The Josh wants Blue Jays

[TwistedLogic]

 

[gruber92]

Did you honestly think that nobody on this board had not already discovered this?

 

Check the Cardinals want Josh thread..

[THANOS]

Did you honestly think that nobody on this board had not already discovered this?

 

Check the Cardinals want Josh thread..

 

I'm pretty sure he knows, but probably feels it deserves its own thread. I would agree.

[BTS]

This seems like the kind of thing we hear every time a major player is nearing free agency. He’ll stay, for $200M.

[Dr. Dinger]

I have a lot of faith in Shatkins to assess his future value, so if there is a contract to be done, I'm sure it will have a good deal of surplus value. Nice to know Josh is open to it, although why wouldn't he be? He won an MVP here, made it to the ALCS twice, played in front of packed stadiums, and has been completely idolized. I don't see Vladdy sticking at 3B long term, so IMO that should have no bearing on the negotiation.

 

I'd be willing to offer around 5 years, $150M. I don't know if that would definitely get a deal done, but it's a reasonable starting point.

 

Napkin math:

 

[TABLE=width: 712]

[TR]

[TD]Year[/TD]

[TD]Age[/TD]

[TD]Pr. WAR[/TD]

[TD]$/WAR[/TD]

[TD]Pr. Value[/TD]

[TD]Contract Offer[/TD]

[TD]Surplus Value[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD]2018[/TD]

[TD]32[/TD]

[TD]6[/TD]

[TD]$10,000,000[/TD]

[TD]$60,000,000[/TD]

[TD]$30,000,000[/TD]

[TD]$30,000,000[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD]2019[/TD]

[TD]33[/TD]

[TD]5[/TD]

[TD]$10,500,000[/TD]

[TD]$52,500,000[/TD]

[TD]$30,000,000[/TD]

[TD]$22,500,000[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD]2020[/TD]

[TD]34[/TD]

[TD]4[/TD]

[TD]$11,000,000[/TD]

[TD]$44,000,000[/TD]

[TD]$30,000,000[/TD]

[TD]$14,000,000[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD]2021[/TD]

[TD]35[/TD]

[TD]3[/TD]

[TD]$11,500,000[/TD]

[TD]$34,500,000[/TD]

[TD]$30,000,000[/TD]

[TD]$4,500,000[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD]2022[/TD]

[TD]36[/TD]

[TD]2[/TD]

[TD]$12,000,000[/TD]

[TD]$24,000,000[/TD]

[TD]$30,000,000[/TD]

[TD]($6,000,000)[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD]20[/TD]

[TD]Totals[/TD]

[TD]$215,000,000[/TD]

[TD]$150,000,000[/TD]

[TD]$65,000,000[/TD]

[/TR]

[/TABLE]

[Dr. Dinger]

If you add in a 6th year @ $30M, you're chipping away another $10-20M of surplus value, and so on, so that's where it starts to get unpalatable. Of course, he could just come back next year with an 8 WAR season and turn the whole thing into a gold strike.

[G-Snarls]

If you add in a 6th year @ $30M, you're chipping away another $10-20M of surplus value, and so on, so that's where it starts to get unpalatable. Of course, he could just come back next year with an 8 WAR season and turn the whole thing into a gold strike.

 

I'm with you

 

I think he likely wants and can get 5 years guaranteed AFTER 2017. Make 2023 a club option with a non-insane buyout and I'm probably OK with that too

[Dr. Dinger]

I'm with you

 

I think he likely wants and can get 5 years guaranteed AFTER 2017. Make 2023 a club option with a non-insane buyout and I'm probably OK with that too

 

A club option does nothing to benefit Donaldson, so that's not really a sweetener (assuming 5/$150 isn't enough). We'd probably have to make the 6th year a vesting option, which is reasonable. Something like a 6th year at $30M if he accumulates 1,000 total PA in '21/'22.

[Terminator]

A club option does nothing to benefit Donaldson, so that's not really a sweetener (assuming 5/$150 isn't enough). We'd probably have to make the 6th year a vesting option, which is reasonable. Something like a 6th year at $30M if he accumulates 1,000 total PA in '21/'22.

 

The club option could have a buyout attached to it if its declined but a vesting option would work too.

[Krylian]

But do the Blue Jays wants Josh?

[FrozenRopes]

The Jays should thank Josh for increasing his trade value by making this statement. Now move him for the best pieces you can get and try to get whomever to take Tulos contract with it.

[Dr. Dinger]

The Jays should thank Josh for increasing his trade value by making this statement. Now move him for the best pieces you can get and try to get whomever to take Tulos contract with it.

 

I don't agree with this, it would significantly detract from the quality of prospects we would otherwise get.

[Spanky99]

Did you honestly think that nobody on this board had not already discovered this?

 

Check the Cardinals want Josh thread..

 

Now read TL's thread title... Whoosh!

[Krylian]

I don't agree with this, it would significantly detract from the quality of prospects we would otherwise get.

 

Agreed. You're just gonna have to swallow Tulo or figure something out in another (less meaningful) deal.

[fatcowxlive]

I honestly maintained that the FO was always willing to keep Josh and will offer a very fair deal compared to the market prices, like the offers to Edwin and Jose

 

I also thought that JD wants, to at the very least, test FA in what is poised to be one of the biggest FA classes ever and that he might even wanna leave Toronto for another team.

 

So elated that he himself wants to stay here long term! Hopefully we'll lock him up!!! Team needs a leader and good, competitive character now that Jose is probably gone

[Dr. Dinger]

I also thought that JD wants, to at the very least, test FA in what is poised to be one of the biggest FA classes ever and that he might even wanna leave Toronto for another team.

 

The FA market may work against him slightly, since most teams will probably be eyeing Harper and Machado first and foremost. What could end up happening is that teams prioritize Machado's youth over Donaldson, and he ends up missing out on the biggest 3B contract and has to take a bit of a consolation prize. If he can get something comparable now, and mitigate his risk of getting hurt and losing lots of money, it's worth his while.

[G-Snarls]

But do the Blue Jays wants Josh?

 

Yes of. Course

 

And Shapiro and Atkins have made that pretty clear

[G-Snarls]

The FA market may work against him slightly, since most teams will probably be eyeing Harper and Machado first and foremost. What could end up happening is that teams prioritize Machado's youth over Donaldson, and he ends up missing out on the biggest 3B contract and has to take a bit of a consolation prize. If he can get something comparable now, and mitigate his risk of getting hurt and losing lots of money, it's worth his while.

 

I'm actually hoping the Orioles do something stupid and give Machado a long expensive contract that they later regret

[burlingtonbandit]

Yes of. Course

 

And Shapiro and Atkins have made that pretty clear

 

Well not really. They would have signed him long term already if that was the case. They obviously like him as a player but it always depends on the cost.

[Krylian]

Yes of. Course

 

And Shapiro and Atkins have made that pretty clear

 

Well f***. Of course. But do they want him at the price that he wants

[Spanky99]

I'm actually hoping the Orioles do something stupid and give Machado a long expensive contract that they later regret

 

How, he's only 25?

[Ray]

This front office will pay for the right person, aging or not. They offered Edwin $80 million and he’s not exactly a spring chicken. Would’ve been paying him $20 million a year for his age 34-37 seasons.

 

You’re gonna be paying Donaldson $25 million next season in arbitration anyways so we can clearly afford the AAV. It’s more the term that’s the bigger question. Where will this front office draw the line? 5 guaranteed years with a vesting option for a 6th seems very reasonable.

[Dr. Dinger]

It's crazy to think that Josh has now averaged 7+ WAR over a 5 year span. What a remarkable peak he's had, it's significantly better than Miggy's best 5 year stretch.

[burlingtonbandit]

If you can get away with the contract ending after his age 36 season then that would be a huge win. That's the year where it seems there is a massive drop off in performance.

[Dick_Pole]

I share the sentiment of most people in this thread. A packed free agent year and a trend of not giving guys on the wrong side of 30 much more than 5 years. He re-signs in Toronto he takes the risk of injury/quick decline off the table and gets paid one year earlier.

 

I think everyone wins in this scenario. One could argue that the Jays should be throwing away 2018 when they could get prospects for him. But with how weak the AL will look next year beyond the top 4 teams, going for it and hoping for some luck to at least hit the ALCS again isn't the worst idea ever.

[Dick_Pole]

Did you honestly think that nobody on this board had not already discovered this?

 

Check the Cardinals want Josh thread..

 

I never would have guessed that based on the title of the thread that he has read the other one....

[Spanky99]

Now read TL's thread title... Whoosh!

 

I never would have guessed that based on the title of the thread that he has read the other one....

 

Beat ya to it...