Toronto Blue Jays Rebuilding Thread

[Omar]

what this team sorely needs is me in my mid-20s.

 

p.s. how am i not a hall of famer? i know not first ballot, but if kirby puckett is there...

 

You'll always have the catch to remember the glory years.

 

[wk680]

Would love to add Dyson. Definitely improves our outfield defence and brings a much needed element of speed. His presence might also finally let us punt Zeke to the moon. I really hope they trade him at the Deadline. They have to know he's s*** but might actually hold some value right now with control.

 

What about Lorenzo Cain who is a year and a half younger and with more pop in his bat. Although not as fast as Dyson, he is a base stealer. I realize this is a bigger financial commitment, but the Jays can afford it.

[Brownie19]

What about Lorenzo Cain who is a year and a half younger and with more pop in his bat. Although not as fast as Dyson, he is a base stealer. I realize this is a bigger financial commitment, but the Jays can afford it.

 

I suspect he'll get a 4-5 year deal and will be overpaid. He's been a 99 wRC+ hitter now for 2 years and will be 32 next year. Bad player management is never good - no matter how much money the owner has.

[Brownie19]

Might want to hit the Enter button every now and then.

 

I'd consider the delete button too if I were him.

[Brownie19]

Jarrod Dyson is a free agent. Can play all three OF positions extremely well and is probably a 2-3 war everyday player. Teams don't usually pay big money for defence and he's in his 30's. Might be a reasonable two year contract type of player.

 

I realize WAR is WAR, but it would be difficult filling 2 of the OF spots with 85 wRC+ hitters.

[wk680]

I suspect he'll get a 4-5 year deal and will be overpaid. He's been a 99 wRC+ hitter now for 2 years and will be 32 next year. Bad player management is never good - no matter how much money the owner has.

 

Yeah I would not go more than 3 years $60M for Cain, but someone else is likely to be foolish enough to pay more (although we though the same about Encarnacion). If you could get him for 2 yr / $40M with a 3rd year option with $2M buyout, that may be reasonable.

[metafour]

remember when the Red Sox went 69-93 in 2012 and then won the World Series the next year?

 

baseball is more random than people think

 

That 2012 Red Sox team was sitting at .500 at the All-Star break and didn't turn into your "69-93" team until literally August/September when injuries decimated them. In fact, going into August they sat at 53-51, which means that for 4 of the 6 months of that season they were actually a fairly average team. How does it relate with our Blue Jays team this season? Well, if you have been paying any attention, you'd understand that this team has spent a grand total of 0 days at .500 or better this season, and that apart from one stretch wherein we beat up on an equally injured Seattle team and Cincinnati, we have been a BAD team for virtually the entire season. So to begin, we need to clarify that you are actually comparing what was an average-ish 2012 Red Sox team who just so happened to have a horrible end to their season to a bad 2017 Blue Jays team that has been bad for the majority of games played to date. As you can hopefully imagine, it is a lot easier to take an average team and improve them enough in one offseason to get a good team the following season than it is to do the same with what is a bad team the year prior. So in reality, the starting points aren't even remotely comparable.

 

You then need to analyze their free agent signings from that offseason and understand that expecting that type of reproduction or luck is beyond silly. Yes, baseball is random, but if you operate your franchise under the premise that you will replicate that 2013 Red Sox free agent class you are going to have a bad time. They got 5.9 WAR from Shane Victorino who hasn't done a thing since that 2013 season. They signed Koji Uehara for $4.5 mill and he proceeded to produce a 3 WAR season in relief, at the time one of the most dominant single season relief performances in history. They signed Napoli for $5 mill and he produced a 3.9 WAR season. They signed Stephen Drew for $9.5 mill and he produced a 3.4 WAR season. Throw in Saltalamacchia having a fluke 3.5 WAR season himself and it is easy to see how they fluked their way from average to very good in one offseason. Sounds simple, right? You just need all your pedestrian free agent signings to put up elite seasons at the same time. Not just good, but elite. This was of course a complete fluke as most of those same players went on to fall back to reality in 2014 which led to a 71-91 season.

[Ray]

I don't think there is that much payroll room. Guaranteed deals next year are Martin, Smoak, Tulo, Pearce, Morales, Happ, and Guirrel. For those seven players it is a little over $75mm. Donaldson's arb case alone will take that figure close to $100m, and that's not factoring Stroman, Sanchez, Osuna, Pillar, and Travis in arbitration. Available dough is probably closer to $40-50mm than $65mm.

 

I'm estimating Donaldson gets close to ~$20 million next season, but that may be low. He is making ~$17 million this season. A $3-$4 million raise in arb4 sounds about right.

 

Also, maybe I'm underestimating first year arb. How much are guys like Stroman, Sanchez, Osuna, Pillar, and Travis expected to make in their first years combined?

 

No way unless we move Morales so he can DH....he's a hack in the field.

 

I'm not advocating for it. I just think he's a possible front office target. There was speculation we wanted him in the off-season. I could see us revisiting him and Jay Bruce (which almost seems destined at this point)

[Laika]

That 2012 Red Sox team was sitting at .500 at the All-Star break and didn't turn into your "69-93" team until literally August/September when injuries decimated them. In fact, going into August they sat at 53-51, which means that for 4 of the 6 months of that season they were actually a fairly average team. How does it relate with our Blue Jays team this season? Well, if you have been paying any attention, you'd understand that this team has spent a grand total of 0 days at .500 or better this season, and that apart from one stretch wherein we beat up on an equally injured Seattle team and Cincinnati, we have been a BAD team for virtually the entire season. So to begin, we need to clarify that you are actually comparing what was an average-ish 2012 Red Sox team who just so happened to have a horrible end to their season to a bad 2017 Blue Jays team that has been bad for the majority of games played to date. As you can hopefully imagine, it is a lot easier to take an average team and improve them enough in one offseason to get a good team the following season than it is to do the same with what is a bad team the year prior. So in reality, the starting points aren't even remotely comparable.

 

You then need to analyze their free agent signings from that offseason and understand that expecting that type of reproduction or luck is beyond silly. Yes, baseball is random, but if you operate your franchise under the premise that you will replicate that 2013 Red Sox free agent class you are going to have a bad time. They got 5.9 WAR from Shane Victorino who hasn't done a thing since that 2013 season. They signed Koji Uehara for $4.5 mill and he proceeded to produce a 3 WAR season in relief, at the time one of the most dominant single season relief performances in history. They signed Napoli for $5 mill and he produced a 3.9 WAR season. They signed Stephen Drew for $9.5 mill and he produced a 3.4 WAR season. Throw in Saltalamacchia having a fluke 3.5 WAR season himself and it is easy to see how they fluked their way from average to very good in one offseason. Sounds simple, right? You just need all your pedestrian free agent signings to put up elite seasons at the same time. Not just good, but elite. This was of course a complete fluke as most of those same players went on to fall back to reality in 2014 which led to a 71-91 season.

 

Good effort

[xposbrad]

Good effort

 

But he's right

[Olerud363]

That 2012 Red Sox team was sitting at .500 at the All-Star break and didn't turn into your "69-93" team until literally August/September when injuries decimated them. In fact, going into August they sat at 53-51, which means that for 4 of the 6 months of that season they were actually a fairly average team. How does it relate with our Blue Jays team this season? Well, if you have been paying any attention, you'd understand that this team has spent a grand total of 0 days at .500 or better this season, and that apart from one stretch wherein we beat up on an equally injured Seattle team and Cincinnati, we have been a BAD team for virtually the entire season. So to begin, we need to clarify that you are actually comparing what was an average-ish 2012 Red Sox team who just so happened to have a horrible end to their season to a bad 2017 Blue Jays team that has been bad for the majority of games played to date. As you can hopefully imagine, it is a lot easier to take an average team and improve them enough in one offseason to get a good team the following season than it is to do the same with what is a bad team the year prior. So in reality, the starting points aren't even remotely comparable.

 

You then need to analyze their free agent signings from that offseason and understand that expecting that type of reproduction or luck is beyond silly. Yes, baseball is random, but if you operate your franchise under the premise that you will replicate that 2013 Red Sox free agent class you are going to have a bad time. They got 5.9 WAR from Shane Victorino who hasn't done a thing since that 2013 season. They signed Koji Uehara for $4.5 mill and he proceeded to produce a 3 WAR season in relief, at the time one of the most dominant single season relief performances in history. They signed Napoli for $5 mill and he produced a 3.9 WAR season. They signed Stephen Drew for $9.5 mill and he produced a 3.4 WAR season. Throw in Saltalamacchia having a fluke 3.5 WAR season himself and it is easy to see how they fluked their way from average to very good in one offseason. Sounds simple, right? You just need all your pedestrian free agent signings to put up elite seasons at the same time. Not just good, but elite. This was of course a complete fluke as most of those same players went on to fall back to reality in 2014 which led to a 71-91 season.

 

You miss the point - You are saying "it is incredibly unlikely that A and B and C and D" will happen.

 

When the proper way to look at it is whether some of A and B and C and D and E and F and G and H and I and J and K and L and M" will happen.

 

You need to collect talent up to M or further, and hope for most to meet expectation and a subset to surprise on the positive side.

[Olerud363]

Look at the 2016 baseball reference team picture. I know their WAR isn't exactly right, however all those players (expect for Edwin and maybe Estrada) will be back next year.

 

If their cumulative WAR goes 30-15 what is the next number?? People are thinking it is 10, when it is more likely 22. Add Alford and other additions....

[Spanky99]

You miss the point - You are saying "it is incredibly unlikely that A and B and C and D" will happen.

 

When the proper way to look at it is whether some of A and B and C and D and E and F and G and H and I and J and K and L and M" will happen.

 

You need to collect talent up to M or further, and hope for most to meet expectation and a subset to surprise on the positive side.

 

lol... I miss Olerud, well said.

[metafour]

Good effort

 

Did I break your rationalism?

 

2012 Red Sox

11-11 in April (+3 run differential)

15-14 in May (+15 run differential)

15-12 in June (+36 run differential)

12-14 in July (-19 run differential)

 

2017 Blue Jays

8-17 in April (-21 run differential)

18-10 in May (+29 run differential)

11-15 in June (-33 run differential)

7-12 in July (-65 run differential)

 

If you want to play rationalist, you can start by using comparisons that actually make sense. So what we have here is actually a Red Sox team that was nowhere near as bad as the final 69-93 record indicates, and on top of that you want to further your rationalism by using one of the single most fluky free agent signing classes in MLB history to dictate that "anything can happen". Yes, anything can happen. You know what else can happen? We can actually get even worse next year than we are right now, and in fact this is much more likely than expecting us to find the 2018 equivalents of Victorino/Napoli/Drew/Uehara in free agency. Those four players alone made a combined $32 million in 2013 and yet produced 16.3 WAR, which means that they produced somewhere around ~$100 million in value depending on what figure you want to use as the value of 1 WAR. You will find that MLB free agency doesn't often grant you upwards of $70 million in excess value on your investments. That isn't even counting Jonny Gomes or David Ross who produced pretty good value as well for them (1.1 WAR for Gomes at $5 million, 0.8 WAR for Ross at $3.1 million).

[L54]

Good effort

 

Be better

[Laika]

Just you wait until I get home tonight, mister

[Laika]

I think we can all agree that the argument of "the team that won 69 games was .500 for a couple of months so they were actually good" is a steaming pile of baby s***

[Spanky99]

Just you wait until I get home tonight, mister

 

lulz

[L54]

Uh oh! Things are about to get super nerdy up here in the rebuilding thread. I can hardly wait.

[Ray]

I'll say this: To go to any team and say not only do we want you to pay a 32-year-old Josh Donaldson $20 million + for 1 year, we also want your top prospects in return is a tough bargain no matter how good he is. The Donaldson trade looks good on paper and he's clearly worth top prospects, but sometimes trades on paper don't make practical sense.

 

3B is a stacked position around the league as it is, and it's true that Donaldson's bat will play anywhere, but a huge part of his value is derived from playing a premium position on the field.

 

Realistically, which team:

 

A) Has the prospects to afford Josh Donaldson?

Has the salary and payroll to afford Josh Donaldson?

C) Has a clear need at 3B or the infield?

D) Is going to be a contender in 2018?

 

Add that to the fact that Machado might also be available in the offseason who's younger and going to be cheaper. You've got Frazier and Moustakas as free agents who can play a competent 3rd for any contender. The stars seem to be aligning against trading Donaldson because the market might not be there. And if you realistically can't move Josh Donaldson for a return that makes sense, it only makes sense to try and contend and not waste his final year.

[Brownie19]

Just you wait until I get home tonight, mister

 

http://i.imgur.com/6dbvtPB.gif

[Spanky99]

I'll say this: To go to any team and say not only do we want you to pay a 32-year-old Josh Donaldson $20 million + for 1 year, we also want your top prospects in return is a tough bargain no matter how good he is. The Donaldson trade looks good on paper and he's clearly worth top prospects, but sometimes trades on paper don't make practical sense.

 

3B is a stacked position around the league as it is, and it's true that Donaldson's bat will play anywhere, but a huge part of his value is derived from playing a premium position on the field.

 

Realistically, which team:

 

A) Has the prospects to afford Josh Donaldson?

Has the salary and payroll to afford Josh Donaldson?

C) Has a clear need at 3B or the infield?

D) Is going to be a contender in 2018?

 

Add that to the fact that Machado might also be available in the offseason who's younger and going to be cheaper. You've got Frazier and Moustakas as free agents who can play a competent 3rd for any contender. The stars seem to be aligning against trading Donaldson because the market might not be there. And if you realistically can't move Josh Donaldson for a return that makes sense, it only makes sense to try and contend and not waste his final year.

 

A) NY Yankees

NY Yankees

C) NY Yankees

D) NY Yankees

 

The bold isn't true.

 

[metafour]

Look at the 2016 baseball reference team picture. I know their WAR isn't exactly right, however all those players (expect for Edwin and maybe Estrada) will be back next year.

 

If their cumulative WAR goes 30-15 what is the next number?? People are thinking it is 10, when it is more likely 22. Add Alford and other additions....

 

You are taking a hilariously simple approach to what needs to be individual analysis. For instance 2016 Pillar and Tulowitzki were elite defenders, which means that they still posted a combined 6 WAR while largely being forgettable hitters. 2017 has seen both of them decline defensively, and since both are well within the age of defensive decline, expecting them to go back to being elite defenders in 2018 is nothing short of wishful thinking. How many defensively elite 33+ year old injury riddled shortstops can you name? Probably not many, and since there is no reason to expect that either Pillar or Tulowitzki will improve enough offensively to offset this defensive decline, you are more or less looking at the same thing next season as you are seeing this season. So while Tulo can certainly go back to being a ~100 wRC+ hitter, the fact is that he is more likely to be even worse defensively than he is today than he is of replicating his 2016 defense. Russell Martin has actually been better this season than he was last season, the scary thought is what happens if he takes a big step back next year...which again is entirely plausible as he is 35 next season and is therefore a ticking time-bomb. 2016 Donaldson was a 7.6 WAR player, what you need to understand is that even if he bounces back next year, it likely means a bounce back to a ~5 WAR season versus him going back to being a super-elite player (these days are likely gone). So there is another 2-3 WAR you have to find elsewhere.

 

When you look at individual analysis, you quickly find that you are stretching into pure wishful thinking when fantasizing scenarios wherein everything somehow goes right for us next season. 2016 also featured an unlikely season wherein we went the entire year without experiencing any significant pitching issues. As you can see from this season, expecting this type of luck on a yearly basis is foolish. What are we predicting for JA Happ next season BTW? Is his FIP-beater magic going to wear off like it did for Estrada this year?

[Brownie19]

A) NY Yankees

NY Yankees

C) NY Yankees

D) NY Yankees

 

 

http://i.imgur.com/QkiiRhf.gif

[Dr. Dinger]

I'll say this: To go to any team and say not only do we want you to pay a 32-year-old Josh Donaldson $20 million + for 1 year, we also want your top prospects in return is a tough bargain no matter how good he is. The Donaldson trade looks good on paper and he's clearly worth top prospects, but sometimes trades on paper don't make practical sense.

 

3B is a stacked position around the league as it is, and it's true that Donaldson's bat will play anywhere, but a huge part of his value is derived from playing a premium position on the field.

 

Realistically, which team:

 

A) Has the prospects to afford Josh Donaldson?

Has the salary and payroll to afford Josh Donaldson?

C) Has a clear need at 3B or the infield?

D) Is going to be a contender in 2018?

 

Add that to the fact that Machado might also be available in the offseason who's younger and going to be cheaper. You've got Frazier and Moustakas as free agents who can play a competent 3rd for any contender. The stars seem to be aligning against trading Donaldson because the market might not be there. And if you realistically can't move Josh Donaldson for a return that makes sense, it only makes sense to try and contend and not waste his final year.

 

I agree with all of this. We probably won't trade Donaldson, simply because at this point he isn't going to return the kind of prospects that would make the deal worthwhile. And in addition to the poor market for 3Bs, we're also seeing significant, recurring soft tissue injuries for Donaldson, and a decline across the board in offensive indicators that may or may not be injury related. Even if he's a 4+ WAR player next year, given his expected salary, we aren't going to get a Top 20 prospect for him.

[Brownie19]

I think we can all agree that the argument of "the team that won 69 games was .500 for a couple of months so they were actually good" is a steaming pile of baby s***

 

http://i.imgur.com/AXoqvDP.gif

[Dr. Dinger]

A) NY Yankees

NY Yankees

C) NY Yankees

D) NY Yankees

 

The bold isn't true.

 

 

The Yankees aren't giving us Gleyber or Frazier for him, and anything less would be inadequate.

[metafour]

I think we can all agree that the argument of "the team that won 69 games was .500 for a couple of months so they were actually good" is a steaming pile of baby s***

 

I said that they were average, in fact I said average multiple times. Try reading next time. The difference ass-hat is that we aren't even average this year. Not by any measure. Average to good is a hell of a lot easier to fluke than bad to good is, which is actually exactly what the 2013 Red Sox did as we can see from 2014 when Shane f***ing Victorino stopped being one of the best players in baseball.

[Brownie19]

I said that they were average, in fact I said average multiple times. Try reading next time. The difference ass-hat is that we aren't even average this year. Not by any measure. Average to good is a hell of a lot easier to fluke than bad to good is, which is actually exactly what the 2013 Red Sox did as we can see from 2014 when Shane f***ing Victorino stopped being one of the best players in baseball.

 

You need to acknowledge the massive block of text that is your average post deters a lot of readers and most of your points are lost as a result.

[Spanky99]

The Yankees aren't giving us Gleyber or Frazier for him, and anything less would be inadequate.

 

I know mate, that was pretty much my point, not to mention GM's don't trade in division because, reasons.