Official MiLB/Prospects Thread

[Captain Adama]

I think the only keepers are Jansen and Pannone. Maybe Mcguire as well.

 

Can't see anyone taking Pentecost. Greene should probably be traded or moved to the bullpen.

 

Greene is pretty much dead to me at this point IMO.

[Abomination]

This has already been discussed a fair bit on the board previoulsy but I'll say it again, you can very safely expose Tellez. Typically there are two kind of players that get taken in the rule 5. Pitchers that you can bury at the back of your bullpen and developing offensive player that you can use on your bench. Bat only players like Tellez who just take up room on the bench almost never get selected. Bat only players coming off a sub 300 wOBA season definitely do not get selected. If you expose Tellez, you'll get to see what Tellez can do with the family stuff behind him in the minor league system for the Jays not on some other team's active roster.

 

I still strongly believe Tellez will be claimed if we expose him, and I'm really hoping we don't.

[Jimcanuck]

Def keep McGuire. In fact, i can see him being backup C this year. The D is sound and he should hit enough to not be a Thole black hole.

[P2F]

12:41

JaysFan: Edward Olivares seemed hidden in the shadows of Vlad and Bo and friends. How many of his tools will play?

 

 

12:42

Eric A Longenhagen: Aha, yes. I like Olivares. Scouts have concerns about him swinging and missing at upper levels but he’s got a great frame, some natural loft, his bat is quick, chance to stay in CF. He’s a nice prospect.

 

 

12:42

Mario Mendoza: What’s your current projection for Anthony Alford?

 

 

12:42

Eric A Longenhagen: Above average regular. He has monster tools.

[Ray]

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/projecting-the-minor-league-free-agent-hitters-2/

 

Former Blue Jays farmhand Christian Lopes is #1. KATOH really likes him apparently. Projecting him for 2.8 WAR.

[Brownie19]

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/projecting-the-minor-league-free-agent-hitters-2/

 

Former Blue Jays farmhand Christian Lopes is #1. KATOH really likes him apparently. Projecting him for 2.8 WAR.

 

Lopes (1), Ceciliani (9), AJ Jimenez (11) and Jon Berti (24) are all ex. Blue Jays in the top 25.

 

Arismendy Alcantara and John Andreoli are interesting OF names that we could use to fill out AAA and add depth.

[flafson]

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/projecting-the-minor-league-free-agent-hitters-2/

 

Former Blue Jays farmhand Christian Lopes is #1. KATOH really likes him apparently. Projecting him for 2.8 WAR.

 

Does KATOH have any historical stats to supports their theory?

Like, how often are they close to their projections?

[P2F]

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/projecting-the-minor-league-free-agent-hitters-2/

 

Former Blue Jays farmhand Christian Lopes is #1. KATOH really likes him apparently. Projecting him for 2.8 WAR.

 

Willans Astudillo, aka the Man with the Most Interesting Fangraphs Profile in the World (the nickname is a bit of a work in progress), is available. I feel like his elite contact ability (3.9% K rate!) could play in the majors, and it would be wise to give him a chance to play.

 

I also find Michael Reed, Oswaldo Arcia, Cesar Puello, and O'Koyea Dickson interesting to varying degrees.

[TheHurl]

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/projecting-the-minor-league-free-agent-hitters-2/

 

Former Blue Jays farmhand Christian Lopes is #1. KATOH really likes him apparently. Projecting him for 2.8 WAR.

 

Just look at that first page of Minor League free agents. Ackley two years a top 15 prospect, Arismedy Alcantara squeaked in once at 100, Osvaldo Arcia #41, 2 time top 100 prospect Manny Banuelos topping out at 29, Best Control in the minors Blake Beaven. Just on page 1

[jerb]

 

Keegan Matheson‏ Verified account

@KeeganMatheson

 

Here's the link for the AFL Championship Game, featuring #BlueJays prospects T.J. Zeuch, Lourdes Gurriel Jr., and Jonathan Davis. First pitch just after 3 ET.

https://t.co/2E5FKkTrsA

[P2F]

Would someone be so kind as to post this article?

 

https://www.baseballprospectus.com/prospects/article/35273/2018-prospects-chicago-white-sox-top-10-prospects/

[jays4life19]

Would someone be so kind as to post this article?

 

https://www.baseballprospectus.com/prospects/article/35273/2018-prospects-chicago-white-sox-top-10-prospects/

 

Only if you say pretty please.

[P2F]

Only if you say pretty please.

 

You have a BP subscription as well?

[jays4life19]

You have a BP subscription as well?

 

Nah

 

 

1. Eloy Jimenez, OF

DOB: 11/27/1996

Height/Weight: 6’4”, 205 lbs.

Bats/Throws: R/R

Drafted/Acquired: Signed August 2013 out of the Dominican Republic by Chicago for $2.8 million; acquired via trade from the Chicago Cubs.

Previous Ranking(s): #1 (Org – CHC), #14 (Top 101)

2017 Stats: .353/.397/.559, 3 HR, 1 SB in 18 games at Double-A Birmingham; .271/.351/.490, 8 HR, 0 SB in 42 games at High-A Myrtle Beach; .345/.410/.682, 8 HR, 0 SB in 29 games at High-A Winston-Salem

 

The Good: Jimenez is an elite power-hitting corner outfield prospect. That seems pretty good. It’s top-of-the-scale raw, and the power plays to all fields in games. He has the bat speed to let the ball get deep and drive it anywhere in the park. It’s a leveraged power swing, but he isn’t just grip and rip it. He controls the zone well and can read and react to spin. Doesn’t try to yank everything out. Potential plus hitter with 30+ home runs if it all comes together. He has enough arm for right field.

 

The Bad: The swing gets long and unmoored when he is looking for the power stroke. Hit tool may play down to average at maturity due to swing-and-miss. He’s fine in a corner outfield spot but he won’t be much better than average there. He’s a below-average runner at present and may slow down more as he ages and fills out.

 

The Role:

 

OFP 70—All-star corner outfielder

Likely 60—First-division corner outfielder

 

The Risks: We believe he will hit and hit for power. He’s gonna have to since there isn’t much value here outside of the bat.

 

Major league ETA: 2019

 

Ben Carsley’s Fantasy Take: The bad news is Jimenez might only be righty Jay Bruce. The good news is two-fold; he could be J.D. Martinez if it all really clicks, and even if it doesn’t, well he could still be righty Jay Bruce! That OF3/4 floor and OF1 ceiling makes Jimenez one of the 10-best dynasty prospects in the game, and it’s not out of the question he starts getting some playing time in the majors this year. Jimenez might not be destined for instant stardom a la Cody Bellinger or Aaron Judge, but he still looks like a good bet to get there before he’s 23, so…

 

2. Michael Kopech, RHP

DOB: 4/30/1996

Height/Weight: 6’3” 205 lbs.

Bats/Throws: R/R

Drafted/Acquired: Drafted 33rd overall in the 2014 Draft, Mount Pleasant HS (Mount Pleasant, TX); signed for $1.5 million. Acquired via trade from the Boston Red Sox.

Previous Ranking(s): #4 (Org), #32 (Top 101)

2017 Stats: 3.00 ERA, 2.34 DRA, 15 IP, 15 H, 5 BB, 17 K in 3 games at Double-A Birmingham; 2.87 ERA, 3.93 DRA, 119 ⅓ IP, 77 H, 60 BB, 155 K in 22 games at High-A Winston-Salem

 

The Good: Kopech possesses an elite fastball that has explosive, late movement. He can cut it and run it and is equally comfortable working either side of the plate. It sits 95-98 and touches 99. He also has a plus slider that he throws at 84-87 with late, sharp two-plane break. Both pitches get plenty of swings and misses and help put Kopech in the conversation among the best pitching prospects in baseball. He also has a change with similar velocity to the slider that flashes at least average with good depth and fade, but he has not yet been able to throw that pitch with the consistency he needs. While an effective third pitch would be nice, even if that pitch never gets there, the other two are good enough to still make him a frontline starter.

 

The Bad: Concerns about command should be mentioned here, though they are somewhat mitigated by Kopech’s 2017 second half. Command isn’t the only issue, as Kopech misses the zone (not just within it) too often. The hope is that his ability to throw at slightly less than full bore while maintaining elite stuff will aid in strike-throwing. There is also his hyper-competitiveness that can at times cause him to lose focus and/or make some questionable decisions.

 

The Role:

 

OFP 70—No. 2 Starter

Likely 60—No. 3 starter

 

The Risks: The improved command should lessen the reliever risk a bit. If he can’t manage to let go of adversity, he will have trouble getting anywhere near his ceiling. —Scott Delp

 

Major league ETA: Mid-2018

 

Ben Carsley’s Fantasy Take: For my money, Kopech is the best dynasty pitching prospect in baseball. What do we always preach when it comes to pitching prospects? Going for upside and refraining from getting too excited until they’re close to the majors. Well, Kopech has legitimate top-15 SP upside—he’s limited only by what’s likely to be an occasionally gnarly WHIP—and he should be making MLB starts by the Fourth of July. Be patient with Kopech in the early going, but know that we could very well have Chris Archer 2.0 on our hands here.

 

3. Alec Hansen, RHP

DOB: 10/10/1994

Height/Weight: 6’7”, 235 lbs.

Bats/Throws: R/R

Drafted/Acquired: Drafted 49th overall by the White Sox in the 2016 Draft, University of Oklahoma, signed for $1.2845.

Previous Ranking(s): #6 (Org), #97 (Top 101)

2017 Stats: 4.35 ERA, 3.53 DRA, 10 ⅓ IP, 15 H, 3 BB, 17 K in 2 games at Double-A Birmingham; 2.93 ERA, 2.48 DRA, 58 ⅓ IP, 42 H, 25 BB, 82 K in 11 games at High-A Winston-Salem; 2.48 ERA, 3.14 DRA, 72 ⅔ IP, 57 H, 23 BB, 92 K in 13 games at Low-A Kannapolis

 

The Good: His fastball peppers most of the 90s with tremendous plane. He manipulates the pitch very well, especially with natural cut that bores in on lefty hitters. His curve shows two-plane break and can be used as both a chase pitch and spotted for called strikes. He has command of a decent change for the level. He has an ideal workhorse frame, and a relatively clean record of health. It’s easy to see why he was once a candidate for the first-overall pick.

 

The Bad: He was terrible for most of his draft season. He can have typical Big Guy command issues. He’s been on the average-to-older side for his levels, because the White Sox have been cautious in promoting him. The slider is basically just a show-me pitch presently, and the change is going to need to develop, too.

 

The Role:

 

OFP 60—Above-average starting pitcher

Likely 50—No. 4 or late-inning reliever

 

The Risks: I still really can’t explain why he looked and pitched so poorly during the 2016 college season, and that kind of weird unexplained going south doesn’t inspire the greatest confidence. If the slider and change both fail to develop, he could end up a bullpen dude. —Jarrett Seidler

 

Major league ETA: 2019

 

Ben Carsley’s Fantasy Take: For someone who hates pitchers it’s kinda weird how much I love the White Sox’s pitching prospects. I’ll likely be making a case for Hansen to appear in the top-half of our Dynasty 101, because I love the upside and the proximity. I understand that Hansen’s lack of a great third pitch and weird college history give real scouts pause, but I feel like they’ve also helped Hansen become a bit underrated in dynasty league circles. There’s risk here, yes, but the upside as a high-K SP3/4 makes Hansen worth it.

 

4. Dylan Cease, RHP

DOB: 12/28/1997

Height/Weight: 6’2”, 190 lbs.

Bats/Throws: R/R

Drafted/Acquired: Drafted in the 6th round of the 2014 Draft, Milton HS (Milton, GA); signed for $1.5 million. Acquired via trade from the Chicago Cubs

Previous Ranking(s): #7 (Org – CHC)

2017 Stats: 3.89 ERA, 3.48 DRA, 41 ⅔ IP, 35 H, 18 BB, 52 K in 9 games at Low-A Kannapolis; 2.79 ERA, 2.90 DRA, 51 ⅔ IP, 39 H, 26 BB, 74 K in 13 games at Low-A South Bend

 

The Good: The stuff is freaking incredible, some of the very best in the game. He easily sits in the mid-90s with his fastball, can sink and run it with the best of them, and has touched triple-digits in the past. He’s got one of those beautiful, classic overhand hammer curves, which is the second potential out pitch in the profile, plus with a chance for more. The change is a work-in-progress that sometimes comes in too firm but flashes as a third potential plus pitch.

 

The Bad: He’s been handled extraordinarily carefully since 2014 Tommy John surgery, only making his full-season debut this past year. He’s been banged up a lot. He’s yet to throw a hundred innings. There’s some violence in the mechanics. The command isn’t great. The change isn’t consistent.

 

The Role:

 

OFP 60—Good starter or elite reliever

Likely 50—Oft-injured starter or good reliever

 

The Risks: So if you read The Bad, you can probably already guess The Risk: there’s a really good chance Cease just isn’t a starting pitcher. All three of these top White Sox arms have some reliever or blowout risk, but by collecting a bunch of them, plus a bunch of high-upside arms we’ll talk about later on, they’ve mitigated the overall risk that they won’t get a great pitcher or two from the overall lot pretty substantially.

 

Major league ETA: 2021 — Jarrett Seidler

 

Ben Carsley’s Fantasy Take: What, you didn’t really think I was gonna go praise-heavy for three starters in a row, did you? Cease’s upside is enticing, but that whole The Bad section above makes him a dubious fantasy proposition. Add in that he was a Cub and involved in a high-profile trade, and I feel like Cease is a bit overrated right now. Does he have a case for the Dynasty Top-101? Yes. But for the top-50? No. It’s just too likely he ends up in the bullpen.

 

5. Luis Robert, OF

DOB: 8/3/1997

Height/Weight: 6’3”, 185 lbs.

Bats/Throws: R/R

Drafted/Acquired: Signed May 2017 by the White Sox out of Cuba for $26 million.

Previous Ranking(s): N/A

2017 Stats: N/A

 

The Good, The Bad, and The Ugly: We’re not going to write Luis Robert up like every most other top ten prospect, because we really just can’t. Because of tax purposes, Robert was limited to playing in the Dominican Summer League after signing. Our tentacles make it into most areas of pro baseball given the size and scope of our team and their contacts, but as we’ve occasionally noted in the past, foreign complex leagues are a terrible and inescapable blind spot for us. Unlike some previous high-profile Cuban defectors like Yoenis Cespedes, Yuli Gurriel, and Jose Abreu, Robert has a very limited track record in international competition; he’s basically never played in senior international competitions. He’s most similar in this regard to Yoan Moncada and Yasiel Puig, but we had multiple stateside looks at those guys before having to rank them.

 

So here’s what I can tell you: Robert obliterated Serie Nacional last winter as an 19-year-old, his third season as a regular. The quality of Cuban’s top professional league has taken a swan dive in recent years, but if you hit .401 with power as an 19-year-old playing against professional men anywhere, that’s a positive sign. Hell, if you’re playing as a 17-year-old in a top level league, that’s a good sign. He had a short stint in the DSL this past summer right around his 20th birthday, and obliterated that league nearly as badly. The entirety of his stateside “professional” experience is a handful of games from the independent Can-Am League in 2016 with a second-tier “Cuban National Team,” with mixed results and reports.

 

The best evidence that we have that Robert is good is that the White Sox are pretty good at this and invested over $50 million and gave up their ability to sign July 2 players to significant bonuses to get their man. But at the core, that’s the same type of appeal to authority that we here at Baseball Prospectus would normally tell you to avoid, so here’s the honest answer: we’re basically just guessing. There’s a little video of Robert after signing and a decent chunk before, and it all generally supports the notion that he’s a premium athlete with a quick bat. Given that, the performance, and the background information, this seems like the lowest he could reasonably rank, but I don’t think it would shock anyone if he’s suddenly the best or second-best prospect in the system once we got some solid pro looks. That would probably be more us getting better information than development of the player.

 

Ben Carsley’s Fantasy Take: Look at these wimps hedging their bets. As a future OF2, Robert is exactly the 7th-best dynasty outfield prospect in baseball. He will make exactly three All-Star games, will randomly disappoint in 2023 and will be traded to the Giants in 2025, at which point we’ll note that their pitcher-friendly park hurts his fantasy value. That’s how you make a call.

 

6. Jake Burger, 3B

DOB: 4/10/1996

Height/Weight: 6’2”, 210 lbs.

Bats/Throws: R/R

Drafted/Acquired: Drafted 10th overall in the 2017 Draft, Missouri State University; signed for $3.7 million.

Previous Ranking(s): N/A

2017 Stats: .271/.335/.409, 4 HR, 0 SB in 47 games at Low-A Kannapolis; .154/.353/.462, 1 HR, 0 SB in 4 games at complex-level AZL

 

The Good: Do you know that scene in Revenge of the Sith where Palpatine Force-fries Samuel L. Jackson through a window while screaming UNLIMITED POWAAAAAAAAAAAAH? Jake Burger doesn’t have quite that much power, but you’ve got to have a hell of a lot of power to get drafted this high as a right/right likely future first baseman out of college. He’s also got a really quick bat, a strong arm, and deceptive athleticism.

 

The Bad: Were “Jake Burger” the name of this type of player in a movie, you’d think it was too spot-on and corny. He’s a big, beefy baseball player. He might be Baseball Twitter’s next “large adult son.” It’s hard to see him staying at third base, and with a trip over to first or DH, the hitting requirements get a ton higher.

 

The Role:

 

OFP 55—First-division first baseman who can be stretched to third

Likely 50—League-average first baseman

 

The Risks: He might not hit enough to warrant regular playing time at first. The body could go south and impact the hitting profile. A weirdly high number of first base prospects just don’t hit, if he ends up being a first base prospect sooner rather than later. —Jarrett Seidler

 

Major league ETA: 2019-2020

Ben Carsley’s Fantasy Take: So it sounds like best-case he’s a righty Travis Shaw, and worst-case he’s [cracks fingers, rolls neck] … CJ Cron? That makes him rosterable in leagues with 125-150 prospects, but those of you in more restrictive leagues don’t need to go crazy yet.

 

7. Dane Dunning, RHP

DOB: 12/20/1994

Height/Weight: 6’4”, 200 lbs.

Bats/Throws: R/R

Drafted/Acquired: Drafted 29th overall in the 2016 draft, University of Florida, signed for $2 million. Acquired via trade from the Washington Nationals.

Previous Ranking(s): #10 (Org)

2017 Stats: 3.51 ERA, 2.68 DRA, 118 IP, 114 H, 36 BB, 118 K in 22 games at High-A Winston-Salem; 0.35 ERA, 1.13 DRA, 26 IP, 13 H, 2 BB, 33 K in 4 games at Low-A Kannapolis

 

The Good: Dunning is a pedigreed product from the University of Florida who has put up impressive numbers as a professional. His repertoire is led by a plus one-two punch: Both his fastball and slider are grade 60 pitches that can miss bats. Out of the rotation, his heater sits 92-95 (t96) with late arm-side run and plane that helps induce swings and misses, and in a pen look, the fastball could play to 70 with an added tick and command improvement. His slider (84-86) has heavy vertical drop that is a weapon against both right- and left-handed hitters. Currently, he controls the pitch better than he commands it, able to drop it in for strikes, but more effectively starting the pitch in the zone to pick up swings-and-misses as it plummets out of the zone. This one-two combo gives Dunning a high floor likely to land on a major league roster. If he brings the changeup along, he could reach his mid-rotation ceiling.

 

The Bad: To stay in the rotation, Dunning has two significant developmental hurdles to overcome: first, his changeup is below-average at present—a pitch High-A hitters were able to lay off of, that Dunning does not currently throw with great frequency or confidence. Facing Low-A and High-A hitters, Dunning amassed impressive strikeout rates on the strength of his two plus pitches, and he could find a spot in the back of a rotation as a mostly two-pitch guy with the occasional change dropped in. To do so, Dunning will have to scale the second hurdle—improved fastball command. The life and velocity of the pitch are impressive, but subpar command leads the pitch to play down to 60 not up to 70, although I think it is a future 70 pitch out of the pen, Dunning’s most likely landing spot.

 

The Role:

 

OFP 55—Mid-rotation starter

Realistic 50—8th/9th inning leverage reliever

 

The Risks: Not much really. Dunning has a sturdy 6-foot-4, 200-pound frame and is physically mature. His fastball-slider combo is close to big league ready, good enough for him to see late 2018 action out of the pen should the need arise. The risk profile goes up if you are banking on a starter, since the change-up has a ways to go. —John Eshleman

 

Major league ETA: Early 2019

 

Ben Carsley’s Fantasy Take: It’s good that Dunning has a relatively safe profile for a pitcher, but that’s like having a relatively good chance of not blacking out after your third margarita. Maybe you wake up fine, but a) you probably won’t and even if you do, you spent $40 on margaritas? He’s probably a top-150ish guy at this point, but no more.

 

8. Blake Rutherford, OF

DOB: 5/2/1997

Height/Weight: 6’3’’, 195 lbs.

Bats/Throws: L/R

Drafted/Acquired: Drafted 18th overall in the 2016 Draft, Chaminade College Preparatory School (West Hills, CA); signed for $3.28 million. Acquired via trade from the New York Yankees.

Previous Ranking(s): #4 (Org – NYY), #49 (Top 101)

2017 Stats: .213/.289/.254, 0 HR, 1 SB in 30 games at Low-A Kannapolis; .281/.342/.391, 2 HR, 9 SB in 71 games at Low-A Charleston

 

The Good: Despite being 20 years old, Rutherford has an advanced feel for the barrel and approach at the plate. He doesn’t try to do too much with pitches on either side of the hittable zone as he’s capable of spraying the ball all over the field. The swing is smooth and compact, so I expect him to hit for quality doubles power when he reaches his physical peak. Speaking of physicality, Rutherford’s body still has room to grow and there should be more raw power coming in the next few years. He’s athletic enough to play all three outfield spots right now, so he’s not just relying on his hit tool to make an impact. The White Sox gave away three major leaguers to get the former Yankees 2016 first-round pick under team control and he’s got the natural ability to prove that decision wise. He’s got tools to affect every part of the game, we all just have to wait for him to hone his potential as he matures in the lower levels of the White Sox system.

 

The Bad: Having five solid tools is nice, but nothing about Rutherford screams “high-impact player” at this point in time. While I’m confident the hit tool will become above-average, the power production is a bit concerning right now. He looks better launching the ball in batting practice than in games as you can see from his just five career homers over the course of a year-and-a-half of professional baseball. His body is projectable, but he’s inconsistent getting leverage on the barrel, keeping the bathead rather straight through the zone. This helps Rutherford cover the plate and avoid the strikeout, but it also means that he likely won’t produce enough power as a corner outfielder to justify an all-star spot. Once the body matures, he’s more likely to shift off of center field, which will put even more pressure on hit tool to be elite, which is not so likely. Rutherford feels more like a solid starter than a multi-time all-star when looking at his profile long-term.

 

The Role:

 

OFP 55—Above-average starter

Role 50—Major-league regular

 

The Risks: Not so risky in the way that many highly drafted high school outfielders are; the downside actually stems from his lack of a standout tool. Plus, his struggles for lifting the ball concerns me as a likely corner outfielder. —Greg Goldstein

 

Major league ETA: 2019

 

Ben Carsley’s Fantasy Take: You know how Alex Verdugo has slowly but surely climbed the dynasty ranks over the past three years? That’s what you’ve got to hope for with Rutherford, because a ceiling as an OF4/5 won’t win you a ton of dynasty admirers when you’re still about two seasons away.

 

9. Zack Collins, C

DOB: 2/6/1995

Height/Weight: 6’3”, 220 lbs.

Bats/Throws: L/R

Drafted/Acquired: Drafted 10th overall in the 2016 draft, University of Miami; signed for $3.3806

Previous Ranking(s): #5 (Org), #89 (Top 101)

2017 Stats: .235/.422/.471, 2 HR, 0 SB in 12 games at Double-A Birmingham; .223/.365/.443, 17 HR, 0 SB in 101 games at High-A Winston-Salem

 

The Good: This is the era of launch angle and Three True Outcomes and Collins is very much a prospect of his time. We will get to the bad outcome below, but as for the good ones, Collins has plus raw pop and a patient approach that should allow him to get to most of it in games. That same approach should garner enough walks to buoy a below-average hit tool into league average on-base percentages. That plus 20 home runs from a backstop is a very nice offensive profile. And he might be a catcher, although…

 

The Bad: …Collins is still a work in progress behind the plate. He’s presently below average at just about every aspect of defense there. He’s stiff moving side to side, doesn’t receive well, and his average arm strength plays to a tick below due to inconsistencies in the release. Collins goes for pull-side power over contact, and it’s a long swing with a hitch that should lead to big strikeout totals and low batting averages. He runs like a catcher.

 

The Role:

 

OFP 55—The last of the bat-first starting catchers

Likely 45—Some sort of 1B/C/DH hodgepodge with enough pop to be useful

 

The Risks: There’s a decent chance he doesn’t stick at catcher, and I don’t know if he is a better first base prospect than his fellow 2016 draftee Matt Thaiss. It would give Ben a chance to comp him to CJ Cron though.

 

Major league ETA: Late 2019

 

Ben Carsley’s Fantasy Take: I have never been as big a fan of Collins as Bret has been. It’s true that Collins doesn’t need to be a good catcher to have a ton of fantasy value—he just needs to be good enough to retain catcher eligibility. I’m not sure he’ll get there, though, and even if he does, unless you’re playing in an OBP league, Collins looks to be a two-trick pony (HR and RBI) in dynasty leagues. He’s only a borderline top-101 guy for me at this point, but when I we average my grade with Bret’s he’ll probably end up in the top-75.

 

10. Carson Fulmer, RHP

DOB: 12/13/1993

Height/Weight: 6’0”, 195 lbs.

Bats/Throws: R/R

Drafted/Acquired: Drafted 8th overall in the 2015 Draft, Vanderbilt University; signed for $3.4706

Previous Ranking(s): #7 (Org)

2017 Stats: 3.86 ERA, 5.97 DRA, 23 ⅓ IP, 16 H, 13 BB, 19 K in 7 games at the major league level; 5.79 ERA, 5.77 DRA, 126 IP, 132 H, 65 BB, 96 K in 25 games at Triple-A Charlotte

 

The Good: Fulmer is one of those guys with The Good Stuff™. His fastball generally ranges from 91-95 as a starter, but mostly works at the upper end of that band and it has explosive arm-side movement. At its best he can dominate with just that pitch. Fulmer’s cutter can touch the low-90s and is a potential 7 with hard slider depth when it’s on. He also has an above-average curve that sits in the low-80s with tight 12-6 action. That’s three above-average or better pitches.

 

The Bad: The changeup isn’t much to write home about, leaving him overly dependent on throwing fastballs at the front hip of major-league lefties. The curve and cutter don’t seem as tight in the middle innings. The command profile is below-average, and he struggles to throw enough strikes. He’s a shorter, stockier righty with some effort in the delivery, so it all looks like a late-inning reliever on the bump.

 

The Role:

 

OFP 55—Bounces between the eighth and ninth inning

Likely 45—Inefficient back-end starter or 7th/8th inning guy

 

The Risks: Low. Fulmer has major-league stuff and is ready for a major-league role now.

 

Major league ETA: Debuted in 2016

 

Ben Carsley’s Fantasy Take: [speaks with lawyer about The Good Stuff copyright trademark infringement] But also,

 

 

 

 

The Next Ten (in alphabetical order):

 

Spencer Adams, RHP, Double-A Birmingham

One day Spencer Adams will mature and grow more muscle right? Back in 2014, Adams was a lean, wiry Georgia righty with a big arm, a swing-and-miss slider, and advanced command for a high schooler. Now in 2017, Adams is a lean, wiry righty who hails from the state of Georgia with an average fastball, a good slider, and the same projection that was offered back then. At this point you don’t know if the projection will ever come, but he has still shown durability and strike-throwing ability despite it. The profile will be of a back-end starter if he gets there, but he needs to improve his below-average changeup, and find more swings and misses before he can settle into that paycheck. —Steve Givarz

 

Micker Adolfo, OF, Low-A Kannapolis

I’ve made this comp before, but if Tim Tebow had been drafted into baseball out of high school, he probably would be on about the same track as Micker Adolfo. Adolfo is a chiseled monster among men, just starting to evolve into a baseball player. He’s got huge raw power that started transferring into games this year. He had a much better idea of what pitches to swing at this year, granted that there’s still enormous swing-and-miss in the profile. The hit tool advanced, too. There’s still a mile to go between here and the majors, but Adolfo made real progress in 2017. —Jarrett Seidler

 

Luis Alexander Basabe, OF, High-A Winston-Salem

Our intrepid editor pegged Basabe to make the jump into the 101 this year. Craig did note that Basabe would have to “refine his approach” and that didn’t really happen in 2017. He continued to look raw at the plate and flail at spin, while flashing the above-average athletic tools that made him a Top Ten prospect in this system last year. He’s not all that far off that mark again this year, and the above-average regular upside still remains, but eventually the raw tools are going to have to play at the plate more if he is going to be anything more than an up-and-down, athletic extra outfielder.

 

Zack Burdi, RHP, Triple-A Charlotte

Burdi was on his way to making the White Sox pen at some point in 2017 before being felled by a torn UCL. Relievers tend to come back a little bit faster from that surgery than starters, but the flame-throwing righty should miss most of the 2018 season for recovery and rehab. The good news is he is major-league-ready with an upper-90s fastball that moves and a plus-plus upper-80s slider that’s unhittable when he’s on top of it. Relief prospects (especially ones that literally just had major elbow surgery) can be a tough sell for these lists, but Burdi has closer stuff. That helps.

 

Ian Clarkin, LHP, High-A Winston-Salem

Clarkin was healthy by his standards in 2017, but still has yet to log 100 innings in a season as a professional after missing a month this Summer with a strained oblique. He’s an athletic lefty with three potentially average pitches. Leaving the Yankees system—who tend to get a lot out of this profile—isn’t as big a deal as you might think, since the White Sox tend to keep this kind of guy healthy. But Clarkin will need to find something that projects to miss major league bats or he will be limited to a generic swingman type even if he sticks on the mound for all of 2018.

 

Casey Gillaspie, 1B, Triple-A Charlotte

A former first-rounder, Gillaspie didn’t fare too well in Triple-A with Tampa or Chicago this past season. He has the power from both sides, can work counts, but isn’t much to write about defensively. This year’s go-round saw his approach get more exposed, then getting sent to Chicago for Dan Jennings. With Jose Abreu entrenched at first base, it is hard to see Gillaspie getting much playing time going forward. This kind of profile, a three-true-outcome first baseman, doesn’t have much wiggle room and could end up more Quad-A masher than everyday player. —Steve Givarz

 

Jake Peter, UTIL, Triple-A Charlotte

Peter spent another year bouncing between Double-A and Triple-A, playing all over the diamond, and basically having the Jake Peter season. In a bit of a twist though, he socked nine home runs in 45 International League games after hitting just eleven total in his first three professional seasons. This may be a sample size blip of course—and Peter’s profile has always been more “scrappy utility type” than “future Brian Dozier”—but even if that is the case, he’s pretty much major league ready and a reasonable bench upgrade for a team that gave an awful lot of at-bats to Tyler Saladino and Alen Hanson last season. And hey, Brian Dozier’s profile was never “future Brian Dozier” either.

 

A.J. Puckett, RHP, High-A Winston-Salem

Acquired in a deal that sent Melky Cabrera to the Royals, Puckett represents a solid, but unspectacular starting pitching prospect. There’s little concern that the 22-year-old right-hander will stick in the rotation as he has the size and ability to keep his stuff deep into starts. However, the arsenal doesn’t project him as becoming anymore than a back-end starter at his peak. His main weapon is a legitimate plus changeup, especially when he uses it off the fastball. He shows great feel for it and produces quality fade, which allows the pitch to act as an above-average putaway offering. He sits 91-92, which doesn’t help him miss a ton of bats (164 K in 194 ⅓ IP for his career). The curveball is only fringy at best, too, so Puckett relies on above-average command to keep hitters from doing serious damage. Coming off a solid High-A campaign, Puckett fits in just behind the likes of Kopech, Hansen, and Dunning because he lacks flashy stuff, but he does have enough command and pitchability to elevate his mediocre arsenal to a likely inning-eating number five role in a rotation.—Greg Goldstein

 

Gavin Sheets, 1B, Low-A Kannapolis

Sheets completes the trio of likely power hitting corner infielders at the top of the White Sox system (see Burger and Collins). Standing 6-foot-4, 230 pounds, Sheets’ plus raw power is his primary draw. Like most power hitters, Sheets uses a lot of leverage to help lift the baseball, and particularly uses his body well to turn on pitches on the inner half. However, his swing does come with a fair amount of holes as Sheets isn’t as efficient as he needs to be in getting to a solid load position. His long swing path leaves little room for error as well. In addition, the bat speed isn’t as fast as you think given his size, which won’t help negate his longer stroke when he faces better velo. The defense is fine, he just needs to tighten the swing enough to let the power play as a home run reliant first baseman down the line. Sheets has an advanced approach given his age and level, which should allow him to become a solid three outcomes first baseman who could start regularly if he addresses some of the mechanical flaws in his swing. —Greg Goldstein

 

Yeyson Yrizarri, IF, High-A Winston-Salem

A former top international signing, Yrizarri was acquired from Texas for a boatload of 2017-2018 international bonus money the White Sox couldn’t functionally use because of the Luis Robert penalty, and he remains basically the same player we wrote up last year. In his case, that’s distinctly not good, because he’s going to have to develop some fundamental understanding of the strike zone to let his natural hitting tools play out in concert with his strong multi-positional defensive potential. He’s younger than Micker Adolfo, who did start to figure it out at the dish from a similar position in 2017, so there’s hope for more than just a defense-first utility dude here, but time is not infinite and Yrizarri’s career could go a lot of different ways in 2018. Given his incredible arm strength and overall athleticism, if he can’t hack it at the plate, there might be pretty good fallback potential on the mound here. —Jarrett Seidler

 

Friends in low places

Kade McClure, RHP, Low-A Kannapolis

The White Sox sixth-rounder this past year, McClure wasn’t talked about a lot this spring, but is a legitimate candidate for this honor. Standing 6-foot-7, 230 pounds, McClure looks the part of an innings eater and proved it at Louisville, throwing 103 innings his junior year. Hence the White Sox being cautious with him this season, only appearing in 10 game, throwing 11 innings. While the fastball velocity is just average, I projected it to above-average earlier this year based on improved weight gains and the simplicity of his delivery. The slider might be slurvy, but it has proven to be effective and has shown confidence throwing it in any count to any batter. The most likely outcome here is a back-end starter, but those aren’t nothing, and this kind of profile can sneak up on you before you know it. —Steve Givarz

 

***

 

A second opinion: Michael Kopech is the White Sox top prospect

 

It is not a knock on Eloy Jimenez when I say that I think Kopech is the Sox’ top prospect. I saw Eloy in a series soon after he was promoted to Double-A and I saw the advanced pitchers in the Southern League able to keep him on the defensive. In 20 at-bats, he had just one extra-base hit and that was a double that came on a ground ball that hit the third base bag. I never really saw the plus-plus game power showing itself.

 

I do like Jimenez a lot. The hit tool is impressive for such a young hitter. He was almost never fooled or off balance. He has an especially effective two-strike approach where he spreads out and looks to stay back and see the ball deep. Two of his four hits in the series I saw were with two strikes, but that is my “concern.” Pitchers made good pitches early in counts to him and he was simply not aggressive as he got behind a bit. He is just an average defender and baserunner so his value has to come from his ability to consistently find his in-game power. Other than a four game series against his former organization where he went 10 for 17 with two homers and two doubles, the rest of his Double-A performance was remarkably similar to what I saw. Lots of great players have adjustment issues at a new level and Jimenez has plenty of time to make the adjustments he needs.

 

Kopech, though, has already made many of his adjustments. We all know about the repertoire. The questions with Kopech have always been about maturity and command. The command question is something Kopech has worked hard to address this season and the results say he’s been quite successful. After altering his delivery at mid-season to keep himself more on line to his target, Kopech went on to walk just 12 batters in his last nine starts, three of which were in Triple-A. He posted an ERA of 1.29 in those nine starts with 71 strikeouts in 56 innings.

 

The maturity questions remain, as Kopech can lose focus when things don’t go the way he’d like. I also saw him taunt an opposing player who hit a ground ball back to him, though he immediately apologized on the field as he realized what he’d done.

 

Both guys are top prospects. These are two of the highest ceilings in the game, but Kopech right now is closer to reaching that elite ceiling than is Eloy. —Scott Delp

 

***

 

Top Talents 25 and Under (born 4/1/1992 or later):

 

Yoan Moncada

Eloy Jimenez

Michael Kopech

Carlos Rodon

Tim Anderson

Lucas Giolito

Reynaldo Lopez

Alec Hansen

Dylan Cease

Luis Robert

This time last year, there were serious questions about Moncada’s hit tool. And while the development of his contact skills will remain the limiting reagent as to whether he is a solid regular, a star, or an MVP candidate, everything else is extremely impressive. In addition to the power and speed appearing as advertised, he also demonstrated patience and a willingness to take close pitches—albeit, to the point where he veered into harmful passivity at times. Even with no improvement, Moncada looks like a major-league regular, and it seems awfully pessimistic to think there’s no improvement left here.

 

The next group of three was difficult to sort—as you can see above, we have an OFP 70 on Jimenez, Kopech boasts potentially overwhelming stuff, while Carlos Rodon topped this list last year and has shown extended flashes of being a number two starter in the majors already. The safety of Jimenez as a bat over arms as a general principle works in his favor, as does the safety of just how good his bat looks in particular. Even if Jimenez hits .280 instead of .300 or hits 25-30 homers a year instead of 40 and winds up at first instead of in the outfield, that’ll still hunt.

 

Kopech and Rodon both bring more risk to the table; the former primarily due to command and control questions and a limited track record, and the latter has added some new health issues to his resume. As far as deciding between the two, all things being equal, the pitcher with major league success would win out, but concern about Rodon’s recent arthroscopic shoulder surgery served as a tiebreaker here. Either way, if a time traveler were to announce that one or both of them were front-end major-league starters as soon as 2018, it would be anything but a surprise. Well, the Kopech and Rodon part. The time traveling thing would be a lot to handle and a strange use of that power.

 

Anderson took a step back on offense and defense in 2017, and it is difficult to know how much to attribute to the toll of his first full major league season combined with the horrific murder of his best friend, or to very real issues with the profile. But even if it won’t always be pretty, Anderson still has the tools to be a solid or maybe a little better major league shortstop.

 

Lopez and Giolito no longer appear to have “front-line starter” as a potential outcome, but they also appear closer to being no. 3 or no. 4 starters than they did at this time last year, which is still a very valuable outcome. Hansen and Cease have the potential to be excellent starters, but they are much farther away from making that a reality and carry more risk than the other arms ahead of them in the organization.

 

Rounding out the top ten with a bang is Luis Robert, a mysterious, premium athlete who has spent the last few years annihilating wildly overmatched competition. Robert certainly has the potential to fly up this list in the next year, as it sounds like there could be an impact center fielder here, but whether he does is anybody’s guess. —Nick Schaefer

[jays4life19]

Okay maybe i do

[P2F]

Lol thank you, sir.

[jays4life19]

Lol thank you, sir.

 

Just PM me if you ever want to read anything from BP or BA and i'll happily send you the articles.

[P2F]

Just PM me if you ever want to read anything from BP or BA and i'll happily send you the articles.

 

You're the goods, baby.

[Captain Adama]

Im gonna go out on a limb here and add Kopech to the overhyped, great stuff, s*** command pile of pitching prospects. Ala Tyler Glasnow, Robert Stephenson and Kyle Crick.

[z3r0s]

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2017/11/quick-hits-intl-market-twins-vizquel-chatwood-nats.html

 

The Blue Jays are the favorites to sign 15-year-old Dominican shortstop Orelvis Martinez, who scouts expect will receive the highest bonus of any player signed in next year’s July 2 international signing market.

 

Not like I've ever heard of him, but I like that we are being aggressive in the international market. How does that play with any potential Otani signing?

[Brownie19]

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2017/11/quick-hits-intl-market-twins-vizquel-chatwood-nats.html

 

The Blue Jays are the favorites to sign 15-year-old Dominican shortstop Orelvis Martinez, who scouts expect will receive the highest bonus of any player signed in next year’s July 2 international signing market.

 

Not like I've ever heard of him, but I like that we are being aggressive in the international market. How does that play with any potential Otani signing?

 

15? Jesus we be buying them young these days. If the Jays signed him, would they assign him to high school FFS?

[baseballsss]

15? Jesus we be buying them young these days. If the Jays signed him, would they assign him to high school FFS?

 

Isn't 15 the same age the Jays signed Delgado at?

 

Edit: It was 16.

[Mikeleelop]

Isn't 15 the same age the Jays signed Delgado at?

 

Edit: It was 16.

 

same for Vlad Jr and many of the latin America FA signings

[Spanky99]

15? Jesus we be buying them young these days. If the Jays signed him, would they assign him to high school FFS?

 

Isn't 15 the same age the Jays signed Delgado at?

 

Edit: It was 16.

 

same for Vlad Jr and many of the latin America FA signings

 

What Mike said, Martinez will be 16 by July 2nd, hence why he's IFA eligible, nothing new here.

[Krylian]

What Mike said, Martinez will be 16 by July 2nd, hence why he's IFA eligible, nothing new here.

 

Correct. This is normal business and has been for decades.

 

Love that the Jays are still being aggressive. Vladdy and Barreto were both top ranked guys under AA. Nice to see that Shatkins are willing to continue that trend. They really have no choice. Developing your own core really is the only way to do it.

[Brownie19]

Right - 16 by the time he signs. That makes sense. Looks like Vlad started playing rookie ball as a 17 year old. What do they do during their age 16 season?

[Spanky99]

Right - 16 by the time he signs. That makes sense. Looks like Vlad started playing rookie ball as a 17 year old. What do they do during their age 16 season?

 

Extended ST and development camp(Dunedin)... other teams play against each other all the time, like exhibition games, nothing is official, so you can't find anything on them till they debut in pro ball.

[P2F]

The league is about to rule on the Braves' signing debacle. It seems like we'll know tomorrow which prospects they are losing.

 

MLB To Meet With Braves Players On Tuesday

 

November 20, 2017 By Ben Badler

 

 

Major League Baseball has informed several Braves prospects that they will meet with them on Tuesday afternoon, according to multiple sources. The players will either meet with league officials in person in the Dominican Republic or be informed of what's happening by phone.

MLB has been investigating the Braves' international signings, with the team expecting to lose multiple players they signed in recent years. While few specifics have come out regarding what rules MLB has determined the Braves violated and what sanctions the team will face, given that MLB has called a meeting with the players for tomorrow, those details should emerge soon.

 

https://www.baseballamerica.com/international/mlb-to-meet-with-braves-players-on-tuesday/#Kp2SuD4gqHk2r3ko.97

[Ray]

Acuna is as good as gone.

[Spanky99]

Acuna is as good as gone.

 

I doubt that very much, I can see them losing Kevin Maitan, Abraham Guttierrez and Ji-Hwan Bae, maybe Christian Pache but unlikely and International penalties on future years, that's pretty harsh in all, their FO f***ed up bigtime.