General Jays Discussion 2015

[Governator]

A) You're guessing Price gets $30M

You have no idea what payroll will be in 2018. The way payrolls and revenues are trending across the league we can assume payroll will be going up (way above $140M which they spent last season)

C) Take money out of the equation and Price is a great fit for this roster

 

Your whole argument is that the Jays haven't spent in the past, why can't they spend going forward? They have the richest owners in baseballl, a fanbase that will support a winner and the means to win.

 

It's a pretty accurate educated guess on Price's salary. Even with a backloaded contract he's getting $30MM AAV. Predicting anything less is a terrible bet.

 

You can't just take money out of the equation for a player that is a great fit when he's the most expensive FA option in this offseason. There will be a lot of pitchers available this offseason, many whom will want to come here for once.

[GD]

Take money out of the equation and Price is a great fit for insert MLB team here

[pickoff22]

A) You're guessing Price gets $30M

You have no idea what payroll will be in 2018. The way payrolls and revenues are trending across the league we can assume payroll will be going up (way above $140M which they spent last season)

C) Take money out of the equation and Price is a great fit for this roster

 

Your whole argument is that the Jays haven't spent in the past, why can't they spend going forward? They have the richest owners in baseballl, a fanbase that will support a winner and the means to win.

 

I would happily wager that payroll will be well above 140 million in 2018. Does that mean they should sign Price? No, but it's not that they couldn't afford him.

[DuckDuckGose]

Lol and you're telling me I'm making a moronic statement.

 

In what world doesn't Price get $30m?

 

There are 3 players in baseball with an AAV of +$30M

 

1. Miguel Cabrera, $31,000,000 (2016-23)

2. Clayton Kershaw, $30,714,286 (2014-20)

3. Max Scherzer, $30,000,000 (2015-21)

Price might $30M, he may also get $25M or $28M and it wouldn't be a surprise to anyone.

[Mikeleelop]

great article on Fangraphs about the Jays

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-overachieving-underachieving-blue-jays-juggernaut/

[Brownie19]

TIL that Devon Travis has is not all that far from Carlos Correa in WAR considering the PA

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=13862&position=2B

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=14162&position=SS

 

And some in the game are already calling Correa a top 10, even a top 5 player in the game...kid is a stud.

[GD]

There are 3 players in baseball with an AAV of +$30M

 

1. Miguel Cabrera, $31,000,000 (2016-23)

2. Clayton Kershaw, $30,714,286 (2014-20)

3. Max Scherzer, $30,000,000 (2015-21)

Price might $30M, he may also get $25M or $28M and it wouldn't be a surprise to anyone.

 

Price, on a $28m AAV for 7 years, totaling $196m, would have to contribute 26 WAR over 7 years, coming down to 3.7 WAR per season. I cannot understate how unlikely that is to happen.

[DuckDuckGose]

You can't just take money out of the equation for a player that is a great fit when he's the most expensive FA option in this offseason. There will be a lot of pitchers available this offseason, many whom will want to come here for once.

 

 

They need to examine the marketplace but you always take money out of the equation when determining the fit of a player. You then look at the money to see if the money makes sense. I'm not going to sit here and say I know what Price will sign for because none of us do. He'll get somewhere between $25M and $30M. The way this roster is constructed the Jays will need to add a #1 pitcher in the off-season. It could be Cueto, Greinke, Price whoever but someone at that calibre. To get those players you have to spend big $. So if you're deciding between fielding a contender for $10M extra vs fighting for a WC spot it's an easy choice for me.

[DuckDuckGose]

Take money out of the equation and Price is a great fit for insert MLB team here

 

Some teams are better fits than others. When you factor in window of contention, cheap controllable players to save $ and the prospect pipeline David Price is a better fit for the Jays than virtually any other team in baseball. Now look at the $ and it still makes sense as long as payroll goes up, so why not go after him?

[DuckDuckGose]

Price, on a $28m AAV for 7 years, totaling $196m, would have to contribute 26 WAR over 7 years, coming down to 3.7 WAR per season. I cannot understate how unlikely that is to happen.

 

You lose money on the backend of the deal, and you make the deal knowing that. It's the cost of winning.

[GD]

Some teams are better fits than others. When you factor in window of contention, cheap controllable players to save $ and the prospect pipeline David Price is a better fit for the Jays than virtually any other team in baseball. Now look at the $ and it still makes sense as long as payroll goes up, so why not go after him?

 

No. Literally every single team in baseball would want David Price when not considering money. Every single one.

 

You lose money on the backend of the deal, and you make the deal knowing that. It's the cost of winning.

 

There is no need to sign a contract that you know loses you money. There are better ways to acquire talent.

[Governator]

They need to examine the marketplace but you always take money out of the equation when determining the fit of a player. You then look at the money to see if the money makes sense. I'm not going to sit here and say I know what Price will sign for because none of us do. He'll get somewhere between $25M and $30M. The way this roster is constructed the Jays will need to add a #1 pitcher in the off-season. It could be Cueto, Greinke, Price whoever but someone at that calibre. To get those players you have to spend big $. So if you're deciding between fielding a contender for $10M extra vs fighting for a WC spot it's an easy choice for me.

 

Here's the difference. Kershaw ends his contract when he's 32 years old (he can opt out when he's 30). David Price will be starting his contract when he's 30 (turning 31).

 

Scherzer set the bar for what you can expect for Price, however the Nationals did a very wonky deal deferring a s*** load of money for another 10 years or whatever it is. Technically he's getting $42MM/yr in his last 3 years. It's a f***ing mess and Price is going to make a mess for some team's accountant (Hopefully that's not RealAccountant or they are surely f***ed).

[baubau]

Price, on a $28m AAV for 7 years, totaling $196m, would have to contribute 26 WAR over 7 years, coming down to 3.7 WAR per season. I cannot understate how unlikely that is to happen.

 

Don't worry. Once Price starts loosing his velo just hire Buehrle help him BURLY his style up. He'll provide that 3.7 WAR easily. Kids these days, pft.

[GD]

Don't worry. Once Price starts loosing his velo just hire Buehrle help him BURLY his style up. He'll provide that 3.7 WAR easily. Kids these days, pft.

 

Imo we won't see another Buehrle for a very long time. He's so rare and unique and... lovable.

[reedjohnsonfan]

Price, on a $28m AAV for 7 years, totaling $196m, would have to contribute 26 WAR over 7 years, coming down to 3.7 WAR per season. I cannot understate how unlikely that is to happen.

 

That's a very simplistic approach. Are you saying it's 7.5 or so million for 1 WAR? Don't you expect it to go up? Also there's way more to consider, window of contention, other premier or even non premier pitchers available.

 

DuckDuckGose is basically saying it's worth it to stretch the budget "for the right player" like AA has always talked about. They might be able to convince Rogers to spend for Price, but not for someone like Cueto for example.

[pickoff22]

Price, on a $28m AAV for 7 years, totaling $196m, would have to contribute 26 WAR over 7 years, coming down to 3.7 WAR per season. I cannot understate how unlikely that is to happen.

 

That's assuming the average cost of WAR hasn't increased, which it will over the life of the contract (well, most likely). And to be honest Baseball teams are businesses as much as sports teams, so contracts are also signed for more reasons then simply the performance on the field. Certain big names can and will lead to increased revenue for the organization that aren't captured by WAR or other statistics. The motivation for signing certain players can extend beyond the diamond.

 

I also don't think achieving an average of 3.7 WAR per season for 7 seasons starting at age 30 is un-achievable if you want to approach it from that angle. Andy Pettitte, Jimmy Key, Curt Schilling (three randoms I first looked at) did it...heck even David Wells came close. When you're as good as David Price is, it's very attainable.

[DuckDuckGose]

No. Literally every single team in baseball would want David Price when not considering money. Every single one.

 

I'm not talking about who wants David Price, I'm talking about which team is the best fit. The Jays have a dominant offense and no top flight pitchers. The difference between Price and what the Jays can replace him with in-house is about 4 wins. That's huge especially for a team that is trying to contend. $30M for 4 wins; that's $7.5M/win a bargain on the FA market.

 

There is no need to sign a contract that you know loses you money. There are better ways to acquire talent.

 

The contract will not lose them money. Why are you evaluating fit in a vacuum. Win 90 is worth exponentially more than win 86. Overall the contract would make ownership money, Price just wouldn't provide surplus value in the latter years of the deal.

[pickoff22]

Anyway, if the team really does get a huge payroll bump for next year, why is it just assumed that Price is the optimal guy to sign? This is a very strong free agent market and there will be many players who fit the Blue Jays just as well.

 

This is an important point as there are a good number of SPs available. When you have Price, Cueto and Greinke all available as free agents, that's a lot of large contracts that should be handed out. Be interesting to see how the supply impacts the market.

[DuckDuckGose]

Here's the difference. Kershaw ends his contract when he's 32 years old (he can opt out when he's 30). David Price will be starting his contract when he's 30 (turning 31).

 

Scherzer set the bar for what you can expect for Price, however the Nationals did a very wonky deal deferring a s*** load of money for another 10 years or whatever it is. Technically he's getting $42MM/yr in his last 3 years. It's a f***ing mess and Price is going to make a mess for some team's accountant (Hopefully that's not RealAccountant or they are surely f***ed).

 

It's going to be similar but Scherzer is a better pitcher than Price in a year that had less pitching depth on the market. Price is going to get paid but he may not break $30M (he might but no one would be shocked if he got $28M AAV). Rogers also has wizard accountants, they'll be fine in that area!

[baubau]

Anyway, if the team really does get a huge payroll bump for next year, why is it just assumed that Price is the optimal guy to sign? This is a very strong free agent market and there will be many players who fit the Blue Jays just as well.

 

- he plays for the team

- he is being hyped up like crazy by all sporting outlets

- people love cliche's such as "he'll stay cause we'll make him love the city" or "he'll stay cause of that offense, wow how could a pitcher say no?" ... blah blah blah

 

Realistically if this team was going after a pitcher they'd like go after Gallardo, Iwakuma, Kennedy, Leake with a pipe dream of Samardzija.

[GD]

That's a very simplistic approach. Are you saying it's 7.5 or so million for 1 WAR? Don't you expect it to go up? Also there's way more to consider, window of contention, other premier or even non premier pitchers available.

 

DuckDuckGose is basically saying it's worth it to stretch the budget "for the right player" like AA has always talked about. They might be able to convince Rogers to spend for Price, but not for someone like Cueto for example.

 

It's back of the napkin, sure, I didn't really feel like going complete and full nerd; but it's close enough. It's unlikely Price will provide around $200m of value.

 

The contract will not lose them money. Why are you evaluating fit in a vacuum. Win 90 is worth exponentially more than win 86. Overall the contract would make ownership money, Price just wouldn't provide surplus value in the latter years of the deal.

 

I'm asserting that the contract will lose them more in the latter years than it'll gain in the former years. $30m per year is a ridiculous salary to pay a pitcher, or anyone, and with the Scherzer contract, that's what you're looking at.

[DuckDuckGose]

It doesn't matter how rich Rogers Communications is. They're a publicly-owned company and will not let the Blue Jays run a deficit. Payroll dollars must be backed up by expected revenue rising by the same amount.

 

They already fudge the numbers to make it appear the Jays lose money. They've been publicly traded for as long as they have owned the Jays. Overall the Jays make them money.

 

A) He'll get at least the Max Scherzer contract. That is going to happen.

 

I guess we'll wait and see.

 

As payrolls and revenues expand, so do player costs. So, if the Jays decide in the 2017-18 offseason that they can bump payroll by 10% due to league revenues expanding 10%, every player will also be expected to cost 10% more. The other teams "across the league" will have more money too. It's unlikely that Blue Jays revenues are growing at a rate that out-paces the league. And in any case, $30MM will still be a tonne of money in 2018.

 

This is an argument to sign someone now. Top flight pitchers are only going to get more expensive and the Jays have a very narrow window even with a pitcher of Price's calibre.

 

C) Price is a massive upgrade for literally every team in baseball, especially in the offseason when rosters are more liquid.

 

Of course but that doesn't mean that he isn't the perfect fit for the Jays. This offense needs pitching behind it beyond this season.

 

Anyway, if the team really does get a huge payroll bump for next year, why is it just assumed that Price is the optimal guy to sign? This is a very strong free agent market and there will be many players who fit the Blue Jays just as well.

 

It doesn't have to be Price but they need a #1 pitcher. So why not him? He's already here, he's a lefty (which tend to age better) and he likes the city.

[metafour]

Anyway, if the team really does get a huge payroll bump for next year, why is it just assumed that Price is the optimal guy to sign?

 

This team has zero LHP starters once Buehrle's tenure comes to an inevitable close. Not even in the forseeable minors after trading away Norris, Boyd, Labourt.

 

For that reason alone Price makes more sense than say Cueto or Grienke.

[Angrioter]

[dineke]

This team has zero LHP starters once Buehrle's tenure comes to an inevitable close. Not even in the forseeable minors after trading away Norris, Boyd, Labourt.

 

For that reason alone Price makes more sense than say Cueto or Grienke.

 

Why do we must have a LH starter?

[o2cui2i]

Jays have Buehrle money off the books for next year as well as Navarro, could they afford to make a good enough offer for Price? 28M AAV for 6 years with some team options for 1 or 2 years? break it down with some back end weight and give him an opt out after 3 years??

[GD]

Jays have Buehrle money off the books for next year as well as Navarro, could they afford to make a good enough offer for Price? 28M AAV for 6 years with some team options for 1 or 2 years? break it down with some back end weight and give him an opt out after 3 years??

 

Jays won't have a TON of money to spend next year. Players get raises which erases a lot of the savings.

[Governator]

Jays have Buehrle money off the books for next year as well as Navarro, could they afford to make a good enough offer for Price? 28M AAV for 6 years with some team options for 1 or 2 years? break it down with some back end weight and give him an opt out after 3 years??

 

Here's a $168MM guaranteed contract offer for ya Price. Great thanks Jays.

 

[one day later]

 

Here's a $220MM guaranteed contract Price, go buy yourself a f***ing F-16 when your retire. Awesome, proud to be a Dodger.

[metafour]

Why do we must have a LH starter?

 

You don't, but if you're arguing over top-end free agents who will all cost you a lot of money, its not hard to conclude that the one that gives your overall rotation a different look makes the most sense.

[DuckDuckGose]

It's back of the napkin, sure, I didn't really feel like going complete and full nerd; but it's close enough. It's unlikely Price will provide around $200m of value.

 

Again why look at this in a bubble. If the Jays win a WS with Price (or whatever ace you want) leading the rotation he'll have made $200M for Rogers in one season.

 

I'm asserting that the contract will lose them more in the latter years than it'll gain in the former years. $30m per year is a ridiculous salary to pay a pitcher, or anyone, and with the Scherzer contract, that's what you're looking at.

 

You are significantly undervaluing wins for upper echelon teams. Win 90 is worth far more than $10M to the Jays.