How much has one start changed your opinion on Aaron Sanchez?

[Laika]

I have to almost hope that he sucks so that all of you vacuous message board snowflakes aren't illegitimately and insufferably vindicated.

[Jimcanuck]

I have to almost hope that he sucks so that all of you vacuous message board snowflakes aren't illegitimately and insufferably vindicated.

 

You're just scared you gonna be on the wrong side of history. Justifiably.

[Boxcar]

You're just scared you gonna be on the wrong side of history. Justifiably.

 

Jim, I don't think anyone is under the illusion that you're intelligent so you being right about an unforeseeable outcome and bragging about it like the moron you are is the same as winning the powerball lottery and acting like you knew what the correct numbers were the entire time.

[Factz]

Why the hell do you idiots have to make it so hard to just cheer for Sanchez? Ugh.

 

Irony

[Jimcanuck]

Jim, I don't think anyone is under the illusion that you're intelligent so you being right about an unforeseeable outcome and bragging about it like the moron you are is the same as winning the powerball lottery and acting like you knew what the correct numbers were the entire time.

 

Boxy right on cue with the personal insults. It's all he knows.

[GD]

They did use the statistic in positively analyzing the JA Happ signing this past offseason (compared to guys like Leake, Samardzija, Cueto). One of the takeaways they uncovered is that Happ is one of the rare pitcher's who's "stuff" has actually improved with age. So far this season, his "stuff" is actually even better than it was a year ago which may indeed be a sign for further positive expectation from him. He actually ranks second behind Sanchez to date.

 

http://www.mikesonne.ca/baseball/let-it-happ-en/

 

That isn't what I meant. They haven't shown a relationship between xFIP/SIERA/etc. They just mentioned it off hand. Or maybe they have and it's not in any of these articles.

[Brownie19]

I don't know if I can agree with this. I'm sure I missed some literature on this, but what exactly is WRONG with called strikeouts? I realize its leaving the call in the umps hand but if your so nasty the batter won't even offer at the pitch isn't that better then him swinging and having the potential for a hit? No swing = no hit?

 

I can't help but think about all the called strikes that Maddux and Glavine used to get. Great childhood memories. Maddux was the best.

[Brownie19]

He needs better fastball command for the change up to work. If hitters have to respect him throwing 2 straight fastballs for a called strike every at-bat then they will have to take the bat off their shoulders and hunt fastball. At that point the change works.

 

The Rays are the most aggressive team in baseball. They didn't even care about his command, they were chasing fastball right from the first pitch.

 

NYY and BOS go up there to take. Change falls off the table and they don't care. Very few NYY and BOS hitters swung on first pitch, maybe the LHB and Bogaerts.

 

Sanchez has almost the lowest swing% in MLB because hitters would rather take their chances on walking then lifting the fastball off the ground. Once he shows he can get to 0-2 consistently then the swing% will go up. Once it goes up the change up will work.

 

I think this is bang on and I think the Jays knew it and game planned accordingly. It will be very interesting to see the pitch sequencing vs. another aggressive team.

[Angrioter]

I can't help but think about all the called strikes that Maddux and Glavine used to get. Great childhood memories. Maddux was the best.

 

Ping pong command. Sanchez strikes are in the middle of the plate

[Brownie19]

Ping pong command. Sanchez strikes are in the middle of the plate

 

Let's be clear...not comparing at all. Just makes me remember all those come back fastball's and perfect pitches made on the outside corner. It was a god damn pleasure watching the Braves in the 90's.

[Brownie19]

Can someone explain why Dylan Bundy is out of options? Is it because the O's brought him up for 1 2/3 innings in 2012? (ie, the only year he played in the majors before this year).

[Laika]

Can someone explain why Dylan Bundy is out of options? Is it because the O's brought him up for 1 2/3 innings in 2012? (ie, the only year he played in the majors before this year).

 

I think it's because he signed a major league deal after being drafted, which is no longer allowed.

[Angrioter]

Can someone explain why Dylan Bundy is out of options? Is it because the O's brought him up for 1 2/3 innings in 2012? (ie, the only year he played in the majors before this year).

 

Bundy, Pedro Alvarez, Bryce Harper, Strasburg MLB deals

[Laika]

This is basically what Sanchez looked like in game 1 vs TB: http://m.mlb.com/video/v602680483/wshmia-strasburg-strikes-out-10-in-eight-scoreless

 

Changeup didn't have that much drop

[Olerud363]

2 things:

 

1. predictive stats don't work for all pitchers.... if you think they do, you don't understand stats fundamentals

 

2. same people that are Sanchez skeptics were calling Hutch the best SP for most of last season based on peripherals

 

Stats work based on "features", or characteristics of the phenomena you are measuring. So you say the traditional stats don't work for Sanchez.

 

OK. How do you know predictive stats don't work for Sanchez?? Well you say "It didn't work for Carpenter and Sanchez is like Carpenter"

 

OK. How is Sanchez like Carpenter?? Well you say "he is tall and throws such and such pitches"

 

OK. Fine. Express that to the guys you are arguing with and make them rebut. They will say

 

1. "No there are many pitchers like Carpenter (show some fancy fangraphs s***) and only a small percentage had success.

 

or...

 

2. No, Sanchez actually is not like Carpenter (show some fancy fangraphs s***)

 

or...

 

3. By God Jim you are right.

[Jimcanuck]

Stats work based on "features", or characteristics of the phenomena you are measuring. So you say the traditional stats don't work for Sanchez.

 

OK. How do you know predictive stats don't work for Sanchez?? Well you say "It didn't work for Carpenter and Sanchez is like Carpenter"

 

OK. How is Sanchez like Carpenter?? Well you say "he is tall and throws such and such pitches"

 

OK. Fine. Express that to the guys you are arguing with and make them rebut. They will say

 

1. "No there are many pitchers like Carpenter (show some fancy fangraphs s***) and only a small percentage had success.

 

or...

 

2. No, Sanchez actually is not like Carpenter (show some fancy fangraphs s***)

 

or...

 

3. By God Jim you are right.

 

I didnt say any of those things.

 

There is a 6.7% chance an average pitcher has a K rate or BB rate or whatever that is 1.5 standard deviations lower or higher, respectively, from the mean. Sanchez could have a 6K/9 and 4 BB/9 and be an average pitcher. I'm not saying this is the case here. I'm saying to point to his K rate or BB rate or whatever and state with certainty he's an SP5 or whatever betrays a lack of understanding of stats fundamentals. Stats are great for trends and as an indicator, they suck when used to predict the results of an individual member of the statistical population.

[Olerud363]

I didnt say any of those things.

 

There is a 6.7% chance an average pitcher has a K rate or BB rate or whatever that is 1.5 standard deviations lower or higher, respectively, from the mean. Sanchez could have a 6K/9 and 4 BB/9 and be an average pitcher. I'm not saying this is the case here. I'm saying to point to his K rate or BB rate or whatever and state with certainty he's an SP5 or whatever betrays a lack of understanding of stats fundamentals. Stats are great for trends and as an indicator, they suck when used to predict the results of an individual member of the statistical population.

 

I agree that no one can say with certainty that Sanchez will be an average pitcher. On the other hand there is no reason to think he will be better then his "group".

 

If you want to argue he will be better then his group, then explain why... that knowledge itself will redefine his group. (assuming other haven't thought of it)

[Jimcanuck]

I agree that no one can say with certainty that Sanchez will be an average pitcher. On the other hand there is no reason to think he will be better then his "group".

 

If you want to argue he will be better then his group, then explain why... that knowledge itself will redefine his group. (assuming other haven't thought of it)

 

Where have I ever said this? I'm only pointing out the statistical possibility.

[Cyborg]

I didnt say any of those things.

 

There is a 6.7% chance an average pitcher has a K rate or BB rate or whatever that is 1.5 standard deviations lower or higher, respectively, from the mean. Sanchez could have a 6K/9 and 4 BB/9 and be an average pitcher. I'm not saying this is the case here. I'm saying to point to his K rate or BB rate or whatever and state with certainty he's an SP5 or whatever betrays a lack of understanding of stats fundamentals. Stats are great for trends and as an indicator, they suck when used to predict the results of an individual member of the statistical population.

That's not how this works. That's not how any of this works.

[admin]

I've always like Sanchez, though I admit I'm a bit of a homer, but I've always had faith in him.

He had some absolutely dominating minor league stats, but had issues with control.

I know some of his major league stats say otherwise, but I think he's going to be a very good pitcher.

[Laika]

I've always like Sanchez, though I admit I'm a bit of a homer, but I've always had faith in him.

He had some absolutely dominating minor league stats, but had issues with control.

I know some of his major league stats say otherwise, but I think he's going to be a very good pitcher.

 

No he didn't

[Tester]

Sanchez curveball is looking fairly nasty, didn't really see that when he was pitching in relief.

[Cyborg]

His MLB stats are better than his minor league.

[Tester]

His MLB stats are better than his minor league.

 

A lot of this is because most of his innings in the majors are as a reliever (not saying he can't be better as a starter though).

[Angrioter]

A lot of this is because most of his innings in the majors are as a reliever (not saying he can't be better as a starter though).

 

Sanchez's performance is a f***ing unicorn. The kid is pitching like s***, but good results. He deserve his owm metrics. #WeakContactsForDays

[Laika]

Sanchez's performance is a f***ing unicorn. The kid is pitching like s***, but good results. He deserve his owm metrics. #WeakContactsForDays

 

I don't think it's fair to go THAT far.

[Angrioter]

I don't think it's fair to go THAT far.

 

3.80 to 4.00 talent-ERA last to starts, but that 1.35 ERA

[Dr. Dinger]

His MLB stats are better than his minor league.

 

That's not totally unexpected with a "suddenly clicks" pitcher. Sanchez isn't nearly as raw as he was for most of his minor league career. Besides, it wouldn't take much at all to be better than his minor league numbers.

[Tester]

Sanchez's performance is a f***ing unicorn. The kid is pitching like s***, but good results. He deserve his owm metrics. #WeakContactsForDays

 

9K /9 ? 3.15 BB/9... 60% GB seems good to me??!!

[Tester]

That's not totally unexpected with a "suddenly clicks" pitcher. Sanchez isn't nearly as raw as he was for most of his minor league career. Besides, it wouldn't take much at all to be better than his minor league numbers.

 

4.26 xFIP as a starter

3.15 xFIP as a reliever