Jeff Sullivan: Aaron Sanchez is looking like an ace

[nmrch]

They do happen, though, and often enough that optimism isn’t unwarranted. The Blue Jays wanted to see if Sanchez would find a way to more consistently own the zone. With strikes, Sanchez would have significant upside. The Jays went for it, and, wouldn’t you know it, but Sanchez has been utterly fantastic. Last year’s starting experiment is now a distant memory, as Sanchez is in the process of establishing himself as one of the more electric young starters in the league.

 

A strike rate of 58% is unworkable. That’s exactly why I wasn’t a big Sanchez believer. But a strike rate of 64% is perfectly average, and then you get to blend in how difficult Sanchez is to square up. All he needs is that league-average strike rate. The rest of the stuff is good enough for him to take off from there.

I’ve saved the most exciting thing for last. Sanchez, of course, has generated all those grounders. Even as a starter, he’s still thrown 74% fastballs. And he has a 68 FIP-, which is right in line with his ERA and xFIP. As a little experiment, I gathered all starter-seasons since 2002 with at least 50 innings. Then I ran some easy math to identify the most similar seasons to Sanchez’s 2016, based on grounders, fastball rate, and FIP-. The top five most similar campaigns:

 

2007 Brandon Webb

2003 Kevin Brown

2005 Roy Halladay

2003 Brandon Webb

2004 Tim Hudson

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/aaron-sanchez-is-looking-like-an-ace/

 

Thought the article deserves its own thread, Sullivan to me is the best analyst out there

[Spanky99]

Sullivan is an analyst, or a blogger? He's tossed out some pretty honourable comps/names.

[FrozenRopes]

Sullivan is an analyst, or a blogger?

 

Hardly either...

[Spanky99]

Hardly either...

 

Well, I was "HARDLY" looking for your opinion... no offence, hockey guy.

[Spanky99]

Well, I was "HARDLY" looking for your opinion... no offence, hockey guy.

 

Meh, it was posted in the Jays discussion thread, and nobody's biting. These comps are insane, IMO... unless it relates to his next 5 starts.

[nmrch]

Sullivan is an analyst, or a blogger? He's tossed out some pretty honourable comps/names.

 

I don't know why you can't be both, by analyst i simply meant a data and analytics based writer whose work i most respect.

[Spanky99]

I don't know why you can't be both, by analyst i simply meant a data and analytics based writer whose work i most respect.

 

Good point, but I just don't see much substance from Sullivan as to say Kiley, Cistulli, Farnsworth, etc...

 

I do get your point.

[John_Havok]

Decent article but he left out a good chunk of info, like his improved swinging strike metrics, which really tell the bigger story of his improvements rather than just saying he's throwing more strikes.

 

He's throwing more strikes, getting more swings and misses in the zone, and on top of that is allowing a ton of weak contact.

[admin]

How much has twelve starts changed your opinion on Sanchez?

[Atothe]

Good point, but I just don't see much substance from Sullivan as to say Kiley, Cistulli, Farnsworth, etc...

 

I do get your point.

 

I actually love Sullivan more than those guys. He's the Zach Lowe of baseball

[burlingtonbandit]

His curveball has really become a huge weapon. Especially vs Lefties as he can throw it down and in to get swing and misses.

[THANOS]

I'm curious to see if Tuesday's start ends up being the outlier stand out performance, or if it was, perhaps, a breakout performance to start a new run of dominance.

 

If he's finally got his release point and the snap on the curve just right, imagine if he begins linking a streak of >9 K/9 <2 BB/9 starts together?

[John_Havok]

Sanchez for the All star game?

[burlingtonbandit]

Sanchez for the All star game?

 

At this point he definitely deserves to make the team. Although I'm sure the team hopes he doesn't go to rest his arm.

[Jimcanuck]

At this point he definitely deserves to make the team. Although I'm sure the team hopes he doesn't go to rest his arm.

 

Yes, he does, although name guys with inferior stats like Price will be selected over him

[THANOS]

Yes, he does, although name guys with inferior stats like Price will be selected over him

 

I don't know. Price's "ERA" will probably scare away the selection team lol.

[Spanky99]

lol

[Jimcanuck]

I don't know. Price's "ERA" will probably scare away the selection team lol.

 

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