Offseason Roster Thread 2017-18

[BTS]

Guys, this could be Ryan Goins’ last two hours with this team.

[cowtown]

Guys, this could be Ryan Goins’ last two hours with this team.

 

I hope so!

[vdubmvp]

Guys, this could be Ryan Goins’ last two hours with this team.

 

I'm too afraid to get my hopes up.

[BTS]

I'm too afraid to get my hopes up.

 

I’m not planning on drinking tonight, but if he’s non-tendered I’m having celebratory scotch.

[Ray]

Marlins apparently want to get their payroll below the reported $90 million to an even lower $75 million which means that absolutely everyone is fair game. They seem to be desperate. Derek Dietrich, Ozuna, or Dee Gordon would all be good targets.

 

How expensive will someone like Ozuna really be if we take on Brad Ziegler or Tazawa's contracts for salary relief?

[Abomination]

Marlins apparently want to get their payroll below the reported $90 million to an even lower $75 million which means that absolutely everyone is fair game. They seem to be desperate. Derek Dietrich, Ozuna, or Dee Gordon would all be good targets.

 

How expensive will someone like Ozuna really be if we take on Brad Ziegler or Tazawa's contracts for salary relief?

 

He would cost at least one of Vladdy or Bichette guaranteed, plus more, regardless of whether or not we're taking on extra salary.

[SpeedyGose]

I’m not planning on drinking tonight, but if he’s non-tendered I’m having celebratory scotch.

 

Do you have that scotch ready?

[BTS]

Do you have that scotch ready?

 

About to pour it.

[P2F]

Blue Jays ZiPS Projections were released today.

 

Batters

While some organizations have had success with a “stars-and-scrubs” approach to roster construction, history reveals that the star-and-scrubs tactic has been considerably less successful. Were Kevin Pillar (616 PA, 2.9 zWAR), Russell Martin (402, 2.4), and Justin Smoak (518, 2.2) to fall even a half-win short of their respective ZiPS forecasts in 2018, however, that’s precisely what would result in Toronto.

Third baseman Josh Donaldson (572, 5.6) is clearly the centerpiece of the Blue Jays’ field-playing contingent. His projected batting line — which, of course, features adjustments both for aging and regression to the mean — would nevertheless place him among the league’s top 20 batters. The fielding number (+6 runs at third base) produced by Dan Szymborski’s computer would render Donaldson the equivalent of a league-average shortstop.

As for what’s missing, the club would probably benefit most immediately from some assistance at a corner-outfield spot. Neither Teoscar Hernandez (553, 1.2) nor Steve Pearce (318, 0.8) profile as anything much better than a strong bench piece at the moment, nor do any superior options exist on the major-league roster.

Pitchers

While Blue Jays position players produced the second-worst collective WARamong their peers in 2017, the pitching staff fared much better, recording the 11th-best mark in the league. The principal members of the rotation all return in 2018. Marcus Stroman (190.2 IP, 4.3 zWAR), Aaron Sanchez (142.2, 2.8), J.A. Happ (142.0, 2.7), and Marco Estrada (162.2, 1.9) appear to form the foundation of a capable starting group. Joe Biagini (123.1, 1.2) is also expected to produce wins at a roughly average rate.

As for the bullpen, it represents the club’s one legitimate strength. A very cursory examination of last year’s ZiPS forecasts reveals zero cases in which a club’s top-five relievers were projected to record six wins collectively (as the Jays’ top-five relievers are here). Roberto Osuna (73.1 IP, 65 ERA-, 2.0 zWAR) is obviously the leader of the group, but Dominic Leone (68.2, 85, 1.2) and Aaron Loup (55.0, 83, 1.0) are both very well acquitted by ZiPS on a per-inning basis.

Bench/Prospects

Anthony Alford (384 PA, 1.3 zWAR) received just eight plate appearances in the majors last year and only slightly more than that at Triple-A. Nevertheless, he’s Toronto’s second-best outfielder, according to Szymborski’s computer. His value is largely confined to his defensive ability: while forecast for a batting line roughly 30% worse than average (73 wRC+), Alford is projected to record +10 fielding runs (or its equivalent in the minors) in center, in fewer than 400 plate appearances. He profiles roughly as Kevin Pillar’s equal, in other words, and Pillar has been one of the top two or three defensive outfielders in the majors over the last three seasons.

Bo Bichette (497, 1.0) and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (509, 0.8) will likely appear atop most Blue Jays prospect lists this year, and they receive very promising forecasts here relative to their ages — just not sufficient to transform the Toronto Blue Jays in 2018. Catcher Danny Jansen (416, 1.2), who ascended to Triple-A last year after starting the season in High-A, appears capable of helping in a bench capacity.

Whatever the pitching staff’s strengths, depth doesn’t seem to be one of them. Brett Anderson (97.1 IP, 107 ERA-, 1.1 zWAR) pitched well in a brief sting with Toronto but has departed via free agency. Mike Bolsinger (95.1, 109, 0.9) pitched less well and has also become a free agent.

Depth Chart

Below is a rough depth chart for the present incarnation of the Jays, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player. For caveats regarding WAR values see disclaimer at bottom of post. Click to enlarge image.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here at site and author’s own haphazard reasoning.

 

BatterCounti Stats

Keep reading here:

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2018-zips-projections-toronto-blue-jays/

[Spanky99]

 

Everything's turning up Milhouse today!

[Brownie19]

Wow!

[KingKat]

Man, ice pick to AA's back.

[Brownie19]

Who the f*** wants to live in Atlanta??

[P2F]

Zach Putnam was non-tendered by the White Sox and may be a possibility to sign to a MiLB deal. He's recovering from Tommy John surgery, but he should be healthy at around the ASB and has actually been sneaky good in his career.

[burlingtonbandit]

Wonder if the Jays gave him a big raise to stay in Toronto.

[Maahfaace]

Wonder if the Jays gave him a big raise to stay in Toronto.

 

Wifey loves T.O, and compared to Atlanta, it's not even close.

[tazsub3]

Wifey loves T.O, and compared to Atlanta, it's not even close.

 

The table is turning, players will start taking less money to live in canada.

[Bobthe4th]

[Bobthe4th]

[G-Snarls]

 

Just glad he's healthy

 

Sucks that Pillar, Teoscar Hernandez, Alford and Pearce all bat right

 

We could really use lefty OF

[G-Snarls]

Chisolm on expected plans for Jays during winter meetings:

 

http://m.bluejays.mlb.com/news/article/262873442/blue-jays-winter-meetings-strategy-preview/

[bones10]

What are we expecting from Sanchez next year, I actually kind of forgot he existed.

[glory]

I like Pearce, but I hope they are not planning to trot him out in left field again. He needs to be the primary DH, or 1B with Smoak at DH. If they plan on starting him everyday in left then they might as well trade him as he is going to have to hit like a damn beast to make up for his defence.

[Brownie19]

I like Pearce, but I hope they are not planning to trot him out in left field again. He needs to be the primary DH, or 1B with Smoak at DH. If they plan on starting him everyday in left then they might as well trade him as he is going to have to hit like a damn beast to make up for his defence.

 

I agree. Pearce should be used in the OF under emergency conditions only. I'd like to see them add a LH bat (RHP killer) to pair up with Alford, Pillar, Teoscer. I'm not sure if Alford is ready yet, but I could see a situation where we land a platoon LH outfielder and between Alford, Teoscar and the FA, they share LF + RF - riding the hot hand, playing matchups, etc.

[Bobthe4th]

I like Pearce, but I hope they are not planning to trot him out in left field again. He needs to be the primary DH, or 1B with Smoak at DH. If they plan on starting him everyday in left then they might as well trade him as he is going to have to hit like a damn beast to make up for his defence.

 

100% - I'd be looking to trade Pearce (or Morales, but realistically Pearce is the one that another team might want).

[Effit]

[burlingtonbandit]

That's really interesting. I wonder if Shapiro will just get someone from the high perf. dept to be the trainer.

[BTS]

Chisolm on expected plans for Jays during winter meetings:

 

http://m.bluejays.mlb.com/news/article/262873442/blue-jays-winter-meetings-strategy-preview/

 

I don’t think this team is going to be very good next year.

[G-Snarls]

Chisolm:

 

Toronto spent approximately $170 million on 2017 payroll and is expected to be working in a similar range next year. The Blue Jays currently have approximately $90 million in guaranteed salaries for next season, but that figure jumps to $140-145 million once arbitration and pre-arbitration players are factored in. That leaves upwards of $25-$30 million to spend on a starter, an outfielder and another piece for the bullpen.

[Abomination]

 

I hope he got a good raise. He's probably been the hardest working member of the organization over the past five years.