2015 MLB Season O/U Win Totals

BTS · February 16, 2015

Ben Cherington has an outstanding history with free agents.

Nox · February 17, 2015

Rays under.

Lol

Rays @ 77.5 is as much of an inefficient line as you'll see in the North American betting market. Easy over.

Nox · February 17, 2015

Also like the Jays, Nats and Cubs overs. Under on the Pads.

Edit: Def Cleveland over too.

Nox · February 17, 2015

Vegas lines aren't even real projections but an estimate of what sportbooks believe lines need to be to get a 50-50 split of money betting on either side so they don't expose themselves to actually making bets and just collect on the spreads.

That's not strictly true anymore. A number of the sportsbook take non market neutral positions on purpose when they see inefficiencies.

G-Snarls · February 17, 2015

Padres are the sexy team this yr, kind of like we were in 2013.

Spent money and got some names. Still a very incomplete team. Very similar.

jaysfan2014 · February 17, 2015

Ben Cherington has an outstanding history with free agents.

Except when they blow up, which Victorino, Napoli, several relievers acquired through trade, Peavy, Pierzynski, Drew (2nd time), Sizemore.. you were being sarcastic, right?

Sure, they won a World Series.. but that was mostly Theo's team. We knew the team would decline without Ellsbury.. but who knew Bradley would be a bust, Middlebrooks couldn't stay healthy, Bogaerts struggled, Mike Carp turned back into the AAAA player he was, and Victorino returned to being injury-prone. And don't get me started on Doubront and Buchholz..

GD · February 17, 2015

Except when they blow up, which Victorino, Napoli, several relievers acquired through trade, Peavy, Pierzynski, Drew (2nd time), Sizemore.. you were being sarcastic, right?

Impressive reading comprehension.

BTS · February 17, 2015

Victorino 5.6 fWAR in 2013 while helping the Sox to a WS. Bad signing.

GD · February 17, 2015

Mike Napoli 3.2 fWAR/550 with the Red Sox. Bad signing.

Jake Peavy was traded to the Red Sox. Bad signing.

Relievers were traded to the Red Sox. Bad signing.

Raysjays is dumn. Bad signing.

Dick_Pole · February 17, 2015

Except when they blow up, which Victorino, Napoli, several relievers acquired through trade, Peavy, Pierzynski, Drew (2nd time), Sizemore.. you were being sarcastic, right?

Sure, they won a World Series.. but that was mostly Theo's team. We knew the team would decline without Ellsbury.. but who knew Bradley would be a bust, Middlebrooks couldn't stay healthy, Bogaerts struggled, Mike Carp turned back into the AAAA player he was, and Victorino returned to being injury-prone. And don't get me started on Doubront and Buchholz..

"On January 22, 2014, Grady Sizemore signed with the Boston Red Sox. The contract is for one year with a base salary of $750,000, with incentives that would increase the total to up to $6 million."

Gotta love this f***ing guy....

BTS · February 17, 2015

How good a signing was Uehara? Like 5-6 wins over two years for $8.4 M.

Stangstag · February 17, 2015

How good a signing was Uehara? Like 5-6 wins over two years for $8.4 M.

I think it was definitely a gamble that paid off. He easily could have fallen apart. He's pretty fking old now.

BTS · February 17, 2015

I think it was definitely a gamble that paid off. He easily could have fallen apart. He's pretty fking old now.

I dunno, 2nd year was a vesting option based on 55 games, so the risk was pretty minimal.

TwistedLogic · February 17, 2015

Lol

Rays @ 77.5 is as much of an inefficient line as you'll see in the North American betting market. Easy over.

Which is why I'm betting under.

Nox · February 17, 2015

Which is why I'm betting under.

That doesn't make any sense.

burlingtonbandit · February 17, 2015

Maybe if Longoria gets hurt and the Rays start off slow then sell off a bunch of players in early June they get under 77 wins. I mean its certainly possible but I think you are better off on betting the over. I still think the Padres are the number 1 bet for the Under.

TheHurl · February 17, 2015

That doesn't make any sense.

Because he really, really wants it to happen. This is how Sportsbooks make money.

TheHurl · February 17, 2015

Maybe if Longoria gets hurt and the Rays start off slow then sell off a bunch of players in early June they get under 77 wins. I mean its certainly possible but I think you are better off on betting the over. I still think the Padres are the number 1 bet for the Under.

I generally prefer unders to overs just because of the injury factor.

Is anyone interested in doing a confidence pool (ie. 30 points SD under...down to 1 point Texas over) based on these lines. King or North...can you put this together in a spreadsheet for us please.

TwistedLogic · February 17, 2015

Because he really, really wants it to happen. This is how Sportsbooks make money.

I'm not putting down money on it. I'm just betting that the Rays will go under. Does that bother you?

TheHurl · February 18, 2015

I'm not putting down money on it. I'm just betting that the Rays will go under. Does that bother you?

Nah, I like the Rays being underrated. Makes it more fun when they have success. I still believe that your opinion on Rays has less to do with analysis, than want. I remember the last year that Sports Interaction allowed parlays on certain futures. I had bet so many win totals. Most of the wagers were on solid analysis...but a bunch of the parlays had the Phillies (who I hate) under in many of them. If just ignored that I would have made 1000's instead of 100's.

I take it no one wanted to do the confidence pool on this?

TwistedLogic · February 18, 2015

Nah, I like the Rays being underrated. Makes it more fun when they have success. I still believe that your opinion on Rays has less to do with analysis, than want. I remember the last year that Sports Interaction allowed parlays on certain futures. I had bet so many win totals. Most of the wagers were on solid analysis...but a bunch of the parlays had the Phillies (who I hate) under in many of them. If just ignored that I would have made 1000's instead of 100's.

I take it no one wanted to do the confidence pool on this?

It has absolutely nothing to do with want though. I don't care how the Rays do. I'm indifferent to them. I want the Orioles to do poorly more than any other team in the majors, yet I voted the over for them, so I can't possibly see why you'd think my opinion has anything to do with want.

I think the Rays are a good club with good management, and I understand the love for the organization. That said, I think their days of being underrated monsters is over, and I think that at this point, many on this board actually overrate them.

The Rays were projected for 86 wins going into 2014, and they finished with 77 wins. They are now projected for 83 wins, and I think they will again finish at 77 or less.

I don't like an infield of Franklin/Cabrera, and I don't believe Franklin is going to be a 1.5 win player next year. I believe that projecting Souza and Kiermaier, both players that I actually like, for 4.3 WAR is a bit too optimistic. I also like Rivera, but assuming that this past year wasn't an outlier, and that he's suddenly become a valuable major leaguer at the age of 31, and will post 2.0 non-framing wins next year is optimistic. Loney bouncing back at the age of 31 with a 1.7, a guy who's only done that twice in the last seven years, is also optimistic.

The Rays have a good pen, but I think that even the projections agree with me that their rotation is overrated.

The 83 projected wins depend heavily on a very large amount of what-ifs from their position players, and I think enough can go wrong for them to easily fall 6 wins shy of that projection. Outside of Longoria and maybe Jennings, they have no sure things on the field. Franklin, Souza and Kiermaier may be good. Rivera may suddenly be an above average bat. Loney may not be s***. These guys may look great a year from now, but I don't like the uncertainty going into this season.

I disagree with the projections that the Jays are only 1-win better than the Rays, and while I admit that the Rays can easily outperform the 77.5 that the bookies have given them if enough breaks right, I'm comfortable in predicting that they won't.

jays76 · February 18, 2015

It has absolutely nothing to do with want though. I don't care how the Rays do. I'm indifferent to them. I want the Orioles to do poorly more than any other team in the majors, yet I voted the over for them, so I can't possibly see why you'd think my opinion has anything to do with want.

I think the Rays are a good club with good management, and I understand the love for the organization. That said, I think their days of being underrated monsters is over, and I think that at this point, many on this board actually overrate them.

The Rays were projected for 86 wins going into 2014, and they finished with 77 wins. They are now projected for 83 wins, and I think they will again finish at 77 or less.

I don't like an infield of Franklin/Cabrera, and I don't believe Franklin is going to be a 1.5 win player next year. I believe that projecting Souza and Kiermaier, both players that I actually like, for 4.3 WAR is a bit too optimistic. I also like Rivera, but assuming that this past year wasn't an outlier, and that he's suddenly become a valuable major leaguer at the age of 31, and will post 2.0 non-framing wins next year is optimistic. Loney bouncing back at the age of 31 with a 1.7, a guy who's only done that twice in the last seven years, is also optimistic.

The Rays have a good pen, but I think that even the projections agree with me that their rotation is overrated.

The 83 projected wins depend heavily on a very large amount of what-ifs from their position players, and I think enough can go wrong for them to easily fall 6 wins shy of that projection. Outside of Longoria and maybe Jennings, they have no sure things on the field. Franklin, Souza and Kiermaier may be good. Rivera may suddenly be an above average bat. Loney may not be s***. These guys may look great a year from now, but I don't like the uncertainty going into this season.

I disagree with the projections that the Jays are only 1-win better than the Rays, and while I admit that the Rays can easily outperform the 77.5 that the bookies have given them if enough breaks right, I'm comfortable in predicting that they won't.

Yup I went against the trendy norm and took the Rays under too, I think they reside in the AL East cellar as the whipping boys and get there ass handed to them this year. 77 wins last year and that was with Maddon, Price, Hell boy, Myers, Joyce, and Zobrist on board. Sure they still have a great young staff & some potential breakout players but 2015 will be a wash for them imo. Also once I realized Yunel wasn't there I knew the party was officially over..

jays76 · February 18, 2015

I generally prefer unders to overs just because of the injury factor.

Is anyone interested in doing a confidence pool (ie. 30 points SD under...down to 1 point Texas over) based on these lines. King or North...can you put this together in a spreadsheet for us please.

Sounds like fun, especially if there's a little deniero in the mix.

Deadpool · February 18, 2015

Disregard, I tl;dr'd out an important piece of info.

Dick_Pole · February 18, 2015

Whoever got Cleveland at 81 wins is one lucky SOB. My sportsbook has its lines up now and they are at 84.5 wins so they go from a slam dunk over to a no-play with a slight lean on over imo. Orioles line dropped a couple wins and Twins are up three. Other popular picks like SD under and TB over have poor returns. The White Sox under 82.5 would be my favorite choice out of this list. Yes I know, ugly format. No way am I spending the time prettying it up.

2015 Baseball Regular Season Wins - Regular Season Wins

Chicago Cubs Regular Season Wins APR 5, 2015 | 7:00 PM

Over 82½ reg season wins1.87

Under 82½ reg season wins1.87