Are the Jays going for it or not? Please say this isn't another year stuck in limbo..

[Boxcar]

Also,

 

In: Estrada

 

Out: Lind

 

And apparently no one remembers Melky Cabrera.

[LongTimeReader]

And apparently no one remembers Melky Cabrera.

 

Yeah, the list was kind of random, and decidedly self-fulfilling

[Boxcar]

I think we were just talking about trades, else there would be a number of other mentions.

 

Martin wasn't a trade.

[LongTimeReader]

Martin wasn't a trade.

 

Yeah, caught that too, hence revised post.

[Chappy]

Kudos to AA, he really has done an amazing job this off season. Believe me no one wants me to be wrong more than me, I'll be cautiously optimistic and hoping for the best going forward. Are we in limbo now? It's definitely to early to make a judgment and that's not what I was saying, what I was getting at is I hope we don't end up in the same predicament as last year come the AS break where the team's competitive but they refuse to cough up dough.

 

That's a fair point, who knows how much funds willbe available at the trade deadline, but that doesn't mean AA can't get creative. I firmly believe if AA was sold on this team being a legit contender at the dealine he would make a strong case to ownership for another push.

[TheHurl]

Good point. Although I'm not sure I'd expect Osuna up in 2015.

 

up to 300 lbs?

[baloojayz]

Hey guys like everyone else I've loved all the moves AA has made this off season but the momentum seems to have come to a grounding halt. Not just because moves aren't being made at the same fap worthy pace but because the mood has changed in multiple articles I've read about the Jays not having as much budget left to work with as originally believed. Sure there's a ton of time left to make moves and I get the crying poor smokescreen to the other GM's & Agents so I'm still optimistic, but yet I still can't get that knot out of my stomach or shake the feeling of impending limbo like I had all of last year.

 

Last year I had a feeling of perpetual frustration due to the Jays not making moves in the off season (which I however understood coming off the prior clusterf*** of a season). Like most people I was irritated they didn't sign Santana along with hearing the pathetic clubhouse salary defferal articles but I understood their position and gave management the benefit of the doubt, but what I couldn't forgive or understand was when the Jays had a tenuous grip on the wildcard and were still up 3 games at the AS break the fans, media, and even the players were pleading to management for reinforcements to no avail. It's hard to say now what would've came of it but it really felt like at the time we just needed a decent piece or two to capitalize on the momentum we'd built and make that final push to the playoffs. I remember all the Rogers is cheap and AA is a smokeblower backlash on here and for the most part I agreed, why not drop an extra 10-15mil and seize the momentum and cash in on the playoff ratings and drive. I mean ultimately if they failed the team could just shed payroll in the off season, personally I think most saw it as a lost opportunity.

 

 

Now Bautista, EE, Reyes, Dickey, etc. are a year older and the window will be even tighter to go all in. AA came out like gangbusters and signed Martin and traded for Donaldson which indicated they might be maximizing this Bautista/EE window but not so fast, they trade for Saunders and pass on Melky which I think is a great cost saving move to spread out the salary and plug some holes but a myriad of useful free agents get signed and pass us by and now out come all the articles about budget restrictions. I'd hate to think I'm a mark for this line of thought but who knows maybe I am after being snakebit so hard last year, all I know is if we're in let's go for it and if we're not let's tear it down because having an identity crisis like last year is the absolute worst place you can be.

 

 

Nice to come across someone with a similar opinion. When I said we were done making moves a few weeks back, everyone was saying I should calm down cuz it's a long off-season and there was no way AA was done.

 

 

If just Stroman goes down or has a bad year, we are going to have a substantially worse year than 2014, 5 WAR players and all. We lost WAR too let's not forget that with all the departures. We made more problems for ourselves by not going the easy route and re-signing Melky, keeping Lind, and signing Martin. We HAD to go out and get Smoak, trade away Happ (could be a 3-4 starter) for Saunders, and are going to have to either trade Navarro for nothing or hold his salary and DH him.

If we just kept our team from last season and signed Melky and a SP, we are a better team right now.

 

 

If the off-season ended tomorrow, AA would get an F in my books for continuing to ignore the actual needs of the team. Potential wise, we are the same team from last season.

[ScientificReason]

How so? We have 7 legitimate options for our rotation at this point between Dickey, Buehrle, Stroman, Hutch, Estrada, Sanchez, and Norris. Add in a guy like Redmond or Jenkins who can spot start if needed and we are fine.

 

Quality versus quantity..Lots of question marks (Will stroman regress his first full year in the league, will hutch be more consistent, stay healthy?), and a lot of mediocrity on that list. MB won;t go 10-1 first 2 months this year with an era of 2.00 like last year. Sanchez and norris are unknowns and I doubt ready to start.

 

Another top flight starter would go a long way in solidifying this rotation imo.

 

people here are over valuing this rotation imo, it is very suspect and everything will have to go right for it to be good enough to be a playoff tea, IMO. We also need bullpen help, team is not a serious contender yet in my opinion.

[Boxcar]

We lost WAR too let's not forget that with all the departures.

 

So if someone said to you "I will give you a $10 bill for your $5 bill." Would you say you lost that $5?

[JaysRap]

Nice to come across someone with a similar opinion. When I said we were done making moves a few weeks back, everyone was saying I should calm down cuz it's a long off-season and there was no way AA was done.

 

 

If just Stroman goes down or has a bad year, we are going to have a substantially worse year than 2014, 5 WAR players and all. We lost WAR too let's not forget that with all the departures. We made more problems for ourselves by not going the easy route and re-signing Melky, keeping Lind, and signing Martin. We HAD to go out and get Smoak, trade away Happ (could be a 3-4 starter) for Saunders, and are going to have to either trade Navarro for nothing or hold his salary and DH him.

If we just kept our team from last season and signed Melky and a SP, we are a better team right now.

 

 

If the off-season ended tomorrow, AA would get an F in my books for continuing to ignore the actual needs of the team. Potential wise, we are the same team from last season.

 

Just outta curiousity, how many wins do you guess this team would win right now if no other changes were made?

[BigBounceyBlueBalls]

I don't think 1000 innings from five starters should ever be considered easy.

 

With shields added safer bet then winning lotto 649!

Shields,buehrle and dickey averaged 653 innings over the last 3 years! Even at a 5 percent drop they are a easy 620 pitched.

Leaving stroman and hutch any where needing to pitch 173 to 190 innings each! Easy

Leaving 7 arms in the pen with 65-66 innings to pitch each!

[baloojayz]

In:

Donaldson, Martin, Saunders, Travis, Smoak, Estrada

 

Out:

Lawrie, Graveman, Nolin, Baretto, Gose, Happ, Rasmus, Melky, Morrow, Janssen, Navarro (likely), Lind.

 

Not so amazing. Esp when you look at guys like Rasmus, Lawrie, Melky, and Morrow as guys with potential to have performed a LOT better than they did during the 2014 season.

 

From a potential stand point, taking the highest WAR the above players posted in 2013 and 2014 (and 2012 for injury riddled players) we get

 

In:

Donaldson, Martin, Saunders, Travis, Smoak, Estrada

8+5.5+2.4+(Replacement)+1.4+1.6= 18.9

 

Out:

Lawrie, Gose, Happ, Rasmus, Melky, Morrow, Janssen, Navarro (likely), Lind.

4.5 (2012)+ (Replacement)+ 1.4 + 4.6 + 3.1 + 3.2 (2012) + 1.4 + 2.3 + 2.3= 22.8

 

Didn't count Pompey as I feel he is a prospect and doesn't count as an addition even though the departure of Rasmus opens up a spot for him. He could have been traded if we held onto Rasmus.

Edited December 17, 2014 by baloojayz

[LongTimeReader]

Quality versus quantity..Lots of question marks (Will stroman regress his first full year in the league, will hutch be more consistent, stay healthy?), and a lot of mediocrity on that list. MB won;t go 10-1 first 2 months this year with an era of 2.00 like last year. Sanchez and norris are unknowns and I doubt ready to start.

 

Another top flight starter would go a long way in solidifying this rotation imo.

 

people here are over valuing this rotation imo, it is very suspect and everything will have to go right for it to be good enough to be a playoff tea, IMO. We also need bullpen help, team is not a serious contender yet in my opinion.

 

^chp

[ScientificReason]

I'm going to make a bold prediction that not only is Saunders cheaper than Melky, but that he'll have a better season in 2015 than Melky.

 

This is a strong possibility imo, going from Safeco to rogers centre will help him. Good pickup.

[Chappy]

Quality versus quantity..Lots of question marks (Will stroman regress his first full year in the league, will hutch be more consistent, stay healthy?), and a lot of mediocrity on that list. MB won;t go 10-1 first 2 months this year with an era of 2.00 like last year. Sanchez and norris are unknowns and I doubt ready to start.

 

Another top flight starter would go a long way in solidifying this rotation imo.

 

people here are over valuing this rotation imo, it is very suspect and everything will have to go right for it to be good enough to be a playoff tea, IMO. We also need bullpen help, team is not a serious contender yet in my opinion.

 

Stroman is already a #2 at this point and could emerge as an ace this season. Hutch displayed quite a bit of promise last season and should take a big step forward with Martin behind the plate. Buehrle and Dickey are durable inning eaters and Estrada has had success in the past and was likely an undervalued asset this winter. I'm not sure why you doubt Norris is ready? Sanchez has at least shown he can pitch out of the pen if needed as well. It's not an elite group by any means but when you have a lineup that features the quality of players we have, this rotation is quite sufficient.

[ScientificReason]

Stroman is already a #2 at this point and could emerge as an ace this season. Hutch displayed quite a bit of promise last season and should take a big step forward with Martin behind the plate. Buehrle and Dickey are durable inning eaters and Estrada has had success in the past and was likely an undervalued asset this winter. I'm not sure why you doubt Norris is ready? Sanchez has at least shown he can pitch out of the pen if needed as well. It's not an elite group by any means but when you have a lineup that features the quality of players we have, this rotation is quite sufficient.

 

That's exactly what I am talking about....lots of assumption and speculation , everything goes right mentality, when does everything go right as you want/expect? Hutch was terrible at times last year and very jekyl and hyde, there is no guarantee he will take off, and stroman may regress in his first full year as the league adjusts. Sanchez and Norris are unknowns as starters , that is a fact, more major ?. MB and dickey are steady but unspectacular 4.00 ish era guys at this point.

 

Also assuming a 34 year old bautista does not regress, reyes is what 32 and was poor at times last year, will Saunders put it together, will Donaldson keep the pace of his last 2 seasons? The offense on paper looks elite...but you can never know for sure either. we better hope the Offense is legit and injuries don't pile up at once like last year.

[Brownie19]

That's exactly what I am talking about....lots of assumption and speculation, Hutch was terrible at times last year and very jekyl and hyde, there is no guarantee he will take off, and stroman may regress in his first full year as the league adjusts. Sanchez and Norris are unknowns as starters , that is a fact, more major ?. MB and dickey are steady but unspectacular 4.00 ish era guys at this point.

 

Also assuming a 34 year old bautista does not regress, reyes is what 32 and was poor at times last year, will Saunders put it together, will Donaldson keep the pace of his last 2 seasons? The offense on paper looks elite...but you can never know for sure either. we better hope the Offense is legit and injuries don't pile up at once like last year.

 

What about when Shields was awful in the playoffs last year? You obviously seem to worry that everything could go wrong - doesn't that worry you too?

[ScientificReason]

How do you know I am worried? I am simply stating everything has to break right for this staff to be good enough, when does everything break right? 1-2 starts in playoffs = Amazing sample size there....meaningless.

[Boxcar]

Sorry. + draft pick.

 

You don't evaluate off seasons based on expired contracts leaving.

 

Well, you said "In: blah blah Out: blah blah" which to me would indicate total personnel change on field between 2014 and 2015.

[Dick_Pole]

In:

Donaldson, Martin, Saunders, Travis, Smoak, Estrada

 

Out:

Lawrie, Graveman, Nolin, Baretto, Gose, Happ, Rasmus, Melky, Morrow, Janssen, Navarro (likely).

 

Not so amazing. Esp when you look at guys like Rasmus, Lawrie, Melky, and Morrow as guys with potential to have performed a LOT better than they did during the 2014 season.

 

Huh? Morrow was barely a contributor last year so how can you include him. Might as well just say he left in 2013 and call it a day. Navarro being traded will bring a piece in. Janssen will either be resigned or someone will be signed to replace him (same with McGowan). And you still forgot Lind.

[L54]

That's exactly what I am talking about....lots of assumption and speculation , everything goes right mentality, when does everything go right as you want/expect? Hutch was terrible at times last year and very jekyl and hyde, there is no guarantee he will take off, and stroman may regress in his first full year as the league adjusts. Sanchez and Norris are unknowns as starters , that is a fact, more major ?. MB and dickey are steady but unspectacular 4.00 ish era guys at this point.

 

Also assuming a 34 year old bautista does not regress, reyes is what 32 and was poor at times last year, will Saunders put it together, will Donaldson keep the pace of his last 2 seasons? The offense on paper looks elite...but you can never know for sure either. we better hope the Offense is legit and injuries don't pile up at once like last year.

 

What happens if 33 (in 3 days) year old James Shields regresses? What if everything doesn't go right for him and you're stuck with him til 37?

[ScientificReason]

What happens if 33 (in 3 days) year old James Shields regresses? What if everything doesn't go right for him and you're stuck with him til 37?

 

Please show me I ever said get Shields in any of my posts. Aren't pitchers more stable regression wise as they enter there 30's?

[Dick_Pole]

1000 IP is a stretch but 600+ IP from Dickey, MB and Hutch is a solid bet. Then it all depends on how Stroman and #5 guy do but 900 IP seems achievable.

 

The problem with Hutchison being jeckyl and hyde has as much to do with his supporting cast as it does with him. A young pitcher coming off of surgery with a K an inning and 185 IP in his first full season. An improved catcher supporting him and (hopefully) better defense behind him. I like my chances of a big year from him. If you just replace Navarro with Martin for Hutch's 2014 season how much better would his stats be with the exact same pitch count? Probably over 200 K's and several more IP with half a run shaved off the ERA.

[baloojayz]

So if someone said to you "I will give you a $10 bill for your $5 bill." Would you say you lost that $5?

 

No I would say I made 5 bux. I wouldn't act as if I made $10 cuz the $5 was all in quarters and was just lying around anyways.

 

Also, if you see my other post about potential, we were given a $10 bill for a $11 bill.

Edited December 17, 2014 by baloojayz

[baloojayz]

Huh? Morrow was barely a contributor last year so how can you include him. Might as well just say he left in 2013 and call it a day. Navarro being traded will bring a piece in. Janssen will either be resigned or someone will be signed to replace him (same with McGowan). And you still forgot Lind.

 

Yeah I was looking at mean value regarding Morrow.

 

I changed the calc to include Lind looking even worse.

 

Saying we will bring in pieces is the equivalent of saying we saved money. It means nothing until money is spent. Quite a few good players got signed to reasonable contracts here, so AA's inaction to me means there are salary constraints again.

[baloojayz]

By this logic wer'e having an amazing 2015-2016 offseason already since no longer paying Ricky Romero.

 

It's true...lol you could throw Beuhrle in there too.

[baloojayz]

Just outta curiousity, how many wins do you guess this team would win right now if no other changes were made?

 

83 give or take 2-3 wins.

[Westfan]

Well with the way the pitching market has gone I can hardly fault the Jays for waiting for some value. Look at the stupidity in the Mott and Anderson contracts. The reliever market is way overpriced and waiting it out is about all AA can do.

 

Sure I would have liked to grab a Gregerson or Neshek but every team has a budget and the Jay,s budget is pretty darn good. Every teams fans scream for more payroll to be added even the Yankee fans. Jays have the added burden of having to deal with a canadian dollar costing 1.16 today. Yes I have read here about hedging but it still seems to me the Jays will have to spend 10 or so percent more.

Two months left for AA to find some pitching that has value .

[Dick_Pole]

In:

In:

Donaldson, Martin, Saunders, Travis, Smoak, Estrada

8+5.5+2.4+(Replacement)+1.4+1.6= 18.9

 

Out:

Lawrie, Gose, Happ, Rasmus, Melky, Morrow, Janssen, Navarro (likely).

4.5 (2012)+ (Replacement)+ 1.4 + 4.6 + 3.1 + 3.2 (2012) + 1.4 + 2.3= 20.5

 

Didn't count Pompey as I feel he is a prospect and doesn't count as an addition even though the departure of Rasmus opens up a spot for him. He could have been traded if we held onto Rasmus.

 

...and all you need is MLB to expand the roster size to 27 to make your example work. I'm also having a hard time believing one can expect a combined 12.3 WAR from Lawrie, Rasmus and Morrow going forward in 2015 by cherry picking their 2012 and 2013 seasons and keep a straight face while doing it.

[jays76]

That's exactly what I am talking about....lots of assumption and speculation , everything goes right mentality, when does everything go right as you want/expect? Hutch was terrible at times last year and very jekyl and hyde, there is no guarantee he will take off, and stroman may regress in his first full year as the league adjusts. Sanchez and Norris are unknowns as starters , that is a fact, more major ?. MB and dickey are steady but unspectacular 4.00 ish era guys at this point.

 

Also assuming a 34 year old bautista does not regress, reyes is what 32 and was poor at times last year, will Saunders put it together, will Donaldson keep the pace of his last 2 seasons? The offense on paper looks elite...but you can never know for sure either. we better hope the Offense is legit and injuries don't pile up at once like last year.

 

Pretty sobering and realistic assessment, obviously we're hoping everyone plays up to their ability or even exceeds expectations but this could be our team. Regardless we need help and need to plug holes even if everybody performed up to snuff.