Thursday game 1 (4/27) Jays @ St Louis 1:45 start time

[KevinGregg]

Interesting point about walking the bases loaded after the triple:

 

There was a 0.843 probability at least one run scored with the runner at third and 0 out

This increased to 0.861 after the bases were loaded - AND what this doesn't account for is that we were choosing to face a much better group of hitters by advancing the order 2 places

 

2010-2015 run expectancy data from http://www.tangotiger.net/re24.html

 

Bad move by Gibby to walk the bases loaded

[Laika]

Interesting point about walking the bases loaded after the triple:

 

There was a 0.843 probability at least one run scored with the runner at third and 0 out

This increased to 0.861 after the bases were loaded - AND what this doesn't account for is that we were choosing to face a much better group of hitters by advancing the order 2 places

 

2010-2015 run expectancy data from http://www.tangotiger.net/re24.html

 

Bad move by Gibby to walk the bases loaded

 

That RE matrix is based on the typical bases loaded, no out situation. The vast majority of these occur in very different situations, where the team will just play straight up double play depth defense and is willing to trade a run for outs.

 

If you consider the specific defense the Jays went with, it might not have been a bad move. I dunno.

 

Still might have been simply because your pitcher isn't allowed to walk someone. Making the walk a win condition removed an important part of the pitcher-batter game theory stuff that goes on...

[Spanky99]

Interesting point about walking the bases loaded after the triple:

 

There was a 0.843 probability at least one run scored with the runner at third and 0 out

This increased to 0.861 after the bases were loaded - AND what this doesn't account for is that we were choosing to face a much better group of hitters by advancing the order 2 places

 

2010-2015 run expectancy data from http://www.tangotiger.net/re24.html

 

Bad move by Gibby to walk the bases loaded

 

Meh, the situation was in dire straits. I do agree, going after tougher lumber was dumn, yet what can you do, it almost worked out...

 

FU NJH!!

[o2cui2i]

missing 2 of the starting rotation and 2 of the top 5 hitters in the order is killing the jays. they are playing better than they were 2 weeks ago, but s*** floats,Salty and Pearce are stinking up the place.

 

Barnes and Goins have been fine as replacements but it will be great when the stars get back and those 2 are on the bench.

 

Team needs to make some moves. Salty simply has to go now! this "get him more AB" ******** is insane. every AB he gets is 1 too many. His pitch framing is costing games and this team doesn't need help losing.

[Effit]

JP Howell noping the f*** out after giving up that meatball.

 

http://i.imgur.com/wPMJGIP.gif

 

lmao

[Spanky99]

missing 2 of the starting rotation and 2 of the top 5 hitters in the order is killing the jays. they are playing better than they were 2 weeks ago, but s*** floats,Salty and Pearce are stinking up the place.

 

Barnes and Goins have been fine as replacements but it will be great when the stars get back and those 2 are on the bench.

 

Team needs to make some moves. Salty simply has to go now! this "get him more AB" ******** is insane. every AB he gets is 1 too many. His pitch framing is costing games and this team doesn't need help losing.

 

So, you like 12 year old girls? Is that what you're saying? I'm confused...

[Terminator]

So, you like 12 year old girls? Is that what you're saying? I'm confused...

 

Lol Spanky saw the lineup tonight and decided he didn't want to watch the game anyway.

[Jonn]

So, you like 12 year old girls? Is that what you're saying? I'm confused...

 

Spanky asking for a ban. Might be looking at 2 weeks this time.

[Spanky99]

Lol Spanky saw the lineup tonight and decided he didn't want to watch the game anyway.

 

Meh, no different than what he said to me. The audacity to ban for a week, cracks me up, I asked him for the help in that thread, lol.

[Spanky99]

Spanky asking for a ban. Might be looking at 2 weeks this time.

 

No, I'm not, actually. Anyhow, it was to prove a point, in a nonsensical environment.

 

Simply because that other troglodyte, clearly insinuated I was a Pedo. I'm done on the matter now.

[Bobthe4th]

Tell them to shut the f*** up. They're getting swept.

 

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