Around Baseball 2015

[burlingtonbandit]

I think most people would term that the class of 2019, not 2018 (this is the 2016 offseason right now).

 

A lot those players will either extend and not reach free agency or decline and not be a big deal three years from now. It's just so early to look at it.

 

Some of the names he lists even suck right now, lol. Gattis and Happ? Mauer? Carter Capps will probably be retired in three years. Nelson Cruz will be 38! He will be total garbage.

 

I will grant that the top end is massive and some of them seem to have a very strong chance of reaching FA. Harper, Donaldson, Cutch, Machado, Heyward, Kershaw, Fernandez, Sale could all be seen to have a better than average chance of still being elite and not extending with their current team, for one reason or another.

 

Agreed. So far away that so much can happen until then. The thing I don't get is whyPassan was tweeting about teams that have little money committed in 2019 as though they will have lots of flexibility to sign multiple players. Almost every team has little to no money committed to players in 2019.

[Boxcar]

Pretty good and extensive article on the relationship between Dodger players and Puig

 

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2597460-is-there-anybody-left-in-los-angeles-whom-yasiel-puig-hasnt-alienated

 

Man, AJ Ellis sounds like a great guy.

[DerangedIdoit]

I think most people would term that the class of 2019, not 2018 (this is the 2016 offseason right now).

 

A lot those players will either extend and not reach free agency or decline and not be a big deal three years from now. It's just so early to look at it.

 

Some of the names he lists even suck right now, lol. Gattis and Happ? Mauer? Carter Capps will probably be retired in three years. Nelson Cruz will be 38! He will be total garbage.

 

I will grant that the top end is massive and some of them seem to have a very strong chance of reaching FA. Harper, Donaldson, Cutch, Machado, Heyward, Kershaw, Fernandez, Sale could all be seen to have a better than average chance of still being elite and not extending with their current team, for one reason or another.

 

Sale has team friendly options until 2019. So he won't be available for any other team until 2020. I think Kimbrel might be signed long term as well.

[BTS]

Wow $10M guaranteed for Cishek over two years.

[GD]

Reliever market is beyond dumn rn

[Thomas Malthus]

Hardball Times has a really cool article about the unionization of baseball - it's a narrative not an analytical piece (just thought I'd toss it out as forewarning).

 

I had a quick look around but in the first 5 or so pages on the forum this looked to be the most correct place to put it since there doesn't appear to be a "General baseball articles/news not deserving of their own thread" thread. Apologies if this should have been placed elsewhere.

 

Edit: I realized now that the link is sort of hard to see, so here it is again: http://www.hardballtimes.com/the-unionization-of-baseball/

Edited December 12, 2015 by Thomas Malthus

[BTS]

Reliever market is beyond dumn rn

 

It's insane. I thought he'd get like $1M after the year he just had. Guys like him and Axford are getting huge money to probably be a couple runs above replacement.

[Thomas Malthus]

http://www.fangraphs.com/freeagents.aspx?sign=all&pos=RP&nteam=all&oteam=all&sort=5,d

 

http://i.imgur.com/RUSVk8I.png

 

[Thomas Malthus]

An interesting explanation for the rising price of relievers: Beyond The Box Score - The Ken Giles trade to the Astros shows the marginal value of closers is being re-evaluated

 

...

I'd hypothesize that the true dollar value of a player is more dynamic than a broad $/WAR model. Maybe a player is more accurately valued at the lowest cost of acquiring the same marginal WAR improvement that this player provides, but over one or more other roster spots.

 

To illustrate with an example, suppose there is a projected 3.0 WAR first baseman available in free agency, and an interested team currently has a 2.0 WAR first baseman. That free agent would not add three wins to the team's projected total; instead he would add only the one win over the player being replaced.

...

This is why teams like the Red Sox, Dodgers, and Astros are chasing after relievers - they have well-rounded teams with positive contributors at most positions. It would cost the Red Sox far more to improve upon their weakest position player by the same amount as adding Craig Kimbrel over a AAAA arm.

 

Additionally, while a starter or position player distribute their value among all situations, all of the closer's value comes in a high-leverage environment. This "leverage value" component should be more accurately compared against the second-best reliever in the bullpen, the one this new acquisition is replacing in those situations.

...

 

Always gotta keep in mind that counterfactual.

 

Of course it seems like one alternative explanation would be that the intended use of the relievers is changing - perhaps allowing more innings played to increase the value.

[Laika]

Appel is in the Giles trade! Wow.

 

Todd Zolecki ‏@ToddZolecki 1m1 minute ago

Giles trade is official. Phillies receive RHPs Vincent Velasquez, Mark Appel, Thomas Eshelman and Harold Arauz and LHP Brett Oberholtzer.

[burlingtonbandit]

Appel is in the Giles trade! Wow.

 

Todd Zolecki ‏@ToddZolecki 1m1 minute ago

Giles trade is official. Phillies receive RHPs Vincent Velasquez, Mark Appel, Thomas Eshelman and Harold Arauz and LHP Brett Oberholtzer.

 

Jeez. Send a memo to all 29 teams that Osuna is on the block.

[fatcowxlive]

Appel is in the Giles trade! Wow.

 

Todd Zolecki ‏@ToddZolecki 1m1 minute ago

Giles trade is official. Phillies receive RHPs Vincent Velasquez, Mark Appel, Thomas Eshelman and Harold Arauz and LHP Brett Oberholtzer.

 

Is he that good?????? Or did Appel fall off the face of the earth????? Wow the reliever market is crazy

[GD]

That's a disgusting trade for Houston imo

[fatcowxlive]

That's a disgusting trade for Houston imo

 

This trade makes the Kimbrel trade look so much better for the sox lol

[Boxcar]

What is Houston doing?

[Cyborg]

Astros get a 17 year old SS too. Appel suxxx so who cares.

[Boxcar]

Astros get a 17 year old SS too. Appel suxxx so who cares.

 

Die

[Laika]

Is he that good?????? Or did Appel fall off the face of the earth????? Wow the reliever market is crazy

 

Appel is junk. Just kind of nuts to see a 1-1 get dumped like that.

[fatcowxlive]

Appel is junk. Just kind of nuts to see a 1-1 get dumped like that.

 

Wasn''t he getting all these Clemens comps when he was drafted? He got drafted top 10 in 2012 then redrafted first overall in 2013 how could he fall off so badly?

[Boxcar]

Wasn''t he getting all these Clemens comps when he was drafted? He got drafted top 10 in 2012 then redrafted first overall in 2013 how could he fall off so badly?

 

He's gonna turn his career around after this.

[Thomas Malthus]

He's gonna turn his career around after this.

 

Why, is he immediately getting dealt to the Pirates?

[GD]

Ken Giles is not significantly better than Zach Putnam. Discuss.

[Boxcar]

Why, is he immediately getting dealt to the Pirates?

 

That would be great actually

[Boxcar]

Ken Giles is not significantly better than Zach Putnam. Discuss.

 

Look at your worst poster nominee trying to climb out of the gutter, ladies and gentlemen.

[GD]

Look at your worst poster nominee trying to climb out of the gutter, ladies and gentlemen.

 

live from the gutter

[Captain Adama]

Wasn''t he getting all these Clemens comps when he was drafted? He got drafted top 10 in 2012 then redrafted first overall in 2013 how could he fall off so badly?

 

Appel is one of the shittiest 1-1 players ever. I've never seen a Clemens comp dropped on him before.

[BTS]

Trade looks a lot better for Houston with Appel replacing Fisher.

[glory]

Yeah if the Jays are convinced that Osuna is not a starter, then trade him. You won't find a better market to do it than this one.

 

I like Chavez, but I'm beginning to wonder what the Jays could have gotten for Hendriks if they held on to him for another month.

[Key22]

Why, is he immediately getting dealt to the Pirates?

 

Ray Searage should be a contract pitcher fixer and let teams contract him for 1 month for $1m. He's getting underpaid in Pittsburgh. Go free agent Ray!

 

I was his next door neighbour in Richmond BC when he was playing for the Vancouver Canadians - got a team signed ball from him and the team. Nice guy. I remember he told my dad he was hoping to get enough MLB games (service time) to get the pension knowing that he was a fringe MLB pitcher. Glad to see he got a good job and is being revered as a pitcher fixing guru.

[Spanky__99]

Wow $10M guaranteed for Cishek over two years.

 

Grossssss.