Offseason Roster Thread

[Spanky__99]

Stupid is, as stupid does.

 

I'm waiting for FTL next, lol. Joke!

[burlingtonbandit]

if there was a Pillar poll this time last year and someone predicted +4 WAR, some would have literally died laughing

 

Goins at +2 WAR from a full season at SS is certainly possible

 

Thats like saying Donaldson can be a 10 WAR player. Sure its possible, but very unlikely and you should not be predicting that value when looking at forecasting player performance.

[Laika]

if there was a Pillar poll this time last year and someone predicted +4 WAR, some would have literally died laughing

 

Goins at +2 WAR from a full season at SS is certainly possible

 

And if my grandmother had wheels she'd be a bike

 

what is this

[Spanky__99]

I LOVE ME!!!

 

cf

[THANOS]

(LINK) Spencer Estey of Breaking Blue shows that Tulo should still be a "surplus" player or thereabouts even at the end of his deal

 

Nice, and here lies exactly why Tulo could net something good on the trade market.

 

http://www.breakingblue.ca/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/comparison1.png

 

This also seems very conservative with the $/WAR estimation in future years, so the surplus value could be even higher.

Edited November 4, 2015 by NorthOf49

[burlingtonbandit]

Nice, and here lies exactly why Tulo could net something good on the trade market.

 

http://www.breakingblue.ca/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/comparison1.png

 

This also seems very conservative with the $/WAR estimation in future years, so the surplus value could be even higher.

 

Who's playing SS for the Blue Jays?

[Spanky__99]

And if my grandmother had wheels she'd be a bike

 

what is this

 

That's just nasty, don't say that.

 

Just tell him he's dumn.

[RealAccountant]

Goins is not a starter, Goins next year is the perfect guy to backup Travis and Tulo. Both coming off injuries, both need off days. Goins will still get his fill of the playing time. There is nothing wrong with the Jays infield

 

Focus should be on Starting pitching. You dont get better by taking away pieces from a team that came within 2 wins of the World Series.

[burlingtonbandit]

Goins is not a starter, Goins next year is the perfect guy to backup Travis and Tulo. Both coming off injuries, both need off days. Goins will still get his fill of the playing time. There is nothing wrong with the Jays infield

 

Focus should be on Starting pitching. You dont get better by taking away pieces from a team that came within 2 wins of the World Series.

 

Nice backtracking..

[Jimcanuck]

Thats like saying Donaldson can be a 10 WAR player. Sure its possible, but very unlikely and you should not be predicting that value when looking at forecasting player performance.

 

Sure, based on past results the predictive value is somewhere closer to 1 WAR. Those that believe Goins' new approach at the plate will continue to pay dividends will predict a higher value.

 

My post is in response to Spanky "f***ing heads checked", "stupid is as stupid does". He is the stupid one for refusing to consider the possibility of a breakthrough season from Goins.

[RealAccountant]

Nice backtracking..

 

Backtracking from what, I think you have your opponents confused

[Spanky__99]

Sure, based on past results the predictive value is somewhere closer to 1 WAR. Those that believe Goins' new approach at the plate will continue to pay dividends will predict a higher value.

 

My post is in response to Spanky "f***ing heads checked", "stupid is as stupid does". He is the stupid one for refusing to consider the possibility of a breakthrough season from Goins.

 

lol... should I bookmark this *******?

[Jimcanuck]

lol... should I bookmark this *******?

 

Go ahead, drunken fool

[Boxcar]

Also doesn't take into account that it's very possible Tulo puts up a 6-7 win season at any time.

[THANOS]

Who's playing SS for the Blue Jays?

 

I'm not saying we should trade him, but if we did we could always sign Ian Desmond, maybe for a short 1-2 year deal where he can try and rebuild his value before going for the type of contract he truly seemed primed for. What better way than to do that playing for the best offense in baseball?

[Jimcanuck]

Nice, and here lies exactly why Tulo could net something good on the trade market.

 

http://www.breakingblue.ca/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/comparison1.png

 

This also seems very conservative with the $/WAR estimation in future years, so the surplus value could be even higher.

 

Goins provided $11.2M of surplus value this year.

[guylaroche5]

I actually kinda missed the offseason, it's been far too long since I woke up and checked MLBTR. Also a lot of annoying posters go on vacation

[Laika]

Also doesn't take into account that it's very possible Tulo puts up a 6-7 win season at any time.

 

sure it takes that into account

 

it's also very possible that he misses almost an entire season due to being old and s***

[THANOS]

Also doesn't take into account that it's very possible Tulo puts up a 6-7 win season at any time.

 

Very true, but I only mentioned the $/WAR variance because it's most likely to occur. Tulo could do that anytime, especially with this offense, in this park, and away from the awful living/breathing conditions of Colorado.

[burlingtonbandit]

I'm not saying we should trade him, but if we did we could always sign Ian Desmond, maybe for a short 1-2 year deal where he can try and rebuild his value before going for the type of contract he truly seemed primed for. What better way than to do that playing for the best offense in baseball?

 

Can't see that making the Jays better. You save maybe 10 million for having Desmond assuming he would even sign here. And then you would have to have a 2 Win upgrade in the rotation to justify moving Tulo.

[BTS]

Nice, and here lies exactly why Tulo could net something good on the trade market.

 

http://www.breakingblue.ca/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/comparison1.png

 

This also seems very conservative with the $/WAR estimation in future years, so the surplus value could be even higher.

 

If you start that exercise using Steamer's current projection (3.5 WAR) the projected surplus goes from 50 to ~20.

[GD]

Nice, and here lies exactly why Tulo could net something good on the trade market.

 

http://www.breakingblue.ca/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/comparison1.png

 

This also seems very conservative with the $/WAR estimation in future years, so the surplus value could be even higher.

 

$/WAR is conservative, projections are optimistic

[BTS]

Does anyone actually know what $/WAR we should all be using when we do these stupid things? People throw around anywhere from 7-11.

[Laika]

Does anyone actually know what $/WAR we should all be using when we do these stupid things? People throw around anywhere from 7-11.

 

It really doesn't matter. Pick whatever number better suits your argument.

[Abomination]

Does anyone actually know what $/WAR we should all be using when we do these stupid things? People throw around anywhere from 7-11.

 

In one of the press conferences the last day or so, I think they said the Jays use 9M/WAR right now.

[BTS]

In one of the press conferences the last day or so, I think they said the Jays use 9M/WAR right now.

 

Who said that? I had no idea Jays management knew/cared what a WAR was.

[GD]

Does anyone actually know what $/WAR we should all be using when we do these stupid things? People throw around anywhere from 7-11.

 

8.5 or so as league average

 

Adjusted for win curve very roughly

[Abomination]

Who said that? I had no idea Jays management knew/cared what a WAR was.

 

I can't find it, but I remember hearing it in one of the interviews. I just don't remember which one.

[Laika]

I can't find it, but I remember hearing it in one of the interviews. I just don't remember which one.

 

Probably Shapiro's interview from years ago

[Abomination]

Probably Shapiro's interview from years ago

 

No, it was in the last few days.