Sign Marco Estrada to an extension

[gruber92]

2 homeruns

2 ER through six innings. He's not an ace, so how can you spin this outing as a negative? It's really unbelievable.

[Atothe]

2 ER through six innings. He's not an ace, so how can you spin this outing as a negative? It's really unbelievable.

 

bro giving up homeruns is not a good thing, giving two is bad

[Jayzfan79]

He is our #5. he's been good.

[gruber92]

bro giving up homeruns is not a good thing, giving two is bad

 

Obviously, you expect perfection from a pitcher who was originally slated as a long man?

[reedjohnsonfan]

6.67 xFIP

 

Haha. That doesn't mean much. He was okay today. We've seen him pitch better but it wasn't an awful start.

[gbill2004]

Face it. He's a rock hard stud. A boner really...

[JFD]

He was awful today lol.

 

not really awful but he can do better.

[G-Snarls]

He is our #5. he's been good.

 

I'd call Hutch our #5

 

He's who I would skip in a playoff series.

[gbill2004]

Estrada's price just keeps going up. Should have locked him up earlier.

[burlingtonbandit]

Estrada's price just keeps going up. Should have locked him up earlier.

 

More like the chance of him rejecting the QO keeps going up which is great news for the Blue Jays.

[gbill2004]

More like the chance of him rejecting the QO keeps going up which is great news for the Blue Jays.

How does that work if he does?

[BTS]

Estrada's price just keeps going up. Should have locked him up earlier.

 

Letting Estrada walk will be one of the best decisions of the offseason.

[burlingtonbandit]

How does that work if he does?

 

Blue jays get a 1st round comp pick.

[BTS]

More like the chance of him rejecting the QO keeps going up which is great news for the Blue Jays.

 

He won't be offered a QO.

[gbill2004]

Letting Estrada walk will be one of the best decisions of the offseason.

Glad you aren't GM. I'd love to have Estrada back.

[BTS]

More like the chance of him rejecting the QO keeps going up which is great news for the Blue Jays.

 

He won't be offered a QO.

[gbill2004]

He won't be offered a QO.

How do you know this? I'm sure we'd gladly pay Estrada ~15M for one year.

[BTS]

How do you know this? I'm sure we'd gladly pay Estrada ~15M for one year.

 

Because as much as I've criticized this FO, I don't believe they'd spend $15.8M on a guy that anyone reasonable will project to have an ERA well over 4.

[gbill2004]

Because as much as I've criticized this FO, I don't believe they'd spend $15.8M on a guy that anyone reasonable will project to have an ERA well over 4.

On a one year deal I'd hope our FO does this.

[BTS]

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=y&type=1&season=2015&month=0&season1=2000&ind=1&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=20,a

 

Highest FIP-ERA season of the last 15 years. And his xFIP is even worse. Absolutely littered with pitchers who shortly regressed to their peripherals. Hellickson was a FIP-beating darling until he wasn't. So was Cahill. Romero. Fister last year.

 

If you're buying Estrada next year, you have to be counting on one of two things:

- He gives you 30 starts of 4-4.5 ERA ball.

- He improves his skill level randomly at the age of 33.

 

Gambling 16M on his ability to beat peripherals by a full run would be lunacy. I don't think anyone will do it.

[flafson]

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=y&type=1&season=2015&month=0&season1=2000&ind=1&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=20,a

 

Highest FIP-ERA season of the last 15 years. And his xFIP is even worse. Absolutely littered with pitchers who shortly regressed to their peripherals. Hellickson was a FIP-beating darling until he wasn't. So was Cahill. Romero. Fister last year.

 

If you're buying Estrada next year, you have to be counting on one of two things:

- He gives you 30 starts of 4-4.5 ERA ball.

- He improves his skill level randomly at the age of 33.

 

Gambling 16M on his ability to beat peripherals by a full run would be lunacy. I don't think anyone will do it.

 

I'm sure there are going to be quite a few takes for 2-3 years at 20-30M on him which means giving him QO is a good gamble.

[Followthelight]

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=y&type=1&season=2015&month=0&season1=2000&ind=1&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=20,a

 

Highest FIP-ERA season of the last 15 years. And his xFIP is even worse. Absolutely littered with pitchers who shortly regressed to their peripherals. Hellickson was a FIP-beating darling until he wasn't. So was Cahill. Romero. Fister last year.

 

If you're buying Estrada next year, you have to be counting on one of two things:

- He gives you 30 starts of 4-4.5 ERA ball.

- He improves his skill level randomly at the age of 33.

 

Gambling 16M on his ability to beat peripherals by a full run would be lunacy. I don't think anyone will do it.

 

Agree, Estrada has been better then we could hope for us, but no way should we pay 15 mill plus for him going forward.

[Angrioter]

Sign and trade him now that's value is high

[gbill2004]

$16M a year on a multi year deal would be stupid. But for one year it's a no brainer.

[BlueBirdBro]

It's 100% foolish to think someone won't offer Estrada 2+ years, but with a QO attached that likelihood goes down significantly.

[gbill2004]

I'd like to see the Jays sign him to a 2-3 year deal worth $10m per season. Or the QO.

[Dr. Dinger]

Anthopoulos has been godly at negotiating team-friendly contracts (Bautista, Edwin, Yunel, Dickey), I expect he'll probably lock Estrada up to a reasonable 2 + 1 type of deal. I also think JB and EE will re-up for 2 years this offseason.

[93 Jays]

I don't see how 1 good season nets this guy over 15mil per at his age. I wouldn't mind seeing them offer him a deal along the lines we offered Dickey....12-13mil per over 2 years plus an option. Anything over that? No way I'm giving in. Let him walk

[Dr. Dinger]

It's not one good season. Estrada has been a very decent pitcher dating back to 2012, with 2014 being the outlier. He has earned himself a $25M+ contract.

[BTS]

What are some recent FA comps to Estrada?

 

Off the top of my head:

- Jason Vargas pre-2014 (4/32)

- Chris Young pre-2015 (1/700K + bonuses)

- Aaron Harang pre-2015 (1/5)

- Kyle Kendrick pre-2015 (1/5.5)

 

Jason Hammel pre-2015 and Colon pre-2014 would have projected better than Estrada will and signed for 2/20. I think someone will probably go to something like 2/16 for him and he'll throw like 300 innings of ~4.3 ERA ball as a 5th starter.