How much has one start changed your opinion on Aaron Sanchez?

[Laika]

One start is just that - one start. Must of us are well versed in the concept of a meaningful sample size. Yet it's still hard to shake the notion that we saw Aaron Sanchez emerge from a cocoon of frustrating inhibitions and sprout his wings as a beautiful SP butterfly this week.

 

How much has your opinion of him changed after that one start?

Below, I've ranked 60 2016 prospects and 2015 rookies. These are my arbitrary rankings that I threw together in five minutes. I made no effort to include every notable player. I tried to only include players with SP potential.

 

Where would you have placed Sanchez in this list one week (or one month) ago, and where do you rank him now?

1 .-. Syndergaard

2 .-. Giolito

3 .-. Urias

4 .-. Glasnow

5 .-. Rodon

6 .-. Reyes

7 .-. Matz

8 .-. McCullers

9 .-. Iglesias

10 .-. Severino

11 .-. Snell

12 .-. De Leon

13 .-. Berrios

14 .-. Anderson Espinoza

15 .-. Hader

16 .-. Ed. Rodriguez

17 .-. DeSclafani

18 .-. Joe Ross

19 .-. Gray

20 .-. Hoffman

21 .-. Manaea

22 .-. Newcomb

23 .-. Nola

24 .-. V. Velasquez

25 .-. Norris

26 .-. Carson Fulmer

27 .-. Honeywell

28 .-. Reynaldo Lopez

29 .-. Karns

30 .-. Heston

31 .-. Heaney

32 .-. Lamb

33 .-. Taillon

34 .-. Kopech

35 .-. Holmes

36 .-. Finnegan

37 .-. Greene

38 .-. H. Harvey

39 .-. Stephenson

40 .-. Bradley

41 .-. A. Conley

42 .-. J. Thompson

43 .-. Beede

44 .-. T. Duffey

45 .-. Foltynewicz

46 .-. Bassitt

47 .-. Tropeano

48 .-. H. Owens

49 .-. K. Graveman

50 .-. C. Anderson

51 .-. J. Eickhoff

52 .-. Boyd

53 .-. Lorenzen

54 .-. Chi Chi Gonzalez

55 .-. Wisler

56 .-. Eddie Butler

57 .-. M. Montgomery

58 .-. Mark Appel

59 .-. Nicolino

60 .-. Buck Farmer

Edited April 7, 2016 by Laika

[Dr. Dinger]

You're too low on McCullers and too high on Hader. I'd put Sanchez probably in the 20-30 range.

[ValiantJaysFan]

Yeah I don't agree with how this list is ordered but I guess I'd put Sanchez around 18 or 19.

[Cyborg]

Youre too high on Appel.

[L54]

Too high on Hader I agree. At first glance, I'd put him between Karns and Heston.

[Dr. Dinger]

Tough to put Snell and De Leon ahead of McCullers when Lance has actually shoved it in the majors for a decent sample. Severino too.

[Angrioter]

s*** list bro.

 

16 .-. Carlos Rodon

30 .-. Aaron Sanchez

[Angrioter]

What about 36 -Finnegan performance last night?

36 to 10 in the list?

[Laika]

I disagree largely with the Hader opinions. Agree on McCullers. Edited list.

[Dr. Dinger]

Looks good, although I'd probably move Glasnow, Reyes and DeSclafani each down a few pegs. Descla in particular I don't believe will be more than an SP4, maybe SP3. I like Nola better.

[The Cats Ass]

I think you have to stick him in the top 5. If not the #1 spot. There's a reason we chose to keep Sanchez over Syndergaard.

[Laika]

Before the start I probably had him in the 45-50 range of this list. Considered him very similarly to Folty. I probably had Sanchez over Cody Anderson, but might have taken Graveman over Sanchez.

[X_X]

His stuff still looks unimpressive. I see a guy who throws hard and is starting to control the ball better.

[L54]

wat

[Boxcar]

I disagree largely with the Hader opinions. Agree on McCullers. Edited list.

 

Your list is bad and you should feel bad

[Laika]

Your list is bad and you should feel bad

 

I actually think it's the best possible ranking of these 60 names that anyone on this board could do, in any amount of time. So I feel great.

[Boxcar]

Where to even start, Nola too low, Rodon way too high, Glasnow too high, Lamb too low, Eickoff too low, Greene too high and idk if you know this but Espinoza is like 18.

 

If you want to give it another try, I'll allow it.

[Dr. Dinger]

Where to even start, Nola too low, Rodon way too high, Glasnow too high, Lamb too low, Eickoff too low, Greene too high and idk if you know this but Espinoza is like 18.

 

If you want to give it another try, I'll allow it.

 

r u dum? Rodon has a 2.91 xFIP and 12% SwStr this season. That's 2015 deGrom/Kluber/Bumgarner level, FYI. We are seeing an ace emerge before our eyes.

[Laika]

Where to even start, Nola too low, Rodon way too high, Glasnow too high, Lamb too low, Eickoff too low, Greene too high and idk if you know this but Espinoza is like 18.

 

If you want to give it another try, I'll allow it.

 

Inverted alphabet; slider of doom; Ace of Aces upside; appropriately placed given past issues; f*** Eickhoff and all of his fanboys; appropriately placed because handsome and the hype is real; age is just a number.

 

rebutted

[Dr. Dinger]

Eickhoff is nothing but a hilarious North campaign that will end in obscurity.

[Laika]

To be the only one to answer my actual question...

 

Before: #45 above Folty

Now: #37 above Greene

 

Hard for me to move him any higher than that. I guess #36 would be easy.

[Spanky99]

Too high on Hader I agree. At first glance, I'd put him between Karns and Heston.

 

Same. I was thinking right between Heston and Heaney, also, this would be my ranking after seeing him through the spring and his last start. If I hadn't seen his results through spring he'd be further back.

[Spanky99]

His stuff still looks unimpressive. I see a guy who throws hard and is starting to control the ball better.

 

I'm assuming you missed his start?

[John_Havok]

Am I the only one that read J. Eickhoff as "jackoff?"

[Boxcar]

I might slot him in at 25, between Norris and Vince. I can't get over a couple things.

 

It would be fine to write this off as one start where the Rays were just exceptionally s***** but:

 

- where did this change come from?

- Mark Shapiro/Ross Atkins - dunno what they personally had to do with it but I can imagine a culture where pitching to contact was encouraged. I actually heard the Marlins announcers yesterday complaining that Fernandez strikes out too many guys and he needs to pitch to contact. That line of thinking still exists. These guys oversaw the creation of Kluber, Salazar, Carrasco.

- held his velocity

- whiffs on his fastball and he was throwing it up. Woo hoo!

- working with a 2 plane curve now and it seems a lot better than the 12-6.

 

There are a few guys behind him that I'd still have ahead of him but I have to work in the confines of your s***** list so take that for what it's worth.

[Laika]

I might slot him in at 25, between Norris and Vince. I can't get over a couple things.

 

It would be fine to write this off as one start where the Rays were just exceptionally s***** but:

 

- where did this change come from?

- Mark Shapiro/Ross Atkins - dunno what they personally had to do with it but I can imagine a culture where pitching to contact was encouraged. I actually heard the Marlins announcers yesterday complaining that Fernandez strikes out too many guys and he needs to pitch to contact. That line of thinking still exists. These guys oversaw the creation of Kluber, Salazar, Carrasco.

- held his velocity

- whiffs on his fastball and he was throwing it up. Woo hoo!

- working with a 2 plane curve now and it seems a lot better than the 12-6.

 

There are a few guys behind him that I'd still have ahead of him but I have to work in the confines of your s***** list so take that for what it's worth.

 

Where did you have him ranked before the start?

 

Who are the guys past 25 that you would still take over him?

 

I think this is such an interesting case of parsing small sample size / scouting information.

[Angrioter]

Nola last night.

7IP, 8 K's with 89 mph fastball.

[GD]

Before: Mid-Late 20's

Now: Early 20's

[Dr. Dinger]

Where did you have him ranked before the start?

 

Who are the guys past 25 that you would still take over him?

 

I think this is such an interesting case of parsing small sample size / scouting information.

 

Results don't matter in a small sample, but when you demonstrate a skill, like a plus changeup, or a plus curveball, you then own that attribute. The changeup we saw was a game-changer, and if he can bring that on a regular basis it definitely warrants a reconsideration of his overall ceiling.

[Laika]

Results don't matter in a small sample, but when you demonstrate a skill, like a plus changeup, or a plus curveball, you then own that attribute. The changeup we saw was a game-changer, and if he can bring that on a regular basis it definitely warrants a reconsideration of his overall ceiling.

 

He basically came into this appearance with three new weapons. A four seamer that he's willing to throw up in the zone and for whiffs, an actual changeup, and a better breaking ball.