major sports (basketball, hockey, baseball) when the fanbase feels that management is content with mediocrity.

 

For me the choice is clear. I've been a serious Blue Jays fan since around 2011 when I started checking Blue Jays prospects sites daily. I'm not as big a fan as some of you on here but I'm more invested in the Jays than the average fan. And I would not hesitate to switch to the Leafs and Raptors for a while if I don't feel like the Jays are legitimate contenders or somehow exciting in some arbitrary way, especially considering how well the Leafs and Raptors are doing.

 

I understand that they want to keep the goodwill created from the 2015-2017 seasons, but I'm not sure this mediocre approach is the way to go. Baseball is a standalone sport for a decent chunk of the season, meaning they won't be competing with the Raptors and Leafs anyways. Whether they are a 80 or 85 true talent team might not have a big impact on viewership anyways, especially if they bring in some exciting young names or new players. I suspect that many Toronto fans might not stay long if they have to watch another year of Stroman's douchebaggery on a 83 win team.

 

Anyways, just some food for thought. Perhaps could be a start to a interesting discussion or just some more rambling (which I tend to do on these forums).

[Farm]

I just want to add that trading Donaldson is a no brainer for me. Even trading 5 wins for 20 million all coming in one year on a 85 win team for 5 undiscounted wins in the future distributed in whatever way you want would be worth it if the future wins come at a time when we are more likely to be elite.

 

I think you can trade pitching during the deadline for close to full value but position players is a bigger question mark. Trade Donaldson, possibly trade our pitchers later. But we really should trade Donaldson away now and I feel quite strongly about this. I mean what if we had already traded Donaldson and signed Cosart to that contract or even a contract at 1.5x what was given.

[Jimcanuck]

Good posts. Need you to post more, Farm!

 

Vladdy No. 2 in baseball at 18, insane plate discipline and power potential. There cannot be any question that building around Vlad has to be the Jays mantra. Move JD (and others) for guys that fit with Vlad's timeline. Jays and their owners can withstand a few lean years, fans will come back and the revenues will go through the roof again.

[xposbrad]

Good posts. Need you to post more, Farm!

 

Vladdy No. 2 in baseball at 18, insane plate discipline and power potential. There cannot be any question that building around Vlad has to be the Jays mantra. Move JD (and others) for guys that fit with Vlad's timeline. Jays and their owners can withstand a few lean years, fans will come back and the revenues will go through the roof again.

 

Ya, but it doesn't look like the Jays want to completely rebuild, which is why this club will probably be fighting to be a mediocre team or good but not good enough for playoffs etc..They need at least 4-5 other tier 1 prospects coming up at the same time. No cheap stuff from ownership when they need to add pieces in the future.

 

If they waste this opportunity and just try to compete now without stockpiling high end prospects when they realistically have no shot in the next year or two, it will be extremely upsetting.

[SaskJaysFan_2]

Essentially you are saying the same thing I believe. I would rather watch a middling team that is young and full of potential than a veteran, salary-bloated, team that is middling.

 

We need to trade JD and get rid of Morales somehow.

[SaskJaysFan_2]

I just want to add that trading Donaldson is a no brainer for me. Even trading 5 wins for 20 million all coming in one year on a 85 win team for 5 undiscounted wins in the future distributed in whatever way you want would be worth it if the future wins come at a time when we are more likely to be elite.

 

I think you can trade pitching during the deadline for close to full value but position players is a bigger question mark. Trade Donaldson, possibly trade our pitchers later. But we really should trade Donaldson away now and I feel quite strongly about this. I mean what if we had already traded Donaldson and signed Cosart to that contract or even a contract at 1.5x what was given.

 

It's crappy that two other all-stars 3Bs are also on the market (Longoria and Machado). I think if they weren't we'd have a deal already.

[Cbert]

It's crappy that two other all-stars 3Bs are also on the market (Longoria and Machado). I think if they weren't we'd have a deal already.

 

The Cards and Jays match up well. It’s true that the 3B market is jammed up right now with multiple guys available in trade. The Jays should sweeten the pot by offering up Osuna, too. No point in wasting his cheap years on a middling team when he could fetch up to 3 top prospects alone. If the Jays are looking to turn things around within 2-3 years, the Cards have quite a few guys in the upper minors. I’d target Gyorko, Reyes, Flaherty and Bader as a start.

 

If you can sign Cain and play Gyorko at third, then it’s no worse than Donaldson and the crap we threw out everyday in the outfield last year. Then add Reyes to the rotation and that’s a team that can still compete for a WC, while stockpiling for the future. Also, there’s 20mill or more in veteran contracts that come off the books each year for the next few years. That money can be used to extend young guys while eventually adding an impact veteran or two when the young guys are all ready to contribute.

[Jimcanuck]

It's crappy that two other all-stars 3Bs are also on the market (Longoria and Machado). I think if they weren't we'd have a deal already.

 

and potentially Beltre

[Jimcanuck]

The Cards and Jays match up well. It’s true that the 3B market is jammed up right now with multiple guys available in trade. The Jays should sweeten the pot by offering up Osuna, too. No point in wasting his cheap years on a middling team when he could fetch up to 3 top prospects alone. If the Jays are looking to turn things around within 2-3 years, the Cards have quite a few guys in the upper minors. I’d target Gyorko, Reyes, Flaherty and Bader as a start.

 

Can say the same about Stroman. Got to wonder if the Astros, with a logjam in the OF, would move Tucker, Whitley, ++ for Stroman and Osuna.

[saskjayfan]

Essentially you are saying the same thing I believe. I would rather watch a middling team that is young and full of potential than a veteran, salary-bloated, team that is middling.

 

We need to trade JD and get rid of Morales somehow.

 

 

In 2020 we have troy tulowitzki on the books for 14 mil and and Gurriel at just under 3. That's it. Stroman, Sanchez, Travis, osuna and Pillar will be in their last year of arbitration. At this point Vlad and Bichette will be in the picture. There is a path for a Donaldson extension. If you could get a 5 year extension with an option for a 6th with a decent buyout for the player. Everyone is afraid to take risks. We're in a division with the Yankees and Red Sox. Signing Donaldson long term could blow up in your face, but it could work out really well too. By 2020 we're going to have young arms ready to contribute. Hopefully one of the catchers step up. You'll know what you have in Alford and Hernandez. I'm really high on Alford and Reid Foley, but I know many don't share that sentiment.

[Jimcanuck]

In 2020 we have troy tulowitzki on the books for 14 mil and and Gurriel at just under 3. That's it. Stroman, Sanchez, Travis, osuna and Pillar will be in their last year of arbitration. At this point Vlad and Bichette will be in the picture. There is a path for a Donaldson extension. If you could get a 5 year extension with an option for a 6th with a decent buyout for the player. Everyone is afraid to take risks. We're in a division with the Yankees and Red Sox. Signing Donaldson long term could blow up in your face, but it could work out really well too. By 2020 we're going to have young arms ready to contribute. Hopefully one of the catchers step up. You'll know what you have in Alford and Hernandez. I'm really high on Alford and Reid Foley, but I know many don't share that sentiment.

 

Trying to sign Donaldson is the correct path if fair return in trade is not available. Although I am pretty sure JD is headed for the FA market regardless.

[glory]

Also the narrative that it’s impossible for the team to be good for a number of years - the only thing that guarantees that is if a full rebuild happens.

 

Yeah, I'm in the "trade or extend JD" camp, but the people thinking we have to detonate the entire roster for five years just to become good again are making it too simplistic. The Yankees team right now is young and on the rise and they did that without any down period. Hell, they were trying to get down to below the luxury tax during their transition years and still made the playoffs twice during that time (2015 and 17). That 2015 team that won the 1st wild card had exactly one starting position player under the age of 30. Two years later, the team went back to the playoffs with one of the brightest young cores in the game. There's a lot of s*** that happens during the course of a baseball season that can change perspectives, nevermind over the course of many seasons.

 

Shatkins have to make smart decisions. They have to guess right more than wrong. That comes with the territory, but they don't have to trade everyone and put scabs on the field for half a decade just to compete with the Yankees. There will be a transition period after 2018, I don't think that's avoidable, but they can rebuild and try to remain competitive for their owners at the same time. Puts a lot of pressure on their player development dept and drafting, but they seem to be very confident in that part of their org anyway, so let's see what they do.

[Jimcanuck]

Doesn't need to be 5 years.... a series of smart moves and the Jays can have one of the youngest, exciting teams in baseball in 3 (2020)

[Cbert]

Can say the same about Stroman. Got to wonder if the Astros, with a logjam in the OF, would move Tucker, Whitley, ++ for Stroman and Osuna.

 

As much as he annoys me, I would look at extending him before exploring trades. He’s young enough that he can be a part of a short rebuild. I’d love to extend Osuna but I want to trade him mainly because of the high returns on closers.

[Spanky99]

As much as he annoys me, I would look at extending him before exploring trades. He’s young enough that he can be a part of a short rebuild. I’d love to extend Osuna but I want to trade him mainly because of the high returns on closers.

 

Stroman loves Toronto, and hinted on social media in early November(4th?), he'd like to explore an extension.

[Cbert]

Stroman loves Toronto, and hinted on social media in early November(4th?), he'd like to explore an extension.

 

Doesn’t surprise me, but what would an extension look like for him? He has what, 3 years of control left? If we offered 6-7 years, could we get him for less than 20mill AAV?

[Cbert]

I would never sign a pitcher to a contract extension when we have 3 years of control still left.

 

It is risky, but if it means we could extend him for 6 years 100 million instead of waiting two

more years and extending him for closer to 30mill per year, I’d consider it. I’d risk it with Stroman, but would wait it out with someone like Sanchez because of the blister. I’d want to see a huge bounce back next year before I’d even entertain the idea of extending him.

[Spanky99]

Doesn’t surprise me, but what would an extension look like for him? He has what, 3 years of control left? If we offered 6-7 years, could we get him for less than 20mill AAV?

 

No doubt, as said it's risky with arms. Somewhere in the 16-18M range. I'd be open to that.

[Spanky99]

It is risky, but if it means we could extend him for 6 years 100 million instead of waiting two

more years and extending him for closer to 30mill per year, I’d consider it. I’d risk it with Stroman, but would wait it out with someone like Sanchez because of the blister. I’d want to see a huge bounce back next year before I’d even entertain the idea of extending him.

 

Sanchez wouldn't talk extension, not with Scotty as his agent...

[Cbert]

Sanchez wouldn't talk extension, not with Scotty as his agent...

 

Ha yeah, that’s the other reason why I wouldn’t waste my time talking with him.

[Orgfiller]

I would never sign a pitcher to a contract extension when we have 3 years of control still left.

 

This is also how you never end up with Chris Archer type deals. There's a lot of risk and a lot of reward, you just gotta determine which one has more weight towards the future.

[Spanky99]

This is also how you never end up with Chris Archer type deals. There's a lot of risk and a lot of reward, you just gotta determine which one has more weight towards the future.

 

That's exactly whom I thought of.

[polar bear]

Hopefully this is all media guessing.For me Stroman is the last one Id think of trading.

For those saying he is overrated,Yeah! Right.

[Krylian]

Hopefully this is all media guessing.For me Stroman is the last one Id think of trading.

For those saying he is overrated,Yeah! Right.

 

Are there people saying he's overrated?

[Spanky99]

Hopefully this is all media guessing.For me Stroman is the last one Id think of trading.

For those saying he is overrated,Yeah! Right.

 

Who's said he was over-rated? Oh... D52/bill/gbill/clevelandsteamer/shart amongst many other monikers, he doesn't count, that's bait.

[John_Havok]

It is risky, but if it means we could extend him for 6 years 100 million instead of waiting two

more years and extending him for closer to 30mill per year, I’d consider it. I’d risk it with Stroman, but would wait it out with someone like Sanchez because of the blister. I’d want to see a huge bounce back next year before I’d even entertain the idea of extending him.

 

Stroman is not a 30 million per year pitcher by a long stretch so it's not really worth worrying about

[saskjayfan]

Stroman is not a 30 million per year pitcher by a long stretch so it's not really worth worrying about

 

he might not be worth 30, but he's worth more than Santana and he got 20 mil per year for 3 years.