Official MiLB/Prospects Thread

[Barkerfan23]

After Bichette graduates

 

How many top 100 prospects would this team have. Pearson and Groshans would make the list. Maybe Pardinho

[Krylian]

After Bichette graduates

 

How many top 100 prospects would this team have. Pearson and Groshans would make the list. Maybe Pardinho

 

Outside chance of Manoah but he's probably just outside of the Top 100 as it stands today.

[Ray]

After Bichette graduates

 

How many top 100 prospects would this team have. Pearson and Groshans would make the list. Maybe Pardinho

 

Only Groshans and Pearson would be Top 100 as of now, but you could make the case that Manoah, Kay, Pardinho, Woods-Richardson, Moreno, and Kirk are right on the cusp of Top 100 lists if not there. Kay and Pardinho were literally Top 100 prospects before the draft guys came in.

[BlueRocky]

From people that know a heck of a lot more about prospects than myself, who has more upside/potential Kirk or Moreno?

 

I know it's early, and lots can change.

 

They both have top 100 prospect potential, Moreno has an edge in upside due to athleticism and more pop in his bat. Kirk has better plate discipline and plate approach, Moreno has superior bat to ball ability.

 

If Kirk develops a bit more power and continues to walk for days he’s a solid MLB catcher. Right now he’s a doubles machine that walks a lot and sees a lot of pitches. Like Alan said, he also has longer track record and already proven in high-A.

 

We jokingly compared Gabriel Moreno to JT Realmuto on a recent podcast ep, but there’s actually some similarities there. There’s a really high ceiling there if he continues to hit.

 

After Bichette graduates

 

How many top 100 prospects would this team have. Pearson and Groshans would make the list. Maybe Pardinho

 

I think by May 2020 we’ll see Nate Pearson, Jordan Groshans, Eric Pardinho, Simeon Woods Richardson, and Alek Manoah on the top 100

 

Guys that are more cusp with a chance to make it are Alejandro Kirk, Gabriel Moreno, Miguel Hiraldo, and Anthony Kay. Orelvis Martinez might also be on this list if he goes on a tear next season. Adam Kloffenstein is also developing nicely.

 

I firmly believe Anthony Kay has solid potential and is currently underrated.

Edited August 13, 2019 by BlueRocky

[43211234]

Really small sample size, but Simeon Woods-Richardson has a 2.74 FIP and 2.77 xFIP in High-A so far. He also has a 11.9 K/9, 3.3 BB/9, and 4.0 H/9

 

as an 18 year old...

 

I'd never noticed before how wonky the HR/FB rates can be the lower minors. SWR has a 0.03 differential from his FIP to xFIP but has a 6.3% HR/FB

 

In A ball with the Mets he had a 2.52 FIP and 2.27 xFIP on a 11.6% HR/FB.

 

It stands to reason that less fly balls would become homers at that level but I didn't realize how large the difference was. The Florida State League average must be around 6.4% but it's 15.3% in the majors this year.

 

 

btw does anyone know where you can find league-wide numbers like this for the minor leagues. Fangraphs has the league aggregator for the major league leaderboards but not the minor league ones. At least as far as I can tell.

[Jonn]

The great thing about SWR is he’s already going to have a 100 inning season under his belt at 18. He’s already in great position to be built up. If he performs he should move quickly despite his age.

 

Will open next season in Dunedin but could very well be in New Hampshire by mid season at 19.

[Laika]

I'd never noticed before how wonky the HR/FB rates can be the lower minors. SWR has a 0.03 differential from his FIP to xFIP but has a 6.3% HR/FB

 

In A ball with the Mets he had a 2.52 FIP and 2.27 xFIP on a 11.6% HR/FB.

 

It stands to reason that less fly balls would become homers at that level but I didn't realize how large the difference was. The Florida State League average must be around 6.4% but it's 15.3% in the majors this year.

btw does anyone know where you can find league-wide numbers like this for the minor leagues. Fangraphs has the league aggregator for the major league leaderboards but not the minor league ones. At least as far as I can tell.

 

I don't know if that stuff is anywhere. On BP you can see some numbers by league, but they are pretty limited.

 

https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/sortable/index.php?cid=3039025

[Olerud363]

Kind of cool ...

 

Kirk = Moreno + 1 year + 60 pounds + 50 walks

 

Moreno .305 15 94

Kirk .320 15 98

 

Both have almost the same number of career plate appearances

[Spanky__99]

I'd never noticed before how wonky the HR/FB rates can be the lower minors. SWR has a 0.03 differential from his FIP to xFIP but has a 6.3% HR/FB

 

In A ball with the Mets he had a 2.52 FIP and 2.27 xFIP on a 11.6% HR/FB.

 

It stands to reason that less fly balls would become homers at that level but I didn't realize how large the difference was. The Florida State League average must be around 6.4% but it's 15.3% in the majors this year.

 

 

btw does anyone know where you can find league-wide numbers like this for the minor leagues. Fangraphs has the league aggregator for the major league leaderboards but not the minor league ones. At least as far as I can tell.

 

Try these...

 

http://www.statcorner.com/index.php

https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/sortable/index.php?cid=1899425

https://www.mlb.com/prospects/stats

[Ray]

Joey Murray: 5IP, 2H, 1ER, 4BB, 8K

 

 

[Orgfiller]

I'm all in on Joey Murray at this point. The strikeouts are for real and that leg kick is wild.

[BlueBaller]

I'm all in on Joey Murray at this point. The strikeouts are for real and that leg kick is wild.

I like the arm action. it looks like it's hidden well and would be hard to locate out of the hand.

[BlueRocky]

https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/kyle-glaser-mlb-prospects-chat-81319/

Jeff D (Alexandria):

 

Hi Kyle, I greatly appreciated your article on College or Pro for HS Pitchers- it was very well done! As far as prospects I usually prefer a high floor over a high ceiling but I wanted to ask you. Who has a higher ceiling between SPs Kay, T Ivey,and Bubic? I feel highest floor is Kay, Bubic then Ivey but ceiling I have no idea. Thank you!

 

Kyle Glaser: Hey Jeff, thanks for the kind words. Kay has the best stuff of the three and he's the farthest along up the minor ladder. He is the highest floor and the highest ceiling. That's why he's spent time in the Top 100 and the others haven't, though they are fine pitching prospects in their own right.

[Boxcar]

After Bichette graduates

 

How many top 100 prospects would this team have. Pearson and Groshans would make the list. Maybe Pardinho

 

Pearson, Groshans, SWR, Pardinho, and I'd argue that Kirk should be

 

For how deep the system is, there were a bevvy of guys who took big steps back: Kevin Smith, Chavez Young, Chad Spanberger, David Paulino, Eric Pardinho (not really his fault), Ryan Noda, Julian Merryweather, Patrick Murphy, etc. Then there's guys who haven't taken the leap forward as we'd hoped, like Otto Lopez, Cal Stevenson, Brock Lundquist, etc.

 

But, conversely, we get Moreno out of nowhere, Joey Murray out of nowhere, Kirk continuing to be the best hitting prospect for catchers and Manoah looks like he was a great pick and Phil Clarke is showing some very positive indicators.

 

Still a good system. People have no issue s***ing on the Jays' FO but you really should appreciate just how amazing they are are acquiring prospect talent. They have to be a top 3 team in this regard. The ability to recognize young talent is nothing short of amazing.

 

I may have been wrong about the Stroman trade. I softened on it already after Stro's disgrace of an exit, and I still think they should have squeezed something else; they had leverage and BVW is a dumn-dumn. However, it appears that they hit the bullseye with Big Sim.

Edited August 14, 2019 by Boxcar

[saskjayfan]

Groshan's had a left foot injury. Did they ever disclose what it was?

[Krylian]

Pearson, Groshans, SWR, Pardinho, and I'd argue that Kirk should be

 

For how deep the system is, there were a bevvy of guys who took big steps back: Kevin Smith, Chavez Young, Chad Spanberger, David Paulino, Eric Pardinho (not really his fault), Ryan Noda, Julian Merryweather, Patrick Murphy, etc. Then there's guys who haven't taken the leap forward as we'd hoped, like Otto Lopez, Cal Stevenson, Brock Lundquist, etc.

 

But, conversely, we get Moreno out of nowhere, Joey Murray out of nowhere, Kirk continuing to be the best hitting prospect for catchers and Manoah looks like he was a great pick and Phil Clarke is showing some very positive indicators.

 

Still a good system. People have no issue s***ing on the Jays' FO but you really should appreciate just how amazing they are are acquiring prospect talent. They have to be a top 3 team in this regard. The ability to recognize young talent is nothing short of amazing.

 

I may have been wrong about the Stroman trade. I softened on it already after Stro's disgrace of an exit, and I still think they should have squeezed something else; they had leverage and BVW is a dumn-dumn. However, it appears that they hit the bullseye with Big Sim.

 

Paulino stepped back so far he got released

[Krylian]

Groshan's had a left foot injury. Did they ever disclose what it was?

 

I believe it was a broken foot

[P2F]

I'm all in on Joey Murray at this point. The strikeouts are for real and that leg kick is wild.

 

s***, man. You and I both. There's still plenty of room on his bandwagon, too!

[Slade]

Groshan's had a left foot injury. Did they ever disclose what it was?

 

Stress fracture in his foot. Seems pretty serious for SS/3B prospect, hopefully it heals well.

[Pendleton]

I'm all in on Joey Murray at this point. The strikeouts are for real and that leg kick is wild.

 

This may be completely ridiculous but the action he gets on his fastball reminds me of Scherzer.

[THANOS]

This may be completely ridiculous but the action he gets on his fastball reminds me of Scherzer.

 

It does kind of remind me of that. Is he a low 90s guy or high 80s?

 

Imagine if we put him through the Driveline program. That "invisiball" with a couple more ticks of velo could be super nasty.

[Orgfiller]

It does kind of remind me of that. Is he a low 90s guy or high 80s?

 

Imagine if we put him through the Driveline program. That "invisiball" with a couple more ticks of velo could be super nasty.

 

It's 88-90 and tops out at 92 I'm pretty sure.

 

Edit: you can see the velocity on the two videos above. On the first the velo reading goes from 90 to 91 and on the second it shifts from 87 to 91.

[Pendleton]

It does kind of remind me of that. Is he a low 90s guy or high 80s?

 

Imagine if we put him through the Driveline program. That "invisiball" with a couple more ticks of velo could be super nasty.

 

I believe Murray works in the high 80s to low 90s with the fastball and Scherzer averages 95, so it's more to do with run I guess.

[Krylian]

It's 88-90 and tops out at 92 I'm pretty sure.

 

Edit: you can see the velocity on the two videos above. On the first the velo reading goes from 90 to 91 and on the second it shifts from 87 to 91.

 

That's the kind of velocity you can't make any mistakes with...invisiball or not.

[Orgfiller]

That's the kind of velocity you can't make any mistakes with...invisiball or not.

 

That's fine, I don't anyone is expecting an ace. Mike Fiers has lived with that velocity in his career with a high spin fastball, and he's about a ~2 win/180 IP starter. I think we'd all be satisfied with that outcome out of an 8th round pick who signed for slot value. Murray's great results are also coming at an good age for prospect status, given that he's 2 years younger than the average in AA, so there's some hope that he can surpass that 2 WAR ceiling.

[Ray]

So Miguel Hiraldo is doing quite well in the Appy league: .313/.357/.505, 131 wRC+

 

Still only 18 years old. 3 years younger than the average player.

[Krylian]

That's fine, I don't anyone is expecting an ace. Mike Fiers has lived with that velocity in his career with a high spin fastball, and he's about a ~2 win/180 IP starter. I think we'd all be satisfied with that outcome out of an 8th round pick who signed for slot value. Murray's great results are also coming at an good age for prospect status, given that he's 2 years younger than the average in AA, so there's some hope that he can surpass that 2 WAR ceiling.

 

I don't want it to come across like I'm s***ing on him or anything...just when I hear stuff like "All in" that sounds like super high expectations to me. He has a marginal fastball (velocity wise), that seems to be very deceptive though...and a good looking curve. The control doesn't appear to be elite if the numbers are to be believed. If he could turn into a Fiers I'd be ecstatic...I just don't think we should be looking for anything special with him. If he can turn into a useful piece that's a huge win.

[Krylian]

So Miguel Hiraldo is doing quite well in the Appy league: .313/.357/.505, 131 wRC+

 

Still only 18 years old. 3 years younger than the average player.

 

Once of the best bats from the 2017 signing class. I think we can dream on him.

[P2F]

I don't want it to come across like I'm s***ing on him or anything...just when I hear stuff like "All in" that sounds like super high expectations to me. He has a marginal fastball (velocity wise), that seems to be very deceptive though...and a good looking curve. The control doesn't appear to be elite if the numbers are to be believed. If he could turn into a Fiers I'd be ecstatic...I just don't think we should be looking for anything special with him. If he can turn into a useful piece that's a huge win.

 

I have him ranked inside the org top 15 right now. Not sure if that'll pass the editorial phase (Radio Scouts group input), but I think we're all sleeping on him. Hopefully this will help get the hype train a-rollin'.

 

I'm all in. I think he can be a #3.

[Boxcar]

I have him ranked inside the org top 15 right now. Not sure if that'll pass the editorial phase (Radio Scouts group input), but I think we're all sleeping on him. Hopefully this will help get the hype train a-rollin'.

 

I'm all in. I think he can be a #3.

 

Lol whenever that happens. I'll try to do my part this week but be warned, El Capitan is #1