League Transitions for Pitchers

[Slugger]

This thread is the rare argument between people who believe exactly the same thing.

 

Haha, Christ. Nothing has changed.

[Grant77]

This thread is the rare argument between people who believe exactly the same thing.

 

If only he hadn't changed his beliefs after the fact. Pretending that every stupid statement is sarcasm is one way to never be wrong, I'll give him that.

[Boxcar]

OCPD. Haven't run into many people with it, somehow. That's definitely the one, though.

 

Obsessive-compulsive personality disorder (OCPD) is a type of personality disorder marked by rigidity, control, perfectionism, and an overconcern with work at the expense of close interpersonal relationships. Persons with this disorder often have trouble relaxing because they are preoccupied with details, rules, and productivity. They are often perceived by others as stubborn, stingy, self-righteous, and uncooperative.

 

Read more: http://www.minddisorders.com/Ob-Ps/Obsessive-compulsive-personality-disorder.html#ixzz3pe1eiLO9

[Grant77]

OCPD. Haven't run into many people with it, somehow. That's definitely the one, though.

 

My personality type was an off the charts INTP when I had to take it at work if that helps with your research.

 

"INTPs are known for their brilliant theories and unrelenting logic – in fact, they are considered the most logically precise of all the personality types. They love patterns, and spotting discrepancies between statements could almost be described as a hobby, making it a bad idea to lie to an INTP."

[fatcowxlive]

Well this argument people will believe in because it's an obvious fact: You get to face DH in the AL instead of a pitcher so of course you're prone to more dicey situations when facing an extra capable batter. However you were arguing that no NL-only pitcher who's signed a multi-year contract with an AL team with no prior AL experience has done well, and it's why AL teams don't sign them... but there isn't even a handful of pitchers in the last decade to have this situation arise, usually pitchers either get extensions from their teams or get traded at the deadline to a contending team - AL or not. With that being said, I still think you're wrong in thinking that AL GMs care about AL experience or not. We've seen teams countless times give up prospects at the deadline to get pitchers from the NL like Hamels, or Gallardo, or Peavy, or Cueto, or Norris, etc. and don't forget we signed Burnett to a 5 year deal and the Halladay-Burnett 1-2 punch kicked ass! I doubt AL front offices really care about AL experience

[TheHurl]

If you're so logical, you should have realized that the Myers-Briggs test is pointless pseudo-science.

 

A nerd mic drop!

[BTS]

Grant, Boxy, Dinger, njh, Hurl and BTS all involved in a silly flame war thread on the toronto blue jays message boards. Throwback to 2008.

[Grant77]

Well this argument people will believe in because it's an obvious fact: You get to face DH in the AL instead of a pitcher so of course you're prone to more dicey situations when facing an extra capable batter. However you were arguing that no NL-only pitcher who's signed a multi-year contract with an AL team with no prior AL experience has done well, and it's why AL teams don't sign them... but there isn't even a handful of pitchers in the last decade to have this situation arise, usually pitchers either get extensions from their teams or get traded at the deadline to a contending team - AL or not. With that being said, I still think you're wrong in thinking that AL GMs care about AL experience or not. We've seen teams countless times give up prospects at the deadline to get pitchers from the NL like Hamels, or Gallardo, or Peavy, or Cueto, or Norris, etc. and don't forget we signed Burnett to a 5 year deal and the Halladay-Burnett 1-2 punch kicked ass! I doubt AL front offices really care about AL experience

 

You're twisting my words an awful lot. That's really frustrating and difficult to respond to, so please try to observe the golden rule. I try my best to be fair with you.

 

What I have been saying is that there is a disparity that goes above and beyond the designated hitter rule. It's a disparity in talent that is most obvious in interleague play, but is also found in the study I just conducted.

 

I still think that AL GM's do care about that disparity because you're walking a fine line with a pitcher like Mike Leake. He's already pushing a projected 4.5 ERA in Toronto and with even a small loss in stuff, he becomes a huge albatross. With guys that you mentioned like Hamels, there's some wiggle room. He's not going to become a 5th starter because his ERA goes up a bit (and it did).

[Grant77]

If you're so logical, you should have realized that the Myers-Briggs test is pointless pseudo-science.

 

I got paid to take it, don't really give a f*** what it is.

[Boxcar]

Hmm, could be Narcissistic Personality Disorder as well. You should see a therapist to get diagnosed and let us know which one it is. The symptoms are similar.

[Grant77]

Hmm, could be Narcissistic Personality Disorder as well. You should see a therapist to get diagnosed and let us know which one it is. The symptoms are similar.

 

Narcissism is the first word I'd use to describe you. I'm generally easy going and self deprecating.

[jaysblue]

Grant, want to join the DDL and LOD?

[fatcowxlive]

You're twisting my words an awful lot. That's really frustrating and difficult to respond to, so please try to observe the golden rule. I try my best to be fair with you.

 

What I have been saying is that there is a disparity that goes above and beyond the designated hitter rule. It's a disparity in talent that is most obvious in interleague play, but is also found in the study I just conducted.

 

I still think that AL GM's do care about that disparity because you're walking a fine line with a pitcher like Mike Leake. He's already pushing a projected 4.5 ERA in Toronto and with even a small loss in stuff, he becomes a huge albatross. With guys that you mentioned like Hamels, there's some wiggle room. He's not going to become a 5th starter because his ERA goes up a bit (and it did).

 

We'll see what happens with Latos and Leake since they're basically the only two who haven't had AL experience. I just think that given the track record with how we've seen so many NL starters move over to the AL via trade, that these GMs had they truly cared about the 'disparity in talent' they wouldn't have thrown so many prospects away for these pitchers.

 

When talking about an increase in ERA due to facing the extra DH, doesn't that become negligible when the team the starter's on also has a DH for his team? I mean if the ERA would jump by .50, in the eyes of the AL club, because they're still scoring more than a NL team on average, it doesn't really effect his value to them at the end of the day? I mean the starter would give up a bit more runs but his team is scoring more too. That's why we have teams in the AL like us where a starter that gives up 4 runs a game is still good enough to keep us in the game. Just an idea though

[fatcowxlive]

Grant, Boxy, Dinger, njh, Hurl and BTS all involved in a silly flame war thread on the toronto blue jays message boards. Throwback to 2008.

 

Hey whatever happened to Noxage?

[Grant77]

Grant, want to join the DDL and LOD?

 

I don't have the time in the summer months, sorry. I had to pass my only team off to Spanky last year for the same reasons, but he led it to first place at least.

[Slugger]

So, Grant.

 

It's a 'no' from you regarding Leake, eh?

[Grant77]

We'll see what happens with Latos and Leake since they're basically the only two who haven't had AL experience. I just think that given the track record with how we've seen so many NL starters move over to the AL via trade, that these GMs had they truly cared about the 'disparity in talent' they wouldn't have thrown so many prospects away for these pitchers.

 

When talking about an increase in ERA due to facing the extra DH, doesn't that become negligible when the team the starter's on also has a DH for his team? I mean if the ERA would jump by .50, in the eyes of the AL club, because they're still scoring more than a NL team on average, it doesn't really effect his value to them at the end of the day? I mean the starter would give up a bit more runs but his team is scoring more too. That's why we have teams in the AL like us where a starter that gives up 4 runs a game is still good enough to keep us in the game. Just an idea though

 

I think understand what you're saying, meaning that the pitcher still has the same chance to win the game because his team will also score more. That's true for a portion of the differential (.19 ERA the last 3 years, but it changes a bit). The rest of the difference comes from the fact that American League hitters are just better. Unless National league pitcher X has a track record in the American League that shows otherwise, I think it's fair to assume that the averages will hold true and he won't be an exception to the rule. I think GM's know that and use it in their evaluations, but I accept your point of view on the subject as well.

[Grant77]

So, Grant.

 

It's a 'no' from you regarding Leake, eh?

 

200 innings of a 4.5 FIP is about 1.5 WAR, so I'd pay whatever that comes out to on a 2-3 year deal, but no more.

[fatcowxlive]

I think understand what you're saying, meaning that the pitcher still has the same chance to win the game because his team will also score more. That's true for a portion of the differential (.19 ERA the last 3 years, but it changes a bit). The rest of the difference comes from the fact that American League hitters are just better. Unless National league pitcher X has a track record in the American League that shows otherwise, I think it's fair to assume that the averages will hold true and he won't be an exception to the rule. I think GM's know that and use it in their evaluations, but I accept your point of view on the subject as well.

Yes! This is what I was getting at, while the precieved value in the numbers seems to have dipped the true value is the same because the offence is just naturally better in the AL thanks to the DH. I see the point you are trying to make on your end though.

[Slugger]

200 innings of a 4.5 FIP is about 1.5 WAR, so I'd pay whatever that comes out to on a 2-3 year deal, but no more.

 

I was being a smartass.

 

I mentioned in the off-season thread that if Dickey's option was declined you'd use that money to sign a pitcher (not necessarily Leake) who essentially puts up the same numbers.

[Farm]

You guys are all idiots. There's nothing wrong with his argument since there is clearly a disproportionate in ERA between leagues. Whether or not he is right is another thing. It is fine to disagree with him, but if you are too lazy to do any research or work yourself then just don't comment. It's stupid to have multiple posters ganging up on one person and giving ad hominem attacks as a way to discredit an argument.

 

Anyways, some thoughts. One possible explanation is ERA variance (does the same pattern hold for FIP/xFIP/ERA- etc.) and maybe there's nothing there. It would be interesting to see if there is the presence of some adjustment period for pitchers (does ERA regress to their previous stats, either on a month-to-month basis or maybe even over a few years?).

 

If you care enough, maybe you can look at LOB% to see if pitchers who make the transition from the NL to the AL have a more difficult time getting out of innings without a pitcher hitting as a safety valve.

[Grant77]

I was being a smartass.

 

I mentioned in the off-season thread that if Dickey's option was declined you'd use that money to sign a pitcher (not necessarily Leake) who essentially puts up the same numbers.

 

I hope Dickey's option isn't declined. As frustrating as he is, we really need those innings. I think we need a reliable pitcher in addition to him to be honest. Then you have Stroman, pitcher X, Dickey, Hutchison, and Sanchez/Osuna. I have a lot of faith in Sanchez, but you could always get a reclamation project for that 5 hole as well.

[BigBounceyBlueBalls]

Holy the Dick swinging and ******** is Flying in here!

 

Good thing this offseason is going to be shorter then most!

 

You would thing a Mod who just lock this down, I am sure this does not inspire board growth nore look good to newcomers!

 

Bloody Shame! Wow

[KingKat]

What's the sport where you swing your dick at ******** called again?

[Olerud363]

Your sample is fairly small, does not account for defense, park factors, etc. All you've proven is that the run environment is different in each league. Surpriiiise

 

As far as I can see he hasn't accounted for ageing either. The guys in the second sample are a year older. Many, if not most of the guys making a league transition after a 100 inning season will be on the wrong side of the aging curve.

[intentional wok]

What's the sport where you swing your dick at ******** called again?

 

Moderating.

[Farm]

As far as I can see he hasn't accounted for ageing either. The guys in the second sample are a year older. Many, if not most of the guys making a league transition after a 100 inning season will be on the wrong side of the aging curve.

 

The first sample is composed of pitchers who transitioned from the NL to the AL during free agency. The second sample is composed of pitchers who transitioned from the AL to the NL during free agency. Unless you took the time to identify those pitchers and look at their average ages, there is nothing that suggests pitchers from the second sample are a year older.

 

So congratulations, you just managed to show that you either did not: 1. read his argument or 2. did not care enough to take the time to understand his argument before jumping in and criticizing it.

[TheHurl]

Hey whatever happened to Noxage?

 

He tried to log in yesterday to take some Ruben Amaro shots...found out his SN was deleted. Probably because he sold out and began working for the Non Baseball Evil Empire.

[Olerud363]

The first sample is composed of pitchers who transitioned from the NL to the AL during free agency. The second sample is composed of pitchers who transitioned from the AL to the NL during free agency. Unless you took the time to identify those pitchers and look at their average ages, there is nothing that suggests pitchers from the second sample are a year older.

 

So congratulations, you just managed to show that you either did not: 1. read his argument or 2. did not care enough to take the time to understand his argument before jumping in and criticizing it.

 

You're absolutely right. I didn't look closely at his argument. Full apologies.

[Frank Menechino]

Hey y'all. Perpetual lurker here with an outside opinion. This all boils down to Grant having an insatiable desire to feel respected by the hive. Yet Grant is clearly not as statistically versed. He takes other posters down into a rabbit hole of hypotheticals that goes so deep no one even knows what they're arguing anymore.

 

1) Grant - calm down, be more rational, and inform yourself a little more before taking on people smarter than you

 

2) Someone just give the guy a lollipop and let him feel like he won something