Current Roster's Contending Window - Assuming Bautista and Encarnacion re-signed?

[Olerud363]

Why would there be no moves to replace Saunders/EE/JB? That's nonsensical.

 

JB put up 1.5 WAR this year and we did just fine... Ryan Goins put up 1.5 WAR last year...

 

Here's an option, sign Josh Reddick for cheap and platoon him with Upton as the lefty bat. JB is replaced for like $5MM. Probably get more WAR out of RF then we did this year.

 

These guys don't understand the most basic concept of WAR. It is measured with reference to replacement value. If Bautista and EE are 5 WAR, and you "replace" them with some guys just lying around in aaa, yes you lose those 5 wins.

 

That's not the case. They would be replaced with new players from a trade or free agent. Some combination of Reddick, Morrales, Alex Gordon??, Napoli, Beltran, Fowler... who knows who exactly.

 

You don't just replace Bautista and EE with RANDOM guys lying around... if you did, yes you would lose 5 wins. You replace them with other players that are above replacement value.

[Governator]

Why do you think Josh Reddick would come cheap? How cheap are we talking about here? He put up an offensive WAR of 3.5-4 in pitcher-friendly parks, is 29 years of age, and could possibly be overvalued in a market where there isn't much hitting to go around. He can't hit left handed pitching but his historical numbers weren't as atrocious as they were this season.

 

He signed a 1 year $6.5MM contract this year that didn't work out. He'll be cheap.

 

If we can replace half of Bautista's ABs with a LHB for pennies on the dollar that would be a damn big plus for this team. As well the Jays can easily market him by leveraging Donaldson. "Josh Donaldson is joining forces with ex-Oakland teammate where they were a 96 win postseason team together", fans will eat that s*** up. It's an easy marketing move to get fans excited around Donaldson and forgetting Bautista while providing plus value.

[RealAccountant]

Why would there be no moves to replace Saunders/EE/JB? That's nonsensical.

 

JB put up 1.5 WAR this year and we did just fine... Ryan Goins put up 1.5 WAR last year...

 

Here's an option, sign Josh Reddick for cheap and platoon him with Upton as the lefty bat. JB is replaced for like $5MM. Probably get more WAR out of RF then we did this year.

 

Josh Reddick is not signing cheap.

[Olerud363]

There will be some random scenario that no one is anticipating yet

 

Bautista EE - 5 WAR

 

Jays acquire Nick Markakis, Jays sign Kenry Morales - 3.5 WAR

 

down only 1.5... Jays improve some other position(s) as well

 

They will sit down with the poindexters and come up with a way to create an 88 win projected team (teams ussually don't project much above 90, the 95++ win teams almost always have positive luck as well).

[Governator]

Josh Reddick is not signing cheap.

 

Cheaper than JB and this year he was only useful against RHP.

[Candide]

These guys don't understand the most basic concept of WAR. It is measured with reference to replacement value. If Bautista and EE are 5 WAR, and you "replace" them with some guys just lying around in aaa, yes you lose those 5 wins.

 

That's not the case. They would be replaced with new players from a trade or free agent. Some combination of Reddick, Morrales, Alex Gordon??, Napoli, Beltran, Fowler... who knows who exactly.

 

You don't just replace Bautista and EE with RANDOM guys lying around... if you did, yes you would lose 5 wins. You replace them with other players that are above replacement value.

 

if you're referring to me, I'm familiar with the concept of WAR. I'm just throwing ideas around in terms of who could replace EE/Jose. Of course if you replace them with players, you recoup the WAR. My point is that you don't know who they might be replaced with. If EE/Jose and their 6 WAR leave because of their contractual demands and you fill them with 2 regular, positional players with the same cumulative WAR while saving $10 million, obviously you go for it. My point is that with the current market, I don't see this happening. You could say, sign Reddick, Morrales, and Gordon and a few utility bats to yield the same production in 2016. I don't see how that would be significantly cheaper what it might take to retain EE/Jose. When factoring in the fact that 1) there are other declining assets in Tulowitzki and Martin, any FA upgrades would likely have to be predicated on the fact there would have to be a net gain to EE/Jose's production this season; and 2) the organic improvement of Boston/New York next season with the budget to sign players (and possibly either outbid Toronto and/or drive up the asking price of the said players in Reddick, Morrales, Gordon, etc. to sign in Toronto), the $/WAR challenge for Shartkins becomes more challenging this offseason.

 

Fundamentally, I see the issue as delay the inevitable tear-down by 1 or 2 seasons to re-up Jose/EE and contend or tear down this offseason. I'm fine with either option, but I'm not optimistic that the Jays should try to retool via replacing Jose/EE since I don't see how they will get a more economical return with this winter's crop of FAs. I see trading for Votto or any other positional player at fair exchange to be a bad option too seeing as how the Jays are just starting to replenish their system; justification of having the comp picks offset this loss may have some merit, but does result in delaying the rebuilding window further by a few years. The structural issue with this current squad starting 2017 onwards is that there are a bunch of mid-30s contributors and solid 21-25 year olds, but nothing in between. That's why I'm skeptical of how effective a retool would be given the roster's age dichotomy.

 

p.s. let's not get too personal here with the accusations and assumptions. I'm enjoying the discussion and keen to read your opinions!

[Dr Negative]

There will be some random scenario that no one is anticipating yet

 

Bautista EE - 5 WAR

 

Jays acquire Nick Markakis, Jays sign Kenry Morales - 3.5 WAR

 

down only 1.5... Jays improve some other position(s) as well

 

They will sit down with the poindexters and come up with a way to create an 88 win projected team (teams ussually don't project much above 90, the 95++ win teams almost always have positive luck as well).

 

Nick Markakis is awful these days.

[Olerud363]

Nick Markakis is awful these days.

 

He's a 1 WAR player according to fwar... all I'm saying is that if you theoretically lost Bautista and EE (5 WAR combined at this point), you could probably find 2 players to get 2-3 WAR pretty easilly

 

So it's not a 5 WAR loss, it's a 2 WAR loss and then you can improve else where.

[TheHurl]

Contending window is to the end of October. Not saying that they won't contend next year, but I'm not sure what the obsession would be at this point.

[Olerud363]

if you're referring to me, I'm familiar with the concept of WAR. I'm just throwing ideas around in terms of who could replace EE/Jose. Of course if you replace them with players, you recoup the WAR. My point is that you don't know who they might be replaced with. If EE/Jose and their 6 WAR leave because of their contractual demands and you fill them with 2 regular, positional players with the same cumulative WAR while saving $10 million, obviously you go for it. My point is that with the current market, I don't see this happening. You could say, sign Reddick, Morrales, and Gordon and a few utility bats to yield the same production in 2016. I don't see how that would be significantly cheaper what it might take to retain EE/Jose. When factoring in the fact that 1) there are other declining assets in Tulowitzki and Martin, any FA upgrades would likely have to be predicated on the fact there would have to be a net gain to EE/Jose's production this season; and 2) the organic improvement of Boston/New York next season with the budget to sign players (and possibly either outbid Toronto and/or drive up the asking price of the said players in Reddick, Morrales, Gordon, etc. to sign in Toronto), the $/WAR challenge for Shartkins becomes more challenging this offseason.

 

Fundamentally, I see the issue as delay the inevitable tear-down by 1 or 2 seasons to re-up Jose/EE and contend or tear down this offseason. I'm fine with either option, but I'm not optimistic that the Jays should try to retool via replacing Jose/EE since I don't see how they will get a more economical return with this winter's crop of FAs. I see trading for Votto or any other positional player at fair exchange to be a bad option too seeing as how the Jays are just starting to replenish their system; justification of having the comp picks offset this loss may have some merit, but does result in delaying the rebuilding window further by a few years. The structural issue with this current squad starting 2017 onwards is that there are a bunch of mid-30s contributors and solid 21-25 year olds, but nothing in between. That's why I'm skeptical of how effective a retool would be given the roster's age dichotomy.

 

p.s. let's not get too personal here with the accusations and assumptions. I'm enjoying the discussion and keen to read your opinions!

 

I just think you are over-estimating EE and Bautista... they were about 5 WAR this year... Good management should be able to fill the positions with at least 3 projected WAR.

 

In actuality everything is crazy random... so the real goal is to create a roster that is projected for mid to high 80s win total. There are lots of ways to do that without Bautista and EE.

[Terminator]

We have one of the better rotations in baseball and all 5 are back next year. I feel comfortable in saying that we will contend next season.

 

After that it's really hard to judge as a lot is up in the air. Bringing back Bautista and EE is scary. That'd be a lot of money tied up in older players. I don't want to turn in to the Phillies of the last 5 years.

[Dick_Pole]

My random thoughts after skimming through some comments in this thread:

 

If the Jays don't sign JB or EE and do nothing to replace them, the fan base will be pissed off. If the Jays drop those guys and do something smart to replace them, the fan base will be just fine. Just look at 1992 to 1993 as an example. Key, Henke and Winfield were out, all extremely popular players and big contributors to the team. Morris and Molitor in, and internal replacements for Henke fixed that all up.

 

The team being "oldest in the league" is a myth. Three contributors averaging 40 on the pitching staff whose contributions are small in the grand scheme of things. Two will be unlikely to return. The Jays pitching staff should be the envy in the league in terms of young and/or controllable talent in key positions. The star hitter is a late bloomer who is still around for two more years and likely nets a fortune in prospects should the team choose to go that route. Tulowitzki and Martin are the only two locks over 30 who will be here more than one year. So the Jays can get young really, really fast. I think this team can compete next year and several years after with some smart moves.

 

If you look around the AL, what teams are in a better spot than the Jays in the next 3-5 years? That's considering controllable talent in the MLB, minor league rankings and expected payroll flexibility. Yankees, Red Sox, Rangers, Astros, maybe the Indians. That places the Jays right in the mix. The biggest obstacle to contention is the fact that two of the good teams are in the Jays' division playing them 38 times combined. So we have to hope that the O's and Rays equally self-destruct to offset that.

[RealAccountant]

I just think you are over-estimating EE and Bautista... they were about 5 WAR this year... Good management should be able to fill the positions with at least 3 projected WAR.

 

In actuality everything is crazy random... so the real goal is to create a roster that is projected for mid to high 80s win total. There are lots of ways to do that without Bautista and EE.

 

But why are you focused on getting rid of them. 2 weeks ago you coukdbt wait for the Jays to lose the wildcard game.

 

If the Jays win the WS it will be all worth it.

 

From a marketing perspective winning isn't everything. People have to be emotionally tied to the baseball team. Look at Baltimore they had the same record yet half the crowds.

 

If we are resigning Jose and Edwin we should forget about 2019 onwards. It's almost irrelevant. We are signing them so that we can win a WS in 2017 or 2018 or both. After that we can rebuild

[Terminator]

And yeah the fans will be pissed off but if we win they'll get over it, especially if we replace those two with competent pieces. What if we signed Dexter Fowler to play RF and Carlos Beltran to DH? Those two would probably be cheaper and wouldn't be much of a dropoff, if any. If we started winning with those two the fans would still show up.

[Candide]

I just think you are over-estimating EE and Bautista... they were about 5 WAR this year... Good management should be able to fill the positions with at least 3 projected WAR.

 

In actuality everything is crazy random... so the real goal is to create a roster that is projected for mid to high 80s win total. There are lots of ways to do that without Bautista and EE.

 

I guess my question is, is it worth it though? If the AL East going to become that much tougher next season - getting 89 wins against the Red Sox, Yankees, Indians, and Tigers will become more difficult next season than what we saw this. Even with Jose/EE re-signed and Dickey off the books, I think the Jays will need to spend more to upgrade via the FA class to replicate a WC appearance in 2017, but this is just my opinion. I'd be happy with this avenue if the Jays retain Jose/EE or replace them with fair value via FA AND add more talent to compete.

 

Otherwise, if the Jays lose Bautista and EE, they'll get comp picks. I'm almost inclined to then take those picks and explore what else what I could get for Martin and Tulowitzki this winter while they still have some value. Both will become close to untradeable in Winter 2017 and beyond. Then after going this far, I'd also see what I could get for Donaldson, which would probably be a king's ransom. Fans will be pissed off losing Jose/EE anyway, so makes no difference if they get equal or better value for Martin, Tulowitzki, and Donaldson. Then keep the pitching intact until the trade deadline next year and look to deal guys like Cecil, Estrada, and Happ, especially if SRF is ready while keeping Liriano as a starter. Let guys like Stroman, Sanchez, Travis continue to develop mixed with a few veterans and have a good core of players in the mid-to-late 20s to compete in 2019 or 2020.

[Candide]

And yeah the fans will be pissed off but if we win they'll get over it, especially if we replace those two with competent pieces. What if we signed Dexter Fowler to play RF and Carlos Beltran to DH? Those two would probably be cheaper and wouldn't be much of a dropoff, if any. If we started winning with those two the fans would still show up.

 

is it fair to assume that Bautista, in an injury riddled season at 36, will continue to drop off the face of the earth while a soon to be 40 year old Carlos Beltran somehow won't?

[RealAccountant]

I still don't understand why people here are obsessed with saving Rogers money. Like it's a f***ing ripoff corporation and that bags every cent they can.

[jaysblue]

I'd rather the Jays lock up Donaldson to an extension and maybe trade for Joey Votto, if they let EE and JB walk.

 

Donaldson has been one of the best players in baseball the past 4 seasons. The later years of his contract might not be worth it, though if he could stay healthy and play like Adrian Beltre into his late 30's, that would be ideal and what you'd have to bank on.

 

Votto gives this lineup a left-handed middle-of-the-order bat who plays 1B. You could even bring back Bautista as a DH on a 1-year deal + option if he's looking to rebuild value.

[Plat]

I hope they just let Bats go but do everything in power to resign EE

[Dick_Pole]

I guess my question is, is it worth it though? If the AL East going to become that much tougher next season - getting 89 wins against the Red Sox, Yankees, Indians, and Tigers will become more difficult next season than what we saw this.

 

I don't really follow you. The Yankees aren't going to be that good next year. They are still transitioning and are likely a 78-85 win team in 2017. The Indians and Tigers aren't in the A.L. East (if we're talking about A.L. opponents, Texas and Houston are equally as big threats) and the Tigers are on the decline.

[jaysblue]

We have one of the better rotations in baseball and all 5 are back next year. I feel comfortable in saying that we will contend next season.

 

After that it's really hard to judge as a lot is up in the air. Bringing back Bautista and EE is scary. That'd be a lot of money tied up in older players. I don't want to turn in to the Phillies of the last 5 years.

 

Rotation should be fine like you said. Sanchez, Stroman, Happ, Estrada, Liriano is a very deep rotation. All they would have to focus on is maybe adding some depth behind them, in case someone gets injured.

 

I'd say bringing back EE could be scary, unless he runs off a David Ortiz type career into his late 30's. Though you don't want to tie in 25M per season to strictly an aging DH type player. Just look at Pujols with the Angels over the last several years. EE easily gets a 4 or 5 year deal, around 25M each season. Bautista on the other hand might take a one-year contract worth 15-18M to rebuild his value, and I'd have no problem bringing him back under those conditions as a DH.

[wamco]

Take the 2 picks and sign Desmond and Napoli to replace them

[Dick_Pole]

 

From a marketing perspective winning isn't everything. People have to be emotionally tied to the baseball team. Look at Baltimore they had the same record yet half the crowds.

 

I've been warned before not to engage in serious conversation with you but:

 

1. If you want to mention Baltimore's "half the crowd" status, you might want to dive a bit deeper like size of the city, economic status and location of the nearest competitor (Nationals) as mitigating factors.

2. Chris Davis and Adam Jones are easily EE and JB comparables in terms of fan affection.

[jaysblue]

I don't really follow you. The Yankees aren't going to be that good next year. They are still transitioning and are likely a 78-85 win team in 2017. The Indians and Tigers aren't in the A.L. East (if we're talking about A.L. opponents, Texas and Houston are equally as big threats) and the Tigers are on the decline.

 

The Tigers offensively are as good as anyone in baseball when healthy. It's a similar lineup to the Jays when you think of it (veterans, heavily right-handed power bats). Their pitching after Verlander & Fulmer isn't anything special and their bullpen isn't lights out. Still, they should be a threat in the AL Central next year.

[Terminator]

Rotation should be fine like you said. Sanchez, Stroman, Happ, Estrada, Liriano is a very deep rotation. All they would have to focus on is maybe adding some depth behind them, in case someone gets injured.

 

I'd say bringing back EE could be scary, unless he runs off a David Ortiz type career into his late 30's. Though you don't want to tie in 25M per season to strictly an aging DH type player. Just look at Pujols with the Angels over the last several years. EE easily gets a 4 or 5 year deal, around 25M each season. Bautista on the other hand might take a one-year contract worth 15-18M to rebuild his value, and I'd have no problem bringing him back under those conditions as a DH.

 

If Bautista would take a one or two year deal I'd bring him back for sure, I'd even be willing to go pretty high on the AAV. I agree with you on EE as well- 4 or 5 years might be what he gets and that's way too scary to me. I'd rather spend multiple years on a guy like Dexter Fowler who is younger and can play the field.

[fatcowxlive]

Sign Bautista to a 1 year $18M + option

Extend Donaldson

Sign Reddick

 

imo

[jaysblue]

Sign Bautista to a 1 year $18M + option

Extend Donaldson

Sign Reddick

 

imo

 

I'd rather trade for Ender Inciarte instead of signing Reddick.

[fatcowxlive]

I'd rather trade for Ender Inciarte instead of signing Reddick.

 

We don't have to do one or the other, we need 2 OFers. I didn't list Saunders for a reason lol

[Terminator]

Would anyone consider an Upton/Pompey platoon for one of our two OF openings?

[RealAccountant]

Same thing with Cleveland. 3rd last in crowds

People just don't understand the variables so they adopt a frame of reference they can understand

 

For example Baltimore and Cleveland are winning teams but they don't draw crowds due to economic factors. Never mind the cost to watch a game their is a third of Toronto.

 

Or its because Baltimore and Washington are close. Really that didn't stop Cardinals fans and Royals just won a f***ing championship.

 

Winning isn't everything when it comes to marketing. When people go to the ballpark they should associate the players with good feelings in the past. Anyone with a basic education in marketing knows that the key to selling is emotional association. If EE walks into Boston and hits 40+ homeruns ( a very real possibility ) it won't be a good feeling especially if our rotation takes a step back and we are a .500 team. People will flock out and the ratings will go back to half of what they used to be.

 

You know I don't even know why the same people who condemned AA and all of his moves are even watching the Jays right now. This is his team. People who criticized him heavily should just go watch the Mets oh wait.