Offseason Roster Thread 2017-18

[Terminator]

Tyler Chatwood would look really nice in our rotation. He's one of the pitchers who's truly been f***ed in Coors when you look at his Home vs. Away splits. No QO and shouldn't be terribly expensive either. I'd be very comfortable giving him 4-5 years. Only 27 years old.

 

I've been tooting his horn for a while but I wouldn't go 5 years. Probably not 4 either. His splits are solid but he hasn't really proven much. I'd give him 3 though.

[Terminator]

What low-to-mid tier free agents do we want the team to be in on? Some names that I find interesting:

 

C - Avila, Hundley, Iannetta

INF - Walker, Cozart, Nunez

OF - Dyson, Jackson, Gomez, Jay

SP - Cobb, Garcia, Mikolas

 

Off the top of my head I'd add Chatwood, Kendrick and Sogard to that list.

[Ray]

I've been tooting his horn for a while but I wouldn't go 5 years. Probably not 4 either. His splits are solid but he hasn't really proven much. I'd give him 3 though.

 

I'm thinking he's probably gonna be a fairly hot commodity in the offseason considering the lack of qualifying offer and the potential upside with his groundball rate and splits. He fits very well on a lot of teams and it may take 4-5 years to get him. Ideally I'd give him the same deal that Happ got, but he's also younger than Happ so I'd be fine with giving him an extra year or two to nab him. $50-$60 million over 5 years is probably the max I'd go for him which would mean you're getting him for his age 28-32 seasons which are a pitchers prime years. At worst even if he's more like his Rockies tenure than his away splits, $10-$11 million per year for a guy who has a career 4.31 ERA isn't the worst thing in the world. That's about what you pay for to get a league average starter on the open market nowadays if not less. Ian Kennedy got $70 million over 5 years from KC a couple years back and I'd argue Chatwood is better and has higher upside than Kennedy.

 

Off the top of my head I'd add Chatwood, Kendrick and Sogard to that list.

 

 

Unfortunately Sogard signed an extension with the Brewers not too long ago, but he would've been a real nice fit.

[glory]

What low-to-mid tier free agents do we want the team to be in on? Some names that I find interesting:

 

C - Avila, Hundley, Iannetta

INF - Walker, Cozart, Nunez

OF - Dyson, Jackson, Gomez, Jay

SP - Cobb, Garcia, Mikolas

 

Dyson, Nunez, and Mikolas from that list. I'd also be interested in Chatwood if the price is reasonable, but the lack of QO might make him more attractive so I'm figuring he will be priced out of the Jays range. Cobb is qualified so he won't be on the radar.

 

Shapiro hates free agency and he has said as much to the media. I think he'll go with short term deals, and the names I mentioned above will probably require two years tops, which is a safe number. The only FA i see this regime going bonkers for it Otani, but that doesn't appear too likely to happen.

[Brownie19]

Off the top of my head I'd add Chatwood, Kendrick and Sogard to that list.

 

Didn't Sogard re-sign?

[Brownie19]

Tyler Chatwood would look really nice in our rotation. He's one of the pitchers who's truly been f***ed in Coors when you look at his Home vs. Away splits. No QO and shouldn't be terribly expensive either. I'd be very comfortable giving him 4-5 years. Only 27 years old.

 

Am I looking at the wrong career 'away' splits?

 

K/9 - 6.11

BB/9 - 4.02

FIP - 4.19

xFIP - 4.40

 

I don't get it personally. I never get excited about guys who've walked more than 4 per 9 innings for their career - especially with such a low K/9....4.69 BB/9 last year - barf.

[Terminator]

Didn't Sogard re-sign?

 

Yep

[Ray]

Am I looking at the wrong career 'away' splits?

 

K/9 - 6.11

BB/9 - 4.02

FIP - 4.19

xFIP - 4.40

 

I don't get it personally. I never get excited about guys who've walked more than 4 per 9 innings for their career - especially with such a low K/9....4.69 BB/9 last year - barf.

 

A 4.19 FIP and 4.37 xFIP still implies that he'll give you a quality start on average. Not to mention FIP and xFIP are never terribly kind to pitch to contact and groundball guys. Marcus Stroman pitched to a near 4 FIP himself this season. Stroman also has a career BB/9 of nearly 3 and career K/9 of 7.3. Not that much better than Chatwood. Both of them have very similar batted ball profiles when it comes to soft%, med%, and hard%. Plus the Rockies have always had garbage framers and callers behind the plate. Having Russ behind the plate for Chatwood calling the game and framing his pitches may give him a little bit of a boost.

 

Not every pitcher in the rotation has to be an ace. He'll probably be the 4th or 5th guy in the rotation and he's not gonna be getting ace money while probably giving you 2.0 WAR on average with 4.0 WAR upside. Not sure what else you expect from a bottom of the rotation guy.

[Abomination]

What low-to-mid tier free agents do we want the team to be in on? Some names that I find interesting:

 

C - Avila, Hundley, Iannetta

INF - Walker, Cozart, Nunez

OF - Dyson, Jackson, Gomez, Jay

SP - Cobb, Garcia, Mikolas

 

C - Carlos Ruiz, Hundley

INF - Stephen Drew

OF - Ethier, Jay

SP - Anderson, Chacin, Wei-Yin Chen, Garcia, Hellickson, Hutch (maybe), Liriano, Lynn, Tyson Ross

[Brownie19]

A 4.19 FIP and 4.37 xFIP still implies that he'll give you a quality start on average. Not to mention FIP and xFIP are never terribly kind to pitch to contact and groundball guys. Marcus Stroman pitched to a near 4 FIP himself this season. Stroman also has a career BB/9 of nearly 3 and career K/9 of 7.3. Not that much better than Chatwood. Both of them have very similar batted ball profiles when it comes to soft%, med%, and hard%. Plus the Rockies have always had garbage framers and callers behind the plate. Having Russ behind the plate for Chatwood calling the game and framing his pitches may give him a little bit of a boost.

 

Not every pitcher in the rotation has to be an ace. He'll probably be the 4th or 5th guy in the rotation and he's not gonna be getting ace money while probably giving you 2.0 WAR on average with 4.0 WAR upside. Not sure what else you expect from a bottom of the rotation guy.

 

Stro's FIP was 3.90 (3.59 xFIP) last year, but is 3.57 for his career. His career BB/9 is 2.40, which isn't 'nearly' 3....you're really stretching it man. But I get it, you like him and there are Coors factors that are hard to predict. The guy throws hard (94 MPH avg fastball last year) and gets lots of ground balls. I love that, but he needs to throw A LOT more strikes for me...he's certainly an option, but I couldn't imagine giving him a 4 or 5 year deal. You don't lock up 5th starters that long.

[glory]

I don't think this front office is giving any free agent a contract greater than three years except international talent (Gurriel types). This free agent market is ass, so we might actually see some trades to patch holes this winter.

[TheHurl]

I don't think this front office is giving any free agent a contract greater than three years except international talent (Gurriel types). This free agent market is ass, so we might actually see some trades to patch holes this winter.

 

I'm positive we'll see trades. We have too many might not be ready for the bigs bats on the 40.

[THANOS]

I'm positive we'll see trades. We have too many might not be ready for the bigs bats on the 40.

 

Wish we were in on Otani and had decent negotiating power to convince him. He makes a lot of sense for us, yet, apparently we're not in on him.

[Spanky99]

Wish we were in on Otani and had decent negotiating power to convince him. He makes a lot of sense for us, yet, apparently we're not in on him.

 

Why wouldn't we be in on him? Every team is going to make its pitch, it just comes down to whom he chooses, Shatkins are just being realistic when they said other teams are a better fit, and to temper expectations.

[Slade]

Wish we were in on Otani and had decent negotiating power to convince him. He makes a lot of sense for us, yet, apparently we're not in on him.

 

What are you talking about? For everything I've read we are definitely going to be in on but everyone else is too.

[Bobthe4th]

I wonder if there is any interest in bringing Liriano back on a cheap deal. Lefty reliever who can spot start and be a longman.

[Jimcanuck]

I suggest fillers on 1 year deals only.

 

Save capital for the next FA season.

 

Punt 2018 season for future success.

[Spanky99]

I suggest fillers on 1 year deals only.

 

Save capital for the next FA season.

 

Punt 2018 season for future success.

 

Yeah, that ain't happening.

[Maine Jays]

What low-to-mid tier free agents do we want the team to be in on? Some names that I find interesting:

 

C - Avila, Hundley, Iannetta

INF - Walker, Cozart, Nunez

OF - Dyson, Jackson, Gomez, Jay

SP - Cobb, Garcia, Mikolas

 

1) Nunez (LF) and to team with Gurriel as multi-position starters when Tulo and Travis spend half the season on the DL

2) Jay to spell Teo and cover LF when Nunez needs to play 2B/SS

3) Iannetta

4) Chatwood as our #5, Mikolas as a spot starter/long reliever/depth

[Angrioter]

1) Nunez (LF) and to team with Gurriel as multi-position starters when Tulo and Travis spend half the season on the DL

2) Jay to spell Teo and cover LF when Nunez needs to play 2B/SS

3) Iannetta

4) Chatwood as our #5, Mikolas as a spot starter/long reliever/depth

 

Mikolas??

[Maine Jays]

The SP from Japan (or Korea, not 100% on which one) who played for Texas and SD before heading overseas. He's looking to return. MLB Trade Rumors had him pegged at 2 years, 5M total.

[Ray]

Stro's FIP was 3.90 (3.59 xFIP) last year, but is 3.57 for his career. His career BB/9 is 2.40, which isn't 'nearly' 3....you're really stretching it man. But I get it, you like him and there are Coors factors that are hard to predict. The guy throws hard (94 MPH avg fastball last year) and gets lots of ground balls. I love that, but he needs to throw A LOT more strikes for me...he's certainly an option, but I couldn't imagine giving him a 4 or 5 year deal. You don't lock up 5th starters that long.

 

Yeah, but Stros BB/9 this year was almost 3 and he had a better season this year than last when he posted a lower BB/9. Always a gamble with these groundball types because sometimes they get out of it with DP's and sometimes they don't. I agree Chatwoods BB/9 isn't that great. Walking 4 per game is a problem, but still for a bottom of the rotation guy, he'd be fine.

 

4 or 5 years is too long, but I think there's gonna be a big demand for him this offseason and was just saying that I'd be comfortable going that long given his age and also how cheap he'll be in terms of AAV. If we can give him the same deal Happ got, that would be fantastic, but I have a gut feeling he'll get more. 4/40 would realistically be the most I'd go.

[Brownie19]

Yeah, but Stros BB/9 this year was almost 3 and he had a better season this year than last when he posted a lower BB/9. Always a gamble with these groundball types because sometimes they get out of it with DP's and sometimes they don't. I agree Chatwoods BB/9 isn't that great. Walking 4 per game is a problem, but still for a bottom of the rotation guy, he'd be fine.

 

4 or 5 years is too long, but I think there's gonna be a big demand for him this offseason and was just saying that I'd be comfortable going that long given his age and also how cheap he'll be in terms of AAV. If we can give him the same deal Happ got, that would be fantastic, but I have a gut feeling he'll get more. 4/40 would realistically be the most I'd go.

 

Except Stroman wasn't better in 2017 than he was in 2016, unless you measure by wins and ERA - which I don't.

[Jimcanuck]

I see the FO extending Stroman and finding the FA pool either barren or overpriced, signing a bunch of dross to short term deals. And with no reasonable prospect to be a contender in 2018, moving JD prior to the season start.

 

Of course you will never hear Shatkins say this until it happens.

 

Team will not be good again until the farm starts producing fruit.

 

If they sign some middling veterans to multi year deals, the days of mediocrity have returned.

[glory]

I see the FO extending Stroman and finding the FA pool either barren or overpriced, signing a bunch of dross to short term deals. And with no reasonable prospect to be a contender in 2018, moving JD prior to the season start.

 

Of course you will never hear Shatkins say this until it happens.

 

Team will not be good again until the farm starts producing fruit.

 

If they sign some middling veterans to multi year deals, the days of mediocrity have returned.

 

Looking at the free agent list, it does look like the type of season to go with 1-2 year stop gaps rather than sign someone to a long-term deal (three years). Most likely we will see a trade or two as well. Maybe trade for a back up infielder and sign a vet outfielder to a short term deal (Granderson, Dyson, someone like that). You could probably get some decent production out of Granderson/Dyson vs RHP platooning with Pearce, and then Pearce splitting time with Morales at DH. Unless they can trade for a young outfielder, which would be preferable, but unless it's similar to the Teoscar deal where they are giving up little/nothing of value, it probably won't happen.

 

I don't see them trading JD until mid season if they are out of it, though.

[Jimcanuck]

Looking at the free agent list, it does look like the type of season to go with 1-2 year stop gaps rather than sign someone to a long-term deal (three years). Most likely we will see a trade or two as well. Maybe trade for a back up infielder and sign a vet outfielder to a short term deal (Granderson, Dyson, someone like that). You could probably get some decent production out of Granderson/Dyson vs RHP platooning with Pearce, and then Pearce splitting time with Morales at DH. Unless they can trade for a young outfielder, which would be preferable, but unless it's similar to the Teoscar deal where they are giving up little/nothing of value, it probably won't happen.

 

I don't see them trading JD until mid season if they are out of it, though.

 

Yes but those kind of moves nowhere enough to compete with the 'stros and Dodgers and several other teams, unless everything goes Jays way, no major losses to injury, a couple of guys have career years, etc. In other words, realistically there is not much chance.

[glory]

Yes but those kind of moves nowhere enough to compete with the 'stros and Dodgers and several other teams, unless everything goes Jays way, no major losses to injury, a couple of guys have career years, etc. In other words, realistically there is not much chance.

 

If they keep JD, then chances are they are intentionally aiming for the 2nd wild card, so the bar isn't going to be high regardless.

 

My guess is 2018 will be a cross between rebuilding like the front office wants to do and keeping asses in seats like ownership wants.

[Spanky99]

Some decent content from Atkins...

 

 

How will Blue Jays bridge gap between current core and emerging talent?

 

Shi Davidi

@shidavidi

November 10, 2017, 1:03 PM

 

TORONTO – Something Toronto Blue Jays fans should closely watch for as the off-season develops is how general manager Ross Atkins and company work to bridge the gap between the current core and the coming wave of kids led by Vladimir Guerrero Jr., and Bo Bichette.

 

Barring a long-term extension for Josh Donaldson, the window of opportunity opened in 2013 is due to shut once the superstar slugger becomes eligible for free agency after the 2018 season. The Blue Jays are intent on trying to leverage his final year, but the manner in which they go about addressing their offensive problems and pitching needs may also determine how difficult the looming transition will be.

 

One strategic question to wrestle with is whether it makes more sense to add medium- or long-term pieces this winter so there’s insulation on the roster once the prospects start breaking through, or short-term pieces to create more of a clean slate.

 

According to Atkins, the Blue Jays aren’t "thinking of it as an either/or."

 

"We’re considering both," Atkins says in an interview ahead of the general managers meetings in Orlando. "It depends on whether or not you’re talking trade, you’re talking about free agency – ideally some hybrid of those. Last year the difference wasn’t necessarily where we are as an organization, it was more the very defined needs with the players that were exiting, Edwin (Encarnacion) and Jose (Bautista). Our needs are not significantly less defined, but less defined than a year ago. We are in a position to think about several different strategies to ultimately how do we win, and how do we sustain a winning team for a long period of time? That could come in either form, most likely, in the form of both."

 

Pulling that off won’t be easy, especially with the Blue Jays determined to upgrade themselves without any of the prime prospects other teams will be seeking in trade. Justin Smoak’s emergence last year created some roster surplus with Kendrys Morales and Steve Pearce, they have some depth in the bullpen and they likely won’t have enough 40-man roster room to shoehorn in all the prospects that must be added by Nov. 20 or be left exposed in December’s Rule 5 draft. That list includes Conner Greene, Thomas Pannone, Max Pentecost, Rowdy Tellez, Danny Jansen and Reese McGuire.

 

Those are some assets to work with on the trade front and while Atkins says, "there are no plans to trade from our core," a point he made twice for emphasis, the Blue Jays could, "if we have to, exhaust those alternatives on what it could mean to trade from our core if we can create a better, sustainable model that doesn’t have big valleys, and have a steady climb."

 

That would certainly open up some more avenues for improvement, and there should be all kinds of trade opportunity beyond the looming teardown of the Miami Marlins and Giancarlo Stanton selloff.

 

Then there’s free agency and the one player who could potentially alter the club’s direction – Shohei Otani. The two-way Japanese star’s recent decision to hire CAA’s Nez Balelo as his agent brought a bit more clarity to his plans, as did the Nippon-Ham Fighters announcement that Otani will be allowed to leave through the posting system. Still, a new transfer agreement between MLB and Nippon Professional Baseball needs to be formalized, so the process is somewhat stuck in neutral.

 

"We’ll continue to work to understand that and stay at the forefront of making sure that we can be players in that market," was all Atkins would say on the matter.

 

The Blue Jays scouted Otani heavily over the summer, sending multiple executives and scouts over to Japan for first-hand looks. Given that he’s only 23, he’ll count against the hard cap of $4.75 million-$5.75 million on teams’ bonus spending pools for international free agents, which means money isn’t likely to be the determining factor.

 

The Blue Jays are largely tapped out of their $4.75 million allocation, but they did acquire some pool room from the St. Louis Cardinals in a trade for minor-leaguer Lane Thomas back in July, and are believed to have slightly more than $1 million to work with right now.

 

Is it enough? Otani’s wants, desires and preferences are cloaked in intrigue – a true wild card.

 

The rest of the free agent market offers far more clarity and the Blue Jays will take more than a week’s worth of work to Orlando, when things should come further into focus.

 

"We’ve made contact with every potential free agent that could fit for us to their representation, to express our interest and start to talk about if that’s mutual or not," said Atkins. "We have not to date had discussions beyond the fit being a good one or not, but they are very telling to understand where that seems that there’s going to be more of a connection or not. I can’t get into specific players, but over the past week … on a scale of realisitic to unrealistic, we have a better feel for where certain targets fit on that scale.

 

"Similarly, on the trade front, which teams have good fits for us. Those discussions have been going on for much more than a week. Now you’re starting to get a little more clarity as we head into the GMs’ meetings on which teams we should be spending more time with because we line up well, because there’s mutual interest in making a deal."

 

The results will offer a glimpse into what lies ahead for the 2018 Blue Jays, as well as how things will shape up for an uncertain 2019 and beyond.

[Ray]

Except Stroman wasn't better in 2017 than he was in 2016, unless you measure by wins and ERA - which I don't.

 

Fair point. Stromans peripherals were almost exactly the same but no denying the results were different. Stroman had a 78.1% LOB this season compared to 68.6% LOB in 2016. Always a gamble with pitch to contact guys.

 

I concede that Chatwood walks a lot of batters, but I still think there's good upside there. Maybe my initial 4-5 years was too high on him, but I'd give him the Happ deal for sure.

[Ray]

According to RosterResource, our start of 2018 payroll is gonna be about $149,103,571. This is assuming the arbitration estimates are correct and before any additions to the roster via trade and/or free agency.

 

Link: https://www.rosterresource.com/mlb-toronto-blue-jays-info/

 

That Tulo contract is looking like an anchor.