Official MiLB/Prospects Thread

[THANOS]

I just read about Bonilla, plus hit tool, prodigious raw power, big arm, size, and tons of athleticism. They also noted he has very little swing and miss.

 

This is the OF prospect we've been hoping for. I can't wait to see him with our development team and using the Dunedin Complex to train.

[Brownie19]

I just read about Bonilla, plus hit tool, prodigious raw power, big arm, size, and tons of athleticism. They also noted he has very little swing and miss.

 

This is the OF prospect we've been hoping for. I can't wait to see him with our development team and using the Dunedin Complex to train.

 

and fans will assume we signed Bobby's son.

[Ray]

I just read about Bonilla, plus hit tool, prodigious raw power, big arm, size, and tons of athleticism. They also noted he has very little swing and miss.

 

This is the OF prospect we've been hoping for. I can't wait to see him with our development team and using the Dunedin Complex to train.

 

It’s our own version of Soto!

 

In all seriousness, a $4M price tag for a corner OF on the international market is absurd. Only up the middle and pitchers get that much typically, which means the tools and athleticism for Bonilla must be off the charts for us to commit to that. Even Soto himself got a $1.5M bonus. Exciting to think about!

[The_DH]

and fans will assume we signed Bobby's son.

 

he sure sounds like a young Bobby, except for the switch hitting.

[AdamGreenwood]

It’s our own version of Soto!

 

In all seriousness, a $4M price tag for a corner OF on the international market is absurd. Only up the middle and pitchers get that much typically, which means the tools and athleticism for Bonilla must be off the charts for us to commit to that. Even Soto himself got a $1.5M bonus. Exciting to think about!

 

Based on the salary, I expect he will be ~2.5x (4/1.5) times better than Soto.

Which means if Soto has a .400 OBP, our guy will have a .1000 OBP and hit roughly 75 HR a season.

[Deadpool]

and fans will assume we signed Bobby's son.

 

The great thing about that, is instead of paying him the full bonus we can give him $100K a year for 40 years...

[Ray]

Keith Law released his Top 100 today. 4 Blue Jays listed:

 

#6 Gabriel Moreno

#44 Orelvis Martinez

#89 Kevin Smith

#99 Jordan Groshans

 

6. Gabriel Moreno, C, Toronto Blue Jays

 

Age: 22 | 5-11 | 160 pounds

Bats: Right | Throws: Right

 

Previous ranking: Unranked/sleeper

 

Moreno exploded in Double-A to start 2021, hitting a hilarious .373/.441/.651 in 32 games for New Hampshire, before a pitch broke one of his thumbs and kept him out more than two months. He returned for a few games in September in Triple A, then went to the Arizona Fall League and the Venezuelan Winter League, getting another 40 games of reps and raking in both places. Moreno is an incredibly athletic catcher, moving extremely well behind the plate, and has an above-average arm. He’s an above-average defender, handling short hops well and showing great facility to move the glove around, but could easily slide to other positions if the need arose, especially third base. At the plate, Moreno has a short, quick stroke that leads to a lot of contact. He has excellent plate coverage as well, so he doesn’t run many deep counts, at least not yet, and might end up getting most of his on-base percentage from his high batting averages. A premium defender behind the plate who puts the ball in play a ton and has some pop is a potential impact player on both sides of the ball, and his unusual athleticism for the position makes him the type of player you should bet will improve when he needs to.

 

 

44. Orelvis Martinez, SS, Toronto Blue Jays

 

Age: 20 | 6-1 | 188 pounds

Bats: Right | Throws: Right

 

Previous ranking: 98

 

Signed for $3.5 million in 2018, Martinez finally got to make his full-season debut in 2021, hitting .279/.369/.572 in 72 games for Low-A Dunedin, leading the Low-A Southeast League in slugging by 60 points even though Dunedin is a tough park for power hitters. Including a late-season promotion to High-A Vancouver, he hit 28 homers in 98 games, with an acceptable 25 percent strikeout rate, all as a 19-year-old playing the left side of the infield. He’s a fringe runner with a plus arm, already getting too big for shortstop but very likely to end up a solid defender at third base. His value is in his bat, though, as he has excellent bat speed and is short to the ball with plus power already, projecting to 30-plus bombs in the majors. His ultimate value will come down to where he plays and whether he can keep his contact rate up as he faces better pitching, with the potential to be an impact cleanup hitter when he hits his peak years.

 

 

89. Kevin Smith, SS, Toronto Blue Jays

 

Age: 25 | 6-1 | 190 pounds

Bats: Right | Throws: Right

Drafted: No. 129 in 2017

 

Previous ranking: Unranked

 

Smith hit .209/.263/.402 in Double A in 2019 with below-average defense at shortstop, on top of a poor performance in High A the year before, and anyone who’d bet on him reaching the big leagues in the next season probably would have gotten incredible odds on it. He started to rework things at the plate in the middle of that season, continuing it at the alt site in 2020, and it paid off in 2021, as Smith hit .285/.370/.561 in Triple A with a career-best walk rate and big cut in his strikeout rate. He’d made some adjustments in 2019 to try to get to more high fastballs, but it cost him coverage to the rest of the zone, while in 2021 he was back to his previous swing while also working to be more selective early in counts, looking for pitches where he can do damage. He’s also staying quieter at the plate, keeping his head steadier and loading his back hip earlier to get to more power without sacrificing contact. It’s worked, and as a middle infielder who’s an above-average defender at multiple spots and has power, he has a chance to have a long, productive career.

 

 

99. Jordan Groshans, 3B, Toronto Blue Jays

 

Age: 22 | 6-3 | 205 pounds

Bats: Right | Throws: Right

Drafted: No. 12 in 2018

 

Previous ranking: Unranked

 

Groshans had another injury-interrupted season where he performed well when he was able to play, hitting .291/.367/.450 despite jumping two levels to Double A — and that after playing only 23 games in Low A back in 2019. He’s already shown some advanced skills at the plate, from his swing decisions to his ability to drive the ball the other way, with the potential for 20+ homers once he adds a little more strength. Groshans played more shortstop than third base this year, but he’s not a shortstop, and while he might end up a solid-average defender at third, he’s going to have to work on his flexibility and avoid getting too tightly wound as he continues to bulk up. He has a plus arm that will help him at third or, in the worst case scenario, if he has to move to right field. He’s a well-rounded player who does a little of everything but hits with the feel of a player who’s older and has more than the 619 pro plate appearances he has, so he should be a solid-average regular even if he never takes a big leap in power or has to move off the dirt.

[Krylian]

and fans will assume we signed Bobby's son.

 

Maybe we can sign him to a 40 year contract too.

[Krylian]

It’s our own version of Soto!

 

In all seriousness, a $4M price tag for a corner OF on the international market is absurd. Only up the middle and pitchers get that much typically, which means the tools and athleticism for Bonilla must be off the charts for us to commit to that. Even Soto himself got a $1.5M bonus. Exciting to think about!

 

I'm a bigger fan of the 'land one big fish and then sign a bunch of pocket change guys' than 'sign a handful of mid-range guys'...so if they have to up the ante to nab one of the Top 5 talents I'm all for it.

[BlueRocky]

I'm a bigger fan of the 'land one big fish and then sign a bunch of pocket change guys' than 'sign a handful of mid-range guys'...so if they have to up the ante to nab one of the Top 5 talents I'm all for it.

 

I also like landing big fish, we certainly went all-in with Vladdy and it paid off big time. Though I can understand why clubs go quantity over quality for international kids.

 

There’s just no way to project 14 yr olds when they start committing to clubs, their profiles change dramatically in months rather than years. More lotto tickets = higher chance to land the next Moreno & Kirk types. Moreno signed for peanuts at 25,000 and Kirk less than peanuts at 7,500.

[John_Havok]

I also like landing big fish, we certainly went all-in with Vladdy and it paid off big time. Though I can understand why clubs go quantity over quality for international kids.

 

There’s just no way to project 14 yr olds when they start committing to clubs, their profiles change dramatically in months rather than years. More lotto tickets = higher chance to land the next Moreno & Kirk types. Moreno signed for peanuts at 25,000 and Kirk less than peanuts at 7,500.

 

Yeah. it's hard to say exactly which approach is "better" given the spending restrictions, plus you never truly know how invested some teams are in scouting internationally. The Jays have always been very active in that pool, along with several other teams, whereas others just don't seem to allocate any effort or real dollars into it.

 

So I think the Jays really do benefit from the approach of sign 1 big fish, then spread the rest out and try to hit the jackpot. And of course, different years have different talent pools just like the actual amateur draft.

[Ray]

Yeah. it's hard to say exactly which approach is "better" given the spending restrictions, plus you never truly know how invested some teams are in scouting internationally. The Jays have always been very active in that pool, along with several other teams, whereas others just don't seem to allocate any effort or real dollars into it.

 

So I think the Jays really do benefit from the approach of sign 1 big fish, then spread the rest out and try to hit the jackpot. And of course, different years have different talent pools just like the actual amateur draft.

 

The approach, like you said, seems to be to go big and splash for that one IFA that everyone in the org has real conviction in (i.e. Vladdy, Orelvis, Bonilla), and then spread out the remaining allotment amongst some other lottery tickets that the scouts like (i.e. Kirk, Moreno). There were some cases where we spread out the bonus pool relatively evenly amongst a bunch of players. I believe when we signed Miguel Hiraldo, Leo Jimenez, & Eric Pardinho, the strategy there was to spread out the total bonus pool amongst 3 guys they liked.

 

The international market is so hard to gauge though. Generally speaking, the deals are agreed upon years before the signing period, and it's contingent on your area scouts and scouting director having built relationships with the people who run the elite academies that produce these players. For example, in 2017 3 of the top 6 players ranked were Wander Franco, George Valera, & Julio Rodriguez. Could simply have been that we didn't get to those guys fast enough when they were developing, and the Rays/Mariners/Indians just beat us to the punch in identifying those guys before we did. In most cases, you probably have to identify them at 13 or 14, build that relationship with them and their coaches, agree to a signing bonus, and then hope they progress as you projected and into a top prospect before the lists are even released. Kind of crazy to think about. Projecting them at 16 when they're eligible to sign is is hard enough, but in most cases you're probably evaluating them at 12-14 and hoping their meet your projection by the time they're 16.

[Spanky__99]

BA Org Rankings...

 

19

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Toronto Blue Jays

Notes:

2021: 4 | 2020: 6 | 2019: 3 | 2018: 8 | 2017: 20

 

 

Top 100 Prospects (3): C Gabriel Moreno (7), RHP Nate Pearson (62), SS/3B Orelvis Martinez (75)

 

 

The Skinny: While major league acquisitions have thinned Toronto’s farm system, breakout seasons by catcher Gabriel Moreno and shortstops Orelvis Martinez and Otto Lopez softened the blow. The Blue Jays feature a young prospect group, with a majority of their best talent having never played above High-A.

 

1

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Seattle Mariners

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2

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Tampa Bay Rays

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3

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Pittsburgh Pirates

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4

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Baltimore Orioles

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5

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Kansas City Royals

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Detroit Tigers

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7

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Cincinnati Reds

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8

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Los Angeles Dodgers

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Texas Rangers

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10

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Arizona Diamondbacks

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Boston Red Sox

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Cleveland Guardians

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New York Yankees

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Minnesota Twins

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Chicago Cubs

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New York Mets

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San Francisco Giants

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St. Louis Cardinals

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Toronto Blue Jays

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Miami Marlins

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San Diego Padres

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Atlanta Braves

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Philadelphia Phillies

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Colorado Rockies

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Milwaukee Brewers

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Washington Nationals

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Oakland Athletics

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Houston Astros

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Los Angeles Angels

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Chicago White Sox

 

The Rays are always stacked. lol... annoying.

[Brownie19]

Da Fuq?

[wamco]

shhhhhh! Spanky’s sleeping

[jerb]

 

Minor League Baseball

@MiLB

 

This year, the Triple-A season will run from April 5 to Sept. 28!

 

It will be the longest campaign for the Minors' highest level since 1964 (154 games).

https://t.co/iWL7rwnsEj

[Ray]

Keith Law's Farm System rankings are out. They are...interesting to say the least:

 

1. Dodgers

2. Mariners

3. Diamondbacks

4. Rays

5. Blue Jays

6. Pirates

7. Royals

8. Guardians

9. Giants

10. Orioles

11. Rangers

12. Tigers

13. Cardinals

14. Marlins

15. Padres

16. Cubs

17. Braves

18. Twins

19. Reds

20. Red Sox

21. Mets

22. Yankees

23. Angels

24. Astros

25. Rockies

26. Brewers

27. Nationals

28. Phillies

29. Athletics

30. White Sox

 

Blurb on the Jays

 

5. Toronto Blue Jays

 

Last year: No. 3

 

The Blue Jays have quietly become powerhouses on the international free-agency front, hitting repeatedly on big-dollar signees – current prospects Orelvis Martinez, Miguel Hiraldo and Leo Jimenez, and of course Vladimir Guerrero Jr. – as well as smaller bonus guys like Gabriel Moreno, Sem Robberse and Otto Lopez. They’ve supplemented with some solid drafts, with their first pick from 2020, Austin Martin, since traded to Minnesota to land José Berríos. Their first two picks from 2021, Gunnar Hoglund, who’s coming off Tommy John surgery, and Ricky Tiedemann, who was throwing quite a bit harder in instructs, both look like they’ll be big risers for 2022, as well. There’s quite a bit of position player depth here – Cleveland might be the only team with more depth on the left side of its infield – with its next wave of pitching probably two years off.

[Spanky__99]

Yeah, that's aggressive. Not complaining or anything.

[Grant77]

Yeah, that's aggressive. Not complaining or anything.

 

I haven't seen a list that I think accurately represents our farm system yet. A couple I read have us in the bottom half, which is utterly absurd, but 5 seems too high as well. I have us somewhere around 10, give or take a couple spots.

[Spanky__99]

I haven't seen a list that I think accurately represents our farm system yet. A couple I read have us in the bottom half, which is utterly absurd, but 5 seems too high as well. I have us somewhere around 10, give or take a couple spots.

 

I was thinking more of a mid packish org rank.

[Ray]

He must be much higher on our young international crop than the rest of the industry. Namely,

 

Orelvis Martinez

Estiven Machado

Manuel Beltre,

Leo Jimenez,

Sem Robberse,

Victor Mesia,

Rikelbin de Castro,

 

all of whom have looked good-to-great at the lower levels. He might be expecting them to pop even further.

 

Aggressive ranking for sure, and downright bold to rank us over some other teams. We'll see if it comes to fruition.

[max silver]

He must be much higher on our young international crop than the rest of the industry. Namely,

 

Orelvis Martinez

Estiven Machado

Manuel Beltre,

Leo Jimenez,

Sem Robberse,

Victor Mesia,

Rikelbin de Castro,

 

all of whom have looked good-to-great at the lower levels. He might be expecting them to pop even further.

 

Aggressive ranking for sure, and downright bold to rank us over some other teams. We'll see if it comes to fruition.

 

It feels a little generous to me as well.

 

5. Toronto Blue Jays

 

Last year: No. 3

 

The Blue Jays have quietly become powerhouses on the international free-agency front, hitting repeatedly on big-dollar signees – current prospects Orelvis Martinez, Miguel Hiraldo and Leo Jimenez, and of course Vladimir Guerrero Jr. – as well as smaller bonus guys like Gabriel Moreno, Sem Robberse and Otto Lopez. They’ve supplemented with some solid drafts, with their first pick from 2020, Austin Martin, since traded to Minnesota to land José Berríos. Their first two picks from 2021, Gunnar Hoglund, who’s coming off Tommy John surgery, and Ricky Tiedemann, who was throwing quite a bit harder in instructs, both look like they’ll be big risers for 2022, as well. There’s quite a bit of position player depth here – Cleveland might be the only team with more depth on the left side of its infield – with its next wave of pitching probably two years off.

[Jimcanuck]

I don't pay much attention to Keith Law

[FantasyNewb]

I'm in a league where I have to protect 1 of the following: Emerson Hancock, Luis Matos, Gonsolin, or Christian Javier. I'm leaning towards Hancock but I'm not good at ranking players of this caliber.

[Spanky__99]

I'm in a league where I have to protect 1 of the following: Emerson Hancock, Luis Matos, Gonsolin, or Christian Javier. I'm leaning towards Hancock but I'm not good at ranking players of this caliber.

 

Hancock or Javier, their all good. You're up in our draft.

[Grant77]

I was thinking more of a mid packish org rank.

 

4 or 5 top 100 guys and a stronger than average group outside of the top 100 seems to be the consensus. That's pushing top 10.

[FantasyNewb]

Hancock or Javier, their all good. You're up in our draft.

 

Thanks. Pick made in the draft. Not sure how I did as I'm not familiar with most of the prospects available.

[Laika]

KL's writeup almost seems to imply that his ranking is being supported by some procedural reasons, and not a strict analysis of the players. Like, he is assuming development and buying into the organization's ability to both develop talent and add talent.

 

I dunno.

 

Thanks Keith!

 

It is very possible that some of the Jays prospects are just significantly underrated at the moment. By everyone except KL.

[Ray]

Some kind soul was nice enough to compile Gabriel Moreno’s AA highlights into a YouTube video:

 

That swing is so compact, yet powerful. Eric Logenhagen was saying he doesn’t see 30+ homer potential in that bat, but with his innate ability to make contact combined with his reported exit velos, I’ll have to disagree with him there.

 

We’re gonna need a “Guess the stat line for Gabriel Moreno” thread before the season starts. I honestly think an .800 OPS is the floor here. He’s objectively chasing some bad pitches in that video, and still driving them lol.

[John_Havok]

"Eric Logenhagen was saying he doesn’t see 30+ homer potential in that bat, but with his innate ability to make contact combined with his reported exit velos, I’ll have to disagree with him there."

 

Well, that innate ability to make contact on bad pitches is what could actually prevent him from getting to the game power at the big league level. If he makes contact on pitches that he shouldn't be swinging at, he's much less likely to hit it for a HR. And when that scouting report gets around the league, he'll see even fewer pitches in the zone. Kinda like Kevin Pillar syndrome - except Moreno does have enough power to mash the mistakes.