Around Baseball 2017

[glory]

Didn't Farrell work in player development for Cleveland when Shapiro was the GM?

 

Just warning you guys in case he joins the org in a different capacity. Don't think he will though. The way he left kind of left a mark.

[Dick_Pole]

So basically, we still disagree and an argument is warranted.

 

Thanks for the input there, Mr. Mediator.

 

Gotta love my mediation skills though.

 

"Holy f*** you people are such dumb f***s arguing about this."

 

I should become a professional arbitrator.

[Olerud363]

Not surprised

 

He was never a good manager

 

Really?? The Red Sox seemed to have good offenses under him, get on base, and he brought along several young players and got their careers off to good starts, Betts, Bradley, Bogaerts, Benintendi, Devers.

 

I guess my opinion of managers will always be shaped by Cito Gaston, who hated young players and on base percentage, so if a manager seems to at least tolerate young players and on base percentage, he's awesome in my book.

 

ha ha, low standards I guess.

 

ironically Cito almost lost his job in 1991 for the same reason Farrell did, a couple of quick exits in the playoffs, Beeston apparently wouldn't let Gillick fire him...

[G-Snarls]

Really?? The Red Sox seemed to have good offenses under him, get on base, and he brought along several young players and got their careers off to good starts, Betts, Bradley, Bogaerts, Benintendi, Devers..

 

I don't think John Farrell deserves much if any credit for how well those guys hit in their rookie years

[Spanky__99]

I don't think John Farrell deserves much if any credit for how well those guys hit in their rookie years

 

Agreed, that's more on development, but I love Olerud's Cito rants, Farrell did let them play and not try to change their approach. Yet, he's more renowned as a Pitching Coach, that's about it, and looking like American Dad!

 

Edit: Man was Cito ever a BAD manager, reminds me of Girardi, but worst.

[Spanky__99]

The most attractive Canadian sportscaster is Sara Orlesky

 

 

Yes, her and Natasha are mint.

[Spanky__99]

I agree on both Jennifer Hedger and Kate Beirness (both over Jackie Redmond, who when she was with the Score was always in Shoeless Joes with Big Red as he'd be betting the track...she seemed down to earth and not into her appearance back then. That was more attractive)

 

Spanky was it Jennifer Hedger in front of us at the first Jays Game we went to together? I seem to remember a Spanky chant with that name in it.

 

Wasn't Hedger, was this young lady "LETS GO OSMAK... *CLAP,CLAP* *CLAP,CLAP,CLAP* lol, she loved it!

 

 

Do you remember now, Hurl, lol.

[TheHurl]

Do you remember now, Hurl, lol.

 

EVon-Ka Oz-Mack

 

clap, clap clap-clap-clap

[Olerud363]

I don't think John Farrell deserves much if any credit for how well those guys hit in their rookie years

 

The manager decides playing time, possibly platoons guys, decides on hitting philosophy, supervises the coaches including the hitting coach, decides what position guys play... Also sets clubhouse rules and culture.

 

Atleast traditionally that's what he did. In 2017, with analytics based front offices, the manager has less power.

 

Here is a question, what if JimCanuck (a traditionalist) was manager in 2019... Ryan Goins is hitting .270 .310 .350 with eye test awesome defense but not great fangraphs defense, and Bo Bichette is hitting .320 with power in Buffalo, and the Jays are in a pennant race??

 

Goins ofcourse needs to play the rest of the year. Then the Jays win a pennant. The next year does Bichette get a job at short??

 

I know JimCanuck would "probably" find a place for Bichette... on the hand if Bichette started slow, who knows. There are plenty of times a manager loses patience with a young guy, and the Ryan Goins of the world get too much playing time.

[Angrioter]

Dream Job is gone!!

 

[Dr. Dinger]

Lol soon to be 32 year old Greg Holland and his 4.05 xFIP have declined a $15M player option for 2018. Not sure what Boras is thinking on this one, there's no chance he'll top that AAV in FA. He'll be lucky to get 2/$20M.

[Abomination]

Lol soon to be 32 year old Greg Holland and his 4.05 xFIP have declined a $15M player option for 2018. Not sure what Boras is thinking on this one, there's no chance he'll top that AAV in FA. He'll be lucky to get 2/$20M.

 

He won't top the AAV, but I wouldn't be at all surprised to see him get 4/40.

 

Given how volatile relievers can be, the security of 3 or 4 years is probably more valuable.

[JuniorFelix]

That's a great shot, goddamn.

 

She's my fave of all the ladies that have been mentioned in this thread so far. Love me some Osmak!!

[Dr. Dinger]

He won't top the AAV, but I wouldn't be at all surprised to see him get 4/40.

 

Given how volatile relievers can be, the security of 3 or 4 years is probably more valuable.

 

It's hard to imagine any team being stupid enough in this day and age to give a contract of that size to a 1 WAR reliever who is one year removed from major surgery and entering his twilight years. He's just not that good, at all.

[Abomination]

Baseball has set the QO for next year at 17.4 million (less than expected).

[Jimcanuck]

The manager decides playing time, possibly platoons guys, decides on hitting philosophy, supervises the coaches including the hitting coach, decides what position guys play... Also sets clubhouse rules and culture.

 

Atleast traditionally that's what he did. In 2017, with analytics based front offices, the manager has less power.

 

Here is a question, what if JimCanuck (a traditionalist) was manager in 2019... Ryan Goins is hitting .270 .310 .350 with eye test awesome defense but not great fangraphs defense, and Bo Bichette is hitting .320 with power in Buffalo, and the Jays are in a pennant race??

 

Goins ofcourse needs to play the rest of the year. Then the Jays win a pennant. The next year does Bichette get a job at short??

 

I know JimCanuck would "probably" find a place for Bichette... on the hand if Bichette started slow, who knows. There are plenty of times a manager loses patience with a young guy, and the Ryan Goins of the world get too much playing time.

 

If Goins had a season like that, I would be looking to trade his ass ASAP.

 

And no, I am not a traditionalist. Whatever gave you that idea? I'm in favour of a balanced use of sabermetrics and scouting.

[Deadpool]

Ryan Goins is hitting .270 .310 .350

 

Okay, in what universe is Ryan Goins putting up that line? He might even be a useful bench piece if he could put up that line.

[Abomination]

Okay, in what universe is Ryan Goins putting up that line? He might even be a useful bench piece if he could put up that line.

 

He put up .250 .318 .354 in 2015, and .267 .305 .385 in the second half this year. The suggested line certainly isn't ridiculous, even if it is somewhat unlikely.

 

(I'm only responding to this part, not making any comment about the rest of Olerud's post).

[Dr. Dinger]

Report: Marlins to cut payroll to $90 million

Clark Spencer of the Miami Herald reports that new Marlins owners Bruce Sherman and Derek Jeter plan to cut the team's 2018 payroll to around $90 million.

The Marlins' payroll was a franchise-record $115 million in 2017 and is currently projected to be around $140 million in 2018 when factoring in impending raises. That means a lot of changes are coming, with a trade of Giancarlo Stanton and the $295 million remaining on his contract looking possible, if not probable. Marcell Ozuna, Christian Yelich and Dee Gordon are some other players Miami might look to move.

[P2F]

Lol

[Dr. Dinger]

I wonder what we would have to give up if we took on the bulk of Stanton's contract + Dee. The Marlins would probably take scraps just to shed those two salaries, under the circumstances. Stanton's contract is already under water and he's coming off a career year.

[G-Snarls]

Damn.. Anorher slash and burn in Miami

[Dr. Dinger]

Actually, his contract might not be underwater, depending on (1) inflation of $/1WAR, (2) time missed due to injury, (3) rate of decline. Here's how his contract could play out under an optimistic scenario where he posts 6 WAR in 2018 and declines by 0.5 WAR per year thereafter.

 

Even so, there is so much financial and injury risk involved, the Marlins will be lucky to get any Top 25 prospects for him. More likely they'll have to take a package of a Top 50 prospect + some flier prospects; a quantity package that maybe allows them to save face to some degree. Either that or they eat money, but that doesn't seem to be an option.

 

[TABLE=width: 583]

[TR]

[TD]Year[/TD]

[TD]Age[/TD]

[TD]Salary[/TD]

[TD]Est. $/1WAR[/TD]

[TD]Break-Even WAR[/TD]

[TD]Projected WAR[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD]2018[/TD]

[TD]28[/TD]

[TD]$25,000,000[/TD]

[TD]$10,000,000[/TD]

[TD]2.5[/TD]

[TD]6[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD]2019[/TD]

[TD]29[/TD]

[TD]$26,000,000[/TD]

[TD]$10,500,000[/TD]

[TD]2.5[/TD]

[TD]5.5[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD]2020[/TD]

[TD]30[/TD]

[TD]$26,000,000[/TD]

[TD]$11,000,000[/TD]

[TD]2.4[/TD]

[TD]5[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD]2021[/TD]

[TD]31[/TD]

[TD]$29,000,000[/TD]

[TD]$11,500,000[/TD]

[TD]2.5[/TD]

[TD]4.5[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD]2022[/TD]

[TD]32[/TD]

[TD]$29,000,000[/TD]

[TD]$12,000,000[/TD]

[TD]2.4[/TD]

[TD]4[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD]2022[/TD]

[TD]33[/TD]

[TD]$32,000,000[/TD]

[TD]$12,500,000[/TD]

[TD]2.6[/TD]

[TD]3.5[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD]2023[/TD]

[TD]34[/TD]

[TD]$32,000,000[/TD]

[TD]$13,000,000[/TD]

[TD]2.5[/TD]

[TD]3[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD]2024[/TD]

[TD]35[/TD]

[TD]$32,000,000[/TD]

[TD]$13,500,000[/TD]

[TD]2.4[/TD]

[TD]2.5[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD]2025[/TD]

[TD]36[/TD]

[TD]$32,000,000[/TD]

[TD]$14,000,000[/TD]

[TD]2.3[/TD]

[TD]2[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD]2026[/TD]

[TD]37[/TD]

[TD]$29,000,000[/TD]

[TD]$14,500,000[/TD]

[TD]2.0[/TD]

[TD]1.5[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD]2027[/TD]

[TD]38[/TD]

[TD]$25,000,000[/TD]

[TD]$15,000,000[/TD]

[TD]1.7[/TD]

[TD]1[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD]Totals[/TD]

[TD]-[/TD]

[TD]$317,000,000[/TD]

[TD]-[/TD]

[TD]25.6[/TD]

[TD]38.5[/TD]

[/TR]

[/TABLE]

[P2F]

It seems to me that Jeter should've saved some of that gift basket money.

[Abomination]

I wonder what we would have to give up if we took on the bulk of Stanton's contract + Dee. The Marlins would probably take scraps just to shed those two salaries, under the circumstances. Stanton's contract is already under water and he's coming off a career year.

 

I have to think very little. No one claimed him off revocable waivers. Those two would be absolutely perfect fits for us though.

[z3r0s]

Dee would sure look sexy at the bottom of our order. Don't want him to get a ton of PA's, but its great when he gets on base when your lineup turns over.

 

Stanton in the AL East parks would be a monster.

[G-Snarls]

Yeah

 

Don't see them eating salary on anyone

 

They'll dump what they can

 

But how many teams can afford Stanton on that contract? Not many.

[Dr. Dinger]

Dee would sure look sexy at the bottom of our order.r.

 

I would enjoy him at leadoff if he is going to be .340-.350 OBP Dee Gordon, as opposed to .300 OBP Dee Gordon.

[BTS]

Actually, his contract might not be underwater, depending on (1) inflation of $/1WAR, (2) time missed due to injury, (3) rate of decline. Here's how his contract could play out under an optimistic scenario where he posts 6 WAR in 2018 and declines by 0.5 WAR per year thereafter.

 

Even so, there is so much financial and injury risk involved, the Marlins will be lucky to get any Top 25 prospects for him. More likely they'll have to take a package of a Top 50 prospect + some flier prospects; a quantity package that maybe allows them to save face to some degree. Either that or they eat money, but that doesn't seem to be an option.

 

[TABLE=width: 583]

[TR]

[TD]Year[/TD]

[TD]Age[/TD]

[TD]Salary[/TD]

[TD]Est. $/1WAR[/TD]

[TD]Break-Even WAR[/TD]

[TD]Projected WAR[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD]2018[/TD]

[TD]28[/TD]

[TD]$25,000,000[/TD]

[TD]$10,000,000[/TD]

[TD]2.5[/TD]

[TD]6[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD]2019[/TD]

[TD]29[/TD]

[TD]$26,000,000[/TD]

[TD]$10,500,000[/TD]

[TD]2.5[/TD]

[TD]5.5[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD]2020[/TD]

[TD]30[/TD]

[TD]$26,000,000[/TD]

[TD]$11,000,000[/TD]

[TD]2.4[/TD]

[TD]5[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD]2021[/TD]

[TD]31[/TD]

[TD]$29,000,000[/TD]

[TD]$11,500,000[/TD]

[TD]2.5[/TD]

[TD]4.5[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD]2022[/TD]

[TD]32[/TD]

[TD]$29,000,000[/TD]

[TD]$12,000,000[/TD]

[TD]2.4[/TD]

[TD]4[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD]2022[/TD]

[TD]33[/TD]

[TD]$32,000,000[/TD]

[TD]$12,500,000[/TD]

[TD]2.6[/TD]

[TD]3.5[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD]2023[/TD]

[TD]34[/TD]

[TD]$32,000,000[/TD]

[TD]$13,000,000[/TD]

[TD]2.5[/TD]

[TD]3[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD]2024[/TD]

[TD]35[/TD]

[TD]$32,000,000[/TD]

[TD]$13,500,000[/TD]

[TD]2.4[/TD]

[TD]2.5[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD]2025[/TD]

[TD]36[/TD]

[TD]$32,000,000[/TD]

[TD]$14,000,000[/TD]

[TD]2.3[/TD]

[TD]2[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD]2026[/TD]

[TD]37[/TD]

[TD]$29,000,000[/TD]

[TD]$14,500,000[/TD]

[TD]2.0[/TD]

[TD]1.5[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD]2027[/TD]

[TD]38[/TD]

[TD]$25,000,000[/TD]

[TD]$15,000,000[/TD]

[TD]1.7[/TD]

[TD]1[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD]Totals[/TD]

[TD]-[/TD]

[TD]$317,000,000[/TD]

[TD]-[/TD]

[TD]25.6[/TD]

[TD]38.5[/TD]

[/TR]

[/TABLE]

 

I'd put a lot of money on Stanton not accruing 30 WAR over the rest of his career.

[jays_fever]

I'd rather pay Stanton than Donaldson for 2020 and beyond.

 

I'm sure some team will still give up a few B- prospects for him plus his salary