Rangers vs Jays ALDS Discussion

[BTS]

lol yeah ok, I don't know how you guys think Texas is dominant at all, we're at the same level if not better than them

 

Who thinks they're dominant? Toronto has probably a 50-55% chance of winning. I was responding you using pythag as the basis for the opinion that the series should be an easy win.

[fatcowxlive]

Who thinks they're dominant? Toronto has probably a 50-55% chance of winning. I was responding you using pythag as the basis for the opinion that the series should be an easy win.

 

oh lol I wasn't using pythag for that, that was just my inner homer coming out

[BTS]

I mean, where are the holes here?

 

C - Lucroy

1B - Moreland

2B - Odor

3B - Beltre

SS - Andrus

CF - Desmond

RF - Choo

LF - Gomez

DH - Beltran

 

I see 2 superstars, 6 players that are average or better, and Mitch Moreland. I don't really understand how people think that lineup, with Hamels and Darvish staring probably 4 times out of 5, and Dyson, Jeffress, Bush, and Diekman in the back of the pen, is an easy matchup.

[HERPDERP]

Gomez scares me the most

[HERPDERP]

You know what would be great?

 

The pre-game festivities for game 3 include the entire 7th inning on replay of ALDS Game 5

 

Rangers will be forced to watch it.

[BigCecil]

Bulked up to step in to Bautista.

 

Odor hit 33HR, 14SB and all it's good for is a 106 wRC+ lol... He has the worst BB% in MLB @ 3.0%.

 

Like Alcides he hurt us in the playoffs last year. They were both ripping at every 1st pitch. They have to get him to chase off the plate.

[Governator]

Like Alcides he hurt us in the playoffs last year. They were both ripping at every 1st pitch. They have to get him to chase off the plate.

 

 

Good thing they've had plenty of practice doing that against Adam Jones.

[BigCecil]

Good thing they've had plenty of practice doing against Adam Jones.

 

They pitched him so well last night. He took that one single with 2 strikes to RF and was on for Trumbo HR, but they had him reaching for everything on the 1st pitch. He loves it.

[HERPDERP]

"Two Dallas Morning News staffers predicted the Orioles would beat the Jays in the sudden-death playoff game on Tuesday night.

 

Fraley noted the Orioles are “bullpen-rich” while Evan Grant thought the Jays would be sunk by a lack of hitting, a thin bullpen and personality flaws.

 

Grant reasoned: “Toronto's emotional bunch is liable to be frothing at the mouth and looking ahead to a Rangers rematch.”"

 

 

 

 

https://www.thestar.com/sports/bluejays/2016/10/05/how-texans-are-welcoming-the-blue-jays-to-bad-blood-series.html

[SweetSmellingChacin]

Being reported that Hamels goes in Game 1, Darvish in game 2.

[fatcowxlive]

I mean, where are the holes here?

 

C - Lucroy

1B - Moreland

2B - Odor

3B - Beltre

SS - Andrus

CF - Desmond

RF - Choo

LF - Gomez

DH - Beltran

 

I see 2 superstars, 6 players that are average or better, and Mitch Moreland. I don't really understand how people think that lineup, with Hamels and Darvish staring probably 4 times out of 5, and Dyson, Jeffress, Bush, and Diekman in the back of the pen, is an easy matchup.

 

C - Martin

1B - Edwin

2B - Travis

3B - Donaldson

SS - Tulo

CF - Pillar

RF - Bautista

LF - Zeke

DH - Saunders

 

fapfapfap our infield kills their infield bar none with the exception of catcher. Their outfield is better I won't lie they slightly better CFer and while I still like Bautista more than Gomez, Choo trumps all our OFers. Beltran in his second half since acquired by Texas has been steaming poo just like Saunders. Also Darvish > Sanchez but Stroman, Happ, and Estrada > Hamels. Pen is good but our starters should be winning the matchups except when facing Darvish, so 3/5 advantage blue jays

[fatcowxlive]

They pitched him so well last night. He took that one single with 2 strikes to RF and was on for Trumbo HR, but they had him reaching for everything on the 1st pitch. He loves it.

 

Dude that Grilli vs. Jones matchup lol first pitch swung on slightly down and outside pitch, second pitch even more outside he swung on, third pitch was even more outside and he checked his swing before throwing a fastball up and away and was overmatched

[BigBounceyBlueBalls]

The Question that needs to be asked,

 

What gets "Hit" first in Texas, a Player or the Ball ???

 

What do the Advance stats geeks and what are the Vegas odds saying???Lol

[King]

C - Martin

1B - Edwin

2B - Travis

3B - Donaldson

SS - Tulo

CF - Pillar

RF - Bautista

LF - Zeke

DH - Saunders

 

fapfapfap our infield kills their infield bar none with the exception of catcher. Their outfield is better I won't lie they slightly better CFer and while I still like Bautista more than Gomez, Choo trumps all our OFers. Beltran in his second half since acquired by Texas has been steaming poo just like Saunders. Also Darvish > Sanchez but Stroman, Happ, and Estrada > Hamels. Pen is good but our starters should be winning the matchups except when facing Darvish, so 3/5 advantage blue jays

 

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/sports/article25959395.ece/BINARY/w620/web-jays13sp6.JPG

[fatcowxlive]

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/sports/article25959395.ece/BINARY/w620/web-jays13sp6.JPG

 

You're damn right I'm high up on my team lol. But in all seriousness this is an evenly-matched-we-should-have-a-slight-edge series. Also in all seriousness I know Hamels is good but he put up a 3.85 xFIP and a 3.0 fWAR. Stroman pitched better than him this season and according to fWAR so has Happ and we know about Estrada and him being a FIP buster.... we should have the advantage starting in all but Darvish games so all but game 2 and game 5, which if we can score enough runs in games 1, 3 and 4 we should have the series before we see him a second time.

[Dick_Pole]

Why even bother looking this up? You're lumping in a team that has no Darvish, Lucroy, or Beltran with a team that has all 3 and more. Might as well be two completely different teams. Your sample is meaningless.

 

I was posting that in the context of the argument that Texas was bad against bad teams and good against good teams. They beat up Houston and Seattle real good. Slightly over .500 against the rest of the over .500 teams.

 

But while we are on this discussion, we have to consider that this is a Jays team without Goins and Dickey, who were both substantial features of this squad earlier in the year. No key injuries (Osuna knock on wood), got rid of Storen, brought in Liriano. So if the Rangers are bringing their best possible roster forward, vastly improved since these two teams last met, so are the Jays.

[Dick_Pole]

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/sports/article25959395.ece/BINARY/w620/web-jays13sp6.JPG

 

Nice selfie.

[ChrisS]

This will be a tough series but winnable. Since the start of the Seattle series (14 games) the Jays have allowed only 13 runs within the first 6 innings. (1.39 RA/9). If we can get that kind of starting pitching, get Osuna healthy and Liriano out of the pen, we can certainly do it.

[burlingtonbandit]

I like Estrada-Happ-Sanchez-Stroman if we're not going to double down on Sanchez. Keep them on fairly regular rest and you can go with the hot hand in game 5.

 

I'd rather go with the best possible pitcher. Can we not debunk the "hot hand" after the Stroman start and Jiminez blow up?

[LGBJ29]

Choo could still be rusty as all hell. He's played in 3 games since Aug 15 and went 2 for 12. He's never really gotten a chance to see live game pitching over a steady period heading into the playoffs

[STLJaysFan]

Imagine if Odor was an outfielder. They would definitely need extra security at the Rogers Centre then!!

[jaysfan2014]

I don't really care what their pythag is, that's not a team anyone can expect to 'handle easily'. Their run differential was hurt by a lot of things:

 

- Fielder playing most of the season with a bad neck

- Choo being out most of the year

- Darvish being out most of the year

- Lewis, Holland, Perez, Griffin et all gas canning it up

 

Now Fielder is gone, Choo and Darvish are back, and only one gas can will likely pitch in the series. Also, they've added Lucroy, Belltran, Gomez, and Jeffress. They're going to throw all star caliber starters out there in 4 of 5 games, and the only weak spot in their lineup is 1B: they're at least average in the other 8 spots.

 

Looking at their pythag and determining that they should be easy to beat is really, really lazy.

 

Actually, the defense outside of Beltre isn't so good--towards the bottom of the league in most errors--Odor especially is a butcher at 2B (22 errors) and Andrus as well (17--though that's at a position which is high in errors) and Desmond (12 errors in the OF!). Odor was the WORST defensive 2B in baseball this year--10 more errors than the 2nd most (Kipnis). And Desmond was also the worst defensive CF as well.. commiting 9 errors in CF (along with his 3 in LF), most in the AL. Even rookie Nomar Mazara had negative metrics in both LF and RF.

[jaysfan2014]

Imagine if Odor was an outfielder. They would definitely need extra security at the Rogers Centre then!!

 

Which is likely where he's headed in the long term.. 22 errors at 2B and negative metrics at 2B show he needs to be moved to another position, preferably the OF..

[BTS]

Actually, the defense outside of Beltre isn't so good--towards the bottom of the league in most errors--Odor especially is a butcher at 2B (22 errors) and Andrus as well (17--though that's at a position which is high in errors) and Desmond (12 errors in the OF!). Odor was the WORST defensive 2B in baseball this year--10 more errors than the 2nd most (Kipnis). And Desmond was also the worst defensive CF as well.. commiting 9 errors in CF (along with his 3 in LF), most in the AL. Even rookie Nomar Mazara had negative metrics in both LF and RF.

 

Don't forget that the Blue Jays led the league in errors committed on Sunday afternoons on the West Coast, so their defense is in serious trouble this series.

[eastcoastjaysfan]

I feel like the Rangers might be hugely underrated because of their s***** run differential. They went through a stretch in early July where they were getting massacred by like 10 runs a game and that heavily skewed the total numbers.

 

Deep lineup, deep power bullpen. Their rotation is a bit thin (Hamels has been s*** the last month) but still talented. This is going to be tougher than last year.

[Terminator]

I often see the argument that they aren't the same team because of the moves at the deadline and that the +8 RD doesn't factor that in. But on July 31 they had a RD of +9. The rest of the season they played -1 ball and ended up +8.

 

I don't really know why that is, i.e. was someone hurt during that period, etc. But after the trade deadline they were even worse than before. I don't even know if this means anything. But it's not like they were a -40 team, made those trades, and then suddenly played like the 95 win team the rest of the season. They've struggled with run differential all season.

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/games/standings.cgi?year=2016&month=7&day=31&submit=Submit+Date

[fatcowxlive]

I often see the argument that they aren't the same team because of the moves at the deadline and that the +8 RD doesn't factor that in. But on July 31 they had a RD of +9. The rest of the season they played -1 ball and ended up with +8.

 

I don't really know much of why that is, i.e. was someone hurt during that period, etc. But after the trade deadline they were even worse than before. I don't even know if this means anything. But it's not like they were a -40 team, made those trades, and then suddenly played like the 95 win team that they ended up as. They've struggled with run differential all season.

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/games/standings.cgi?year=2016&month=7&day=31&submit=Submit+Date

 

Their RD from August to the end of the season (basically after eliminating Fielder, adding Darvish and Choo and all their deadline adds right?) is +1

[Terminator]

Their RD from August to the end of the season (basically after eliminating Fielder, adding Darvish and Choo and all their deadline adds right?) is +1

 

Ok I thought it was -1. Well whatever my point still stands. The RD was worse after the trade deadline for whatever reason.

[BTS]

I often see the argument that they aren't the same team because of the moves at the deadline and that the +8 RD doesn't factor that in. But on July 31 they had a RD of +9. The rest of the season they played -1 ball and ended up +8.

 

I don't really know why that is, i.e. was someone hurt during that period, etc. But after the trade deadline they were even worse than before. I don't even know if this means anything. But it's not like they were a -40 team, made those trades, and then suddenly played like the 95 win team the rest of the season. They've struggled with run differential all season.

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/games/standings.cgi?year=2016&month=7&day=31&submit=Submit+Date

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=sta&lg=all&qual=0&type=8&season=2016&month=31&season1=2016&ind=0&team=13&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0

 

Their biggest problem has been their most obvious problem: their rotation after Hamels and Darvish is a tire fire. They started complete gas cans in more than 60% of their 2nd half starts. I think this would get them in a 7-game series, but they can pretty much hide their biggest weakness in a 5-gamer.

[jaysfan2014]

Ok I thought it was -1. Well whatever my point still stands. The RD was worse after the trade deadline for whatever reason.

 

They failed to add a decent starter at the deadline (Harrell got injured), Holland turned into crap, Martin Perez was bad most of the season, AJ Griffin stunk after the All-Star Break Colby Lewis has been mostly awful since returning from injury, Hamels has struggled recently, and having one of the league's worst defenses (except at 3B) doesn't help.