Is the 2017 team better, worse or equivalent to the 2016 team

[intentional wok]

Baltimore has a very real chance of finishing last this year. I see the Jays in the Wild Card hunt. I Don't see any other East team competing too much with Boston.

 

Last overall or last in the East? Last in the East isn't isn't really comparable to the last space squads in the NL divisions. The O's are going to be a mega pain in the ass, although the astounding luck they had last year with Britton being perfect probably doesn't repeat and probably keeps them from even getting to 83 wins. Machado, Davis, Jones, Trumbo in the heart of the order is still a pretty good way for an evening watching baseball to be ruined.

[Spanky99]

Is the first paragraph serious?

 

Is this thread serious? Off-season isn't over and it's quite similar, regardless.

[KevinGregg]

Quantitatively worse than last year. We're an old team that is a year older. We lost 2 key performers and replaced them with lesser players without improving in other areas. The farm system isn't in any better of a position to help us immediately. I can't really pinpoint a single area where we have improved.

I like this year's rotation over last year's.

Liriano > Dickey

Everyone's also a year older, which should be excellent news overall as we would expect Stroman and Sanchez to both still be improving. Stroman especially has a chance to have a much better year.

[Gary]

All depends on Pearce.

[bronson44]

Quantitatively worse than last year. We're an old team that is a year older. We lost 2 key performers and replaced them with lesser players without improving in other areas. The farm system isn't in any better of a position to help us immediately. I can't really pinpoint a single area where we have improved.

 

I think the bullpen will be better, especially if they keep Biagini there and make another solid addition. I remember it being kind of a tire fire in the first half until Grilli came along and Cecil sorted himself out.

[bones10]

f*** can the season just start, my life has been awful since the off season started.

 

and yes, they are objectively a worse team, but they could still be in the hunt for that second wild card if the starters can carry like they did last year.

 

I dread to see Martin perform like he did last year, Tulo as well.

[Spanky99]

We'll win the East. I have little doubt.

[bones10]

We'll win the East. I have little doubt.

 

Can you give us a peak at the mental gymnastics you perform to come to this conclusion?

[Jimcanuck]

voted similar

 

team reminds me of the .500 teams from between 95 and 2015.... chance to be very good, but with a few bad breaks mediocre or worse

 

last season was lucky health wise

 

team needs infusion of young blood and by their comments, Shatkins is working towards this

[Spanky99]

Can you give us a peak at the mental gymnastics you perform to come to this conclusion?

 

Play ball... win games.

[Spanky99]

Can you give us a peak at the mental gymnastics you perform to come to this conclusion?

 

Clowns like you have said the same the past 2 years... yet...

[wk680]

Better. Cecil went 1-7 and he's gone. Dickey went 10-15 and he's gone. So all the Jays have to do is replace their 11-22 with .500 pitchers and they are 5.5 games better. In fact, Liriano went 2-2 last year in 8 starts so he'll probably go something like 12-12 over 33 starts so the Jays already have most of that covered.

 

Subtract 3.5 for the WAR difference on Edwin versus Morales and the Jays are still 2 games better. 91 wins for 2017.

 

I assume you are talking about EE's 2016 WAR versus what Morales is projected to contribute in 2017. In that case it is a difference between 3.9 fWAR (EE 2016) and 0.8-0.9 fWAR (Morales 2017 projections); so about 3 fWAR less. On the other hand, if you compare 2017 projections for EE (2.1-2.14) and Morales (0.8-0.9), the difference is much smaller. It will be very interesting to see how they both perform. Lots of pressure on both of them.

 

As for the pitching, I agree there is the potential for better in both rotation and bullpen. It was a bad year in 2016 for Cecil with the early struggles and mid-season DL stint. Also, surprised the name of Storen has not been mentioned yet in this thread. The first half bullpen was a mess, so we can hope for better and overall a better record in close games.

Edited February 3, 2017 by wk680

[Spanky99]

 

It's that simple^^^^^

[bones10]

Clowns like you have said the same the past 2 years... yet...

 

your justification is just homerism, got it, thanks.

[Spanky99]

your justification is just homerism, got it, thanks.

 

Just win... baby!!!

 

Homerism past 2 years ALCS. losses.

 

Explain that to me?

[wk680]

 

It's that simple^^^^^

 

LOL. The same season as that monologue was given, his Jets squeaked into the playoffs, winning the division on a tie-breaker with a mediocre 9-7 record. They went on to humiliate my Colts 41-0 in the first playoff game but lost 30 to 10 in the next round.

[Spanky99]

LOL. The same season as that monologue was made, his Jets squeaked into the playoffs, winning the division on a tie-breaker with a mediocre 9-7 record. They went on to humiliate my Colts 41-0 in the first playoff game but lost 30 to 10 in the next round.

 

Right... post-season is good.

[bones10]

Just win... baby!!!

 

Homerism past 2 years ALCS. losses.

 

Explain that to me?

 

I can't, you got me man.

[Rusty_Savage]

your justification is just homerism, got it, thanks.

 

You take the Internet too seriously

[Spanky99]

You take the Internet too seriously

 

I'm still right.

[Rusty_Savage]

I'm still right.

 

I know, Jays Rule!

[Spanky99]

I know, Jays Rule!

 

This is true...

[jaysfan2014]

Probably similar with an upgrade at backup catcher, and no Dickey/Thole. The drop from Edwin to Morales is a bit of a wash--and there's no guarantee Edwin will continue to put up the same numbers in Cleveland than in Toronto--the increasing K rate is a concern, plus he's going to unfavorable ballparks in the AL Central which could dent his numbers.. most of his HRs career were hit in hitter's parks in the AL East, Philly and Cincinnatti. Wouldn't be shocked if he sees his HR total drop to 30 or less.. Plus, getting Saunders out will help the D a little bit--Saunders was awful in LF.

 

Could use another arm or two in the pen, though, and maybe another OF, then they'd be better.

[SAAviour]

Stroman likely better with a stronger knee.

Sanchez,Happ, Estrada hopefully equivalent.

Liriano better then Dickey.

 

1b Pearce worse then EE.

DH equivalent.

2b equivalent.

SS equivalent with hopefully not a s*** first two months.

3b equivalent or better...I think JD was fighting injuries all year.

C Martin age regression made up for with no Thole. So equivalent.

LF worse unless Pompey figures it out, or Guirell (sp?)

Cf equivalent

Rf equivalent with real possibility of Jose bounce back.

 

Bullpen is a crap shoot as always.

 

Very similar team, with no loss from the minors= a fairly successful off season that I originally thought was garbage.

I'm guessing we play meaningful September baseball which we all begged for, for 22 years, possible wild card.

[SAAviour]

Having said all that, Jose could suck, Martin and Tulo could hit a wall and suck, Travis poor exit velocity could catch up with him, Estrada could break his back, Liriano could be first half Liriano, Sanchez could blow his elbow out, The bullpen could be garbage, Pearce could play 59 games, LF could hit a combined .150....and we could lose 100 games.

[John_Havok]

Marginally worse, maybe 2-3 wins worse, unless we get fortunate with health again which could bring it up to even.

 

If we get bad health luck, we'll be lucky to sniff .500

 

With this team and it's age it's easy to see anywhere from 75 to 90+ wins.

[Spanky99]

Marginally worse, maybe 2-3 wins worse, unless we get fortunate with health again which could bring it up to even.

 

If we get bad health luck, we'll be lucky to sniff .500

 

With this team and it's age it's easy to see anywhere from 75 to 90+ wins.

 

89 again.

[Grant77]

I like this year's rotation over last year's.

Liriano > Dickey

Everyone's also a year older, which should be excellent news overall as we would expect Stroman and Sanchez to both still be improving. Stroman especially has a chance to have a much better year.

 

I get what you're saying, but we pretty much had the best rotation in the league. To expect any significant improvement, to me, is unrealistic. Also, we are an old team overall. Some players will improve, but another year gone by is generally bad news for us.

[Bobthe4th]

I get what you're saying, but we pretty much had the best rotation in the league. To expect any significant improvement, to me, is unrealistic. Also, we are an old team overall. Some players will improve, but another year gone by is generally bad news for us.

 

Realistically though all the old position players didn't have great years last year, so they've not got as much to live up to, and there is a good chance some bounce back.

 

Martin and Tulo - both had terrible starts with the bat.

Bautista - 2 major injuries, worst season in years.

Pearce - bit part player.

Morales - 0.7 WAR.

Carrera - 0.7 WAR

Upton - 1.2 WAR

 

Pitching wise:

 

relievers are so variable even if Grilli is bad, someone else will step up (Barnes?).

Starters - yes Happ and Estrada may struggle to repeat last year. But Liriano wasn't very good overall, and a year of extra experience is a very good thing for Stroman and Sanchez. Sanchez with no inning restrictions too.

[Bobthe4th]

I voted similar.

 

Biggest chances for worse years IMO:

 

Carrera, Grilli, Estrada, Morales (compared to EE), Biagini.

 

Biggest chances for better years IMO:

 

Tulo, Pearce, Bautista, Travis (can he finally play a whole season?), Stroman (better results, not necessarily performance), Barnes (if he's used more).