Matt Boyd stud thread

[Boxcar]

you can find extremes with any scenario (Mcgee has one of the best fastballs in MLB since 2012, both 4 seam and 2 seam), and Sanchez looks like he might be of a different extreme. Hitters just dont square up his fastball consistently.

 

Sanchez doesn't have nearly enough innings to confidently conclude that.

[Maahfaace]

Sanchez doesn't have nearly enough innings to confidently conclude that.

 

might isnt a word of confidence, but on the flip side, Sanchez doesnt have nearly enough innings to confidently conclude that he is lucky with regards to his LD%

[BTS]

might isnt a word of confidence, but on the flip side, Sanchez doesnt have nearly enough innings to confidently conclude that he is lucky

 

Huh? That's the default position when a guy's results don't match his peripherals. 0ER with 4BB and 1K over 7 IP in a start? Lucky. 3.5 ERA with a 4.5 xFIP ver 55 innings? Lucky until more evidence suggests it isn't luck.

[HERPDERP]

He should be in the BP. Or a NL starter.

[Maahfaace]

Huh? That's the default position when a guy's results don't match his peripherals. 0ER with 4BB and 1K over 7 IP in a start? Lucky. 3.5 ERA with a 4.5 xFIP ver 55 innings? Lucky until more evidence suggests it isn't luck.

.

 

But you are not looking at the whole picture, this is the issue i have with alot of the advanced stats guys on here. You claim to be know it all's but then select only the stats that suit your argument. 7IP 0 ER 4BB 1SO with 75% GB rate and 5% LD rate is a good start. Just cause Sanchez can get it done differently than the majority doesn't make him bad.

 

Case in point the chubby fellow on the mound for the Jays tonight, hes made a career of getting it done against the norm

[BTS]

.

 

But you are not looking at the whole picture, this is the issue i have with alot of the advanced stats guys on here. You claim to be know it all's but then select only the stats that suit your argument. 7IP 0 ER 4BB 1SO with 75% GB rate and 5% LD rate is a good start. Just cause Sanchez can get it done differently than the majority doesn't make him bad.

 

Case in point the chubby fellow on the mound for the Jays tonight, hes made a career of getting it done against the norm

 

Buehrle isn't really the mystery people make him out to be. Career ERA less than half a run less than his xFIP, and you can chalk it up to being maybe the best defensive pitcher ever. You can look at the numbers and account for Buehrle's run prevention. You can't do that for Sanchez, and after only 85 innings, there isn't really a reason to try. He keeps it up for another 500 innings and maybe you start to take a deeper look. There's no reason to expect that he will though.

[Maahfaace]

Buehrle isn't really the mystery people make him out to be. Career ERA less than half a run less than his xFIP, and you can chalk it up to being maybe the best defensive pitcher ever. You can look at the numbers and account for Buehrle's run prevention. You can't do that for Sanchez, and after only 85 innings, there isn't really a reason to try. He keeps it up for another 500 innings and maybe you start to take a deeper look. There's no reason to expect that he will though.

 

While a good fielder, hes not even close to the best defensive pitcher ever, even if he was that would not account for that big a differential between ERA and XFIP.

[Maahfaace]

Buehrle isn't really the mystery people make him out to be. Career ERA less than half a run less than his xFIP, and you can chalk it up to being maybe the best defensive pitcher ever. You can look at the numbers and account for Buehrle's run prevention. You can't do that for Sanchez, and after only 85 innings, there isn't really a reason to try. He keeps it up for another 500 innings and maybe you start to take a deeper look. There's no reason to expect that he will though.

 

Buerhle has a made a living because he induces weak contact, look at his career LD%. The fact that he does it with middling stuff is all the more impressive. He really knows how to keep hitters off balance. Also known as a "pitcher" lol

[Jimcanuck]

Buehrle isn't really the mystery people make him out to be. Career ERA less than half a run less than his xFIP, and you can chalk it up to being maybe the best defensive pitcher ever. You can look at the numbers and account for Buehrle's run prevention. You can't do that for Sanchez, and after only 85 innings, there isn't really a reason to try. He keeps it up for another 500 innings and maybe you start to take a deeper look. There's no reason to expect that he will though.

 

the most reasonable expectation to have with a 23 yr old pitcher still learning to pitch is improvement. so waiting for 500 IP is meaningless, he's not going to be the pitcher over those 500

[BTS]

While a good fielder, hes not even close to the best defensive pitcher ever, even if he was that would not account for that big a differential between ERA and XFIP.

 

Buehrle's ERA is 3.81 and his xFIP is 4.19. DRS estimates that he's saved 87 runs defensively since 2003. That takes his ERA to 4.05. Tack on another 15 runs for the ~500 innings he pitched before DRS and you get 4.10, which brings you to a meaningless difference between his ERA and xFIP.

 

As to him not being close to the best ever, his 87 DRS ranks first since we started tracking. Only 4 pitchers have 50 or more. Is he the best ever? Who the f*** knows. But if we talked about pitcher defense in terms like that he'd be a generational talent.

[BTS]

the most reasonable expectation to have with a 23 yr old pitcher still learning to pitch is improvement. so waiting for 500 IP is meaningless, he's not going to be the pitcher over those 500

 

That's a bit beside the point. I'm not saying he won't improve. I'm saying that 85 innings with an ERA a run less than his xFIP isn't enough to start wondering if maybe he has a skill for putting up an ERA a run less than his xFIP. If 500 innings from now Sanchez still has a 3.5 ERA and 4.5 xFIP, than maybe you can entertain the possibility that there might be something there.

 

I think it's overwhelmingly more likely that he figures things out and brings the ERA down, or keeps doing what he's doing and the ERA goes up. I don't think he'll keep doing what he's doing and maintain the 3.5 ERA. That would be unprecedented.

[Maahfaace]

Buehrle's ERA is 3.81 and his xFIP is 4.19. DRS estimates that he's saved 87 runs defensively since 2003. That takes his ERA to 4.05. TAck on another 15 runs for the ~500 innings he pitched before DRS and you get 4.10, which brings you to a meaningless difference between his ERA and xFIP.

 

As to him not being close to the best ever, his 87 DRS ranks first since we started tracking. Only 4 pitchers have 50 or more. Is he the bets ever? Who the f*** knows. But we talked about pitcher defense in terms like that he'd be a generational talent.

 

Greg Maddux was a s*** ton better, while i agree hes good, he is still nowhere near the greatest ever, especially since he can barely run.

[BTS]

Greg Maddux was a s*** ton better, while i agree hes good, he is still nowhere near the greatest ever, especially since he can barely run.

 

The point was just that Buehrle is really really really good. Maybe he's Stanton to Maddux's Trout. I dunno. But there's every reason to believe that Buehrle's defense makes the kind of impact that pitcher defense doesn't usually make. DRS picks up on it.

[Jimcanuck]

That's a bit beside the point. I'm not saying he won't improve. I'm saying that 85 innings with an ERA a run less than his xFIP isn't enough to start wondering if maybe he has a skill for putting up an ERA a run less than his xFIP. If 500 innings from now Sanchez still has a 3.5 ERA and 4.5 xFIP, than maybe you can entertain the possibility that there might be something there.

 

I think it's overwhelmingly more likely that he figures things out and brings the ERA down, or keeps doing what he's doing and the ERA goes up. I don't think he'll keep doing what he's doing and maintain the 3.5 ERA. That would be unprecedented.

 

agreed although i can see the xFIP continuing to exceed the ERA if he continues to keep the ball down with sinking movement. he's likely to continue to be an extreme GB pitcher

[BTS]

agreed although i can see the xFIP continuing to exceed the ERA if he continues to keep the ball down with sinking movement. he's likely to continue to be an extreme GB pitcher

 

Very possible. It will just be a difference of less than a third of a run if it continues to happen.

[Jimcanuck]

Sanchez can improve at AAA. The Blue Jays have a full minor league system that allows young pitchers to get better without costing the Major League club wins. Each marginal win is worth $10MM+ to the Blue Jays at this point, they can't afford to knowingly waste innings on a replacement-level starter.

 

Not many here will disagree on this point. Beginning of season both Sanchez and Norris should have been in Buffalo as injury depth.

 

With the state of the pitching staff, Sanchez is going nowhere. Even if he shits the bed he is more likely to be moved to the bullpen, not Buffalo.

[Maahfaace]

The point was just that Buehrle is really really really good. Maybe he's Stanton to Maddux's Trout. I dunno. But there's every reason to believe that Buehrle's defense makes the kind of impact that pitcher defense doesn't usually make. DRS picks up on it.

 

My point is Sanchez has the tools to outperform his xFIP if he can gain control of his dirty sinker, clearly it wont be by a full run. But what I think what people tend to miss with Sanchez is his fastball looks so enticing to a hitter on its way into the box, and the movement that follows has hitters altering mid swing to connect with the ball which can induce weaker contact. Now this does not apply to all hitters as some are adept at adjusting to different pitchers quickly, but for the most part hitters are having a difficult time squaring up his fastball. Now something analytics wont project is if this kid develops his secondary stuff, which would allow him to miss bats more frequently further improving his fastball effectiveness. Its why alot of scouts rave about him as a pitcher, and rightfully so. Of course potential is just that, potential, but I wouldnt be surprise to see Sanchez become a solid 2-4 pitcher in 2 years if he develops a solid change up to go with his curveball

[ElNik2013]

Some guy wrote someteeng I read somewhere that Sanchez might actually need to throw his offspeed pitches more and "better balls".

 

 

Who knows though I may have made it all up.

[Maahfaace]

Some guy wrote someteeng I read somewhere that Sanchez might actually need to throw his offspeed pitches more and "better balls".

 

 

Who knows though I may have made it all up.

 

not sure what the better balls means, closer to the plate? Although I agree for him to be a successful starter he needs to be able to throw his curveball and a solid change-up more often for strikes.

[GD]

tell me why you think he is a really bad pitcher other than his command issues and why he will not get better. just would like to know from someone who seems objective.

 

You can't really say "other than his command issues;" That's exactly why, and it's a big deal. We think he's unlikely to get better because of his peers in history. Give this a quick read.

 

http://www.breakingblue.ca/2015/05/13/do-prospects-like-aaron-sanchez-improve-their-control-an-investigation/

 

His BB/9 was down to 2.57 in his last four starts which spanned 28 innings (42% of his overall season innings). His ERA over those outings was subsequently 2.89.

 

He's got the fastball to be a positive starter as long as his walk rate is manageable, even with poor strikeout rates.

 

What was his BB/9 in the other 58%? You can't pick and choose your sample. Besides, in that 42% sample, what was his K/9?

 

You know what correlates highly with ERA? BABIP which we've established is in a sample too small to recognize. So his ERA is mainly irrelevant.

 

Velocity does not let a pitcher suppress batting average on balls in play, sorry. That is a fact.

 

Why on earth do people think fastball velo suppresses babip? Higher FBv = higher exit velocity on contact= harder hit baseballs = more hit.

 

No but LD% does directly correlate with babip, which Sanchez is what? really good at limiting

 

This is an entirely invalid statement as we've already established ITT.

[ElNik2013]

not sure what the better balls means, closer to the plate? Although I agree for him to be a successful starter he needs to be able to throw his curveball and a solid change-up more often for strikes.

 

 

What was meant by "better balls" is pitches closer to the edges of the strike zone which would help him get more swings and misses.

 

 

Anyway...

[Maahfaace]

You can't really say "other than his command issues;" That's exactly why, and it's a big deal. We think he's unlikely to get better because of his peers in history. Give this a quick read.

 

http://www.breakingblue.ca/2015/05/13/do-prospects-like-aaron-sanchez-improve-their-control-an-investigation/

 

 

 

What was his BB/9 in the other 58%? You can't pick and choose your sample. Besides, in that 42% sample, what was his K/9?

 

You know what correlates highly with ERA? BABIP which we've established is in a sample too small to recognize. So his ERA is mainly irrelevant.

 

 

 

Why on earth do people think fastball velo suppresses babip? Higher FBv = higher exit velocity on contact= harder hit baseballs = more hit.

 

 

 

This is an entirely invalid statement as we've already established ITT.

 

 

It is not invalid in one bit. babip against LD% hovers in the .650 range, babip for GB% hovers in the .240 range and flyballs in the .210 range. Someone that can limit LD% by inducing weak contact will have a lower babip than someone who doesnt. Take Drew Hutchinson for example, everyone says hes underperforming his xFIP and hes a better pitcher than that. Look closer at this metrics, hes exclusively using the 4 seam fastball more this year than last, and hes getting rocked at a higher LD% rate ( as his fastball really isnt that good), hence the spike in his babip.

 

There are some smart cookies on this site, but some of you need to look into the stats a little more than babip is high, hes unlucky. There are underlying factors that help explain alot of what is happening to a player.

[Maahfaace]

I think the argument is that it's harder to "square up" a 95 mph fastball over an 85 mph fastball. And it that's the case, then you should get less hard contact, meaning less likelihood of base hits.

 

I want GD to stand in front of my 82 mph fastball and take 100 cuts, then stand in front of chapmans fastball and take 100 cuts and tell me theres not a difference in babip.

[Abomination]

I want GD to stand in front of my 82 mph fastball and take 100 cuts, then stand in front of chapmans fastball and take 100 cuts and tell me theres not a difference in babip.

 

All 0 for 100's are equal.

[Daniel Labude]

I want GD to stand in front of my 82 mph fastball and take 100 cuts, then stand in front of chapmans fastball and take 100 cuts and tell me theres not a difference in babip.

 

Just use Beuhrle's fastball...might be easier to hit lol

[Maahfaace]

All 0 for 100's are equal.

 

lol

[Abomination]

I think the argument is that it's harder to "square up" a 95 mph fastball over an 85 mph fastball. And it that's the case, then you should get less hard contact, meaning less likelihood of base hits.

 

The graph North posted seems to suggest otherwise, although it wasn't clear if the graph looked at the babip off all pitches, or just off fastballs.

[Jimcanuck]

What was his BB/9 in the other 58%? You can't pick and choose your sample. Besides, in that 42% sample, what was his K/9?

 

so what sample do we use? take last years and this years data and the BB/9 is ~4 and K/9 is > 6.

 

with dynamic systems, it is appropriate to give a higher weight to the more recent data and if there is a marked change in the data, the data from before that point should be disregarded. applied to pitching, if a guy suddenly develops an effective knuckleball to go with a 93 mph fastball, all data from before the knuckleball was developed should not be considered when predicting the future.

 

sanchez appears to be improving start by start, looking at his overall results doesn't tell us anything about his future. at this stage of his career, as a rookie starter and making adjustments start by start, his overall stats for the year are essentially meaningless

[GD]

I think the argument is that it's harder to "square up" a 95 mph fastball over an 85 mph fastball. And it that's the case, then you should get less hard contact, meaning less likelihood of base hits.

 

It is not invalid in one bit. babip against LD% hovers in the .650 range, babip for GB% hovers in the .240 range and flyballs in the .210 range. Someone that can limit LD% by inducing weak contact will have a lower babip than someone who doesnt. Take Drew Hutchinson for example, everyone says hes underperforming his xFIP and hes a better pitcher than that. Look closer at this metrics, hes exclusively using the 4 seam fastball more this year than last, and hes getting rocked at a higher LD% rate ( as his fastball really isnt that good), hence the spike in his babip.

 

There are some smart cookies on this site, but some of you need to look into the stats a little more than babip is high, hes unlucky. There are underlying factors that help explain alot of what is happening to a player.

 

No one is arguing that LD% positively correlates with BABIP, or anything else stated in this post.

 

LD% becomes reliable at 600 BIP. Sanchez has a third of that. Sanchez's LD% is entirely unreliable, which means that we cannot say he suppresses LD, which means we cannot say he suppresses BABIP.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/library/principles/sample-size/

[GD]

I want GD to stand in front of my 82 mph fastball and take 100 cuts, then stand in front of chapmans fastball and take 100 cuts and tell me theres not a difference in babip.

 

yes because I'm a major league hitter

 

nice post