Jeff Hoffman stud thread

[LTR]

Last year the Royals gave Butler 600 PA at below replacement level (-0.6 WAR). They gave Aaron Crow 59 innings at -1.1 WAR. They kept Bruce Chen beyond his expiry date and wasted innings on Tim Collins and Louis Coleman.

 

They also let Jimmy Parades and Liam Hendrix go for nothing.

 

This year they have given Infante 300 PA and Rios 170 PA and both are well below replacement level. They are the only ones on earth who didn't notice that Jeremy Guthrie sucks and continue to give him innings.

 

Last year the Giants had Cain, Romo, Gutierrez and Lopez all pitch at or below replacement level

 

This year the Giants have wasted 342 PA's on Angel Pagan and have given big innings to Hudson, Casilla, Machi, Vogelsong (who they chose to re-sign), Petit and Affedlt - all who have been awful this year and at or below replacement level.

 

 

These organizations must be really f***ing dumb too.......oh....wait a minute.

 

This is a really bad post. I actually can't believe you had the courage to post it considering just how awful it is. Almost every single person you mentioned has had significant success at the major league level and in the previous year or recent history. We're talking about 2-5 WAR players here (relievers aside) who are having bad seasons or had one bad season. Chris Colabello is not similar to any of these players except maybe Butler and the Royals dumped him. Chris Colabello is a guy that can't play LF, he provides negative value because of it, he actually hurts the team, and that's not going to change... there's no projection or track record of success that indicates Chris Colabello is suddenly going to start playing LF.

[HERPDERP]

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/hoffman-and-reyes-among-minors-most-intriguing-arms/

 

McDaniel thinks the Jays are turning Hoffman from a monster prospect to just 'solid'

[Brownie19]

This is a really bad post. I actually can't believe you had the courage to post it considering just how awful it is. Almost every single person you mentioned has had significant success at the major league level and in the previous year or recent history. We're talking about 3,4,5+ WAR players here who are having bad seasons or had one bad season. Chris Colabello is not similar to any of these players except maybe Butler and the Royals dumped him. Chris Colabello is a guy that can't play LF, and provides negative value because of it, he actually hurts the team, and that's not going to change. There's no projection or track record of success that indicates Chris Colabello is suddenly going to start playing LF!

 

You're ignoring the fact you listed Dickey, Bonifacio (who's had 3.0 WAR and 2.1 WAR season), Izturis (who was consistently above replacement level as a part time player throughout his career) and Esmil Rogers, who actually wasn't below replacement level in 137 innings in 2013.

 

Anyway - I agree, Colabello sucks. He's turned back into a pumpkin and should never have been in LF to start with. My point is it's easy even look at successful teams and cherry pick decisions they have made. I don't fault the Jays organization for giving Dickey, Boni or Izturis an opportunity. I also don't fault them for giving some of their better prospects a chance at the ML level (2012 Drabek, 2013 JPA, Sanchez).

 

That narrows it down to Laffey, McGowan, Goins and Colabello. All of them are 25th roster guys - these things happen. Colabello's still at a wRC+ of 143 on the year - I don't have an issue with him getting some PA's at DH.

[Boxcar]

LTR commented on someone else making a terrible post. That happened.

[G-Snarls]

280 PA for a below replacement level guy last 3 years

 

2013: Arencibia 497 PA, Izturis 400 PA, Bonifacio 282 PA

2014:

2015: -----> So Far: Goins 211 PA, Colabello 221 PA

 

 

 

+60 IP for a below replacement level guy last 4 years

 

2012: Laffey 100.2 IP, Drabek 71.1 IP

2013: Esmil Rogers 137.2 IP

2014: McGowan 82 IP

2015: Dickey 114.2 IP, Sanchez 66.2 IP

 

This made me look up JPA

 

.228/.259/.449 in AAA Durham with 16 HR this year. Seems about right.

[TwistedLogic]

Well in any case, he shouldn't be on the Jays. It's baffling that even after trading Lind, the roster is overstocked with DH types again. After the Donaldson and Martin acquisitions I thought to myself, hurray, AA has caught up to defensive value but that was a mirage. Pompey could help this team win. His defensive value would more than make up the offensive gap with Collabello. It might not be ideal for his development but it's probably not really harmful long term either and it makes a ton of sense for a supposedly win now team.

 

But how was that a mirage? There are average to extremely good defenders at every position outside of LF and 1B, and left field is only in that mess because Saunders was injured. You can fault them for not having a contingency in place beyond that, but Pillar was supposed to be that contingency, and Carrera was to back him up. Like you said, a Pompey promotion should remedy that, but you can't complain about them not having re-promoted him yet.

 

Don't tell me that a team who regularly employs Kevin Pillar and Ryan Goins doesn't understand the merits of good defense.

[G-Snarls]

Durham also featuring other AAAA washed-ups like Alexi Casilla and Nick Franklin

[Laika]

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/hoffman-and-reyes-among-minors-most-intriguing-arms/

 

McDaniel thinks the Jays are turning Hoffman from a monster prospect to just 'solid'

 

LoL blue jays

[Boxcar]

Depressing

[Stangstag]

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/hoffman-and-reyes-among-minors-most-intriguing-arms/

 

McDaniel thinks the Jays are turning Hoffman from a monster prospect to just 'solid'

 

Who is McDaniel?

[LTR]

You're ignoring the fact you listed Dickey, Bonifacio (who's had 3.0 WAR and 2.1 WAR season), Izturis (who was consistently above replacement level as a part time player throughout his career) and Esmil Rogers, who actually wasn't below replacement level in 137 innings in 2013.

 

I didn't list any of these people and one good season =! multiple good seasons. With Dickey there are age/performance considerations. A track record of success, not one good season.

 

Anyway - I agree, Colabello sucks. He's turned back into a pumpkin and should never have been in LF to start with. My point is it's easy even look at successful teams and cherry pick decisions they have made. I don't fault the Jays organization for giving Dickey, Boni or Izturis an opportunity. I also don't fault them for giving some of their better prospects a chance at the ML level (2012 Drabek, 2013 JPA, Sanchez).

 

By all accounts Dickey, Boni, Izy, etc. should have been better. There are certain players you can gamble on, depends on your depth at that position, confidence level, scouting, projections, etc.

 

That narrows it down to Laffey, McGowan, Goins and Colabello. All of them are 25th roster guys - these things happen. Colabello's still at a wRC+ of 143 on the year - I don't have an issue with him getting some PA's at DH.

 

It's 100% clear cut that they need to platoon Carrera/Valencia in LF until a better option is made available (i.e. Saunders or trade). Colabello is a bench bat or occasional 1B, otherwise send him to AAA.

[TwistedLogic]

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/hoffman-and-reyes-among-minors-most-intriguing-arms/

 

McDaniel thinks the Jays are turning Hoffman from a monster prospect to just 'solid'

 

Well that's concerning. And it explains the low K's.

[HERPDERP]

Well I believe in the Jays development staff, for the most part they have done a good job developing our pitchers (including those that have left us)

[LTR]

LTR commented on someone else making a terrible post. That happened.

 

You have self-esteem issues. You really need to work that out because it's clearly not getting any better.

 

Yes, that happened.

[Angrioter]

Weak contact skill over strikeout is the real decision.

 

Joe Blanton over Jose Fernandez

[DuckDuckGose]

Well that's concerning. And it explains the low K's.

 

That was one of the worst Fangraphs articles I've read in awhile (only read the Hoffman portion). Nit-picking fairly minor mechanical changes and then generalizing on the conclusions. They said it themselves, Hoffman has his best velo and CB when he wants it, he's just choosing to take a little off. Not really a big deal.

[Brownie19]

I didn't list any of these people and one good season =! multiple good seasons. With Dickey there are age/performance considerations. A track record of success, not one good season.

 

 

Yep - my bad. Ang is the offender. My point is lots of good organizations end up giving PA's or IP's to players who don't produce above replacement level. Their reasons for doing that varies a lot.

[Spanky__99]

Durham also featuring other AAAA washed-ups like Alexi Casilla and Nick Franklin

 

Franklin isn't a dud, yet.

[LTR]

Yep - my bad. Ang is the offender. My point is lots of good organizations end up giving PA's or IP's to players who don't produce above replacement level. Their reasons for doing that varies a lot.

 

The reasons aren't that elaborate

 

1. They don't have a better option (depth) at the position

2. They believe the player is capable of more

 

^Neither of these are the case with Chris Colabello IMO.

[Angrioter]

Yep - my bad. Ang is the offender. My point is lots of good organizations end up giving PA's or IP's to players who don't produce above replacement level. Their reasons for doing that varies a lot.

 

Do you think Colabello can perform better than this?

[Spanky__99]

Do you think Colabello can perform better than this?

 

Ang, the Dominacana suxxxx

[DuckDuckGose]

Weak contact skill over strikeout is the real decision.

 

Joe Blanton over Jose Fernandez

 

Throw strikes that will induce weak contact early in the count, go for swings once you're ahead. It's not rocket science.

[Angrioter]

Throw strikes that will induce weak contact early in the count, go for swings once you're ahead. It's not rocket science.

 

weak contact is a skill?

[DuckDuckGose]

Weak contact isn't a thing for most pitcher types though. You should pursue strikeouts because they almost always result in outs that do not advance runners. When the batter makes contact, anything can happen.

 

You can't strike people out on a 0-0 count. You have to throw strikes to get strikes. The focus should be on keeping hitters uncomfortable and off balance at the plate; that will lead to weak contact when they inevitably do put the ball in play.

[DuckDuckGose]

weak contact is a skill?

 

Certainly is; http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=104&position=P. Big K #'s (just less balls in play in general) increases your chances to be successful but there are more than 1 way to skin a cat.

[GD]

Certainly is; http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=104&position=P.

 

You know one guy doing it doesn't make it a skill right?..

[Spanky__99]

Certainly is; http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=104&position=P. Big K #'s (just less balls in play in general) increases your chances to be successful but there are more than 1 way to skin a cat.

 

Who skins a cat?

 

[DuckDuckGose]

You know one guy doing it doesn't make it a skill right?..

 

Yes it does, just makes it a rare one.

[DuckDuckGose]

Who skins a cat?

 

 

I don't know, i didn't event the phrase and haven't really thought about where it comes from.. people must've done it at some point though? I guess?

[Spanky__99]

Anyone who eats cat.

 

Draw your own conclusions...

 

OH MY GOD!!!!!! cf