Official MiLB/Prospects Thread

[Krylian]

 

[wk680]

so Tellez has a line in 18 games at Buffalo of .323/.427/.645 (1.072 OPS). Is he still part of the discussion ?

[KevinGregg]

so Tellez has a line in 18 games at Buffalo of .323/.427/.645 (1.072 OPS). Is he still part of the discussion ?

 

Well hes putting himself back into the discussion at least. Theres not a ton of room for him now but if he keeps it up through august then I would expect the team to pretty much give Smoak the Russel Martin treatment this september and allow Rowdy to start basically every game at first so we can get a better look at him

[Olerud363]

so Tellez has a line in 18 games at Buffalo of .323/.427/.645 (1.072 OPS). Is he still part of the discussion ?

 

I feel like the best way to answer these questions is to collect the 10 minor league players most like Tellez and show what happened to them.

 

There perhaps needs to be a more sophisticated system, then just matching average minor league performance, as Tellez has had some pretty extreme ups and downs (2016 and 2017).

 

Of course on the other hand maybe the ups and downs may just be random. Maybe a true value .260 .340 .440 minor league hitter, could have a .280 .370 .500 season followed by a .220 .270 .320 season (or whatever it was) just by chance...

 

So I guess to answer your question you need to do the following.

 

1. Compile a list of similar players to Tellez and record their outcomes.

2. Hire a expert sports psychologist and discuss Tellez's 2016 and 2017 seasons in the context of his personal issues and determine whether perhaps 2017 is an outlier caused by distress. Or perhaps 2016 and 2017 are just the extreme outcomes of random variables.

[Jonn]

Well hes putting himself back into the discussion at least. Theres not a ton of room for him now but if he keeps it up through august then I would expect the team to pretty much give Smoak the Russel Martin treatment this september and allow Rowdy to start basically every game at first so we can get a better look at him

 

Smoak is playing for a job somewhere next season. I don’t think he would be cool with that. Still shocked he wasn’t moved out. Expiring deal and Tellez sitting in AAA. Even for just a PTBNL that was s*** shocked hes still here. Galvis made some sense because of the option but Smoak unless they just wanted him the clubhouse with the young players I don’t get it.

[wk680]

I feel like the best way to answer these questions is to collect the 10 minor league players most like Tellez and show what happened to them.

 

There perhaps needs to be a more sophisticated system, then just matching average minor league performance, as Tellez has had some pretty extreme ups and downs (2016 and 2017).

 

Of course on the other hand maybe the ups and downs may just be random. Maybe a true value .260 .340 .440 minor league hitter, could have a .280 .370 .500 season followed by a .220 .270 .320 season (or whatever it was) just by chance...

 

So I guess to answer your question you need to do the following.

 

1. Compile a list of similar players to Tellez and record their outcomes.

2. Hire a expert sports psychologist and discuss Tellez's 2016 and 2017 seasons in the context of his personal issues and determine whether perhaps 2017 is an outlier caused by distress. Or perhaps 2016 and 2017 are just the extreme outcomes of random variables.

 

There is an 'intangible' factor that you can't account for in the calculations - as you also suggest. Ultimately, it only matters what a guy does in the SHOW. Tellez hits the ball so hard and reminds me so much of Ortiz - I have a soft spot for the young man. Hopefully, the Jays are not to Rowdy as the Twins were to Big Papi (yes that's a long shot but not impossible).

[glory]

Smoak is playing for a job somewhere next season. I don’t think he would be cool with that. Still shocked he wasn’t moved out. Expiring deal and Tellez sitting in AAA. Even for just a PTBNL that was s*** shocked hes still here. Galvis made some sense because of the option but Smoak unless they just wanted him the clubhouse with the young players I don’t get it.

 

Yeah I'm surprised they held on to him. He's playing for a contract next year so benching him like they did Martin would hurt him. Best bet might be to DFA him and hope a team picks him up for the final month or two. I just don't see any reason for the Jays keeping him, even for vetrin presents.

[wk680]

Yeah I'm surprised they held on to him. He's playing for a contract next year so benching him like they did Martin would hurt him. Best bet might be to DFA him and hope a team picks him up for the final month or two. I just don't see any reason for the Jays keeping him, even for vetrin presents.

 

It is "vetrin presenz"

[Slade]

Yeah I'm surprised they held on to him. He's playing for a contract next year so benching him like they did Martin would hurt him. Best bet might be to DFA him and hope a team picks him up for the final month or two. I just don't see any reason for the Jays keeping him, even for vetrin presents.

 

It sucks this year with one trade deadline cause Galvis and Smoak would have certainly been August deals.

[Abomination]

I wouldn't be shocked to see them extend Smoak.

[Deadpool]

I wouldn't be shocked to see them extend Smoak.

 

I hope that happens, he won't be expensive, and I'd take him 10/10 times over Tellez at first.

[Barkerfan23]

Tellez strikes out way too much to be a good hitter. We saw Sandiego trade a Dh with 120 arc for very little

[Slade]

 

[glory]

Espinal is Rule 5 eligible this winter. Same with Wall. Will be interesting to see what the Jays do. I expect to see some 40 man roster clean up.

[Slade]

BA revised top 30, really just Kay and SWR slotting in at 7-8 and pushing everyone else down.

 

1. Bo Bichette, SS

 

A broken left hand slowed Bichette's ascent, but he has been back since June and continues to show why he's one of the game's elite prospects. He has excellent bat speed, a knack for finding the barrel and has shown he can stick at shortstop where he has quick feet and good body control.

 

2. Nate Pearson, RHP

 

Pearson's pure stuff ranks among the best in the minors, with a fastball that sits in the upper-90s and consistently reaches triple-digits, complemented by a swing-and-miss slider in the upper-80s. The caveat with Pearson is his workload—during the first half of the season every other start, the Blue Jays limited him to two innings—but if Pearson proves durable enough to handle a starter's workload, he could anchor the front of a rotation.

 

3. Jordan Groshans, SS

 

Groshans hasn't played since May 13 due to a foot injury. It's been otherwise all arrows up for Groshans since signing as the 12th overall pick in last year's draft, with Groshans showing an impressive combination of hitting ability and power.

 

4. Eric Pardinho, RHP

 

A sore right elbow prevented Pardinho from pitching until June 26, but his mix of stuff and feel for pitching remain well beyond his years, with Pardinho already in low Class A Lansing as an 18-year-old.

 

5. Alek Manoah, RHP

 

After getting a good return on an extra-large, power-armed first-round pick in Pearson, the Blue Jays went even bigger with another hard-throwing first-round pick this year, drafting the 6-foot-7, 275-pound Manoah at No. 11 overall. Manoah pairs a mid-to-upper 90s fastball with a hard slider that has plus potential.

 

6. Alejandro Kirk, C

 

Kirk is a polarizing prospect among scouts. Some are quickly turned off by his body type, but Kirk has improved defensively and he's a natural hitter with good plate discipline and excellent hand-eye coordination.

 

7. Anthony Kay, LHP

 

A strong-bodied lefty with arm strength and a three-pitch mix, Kay dominated Double-A competition and reached Triple-A in June. That promotion proved he still had work to do before a callup, which could come this season.

 

8. Simeon Woods-Richardson, RHP

 

The 2018 second-rounder out of high school has premium stuff and mound demeanor to spare. Still just 18, he had carved up South Atlantic League competition but had fallen victim to shaky defense. Better days are ahead.

 

9. Gabriel Moreno, C

 

An athletic catcher with great bat-to-ball skills, Moreno started to show a little bit more power last year and has continued that upward trend this year with low Class A Lansing.

 

10. Sean Reid-Foley, RHP

 

The 2019 season has been a struggle for Reid-Foley, the latest in a career of zigs and zags for a pitcher who has shown promising stuff but has often battled fastball command. Those control troubles have continued to hurt Reid-Foley this season.

 

11. Miguel Hiraldo, SS

 

Hiraldo earned praise from scouts as an amateur as one of the top hitters in the 2017 international signing class, a reputation he lived up to last year and has continued to show this year in the Rookie-level Appalachian League.

 

12. Orelvis Martinez, 3B

 

Martinez signed with the Blue Jays last year for $3.51 million, the highest bonus for a 16-year-old international signing in the 2018 class. Making his pro debut in the Rookie-level Gulf Coast League, Martinez projects as a strong, physical player whose offensive tools are ahead of his defense, with Martinez likely to play third base.

 

13. Adam Kloffenstein, RHP

 

14. Griffin Conine, OF

 

15. Kendall Williams, RHP

 

16. Patrick Murphy, RHP

 

17. Anthony Alford, OF

 

18. Leonardo Jimenez, SS

 

19. Dasan Brown, OF

 

20. Kevin Smith, SS

 

21. Will Robertson, OF

 

22. Hector Perez, RHP

 

23. Yennsy Diaz, RHP

 

24. TJ Zeuch, RHP

 

25. Reese McGuire, C

 

26. Alberto Rodriguez, OF

 

27. Jhon Solarte, OF

 

28. Javier D'Orazio, C

 

29. Joey Murray, RHP

 

30. Ryan Noda, OF/1B

[Jimcanuck]

SWR should be higher.

 

He's basically where Big Nate was, this time last year.

[Dr. Dinger]

I would have SWR ahead of Kay, Kirk, and probably Pardinho and Manoah.

[Krylian]

I would have SWR ahead of Kay, Kirk, and probably Pardinho and Manoah.

 

I say by this time next season he's 3-4.

[Jonn]

Looks like the SWR circle jerk has began.

[Barkerfan23]

Released alec Hanson

 

He was acquired in the Pillar trade

[Krylian]

Looks like the SWR circle jerk has began.

 

Try not to be in the middle of the circle.

[Grant77]

People are very enamoured with our shiny new object. There is still a huge amount of risk that comes with any 18 year old pitcher in A ball, with both performance and injury. I think it's justifiable to have the position players and older pitchers with better velocity/stuff ahead of him for that reason.

[Daniel Labude]

SWR I think should fit in behind Manoah. SWR is similar imo rank wise as to Pardinho. He has better strikeout ability, but less command and control of his pitches

[Orgfiller]

SWR I think should fit in behind Manoah. SWR is similar imo rank wise as to Pardinho. He has better strikeout ability, but less command and control of his pitches

 

Less command and control of his pitches? SWR has fewer walks than Pardinho in more professional innings and at more advanced levels. This is an outlandish take unless you can somehow prove it.

[Daniel Labude]

Less command and control of his pitches? SWR has fewer walks than Pardinho in more professional innings and at more advanced levels. This is an outlandish take unless you can somehow prove it.

 

Not really. WHIP is higher. Given the walks difference that means he is over the plate too much imo

[Orgfiller]

Not really. WHIP is higher. Given the walks difference that means he is over the plate too much imo

 

WHIP in the minor leagues is completely irrelevant, the walks should tell you all you need to know. Minor league defenses are terrible, and it's been reported that Woods-Richardson in particular has suffered from very bad defense behind him.

[Daniel Labude]

WHIP in the minor leagues is completely irrelevant, the walks should tell you all you need to know. Minor league defenses are terrible, and it's been reported that Woods-Richardson in particular has suffered from very bad defense behind him.

 

Sure...still doesnt change the fact that he supposedly has better stuff, yet is giving up more contact...command imo. Both should be above average...right now I'd say Pardinho is better at it. That's my opinion and defense backing it up

[Grant77]

Less command and control of his pitches? SWR has fewer walks than Pardinho in more professional innings and at more advanced levels. This is an outlandish take unless you can somehow prove it.

 

I can't comment on SWR too much, but Pardinho has a textbook delivery that is repeatable and should lead to excellent command as he progresses through the system. I can't recall seeing many 18 year old pitchers with such consistent command and mid 90's velo. I think that his ranking is justified.

[Orgfiller]

Sure...still doesnt change the fact that he supposedly has better stuff, yet is giving up more contact...command imo. Both should be above average...right now I'd say Pardinho is better at it. That's my opinion and defense backing it up

 

How on earth is he giving up more contact with a better strikeout rate?

[Captain Adama]

Sure...still doesnt change the fact that he supposedly has better stuff, yet is giving up more contact...command imo. Both should be above average...right now I'd say Pardinho is better at it. That's my opinion and defense backing it up

 

What are you talking about? Pardinho not only has a worse walk rate, but a worse K rate as well. He's certainly giving up more contact than SWR.

 

You can say it's your opinion all you want, but you can't have an opinion on a fact.