Matt Boyd stud thread

[TheHurl]

If AA doesnt do something soon the fans should revolve

 

The great Jays spin of 2005...remember it well. Bring it back.

[RealAccountant]

The great Jays spin of 2005...remember it well. Bring it back.

 

A good year that was. I still remember the pitch that broke Halladay's ankle.

 

Dumbass JP believed the Jays would have won the wildcard that year LMAO.

[GNick49]

Is there anyway to download interview off 590 website? I missed the Boyd interview this week and wanted to save it to my laptop

[jays4life19]

Is there anyway to download interview off 590 website? I missed the Boyd interview this week and wanted to save it to my laptop

 

http://www.sportsnet.ca/590/baseball-central-at-noon/matt-boyd-on-his-debut-start-with-the-toronto-blue-jays/

 

you can listen to it here.

[metafour]

Currently he is garbage. Or to be more objective, not very good and in fact pretty bad.

 

"Garbage" MLB starters put up the following batted ball stats?

 

BABIP: .260 (T 16th among MLB starters)

GB/FB: 2.56 (T 7th among MLB starters)

GB%: 58.1% (4th among MLB starters)

LD%: 19.2% (26th among MLB starters)

Hard Contact%: 24.1% (T 15th among MLB starters)

LOB%: 80.4% (10th among MLB starters)

 

You can't simply look at K, BB, and Swinging Strike rates and form some sort of all-conclusive judgement. Nobody on here is arguing that Sanchez is pitching at an elite level, but to go out and make statements such as "he's the worst starter in the league" is an absolute joke. If you're going to act like some sort of Bill James wannabe, you can at least go into ALL of his advanced stats and try and decipher why "the worst starter in MLB" is currently fielding a 3.55 ERA despite battling atrocious K/BB rates for the majority of the season.

 

Let me guess, its all "luck"? Potentially....or he is simply incredibly hard to hit, as evidenced by his well above-average batted ball profiles. What do we know about balls hit in play? Line drives are bad (Sanchez is above-average in this regard), ground balls are good (Sanchez is elite in this regard), and his elite hard-contact percentage means that all of those ground balls he induces are easily fieldable by the infielders behind him, because ultimately it is going to be the hard hit groundballs that will make it past defenders.

 

Pitchers who are hard to hit DO exist. These guys CAN get away with putting balls in play, because they typically induce contact that is easy to field. FIP and xFIP has no answer for these pitchers.

[GD]

Why are you looking at BABIP, Hard%, and LD% as a skill in a small sample

[metafour]

Why are you looking at BABIP, Hard%, and LD% as a skill in a small sample

 

Because a small sample is all we have. If you look at his profile from last season pitching out of relief, its the exact same thing except even better (as you'd expect coming from 1-2 inning outings). Obviously you'd need a bigger sample to conclude it as an actual "skill", but given the obvious talent in his arm, its not outrageous to assume that a guy throwing nearly 95mph with a two-seam/sinker is able to induce poor contact.

[metafour]

those stats are for looking at hitters. Sanchez is a pitcher.

 

lol.......

[GD]

Because a small sample is all we have.

 

You have to end it here, then. It's a small sample, and doesn't have statistical significance. Nothing can be concluded except for that.

[metafour]

You have to end it here, then. It's a small sample, and doesn't have statistical significance. Nothing can be concluded except for that.

 

...except that we can conclude that he's the worst starter in the league, right?

[Boxcar]

Some stats are more representative of pitching skill than others. Is this really a difficult concept to understand?

 

How hard can a guy hit the ball if you just throw it 2 feet out of the zone each time? Checkmate.

[Daniel Labude]

Some stats are more representative of pitching skill than others. Is this really a difficult concept to understand?

 

Which ones specifically (don't want to take the time to look it up)...and are they adjusted to the type of hitters faced and quality of hitter faced.

[o2cui2i]

How hard can a guy hit the ball if you just throw it 2 feet out of the zone each time? Checkmate.

 

the thing I can agree on is that we have had too many pitchers get thrown into the fire this year before they are ready. Expecting guys who are not ready to do well and kicking them to the curb when they don't is lame.

[GD]

...except that we can conclude that he's the worst starter in the league, right?

 

His Hard%, BABIP, LD%, etc, are small samples. They do not have enough data to be relied upon.

 

His K%, BB%, SwStr%, and GB% are reliable. His K% is below average, his BB% is horrendous, his SwStr is bad but improved over last year by quite a sizable margin, and his GB% is elite.

 

So, we can surmise that Sanchez doesn't really get strikeouts, walks too many guys, is improving with regards to SwStr but still needs work, and is fantastic at getting GB. This is all we can honestly know about Aaron Sanchez right now.

[Maahfaace]

His Hard%, BABIP, LD%, etc, are small samples. They do not have enough data to be relied upon.

 

His K%, BB%, SwStr%, and GB% are reliable. His K% is below average, his BB% is horrendous, his SwStr is bad but improved over last year by quite a sizable margin, and his GB% is elite.

 

So, we can surmise that Sanchez doesn't really get strikeouts, walks too many guys, is improving with regards to SwStr but still needs work, and is fantastic at getting GB. This is all we can honestly know about Aaron Sanchez right now.

 

Does anyone with half a brain expect a 22 yr old who throws his fastball 82% of the time to actually miss bats at a high rate or even decent rate? The kids fastball has elite potential if he can harness command of it. He shows flashes of a plus curveball, coupled with the fact that he has worked hard on developing a change up that if comes to fruition will allow him to miss bats more frequently. The only real question is whether or not this kid can gain control and develop secondary pitches, but to write him off as garbage as some do on this forum at this point in his career is just ridiculous.

[GD]

Does anyone with half a brain expect a 22 yr old who throws his fastball 82% of the time to actually miss bats at a high rate or even decent rate? The kids fastball has elite potential if he can harness command of it. He shows flashes of a plus curveball, coupled with the fact that he has worked hard on developing a change up that if comes to fruition will allow him to miss bats more frequently. The only real question is whether or not this kid can gain control and develop secondary pitches, but to write him off as garbage as some do on this forum at this point in his career is just ridiculous.

 

People misunderstand some of the forum's sentiment. As of right now, he's not really a major league pitcher; he could get better; it's not entirely likely he'll get better, but it's possible; the ceiling is there, it's just a longshot he'll reach it, is what most people think right now i think.

 

No one thinks Sanchez is already maxed out and a bust, people just find it unlikely he'll hit his ceiling.

[BTS]

Sanchez has a high LOB%. Elite.

[Maahfaace]

People misunderstand some of the forum's sentiment. As of right now, he's not really a major league pitcher; he could get better; it's not entirely likely he'll get better, but it's possible; the ceiling is there, it's just a longshot he'll reach it, is what most people think right now i think.

 

No one thinks Sanchez is already maxed out and a bust, people just find it unlikely he'll hit his ceiling.

 

tell me why you think he is a really bad pitcher other than his command issues and why he will not get better. just would like to know from someone who seems objective.

Edited July 6, 2015 by Maahfaace

[metafour]

his BB% is horrendous

 

His BB/9 was down to 2.57 in his last four starts which spanned 28 innings (42% of his overall season innings). His ERA over those outings was subsequently 2.89.

 

He's got the fastball to be a positive starter as long as his walk rate is manageable, even with poor strikeout rates.

[metafour]

How hard can a guy hit the ball if you just throw it 2 feet out of the zone each time? Checkmate.

 

They couldn't hit it hard last season when he was only walking 2.45/9 in relief either, with a 6.5% swinging strike rate while throwing nearly 90% fastballs.

 

90% fastballs, 66% groundball rate, .157 BABIP.

 

Why couldn't they just hit it hard?

[Maahfaace]

They couldn't hit it hard last season when he was only walking 2.45/9 in relief either, with a 6.5% swinging strike rate while throwing nearly 90% fastballs.

 

90% fastballs, 66% groundball rate, .157 BABIP.

 

Why couldn't they just hit it hard?

 

He still throws 82+% fastballs, it explains his low k rate and SwStr%

[Maahfaace]

They could, they just didn't because of variance (or luck, depends on how you want to phrase it). It was unrelated to Sanchez's abilities as a pitcher.

 

He was also throwing 97 touching 99 coming out of the pen, had to have some impact. You kids and your BABIP, while i agree it's a useful stat it doesn't mean you should solely rely on it

[Orgfiller]

He still throws 82+% fastballs, it explains his low k rate and SwStr%

 

Not really, Sean Doolittle is another pitcher who throws his fastball at a very high rate (86.6% of pitches in his career) and he gets a substantial amount of swinging strikes (13.2% SwStr).

[Maahfaace]

Velocity does not let a pitcher suppress BABIP, sorry. That is a fact. Here's the relationship for 2014-2015 seasons of 30 IP.

 

 

DIPS is not absolutely flawless, but it is good enough to be almost solely relied upon.

 

No but LD% does directly correlate with babip, which Sanchez is what? really good at limiting

[BTS]

This argument is silly. Guy has a K/BB of 5.7/5. Nobody manages contact well enough to make that work long-term.

[Abomination]

Speaking of Boyd, his line from tonight: 7 innings, 6 hits, 2 runs, 1 walk, 8 k's, 1 home run. Nice to see he isn't moping around.

[KingKat]

Speaking of Boyd, his line from tonight: 7 innings, 6 hits, 2 runs, 1 walk, 8 k's, 1 home run. Nice to see he isn't moping around.

 

He'll be back.

[Maahfaace]

Limiting line drives is not a skill, that can be demonstrating using year-to-year comparisons for pitchers. Sanchez is not good at limiting LD%, it has just by chance happened that batters have failed to hit line drives off him in his brief major league career.

 

fangraphs would seem to disagree with you

 

"Batted ball stats are extremely useful for determining the type of pitcher at which you’re looking. There is no ideal batted ball distribution, but pitchers who allow a lot of line drives typically perform worse than pitchers who allow lots of fly balls or ground balls."

[Boxcar]

Not really, Sean Doolittle is another pitcher who throws his fastball at a very high rate (86.6% of pitches in his career) and he gets a substantial amount of swinging strikes (13.2% SwStr).

 

Jake McGee is a top 5 reliever in baseball and he throws almost strictly fastballs as well with tons of whiffs.

[Maahfaace]

Jake McGee is a top 5 reliever in baseball and he throws almost strictly fastballs as well with tons of whiffs.

 

you can find extremes with any scenario (Mcgee has one of the best fastballs in MLB since 2012, both 4 seam and 2 seam), and Sanchez looks like he might be of a different extreme. Hitters just dont square up his fastball consistently.