Jump to content
Jays Centre
  • Create Account

Blue Jays 2016 ZIPS projections

G-Snarls

By G-Snarls
in Toronto Blue Jays Talk

 Share

Recommended Posts

BTS GOAT

BTS

Community Moderator
Posted
Posted
How so? It's projecting improvement for him.

 

~1 win over a full season is pretty disappointing compared to most fan expectations I think.

Dr. Dinger GOAT

Dr. Dinger

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
~1 win over a full season is pretty disappointing compared to most fan expectations I think.

 

I don't think most fans expect much at all, actually.

Dr. Dinger GOAT

Dr. Dinger

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
Ya, exactly. What happens when they start to decline...

 

Who cares? Dickey, Bautista and EE are all off the books after this year. Their declines (specifically Dickey) will no longer be our problem.

Olerud363 FCL Blue Jays

Olerud363

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
I would bet Pompey outperforms that given the playing time. Projection systems certainly aren't gospel.

 

How the hell is Dwight Smith Jr. projected for higher rates than Pompey?? Pompey is a .280 .370 .430ish minor leaguer hitter, with similar bb and k rates to Smith

 

Smith is a .268 .344 .370 or so minor league hitter.

 

This doesn't seem right. There is no reason for Smith to have a higher projection... I don't think...

Olerud363 FCL Blue Jays

Olerud363

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
They'll be less good, but still pretty good.

 

Yes. Guys with 8 WAR peak seasons (Bautista, Donaldson hit 8, Tulo would of if healthy) are still pretty good after 30% decline.

 

I mean they weren't really 8 WAR guys, they were 6 + noise, and now are 4.5s

G-Snarls Cooperstown

G-Snarls

Community Moderator
Posted
  • Author
Posted
Who cares? Dickey, Bautista and EE are all off the books after this year. Their declines (specifically Dickey) will no longer be our problem.

 

Yeah. We have a couple more solid years with this core. I'll just enjoy it while it lasts.

Olerud363 FCL Blue Jays

Olerud363

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
Zips

 

Richard Urena -> .285 wOBA

Ryan Goins -> .265 wOBA

 

I wonder if it is weigting mlb data to heavily...

 

If you have a guy with 2000 decent minor league at bats, I wonder if 200 bad mlb at bats biases the projection.

 

So Urena ends up higher then Goins, Dwight Smith higher then Pompey... despite the fact that Pompey and Goins have better long term minor league numbers.

Laika Cooperstown

Laika

Community Moderator
Posted
Posted
Jose Irena currently a better hotter than Ryan Goins apparently.

 

Irena hotter

Boxcar All-Star

Boxcar

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
How the hell is Dwight Smith Jr. projected for higher rates than Pompey?? Pompey is a .280 .370 .430ish minor leaguer hitter, with similar bb and k rates to Smith

 

Smith is a .268 .344 .370 or so minor league hitter.

 

This doesn't seem right. There is no reason for Smith to have a higher projection... I don't think...

 

Short answer: ZiPS is trash

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share
Go to topic listing
The Jays Centre Caretaker Fund
The Jays Centre Caretaker Fund

You all care about this site. The next step is caring for it. We’re asking you to caretake this site so it can remain the premier Blue Jays community on the internet.

Become a Caretaker

  • Member Statistics

    20,997
    Total Members
    48,845
    Most Online
    Sarahh
    Newest Member
    Sarahh
    Joined
×
×
  • Create New...