Pretty good article on roster management from Jason Martinez of ESPN

[Terminator]

I thought this one was a pretty good read as we often criticized AA for not building any depth. This article explains some pretty good ways to manage a roster.

 

http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/insider/story/_/id/14668192/were-managing-major-league-roster

 

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#MLBFrontOffice: If I were managing a major league roster ...

Jason Martinez

Special to ESPN.com

 

After years of tracking how MLB general managers utilize and tweak their 25-man big league rosters as the founder of MLBDepthCharts.com and now RosterResource.com, Jason Martinez now gets the opportunity to be his own GM and lay out some of what he has learned. He passes along some of the tools of the trade and how HE would manage a big league roster throughout the course of a season.

 

One of the most underrated aspects of finishing MLB's 162-game marathon with a playoff berth is the contribution of those players who didn't start the season in a significant role and, in many cases, weren't even expected to reach the majors.

 

Once spring training arrives and in the weeks that follow, we will be reminded again and again that while baseball isn't a true contact or collision sport, injuries do happen. Even by mid-March, several players will be questionable for Opening Day with muscle strains, and many of them are placed on the disabled list for the first few weeks of the season. Others won't be so lucky. The Tommy John surgery epidemic, which normally knocks a pitcher out of action anywhere from 12-18 months, is sure to continue to wreak havoc on major league pitching staffs. By the end of April 2015, a dozen MLB players (11 pitchers, 1 catcher) who had been seemingly healthy heading into spring training were recovering from season-ending Tommy John surgery. Several others would join them by season's end.

 

So why do we scratch our heads in disbelief when a team like the Dodgers fills out their roster with pitching to the point that a proven MLB starting pitcher like Alex Wood could possibly begin the season at Triple-A?

 

Well, because we tend to think of an MLB roster as having just 25 players, with room for only five starting pitchers. The fact that at least one of those starting pitchers will probably miss time with an injury and at least one other will pitch poorly enough to be removed from the rotation can get lost on us. But it's rare for a team to go through a season in which both of those scenarios do not occur.

 

Let's look at 2015 as an example:

 

How many teams used only five starting pitchers? None.

 

How about six starting pitchers? None.

 

Seven? If only a team could be that lucky; again the answer is zero.

 

Two teams, the Pittsburgh Pirates and Baltimore Orioles, used "only" eight starting pitchers. The Los Angeles Dodgers topped the list with 16, while the Cincinnati Reds and Philadelphia Phillies each used 14 different starting pitchers.

 

On average, an MLB team used 11 different starting pitchers during the regular season in 2015. While the bottom six of that group accounted for only 22 percent of a team's starts as opposed to 78 percent for the top five, that's still 36 starts made by an assortment of pitchers that most people didn't expect to see at all.

 

And how many relievers does it take to get through the season? It's hard enough to find seven reliable ones, but try finding three times that amount. That's right, on average, teams used 21 different relief pitchers during the 2015 season, with the bottom 14 accounting for 135 relief appearances.

 

While losing position players for more than a 15- to 30-day period is much less likely than it is for pitchers, teams still used an average of 23 position players in 2015, with the bottom 10 players logging an average of 554 at-bats. So we're talking about many players each season who couldn't crack a starting lineup at Triple-A to begin the season reaching the major league club at some point.

 

I present these averages (36 starts, 135 relief appearances and 554 at-bats) only to give you a general idea of how much a team's "depth" can be expected to cover. It could be much more or less depending on injuries and the level of impact an injured or underperforming player was expected to have on a team. So with that in mind, here are my keys to building a team that can endure all of the bumps, bruises, twists and turns of a major league season:

 

1. Always have an innings-eater -- or three

 

The primary focus of this story is to stress the necessity of having good depth beyond the "go-to" 25-man roster, but the reality is you don't want these guys picking up too many innings or at-bats. After all, there's probably a reason they didn't make the Opening Day roster.

 

As such, targeting starting pitchers who are proven innings-eaters for the back end of your rotation, even if they're not top-of-a-rotation caliber, can pay off in a big way. The "steady yet unspectacular" starter will also be much more affordable.

 

The Kansas City Royals and general manager Dayton Moore have taken this route in back-to-back seasons. Jeremy Guthrie (202 2/3 IP, 4.13 ERA, $8 million salary) and Jason Vargas (187 IP, 3.71 ERA, $7M salary) played major roles in helping the 2014 team to their first playoff berth in 19 seasons.

 

In 2015, with Guthrie having his worst season, Vargas lost to Tommy John surgery and youngster Yordano Ventura struggling with consistency, it was Edinson Volquez (200 1/3 IP, 3.55 ERA, $7.5M) to the rescue. His signing last offseason was heavily criticized at the time, but proved to be one of the savviest moves of the entire offseason.

 

Even if Mark Buehrle is sticking with his "St. Louis Cardinals or retirement" plan, there are plenty of guys out there who are a pretty good bet to give you close to 200 innings and come at a reasonable rate.

 

While the price is rising for this type of pitcher, the Cubs didn't exactly break the bank for John Lackey at two years and $32 million. Neither did the Rangers to bring back Colby Lewis at one year and $6 million. And there's a good chance that each team will get 200 solid innings for their investment.

 

The Blue Jays spent a total of $62 million to lock up Marco Estrada and J.A. Happ over the next two and three years, respectively. My guess is that they will give the Jays about 325 quality innings in 2016. If that were to happen and the Jays return to the playoffs, signing that duo for less than the cost of Wei-Yin Chen, Ian Kennedy or Mike Leake could be the savvy move we're talking about next offseason.

 

Yovani Gallardo, who has seven consecutive seasons with at least 30 starts, is still available on the free-agent market. With his K/9 rate having dropped in three consecutive seasons, his price tag could also be much lower than expected, making him a bargain if he can be had on a shorter team deal of $12-14 million per season.

 

And what about this year's version of Volquez? Look no further than Mat Latos, who had a 3.27 ERA while averaging 32 starts and 200 innings for the Padres and Reds from 2010-2013. He'll be cheap and motivated after a disastrous 2015 season.

 

Take lots and lots of flyers

 

When a team "takes a flyer" on a player whose value has plummeted to the point his only option is to sign a minor league deal, there's almost no risk involved.

 

Claiming a player off waivers who has been designated for assignment, assuming that player doesn't have a big salary, also involves no risk.

 

Now, these rarely result in much success, but if things break right, they'll give a team a few good weeks and help it win a game or two. The more of these low-risk acquisitions a team makes, the better the chances of one paying off.

 

You know who the master of this is -- or rather was: former Blue Jays general manager Alex Anthopoulos. Of course, he also placed a lot of players on waivers. But he was always tweaking/upgrading his organizational depth, which I support fully. Here's his strategy:

 

Place a claim on just about every player who comes across the waiver wire.

 

If awarded a waiver claim, clear a spot by designating another player on the 40-man roster for assignment.

 

If that designated player makes it through waivers unclaimed, most players can be "outrighted" to the minors. That player now becomes valuable roster depth while no longer taking up a spot on the 40-man roster.

 

This was the path that Chris Colabello took to becoming a major part of the Blue Jays' powerful offense last season. He was claimed off waivers from the Twins in December and designated for assignment in February. After passing through waivers unclaimed, he was outrighted to Triple-A, where he remained until early May, when his contract was purchased. Colabello went on to post an .886 OPS with 15 homers in 101 MLB games.

 

He was available to the Blue Jays because they took a flyer on him in December and 29 teams decided not to take a flyer when he was available two months later.

 

Remember that time the Tigers took a flyer on J.D. Martinez prior to the 2014 season, signing him to a minor league deal shortly after he was released by the Astros? That seems to have worked out.

 

How about that flyer the Rangers took on Shawn Tolleson when they claimed him off waivers from the Dodgers two offseasons ago? Surely they knew he would be the closer for a bullpen that would be dominant during their playoff run in 2015.

 

The Astros once took a flyer on Collin McHugh, claiming him off waivers from the pitching-starved Rockies. Yes, that really happened.

 

And my favorite flyer of all was the Royals' signing of Chris Young, a 35-year-old who was really good in 2007 and mostly injured since. A month before the 2015 season started, the Royals decided to give the 6-foot-10 right-hander a one-year major league deal for $675,000. Sure enough, Young would inexplicably return to his pre-2008 form to become one of the most reliable pitchers on his World Series-champion roster. Shrewd move, Dayton Moore.

 

Target advanced hitting prospects in the draft and keep them in the minors as long as possible

 

Once you get past the first 10-15 or so picks in the MLB amateur draft, it's tough to find that rare player who has both star potential and is close to MLB-ready.

 

A lot of the players with the highest ceilings will also have a low floor, meaning there is a good chance they'll never come close to their potential, not to mention they'll take years to develop even if they do.

 

Then there are the players who have little chance of becoming anything more than an average MLB regular, but aren't far from being able to hold their own against big league competition. In reality, there are so many rounds that teams can usually take a good share of both types of players. I'd lean toward the advanced hitters being my main area of focus, though.

 

If called upon to help out a depleted roster early in their pro careers, these are the guys who won't be overwhelmed. Greg Bird and Stephen Piscotty were those guys in 2015. A.J. Reed of the Astros could be that guy in 2016.

 

Meanwhile, that prospect with the loud tools and high ceiling that was drafted a few rounds earlier will still be learning how to hit a curveball down at high-A Rancho Cucamonga.

 

Sign, heal and deliver

 

You know which players fall off the MLB radar the fastest and the furthest? Free-agent pitchers who are recovering from Tommy John surgery.

 

Because they're out of commission for so long, we forget these guys even exist, let alone used to be effective major league pitchers. Many teams will hold off on signing a Tommy John surgery returnee until they're throwing at full strength and holding showcases in front of several other interested teams.

 

Here's the thing, though: While shoulder injuries can indeed derail pitching careers, a high percentage of pitchers who have Tommy John (elbow) surgery come back as strong as ever. Sure, it might take 18 months, but it's a near certainty that they'll return at least closer to their previous form.

 

 

Kris Medlen was mostly outta-sight, outta-mind after having his second Tommy John surgery in March 2014. John Sleezer/Kansas City Star/TNS/Getty Images

So when a good MLB pitcher like Kris Medlen was available as a free agent last winter at a discounted rate because he was only nine months removed from Tommy John surgery, the cost-conscious Royals pounced.

 

By guaranteeing him $2 million in 2015 to possibly help in the second half -- he ended up winning five of his eight late-season starts -- they were able to lock him in at a bargain rate of $5.5 million in 2016 when he's likely to be back at full strength and able to help in the rotation or bullpen. Prior to his elbow injury, Medlen was on the verge of stardom after going 25-13 with a 2.47 ERA, 1.9 BB/9 and 7.4 K/9 in 42 starts and 39 relief appearances for the Braves in 2012-13.

 

Um, anyone have Greg Holland's phone number?

 

And finally, the versatile lefty-mashing super-utility player

 

If MLB teams held a local tryout camp, here's a conversation I could see happening:

 

Scout at the sign-in table: Can you hit right-handed pitching?

Player: Not too well.

Scout: Sorry, son. A majority of major league pitchers are right-handed. You're never going to be a major leaguer. Have a nice day.

 

MLB hopeful walks away with his dreams crushed.)

 

Scout: Wait, hold on! By any chance, are you a plus defender at catcher, center field or shortstop?

Player: Not really.

Scout: OK, never mind. You could never be a major league regular. Carry on.

 

(MLB hopeful walks away with his dreams shattered.)

 

Scout: Wait, I just thought of something. Can you hit lefties well?

Player: Now that I can do.

Scout: Can you play at least adequate defense at multiple positions?

Player: Sure.

Scout: OK, great. We might have something for you. It won't pay much, but it's a gig. You ever heard of a super-utilityman?

 

OK, so I realize that's not how things work. But the point of this exercise is to show that big league teams don't fill out their bench with future MLB regulars. Most AL teams have only four bench spots and NL teams only five -- that's when everybody is healthy -- and it's very helpful if one bench option can do the job of two. There's not a lot of room for a one-trick pony, such as Royals pinch-running specialist Terrance Gore, at least not until rosters expand in September.

 

Meanwhile, MLB teams tend to have one or two lefties in their lineup who struggle versus left-handed pitching. As such, GMs target versatile players who can hit left-handed pitching and play multiple positions but are undervalued because they don't possess the skills to become a big league regular.

 

Take a look at what a pair of rookies, Enrique Hernandez and Kelby Tomlinson, did in 2015.

 

Hernandez: .593 OPS in 124 at-bats vs. RHPs; 1.215 OPS in 78 at-bats vs. LHPs; played CF, 2B, SS, LF, 3B, RF

 

Tomlinson: .682 OPS in 116 at-bats vs. RHPs; .913 OPS in 62 at-bats vs LHP; played 2B in MLB but has also played SS in the minors and should be able to handle 3B and LF

 

That's tremendous value out of two guys who weren't on anybody's radar heading into the season. When second baseman Howie Kendrick suffered a hamstring injury and with Joc Pederson mired in a second-half slump, it was Hernandez who stepped in to pick up the slack for the Dodgers. Meanwhile, Tomlinson was helping the Giants stay afloat in the playoff race while filling in for the injured Joe Panik.

 

Super-utility is not to be confused with super hero, but every playoff contender tends to have at least one of 'em.