Craig Kimbrel to the Red Sox; Margot, Guerra, Allen, Asuaje to Padres

[Maahfaace]

This is true especially in short series situations. You could sign 25 first baseman all with a 10 WAR and you will finish in last place.

 

This is still a situational game and you can bring David Price into the critical situation or you can bring Estrada or Wade Davis into the critical situation. Ask Jays fans out of the three who they would rather bring into the critical situation - Price may have the highest WAR but chances are - what we just saw - will dictate that Price would be the last pick of the three given recent history. In most sports you play the hot hand regardless of the long term statistical evidence.

 

These teams have access to people who are doling out numbers galore and teams seem to be spending a lot more focus on relief and closers - so the arm chair fans looking at WAR might be advised to hunt for some numbers on relievers that may explain why some pundits equate Kimbrel to a number 2/3 starter in terms of value to a team (and at 13million of those numbers are true) may be a rather good fiscal decision. Kansas City continually harps on the shut the game down after the 6th inning - WS 7th game loss followed by a WS win - and mediocre rotation and not the greatest offensive team in the world - but an elite pen. Some math wiz is sitting at a cubicle in the Royals system pounding out numbers getting paid a salary and probably knows something none of us know about reliever valuations to overall team wins.

 

Fortunately our pen looks pretty solid - Getting Cecil back and healthy will be really nice.

 

A Darren O'Day would be nice as a set-up guy and might not require a long term contract. Plus he's established success against the AL East. Doesn't walk people, doesn't give up home runs, doesn't give up a lot of hits and is over a k per inning. He'd come in well under the Kimbrel contracts and seems to be as good or very close numbers wise over the last 4-5 seasons. And can probably close in a pinch as well.

 

Joey Bats and ODay in the same clubhouse, that would be fun to see

[THANOS]

Joey Bats and ODay in the same clubhouse, that would be fun to see

 

It would be lol. I say just sign Bastardo and Kelley. Both average over 10 K/9 and have great FIPS, so they could combine with Cecil and Hendriks to cover innings 6-9 for us. Let Osuna and Hutch fight for 5th starter with the loser in AAA starting as depth. Sanchez can be the long-man.

Edited November 14, 2015 by THANOS

[Angrioter]

Kimbrel hasn't fallen off a cliff like some of you suggest, his K/BB rates are still fantastic, his fastball velocity is still consistently upper 90's ( no change from earlier years). The major difference affecting his WAR output from this year was the HR/9.

Id be willing to bet he pisses off a lot of Jays fans closing out games for the Sox with his eliteness the next couple of years, and Id expect a 2+ WAR out of him next season if healthy. f*** steamer and their projections, how a rough april translates into a full season of 1.3 WAR for arguably one of the best relievers in MLB from mid May on is beyond me.

 

Still a ridiculous overpay for him though

 

WAR and RP isn't a great idea. Kimbrel is going to pitch in games down for many runs.

[Angrioter]

It would be lol. I say just sign Bastardo and Kelley. Both average over 10 K/9 and have great FIPS, so they could combine with Cecil and Hendriks to cover innings 6-9 for us. Let Osuna and Hutch fight for 5th starter with the loser in AAA starting as depth. Sanchez can be the long-man.

 

My cousin Antonio doesn't like Canada. Sad but true..... He prefer to play in the east but Canada maybe is last in his list.

[Frenchsoup]

DD the new Ruben Amaro? Where the hell does DD see the Boston Red Sox on the win curve is all i want to know. They weren't very good last year.

[AdamGreenwood]

I'm pretty happy with that trade. The Sox lose some very good prospects, and use up ~12 million/year on Kimbrel, that they no longer have available to fix that s***** starting rotation.

Last year, when the Sox were sitting on a pile of ridiculous offensive talent and prospects, they couldn't find a trade partner to get a starting pitcher, which was absurd given the imbalance Boston had between offense and defense.

[TheHurl]

DD the new Ruben Amaro? Where the hell does DD see the Boston Red Sox on the win curve is all i want to know. They weren't very good last year.

 

While I don't agree with the price of the move (I am a Logan Allen guy and he is probably the least valued of the 4) the Red Sox were 10 games over .500 for July and August, before dumping their last 4 in draft pick gainers. They should view themselves as a team that needs to add wins...and they just did. I don't think adding a really, really good closer is ever "the move". But it's safe to say that Boston is not finished.

Edited November 14, 2015 by TheHurl

[Frenchsoup]

While I don't agree with the price of the move (I am a Logan Allen guy and he is probably the least valued of the 4) the Red Sox were 10 games over .500 for July and August, before dumping there last 4 in draft pick gainers. They should view themselves as a team that needs to add wins...and they just did. I don't think adding a really, really good closer is ever "the move". But it's safe to say that Boston is not finished.

 

Yeah i guess they're not terrible, it just feels like they gave up a huge chunk of their future. Kimbrel is a risky bet, he pretty much has to be the one of best relievers in the baseball for the next 3 years to make the deal justifiable.

[GeorgiaPeach]

Id be willing to bet he pisses off a lot of Jays fans closing out games for the Sox with his eliteness the next couple of years

 

My guess is the only Jays fans he'll piss off are the ones emotionally invested in the team. People who've followed sports long enough can endure the ebbs and flows of winning and losing.

 

And I'd rather have Andrelton on his contract than Kimbrel on his.

[GeorgiaPeach]

DD the new Ruben Amaro? Where the hell does DD see the Boston Red Sox on the win curve is all i want to know. They weren't very good last year.

 

Not paying attention to the Tigers the past few years?

 

Sure they had success, but man that team was in trouble if DD was left to carry on much longer.

[EMK19]

I'd rather sign Bastardo, Kelley, and Seung-hwan Oh (if he posts), than trade for Chapman.

 

Oh has a great mentality as a closer and has a plus fastball from what I remember watching KBO games, but he's a two pitch pitcher with his secondary pitch (slider) being below average so I'm not quite sure how effective he'd be at the ML level. If he can be brought on for the right price then I'd give him a shot.

[KingKat]

War is not leverage weighted. Kimbrel and Hendriks had the same fWAR this year despite the later getting next to no leverage. Their context neutral performance was essentially the same but their context independent performances were radically different. If you want a stat that compares leverage, you need to look a WPA (Win Probability Added). Kimbrel had a 3.32 while Hendriks was -0.42. So Kimbrel's value was basically doubled because of good high leverage performance while Hendriks' performance accomplished very little when it came to game situations, he basically just ate innings despite pitching very well.

[SAAviour]

This is true especially in short series situations. You could sign 25 first baseman all with a 10 WAR and you will finish in last place.

 

This is still a situational game and you can bring David Price into the critical situation or you can bring Estrada or Wade Davis into the critical situation. Ask Jays fans out of the three who they would rather bring into the critical situation - Price may have the highest WAR but chances are - what we just saw - will dictate that Price would be the last pick of the three given recent history. In most sports you play the hot hand regardless of the long term statistical evidence.

 

These teams have access to people who are doling out numbers galore and teams seem to be spending a lot more focus on relief and closers - so the arm chair fans looking at WAR might be advised to hunt for some numbers on relievers that may explain why some pundits equate Kimbrel to a number 2/3 starter in terms of value to a team (and at 13million of those numbers are true) may be a rather good fiscal decision. Kansas City continually harps on the shut the game down after the 6th inning - WS 7th game loss followed by a WS win - and mediocre rotation and not the greatest offensive team in the world - but an elite pen. Some math wiz is sitting at a cubicle in the Royals system pounding out numbers getting paid a salary and probably knows something none of us know about reliever valuations to overall team wins.

 

Fortunately our pen looks pretty solid - Getting Cecil back and healthy will be really nice.

 

A Darren O'Day would be nice as a set-up guy and might not require a long term contract. Plus he's established success against the AL East. Doesn't walk people, doesn't give up home runs, doesn't give up a lot of hits and is over a k per inning. He'd come in well under the Kimbrel contracts and seems to be as good or very close numbers wise over the last 4-5 seasons. And can probably close in a pinch as well.

 

Isn't O'day sitting on multiple offers and predicted to sign for about 4/40?

 

Nevertheless I wouldn't want him on this team, Bautista would murder him and join his buddy Reyes in prison.

[RealAccountant]

4/40 for Oday lol

[SAAviour]

4/40 for Oday lol

 

I agree, but that's what I've been reading.

[closetjaysfan]

War is not leverage weighted. Kimbrel and Hendriks had the same fWAR this year despite the later getting next to no leverage. Their context neutral performance was essentially the same but their context independent performances were radically different. If you want a stat that compares leverage, you need to look a WPA (Win Probability Added). Kimbrel had a 3.32 while Hendriks was -0.42. So Kimbrel's value was basically doubled because of good high leverage performance while Hendriks' performance accomplished very little when it came to game situations, he basically just ate innings despite pitching very well.

 

I wonder what he could have done if he was used differently. He recall him pitching well in a couple tight spots. That said, Cecil is better used in that roll.