Difference between 2016 and 2017

[AdamGreenwood]

Last year, the Jays grabbed the second wildcard, with a record of 89-73.

The closest teams to eliminating us from post-season contention were:

 

Detroit 86-75

Yankees 84-78

Seattle 86-76

Houston 84-78

 

It's also important to note that we tied with Baltimore with the same record.

 

So, where does that leave us for 2017?

 

The Yankees have probably stayed the same. They've lost their big bats (A-Rod, Tex). Their bullpen is actually worse than last year, as they've lost Miller. (They had Chapman to start the season last year too). And they're relying on three rookies (Sanchez, Bird, Judge).

 

The Tigers have pretty much announced a fire sale, and seem unlikely to compete for the next couple centuries, with the state of their economy.

 

Seattle added Segura, and didn't make any other major moves, but have some older players they rely on. (Kuma, Cruz, Cano).

 

The Astros are going to be absolute beasts. Bregman, Gurriel, Giles and Beltran are going to make a big difference over last year.

 

The Orioles haven't done anything significant and might still lose Trumbo.

 

So, assuming that Boston, Cleveland and Texas win their divisions, we can only let one of these teams (Houston) finish ahead of us and still make the playoffs.

 

So, let's compare this year to last year.

Disclaimer, I am just pulling these numbers out of my ass, so feel free to argue/disagree.

 

C: Martin/Thole vs Martin/Unknown = +0.2 WAR

1B: Smoak/Colabello vs Smoak/Pearce = +.5 WAR

2B: Goins/Barney vs Travis(healthy)= + 1 WAR

3B: Donadlson: same

SS: Tulowitzki: same

 

CF: Pillar: same

RF: Bautista vs Carrera = -2 WAR

LF: Saunders vs Upton Jr. = -0.5 WAR

DH: Encarnacion vs. Morales = -2.5 WAR

 

SP1: Sanchez vs Sanchez = same

SP2: Stroman = same

SP3: JA Happ = same

SP4: Marco Estrada = same

SP5: Dickey vs Liriano = + 1.5 WAR

 

RP 1 Osuna: same

RP 2: Biagini vs Biagini: + 0.5 WAR

RP 3: Cecil vs. Sparkman: -1 WAR

RP 4: Chavez vs. Tepera

RP 5: Grilli vs. Grilli: -0.3 WAR

RP 6: Storen vs. Loup = same

RP 7: Floyd vs. Bolsinger = + 0.3 WAR

 

Bench: Gourriel vs bunch of scrubs: + 0.5 WAR

 

Summary

 

Infield: + 1.7 WAR

Outfield/DH: - 5 WAR

Starters: + 1.5 WAR

Bullpen: - 0.5 WAR

Bench: + 0.5 WAR

 

Total -1.8 WAR

 

Hopefully, we add an outfielder better than Carerra to start the season.

Edited December 9, 2016 by AdamGreenwood

[Laika]

lol

[Laika]

so TL;DR Toronto needs an OF

[Governator]

Why don't you just use projections to get these numbers?

[Dr. Dinger]

I fail to see the point in doing this exercise when the off-season isn't remotely close to finished.

[AdamGreenwood]

I fail to see the point in doing this exercise when the off-season isn't remotely close to finished.

 

It's a living post. I can update it.

[Laika]

I fail to see the point in doing this exercise when the off-season isn't remotely close to finished.

 

Friday at 1pm... I'm going to guess the point is procrastination.

[AdamGreenwood]

why don't you just use projections to get these numbers?

 

borrrr.....ing.

[Dr. Dinger]

Friday at 1pm... I'm going to guess the point is procrastination.

 

Ugh I hate it when I run out of interesting things to Google at work.

[BTS]

Ugh I hate it when I run out of interesting things to Google at work.

 

I don't even know how I'd get through the work week if this forum disappeared.

[Governator]

I don't even know how I'd get through the work week if this forum disappeared.

 

I'd probably turn in to a productive worker, or something.

[burlingtonbandit]

I don't think you could just assume Boston, Clevleand and Texas all win their divisions (certainly not the last one). Injuries and performance variance happens look at Washington a couple years ago.

 

Even if you say all those teams make the playoffs + Houston that really only leaves NY and Seattle as the only competition for the other playoff spot.

[BTS]

I'd probably turn in to a productive worker, or something.

 

Let's not get carried away here.

[Governator]

Let's not get carried away here.

 

Yeah I mean, with my new mod status now I'll be able to add like 20 hours per week of babysitt... err volunteer hours on my Linkedin profile anyway.

[RealAccountant]

Saunder's 1.5 WAR has mysteriously dissipated.

[AdamGreenwood]

Saunder's 1.5 WAR has mysteriously dissipated.

 

Oh yeah, I forgot about Saunders good point.

[BTS]

Yeah I mean, with my new mod status now I'll be able to add like 20 hours per week of babysitt... err volunteer hours on my Linkedin profile anyway.

 

2016 - present

Moderator: BJMB.com

* moderated vibrant message board with iron fist

* banned dozens of trolls per week

* dealt with Spanky99

[Brownie19]

Oh yeah, I forgot about Saunders good point.

 

We all have - don't feel bad.

[Governator]

2016 - present

Moderator: BJMB.com

* moderated vibrant message board with iron fist

* banned dozens of trolls per week

* dealt with BigBounceyBlueBalls

 

ftfy(me). My resume will really stand out now.

[Pendleton]

ftfy(me). My resume will really stand out now.

 

Might want to consider using Stangstag as a reference

[TheHurl]

ftfy(me). My resume will really stand out now.

 

So you can add life coach to your profile with BBBB

[Abomination]

How does Pearce over Colabello only add 0.5 WAR? Are you projecting Pearce to be 0 WAR next year, because Colabello was -0.5.

[43211234]

Expecting the starting pitching to be better in 2017 is crazy.

[Governator]

So you can add life coach to your profile with BBBB

 

 

By the time summer rolls in I'll be qualified for an anger management counselor job.

[intentional wok]

Expecting the starting pitching to be better in 2017 is crazy.

 

Better, maybe not. But I don't think it's unfair to say it won't hover around matching it. Maybe I'm just too excited that Liriano will bounce back, but I see him as being able to compensate a bit for any potential setbacks from the other guys (as long as there aren't multiple huge underperformances).

 

Also, to the original post:

 

Let's be fair to the Orioles here. The Blue Jays were awarded the first Wild Card by strength of head-to-head.