General Jays Discussion 2015

[jaysfan2014]

How would this message board feel if Ed Rogers went out and signed Dave Dombrowski in the off-season to be the head of baseball ops?

 

Yes and no. He's done a great job with building the Tigers and Marlins teams.. but the Tigers farm system is worst in the game right now, and is going to eventually drag the Tigers down as free agency and age hits the team.

[nextyear]

Exactly. I realize you are being sarcastic, however, statistics can often lead to incorrect conclusions.

 

The equation for fWAR is WAR = (Batting Runs + Base Running Runs + Fielding Runs + Positional Adjustment + League Adjustment +Replacement Runs) / (Runs Per Win) http://www.fangraphs.com/library/war/war-position-players/

 

In statistical analysis another way to determine the effect of a variable is to change that variable and observe the effect. It is better to determine Devon Travis' value to the Blue Jays by considering actual win/loss data with and without Devon Travis than relying on fWAR.

 

When considering a new prescription drug would it be better to determine the value of a drug by a scientific equation (analogous to fWAR in baseball) or by actual trials on people (analogous to the actual win-loss record that is available)?

 

 

Reading through this post of mine in response to John, I realized that I didn't explain my point very well.

 

From Fangraphs: WAR offers an estimate to answer the question, “If this player got injured and their team had to replace them with a freely available minor leaguer or a AAAA player from their bench, how much value would the team be losing?” - http://www.fangraphs.com/library/misc/war/

 

So my point is: why does fWAR fail so miserably in its calculation of the "loss in value" of Devon Travis? In spite of his plus fWAR, when he was injured the team winning percentage was much better with a replacement level player (supposedly Ryan Goins) at his 2nd base position. This is evident from the comparative records at 2B of Devon Travis and Ryan Goins while Devon Travis was playing and while Travis was injured and Goins was playing.

 

I have no dislike for Devon Travis, however, I am pointing out that such strong believe in the fWAR metric for Devon Travis is not justified.

[Nox]

Reading through this post of mine in response to John, I realized that I didn't explain my point very well.

 

From Fangraphs: WAR offers an estimate to answer the question, “If this player got injured and their team had to replace them with a freely available minor leaguer or a AAAA player from their bench, how much value would the team be losing?” - http://www.fangraphs.com/library/misc/war/

 

So my point is: why does fWAR fail so miserably in its calculation of the "loss in value" of Devon Travis? In spite of his plus fWAR, when he was injured the team winning percentage was much better with a replacement level player (supposedly Ryan Goins) at his 2nd base position. This is evident from the comparative records at 2B of Devon Travis and Ryan Goins while Devon Travis was playing and while Travis was injured and Goins was playing.

 

I have no dislike for Devon Travis, however, I am pointing out that such strong believe in the fWAR metric for Devon Travis is not justified.

 

Is this a serious post?

 

Somebody competent who has more remaining patience than I can explain everything (and there is alot) that is wrong with what is written here.

[BTS]

Is this a serious post?

 

Somebody competent who has more remaining patience than I can explain everything (and there is alot) that is wrong with what is written here.

 

I'm pretty sure it's just someone's troll account. Likely North or Dinger.

[Nox]

 

Should do a statistical distribution and provide the probability a pitcher will have a career .250, .260, .270, .280, etc BABIP. Throwing a couple of names up doesn't mean anything.

 

What do you think it is that a projection system does?

 

Random rand = new Random();

 

double babip = rand.NextDouble().Scale(0.25, 0.32);

 

?

 

No.

[Nox]

I'm pretty sure it's just someone's troll account. Likely North or Dinger.

 

God dammit Dr. Dinger.

 

I bet he didn't even go to med school.

[nextyear]

Is this a serious post?

 

Somebody competent who has more remaining patience than I can explain everything (and there is alot) that is wrong with what is written here.

 

 

You do not have to attempt to explain it, I have taken some statistics courses and I understand all the possible statistical explanations, however, one possible explanation is that Devon Travis does not provide the team improvement that his fWAR indicates. Afterall, the fWAR statistic is intended to do this. The Blue Jays are 10 games under .500 when Travis plays; if someone does not believe this then check for yourself. Perhaps once Travis has 1000 ABs the we will have a better picture as to whether his play helps the Blue Jays, is neutral or below average. For now, I am not convinced.

 

There is no doubt in my mind that if Donaldson were injured for an extended period of time, then the Blue Jays record would suffer. I believe this because Donaldson is better defensively than anyone else on the team at his position, and his hitting is also excellent. On the other hand, Travis' defense is not better than Goins defense so Travis' fWAR is not as meaningful when compared to Goins. Travis made one leaping play at 2B last night that the TV annoucers really played up (that is their job), but in reality any average infielder makes that play and some taller players can do it without even jumping. In Thursday's game at Chicago, Travis booted a ball to Goins that Goins turned into an out and saved Travis an error.

 

Baseball is just a game but one that I have enjoyed since the early 1970's when I started following the Expos. I was an Expos fan first and Blue Jays fan second but now I am only a Blue Jays fan. I saw the first game the Blue Jays ever played in 1977 on TV. I saw my first Blue Jays game at Exhibition Park in 1980 against Jim Palmer of the Orioles. I just think it is too bad that the Toronto team wasn't in the National League since it would have been better for the Expos. I also would enjoy watching the games more because I enjoy defense and offense equally (which is more important in the National League).

 

I think baseball appeals to people for the beauty of the game and also because of all the stats involved. However, the stats need to be considered with caution.

[Olerud363]

What do you think it is that a projection system does?

 

Random rand = new Random();

 

double babip = rand.NextDouble().Scale(0.25, 0.32);

 

?

 

No.

 

Is that Java?? I figured you would be more of an R type. I have not met many hard core stats guys that are also fluent in Java... but perhaps in the low circles I travel I have not really met hard core stats people, just second tier.

 

Another similar running argument has frustrated me lately.

 

It goes something like this. Jays 2015 prove that run differential and offense are crap.

 

People have a really hard time with randomness,

[Angrioter]

Reading through this post of mine in response to John, I realized that I didn't explain my point very well.

 

From Fangraphs: WAR offers an estimate to answer the question, “If this player got injured and their team had to replace them with a freely available minor leaguer or a AAAA player from their bench, how much value would the team be losing?” - http://www.fangraphs.com/library/misc/war/

 

So my point is: why does fWAR fail so miserably in its calculation of the "loss in value" of Devon Travis? In spite of his plus fWAR, when he was injured the team winning percentage was much better with a replacement level player (supposedly Ryan Goins) at his 2nd base position. This is evident from the comparative records at 2B of Devon Travis and Ryan Goins while Devon Travis was playing and while Travis was injured and Goins was playing.

 

I have no dislike for Devon Travis, however, I am pointing out that such strong believe in the fWAR metric for Devon Travis is not justified.

 

Maybe, just maybe because Devon Travis is just one element of the team.

[nextyear]

Maybe, just maybe because Devon Travis is just one element of the team.

 

 

That is the most reasonable explanation.

 

Since I was comparing the team results based on when Goins played at 2B and when Travis played at 2B, I believe that you are indicating that when Travis has played the team has played much more poorly than when Goins has played, which is very possible.

 

In any case, Devon Travis hasn't been an impact type player along the lines of a Donaldson or Bautista. However, if he has that ability then it will show up in clutch hits that will help the team win games. Over a longer period of time it should show up in his WAR without the possibility of random chance as indicated by Nox and Olerud363 (or at least it will be far less probable).

[Olerud363]

That is the most reasonable explanation.

 

Since I was comparing the team results based on when Goins played at 2B and when Travis played at 2B, I believe that you are indicating that when Travis has played the team has played much more poorly than when Goins has played, which is very possible.

 

In any case, Devon Travis hasn't been an impact type player along the lines of a Donaldson or Bautista. However, if he has that ability then it will show up in clutch hits that will help the team win games. Over a longer period of time it should show up in his WAR without the possibility of random chance as indicated by Nox and Olerud363 (or at least it will be far less probable).

 

I don't know if you are a troll or not... but my view is this.

 

Devon Travis is not an impact type player along the lines of Donaldson and Bautista. It is unlikely he will show that ability. Over a full season he will (likely) be 2 or 3 wins above replacement.

 

If you want a good team collect players until their collective wins above replacement projections lead to high 80s victory total for 3 or 4 years. Then you will get a couple of playoff appearances.

 

There is no clutch, there is always random chance. You do not know exactly how things will happen. Create a team that will win 89 games, then make sure it is projected to win 89 for a few years... then randomness will hit each way.

 

The Jays 2013-2017 are a 80 win team... random chance brings us to a 75-85 win range which will never be good enough for playoffs. People make silly stories to explain what happens each individual year, but it is just random drift around the 80 wins.

[SAAviour]

I have been trying to figure out what the f*** is wrong with this team...we score a historic amount of runs and get the worst pitching in baseball....the pitching begins to rebound and we can't score a run in 25 innings. Sometimes I truly believe we are cursed, sometimes I think it's my fault for laughing at my dad in 93 when he said "enjoy the winning, they might never make the play offs again in your lifetime" and I laughed at him, told him he was crazy.

Anyway, thank you nextyear for answering my questions...we suck again this year thanks to one of our best players, Devon Travis.

[ElNik2013]

Who knows, maybe this will be a reverse of last year and they'll have a big 2nd half. On the other hand, they could get swept in KC and be 5+ games back of division.

[glory]

How would this message board feel if Ed Rogers went out and signed Dave Dombrowski in the off-season to be the head of baseball ops?

 

It would be a good move, as long as AA follows Beeston out the door. Dombrowski has a track record and always seems to make good trades (the Travis deal was obviously his way of giving Toronto a better talent before he comes over).

[RealAccountant]

I have been trying to figure out what the f*** is wrong with this team...we score a historic amount of runs and get the worst pitching in baseball....the pitching begins to rebound and we can't score a run in 25 innings. Sometimes I truly believe we are cursed, sometimes I think it's my fault for laughing at my dad in 93 when he said "enjoy the winning, they might never make the play offs again in your lifetime" and I laughed at him, told him he was crazy.

Anyway, thank you nextyear for answering my questions...we suck again this year thanks to one of our best players, Devon Travis.

 

What was your dad's line of reasoning.

[ElNik2013]

It would be a good move, as long as AA follows Beeston out the door. Dombrowski has a track record and always seems to make good trades (the Travis deal was obviously his way of giving Toronto a better talent before he comes over).

 

He's probably also interested in being the Nationals' president, "it" just hasn't paid off.

[BigBounceyBlueBalls]

Demote, promote would be a start, dickey and hutch to the pen and Loup and Cecil to the minors, Norris and Boyd or Wolf

 

Up! Smoak to first, EE and Batz to DH ! Pompey and Davis or Alford up!

Release two of either carrea, cola or danny V

 

Reyes to the bench, goins your in!

 

Signal sent, this is not a contender as it stands today! Reality bites, but believing and your only fooling yourself, the truth is out there! Sorry, have a Nice Day! Go Jays!

[SAAviour]

What was your dad's line of reasoning.

 

He'd watched baseball a long time and knows it's a funny game, that's all really.

[nextyear]

The Blue Jays became a contending team while Pat Gillick was their General Manager. During his time from 1978 - 1994 they won the division 5 times and won the world series twice. His record as General Manager with the Blue Jays and other teams indicate that he was the one responsible for building a winning team. He was a baseball man who actually played professional baseball and therefore understood the sport at the grass roots level.

 

Why can't the Blue Jays find a decent General Manager?

[RealAccountant]

The Blue Jays became a contending team while Pat Gillick was their General Manager. During his time from 1978 - 1994 they won the division 5 times and won the world series twice. His record as General Manager with the Blue Jays and other teams indicate that he was the one responsible for building a winning team. He was a baseball man who actually played professional baseball and therefore understood the sport at the grass roots level.

 

Why can't the Blue Jays find a decent General Manager?

 

Poor ownership administration.

[glory]

The Blue Jays became a contending team while Pat Gillick was their General Manager. During his time from 1978 - 1994 they won the division 5 times and won the world series twice. His record as General Manager with the Blue Jays and other teams indicate that he was the one responsible for building a winning team. He was a baseball man who actually played professional baseball and therefore understood the sport at the grass roots level.

 

Why can't the Blue Jays find a decent General Manager?

 

Two reasons:

 

1. They go for cheap alternatives who don't have a track record of success.

2. Meddling ownership that spends money only when they want to, and takes that money away when they want to, etc.

 

The Jays need to strike gold with an unproven GM who can win on a small budget, thereby rendering ownership meddling meaningless, or get a proven GM. Dombrowski or Duquette would be heading into a territory the Jays have not gone in over the past 22 years. Do it. Just don't give up Hoffman to make it happen.

[Smokey]

The Jays 2013-2017 are a 80 win team... random chance brings us to a 75-85 win range which will never be good enough for playoffs. People make silly stories to explain what happens each individual year, but it is just random drift around the 80 wins.

 

Interesting...

 

I am sorry for this but if the Jays have a .600 pythagoran this year and don't make the playoffs it is luck.

 

My guess is the Jays play close to their pythagorean the rest of the way.

 

If Travis comes back healthy and the rest of the guys stay healthy the Jays make the playoffs. No question. I am usually very pessimistic but given health this team will do it. No question.

 

Random chance... Luck... No question!

[Olerud363]

I have been trying to figure out what the f*** is wrong with this team...we score a historic amount of runs and get the worst pitching in baseball....the pitching begins to rebound and we can't score a run in 25 innings. Sometimes I truly believe we are cursed, sometimes I think it's my fault for laughing at my dad in 93 when he said "enjoy the winning, they might never make the play offs again in your lifetime" and I laughed at him, told him he was crazy.

Anyway, thank you nextyear for answering my questions...we suck again this year thanks to one of our best players, Devon Travis.

 

There is nothing wrong with the team. It is a great 80 win team created by "The Beast" and "The fat greak"

 

Any subsection of the 4 year period 2013-2016 will have it's own narrative. One day a team might lose 8-7, the next 2-1... same thing can happen over a period of weeks.

 

It is an 80 win team. Each sub-period will have it's own narrative, each year will be slightly different (between 75-85 wins).

[Olerud363]

Interesting...

 

 

 

 

 

Random chance... Luck... No question!

 

I deserved that no question...

 

1. If the team does outscore the opposition 400-300 or something in the second half, they will be good. I believe in pythagoran.

 

2. Travis has come back healthy and hitting...

 

3. Somehow even with this the offense has tanked since he's been back.

 

Maybe I am to bipolar. I don't know. Mabye not.

 

Statement - after 70odd games... this is a good offensive team.

 

10 more games pass with putrid offensive performance... is it logical to change the statement??

[Nox]

Is that Java?? I figured you would be more of an R type. I have not met many hard core stats guys that are also fluent in Java... but perhaps in the low circles I travel I have not really met hard core stats people, just second tier.

 

Another similar running argument has frustrated me lately.

 

It goes something like this. Jays 2015 prove that run differential and offense are crap.

 

People have a really hard time with randomness,

 

That was some pseudo c# which is actually really inappropriate when discussing a projection model code. R or Python (or some C/C++ for the parts those 2 choke on) would have been the wiser choice.

 

Need to step up my reverse trolling game.

[o2cui2i]

Blue Jays

Mark Buehrle (L)

 

1. Jose Reyes (S) SS

2. Josh Donaldson ® 3B

3. Jose Bautista ® RF

4. Edwin Encarnacion ® DH

5. Justin Smoak (S) 1B

6. Russell Martin ® C

7. Kevin Pillar ® CF

8. Ezequiel Carrera (L) LF

9. Devon Travis ® 2B

 

 

Royals

Chris Young ®

 

1. Alcides Escobar ® SS

2. Mike Moustakas (L) 3B

3. Kendrys Morales (S) DH

4. Eric Hosmer (L) 1B

5. Alex Rios ® RF

6. Omar Infante ® 2B

7. Paulo Orlando ® LF

8. Drew Butera ® C

9. Jarrod Dyson (L) CF

[GD]

That was some pseudo c# which is actually really inappropriate when discussing a projection model code. R or Python (or some C/C++ for the parts those 2 choke on) would have been the wiser choice.

 

Need to step up my reverse trolling game.

 

Is CodeAcademy good for learning python?

[Olerud363]

Is CodeAcademy good for learning python?

 

Not sure. I still am old school and justy buy real books.

 

If you are looking at learning data-analysis with python you will also want to learn python libraries numpy, pandas, and scikitlearn.

[Olerud363]

Interesting...

 

 

 

 

 

Random chance... Luck... No question!

 

Incredibly Jays playoff chances (according to fangraphs) have gone down from 50% to ~25% in the last 20 days.

 

So...

 

1. I was a little overly optimistic a couple of weeks ago

 

but...

 

2. The new information we have gained about the Toronto Blue Jays in the last couple of weeks has been very negative. The new information we have learned about their rivals (NY Yanks, and Aneiham particularly) has been positive.

[RealAccountant]

Borderline Stupid not to convert Burly into a good prospect.