Source: Blue Jays in dialogue with Robertson and/or Gregerson

[jays76]

Waste of money throwing away that much on a reliever. Sign McCarthy or Liriano, leave Sanchez in the pen as an effective set up guy. Sign Jed Lowrie and bring back Casey Janssen for 4-5M on a 1yr contract, for all the s*** that gets heaped on him he was pretty damn effective minus the last few mths of last season. There will be no adjustment required coming in for him and it's not a huge risk on a cheap 1yr deal. If it blows up make a mid season adjustment..

[JFD]

Waste of money throwing away that much on a reliever. Sign McCarthy or Liriano, leave Sanchez in the pen as an effective set up guy. Sign Jed Lowrie and bring back Casey Janssen for 4-5M on a 1yr contract, for all the s*** that gets heaped on him he was pretty damn effective minus the last few mths of last season. There will be no adjustment required coming in for him and it's not a huge risk on a cheap 1yr deal. If it blows up make a mid season adjustment..

 

mid season adjustment? gross.. going into the season prepared for success would be nice for a change..

[nonamejays]

I would rather they go out and sign a bunch of mediocre free agent pitchers on the cheap or give them spring training invites than sign a "legit" one for more than 5 per.

 

Worst case scenario is that the suck and you cut most of them by May and bring up guys like Norris and throw them in the pen.

[TwistedLogic]

I'd like Cotts and Grilli on 1 year deals. 34 and 38 years old, so I can't see why either of them would get much.

 

Cotts, despite always having good peripherals, always pitches like s***. Outside of 2013, he's always had an incredibly bloated ERA. I know we're supposed to look at the advanced stats, and it almost feels blasphemous even typing this, but when it comes to relievers who make a living off small sample sizes, stats like his matter. Nobody's going to care what his RA9 WAR is or what his xFIP is, if everytime he comes into the game, he gives up runs. This is somewhat of a problem with guys like Todd Redmond as well. His fangraphs page always looks good, but when is the last time you actually felt comfortable with him coming into the game?

 

I'm not gonna stop spamming Jesse Crain's name until I get banned or until someone else signs him. The guy's been an absolute beast since 2010, and he's gotten better every year. He's coming off injury, so he should be dirt cheap, and probably best of all, he comes with a free ******** maple syrup narrative attached. Think of all the Wilneresque headlines! "The Jays trade Brett Lawrie, somehow start 2015 with 4x as many Canadians"

 

Outside of Crain, who I think is a must-sign if his medicals check out, I like Neshek as a buy-high, and Grilli, Romo and Ogando as buy-lows.

 

None of these guys should cost as much as even Gregerson.

[Key22]

Cole Hamels, Chase Utley (2B) and Papelbon. Adds 10 WAR to the team and $50m to the payroll. Trade Reyes and some prospects back - Reyes is to offset a contact). Sign Lowrie for SS.

 

Sign Grilli, Neshak Romo.

 

SS and 2B solved. Ace - solved, closer solved. Waiting for one of those "Johnson, Reyes, MB" mega trades.

[TwistedLogic]

Cole Hamels, Chase Utley (2B) and Papelbon. Adds 10 WAR to the team and $50m to the payroll. Trade Reyes and some prospects back - Reyes is to offset a contact). Sign Lowrie for SS.

 

Sign Grilli, Neshak Romo.

 

SS and 2B solved. Ace - solved, closer solved. Waiting for one of those "Johnson, Reyes, MB" mega trades.

 

No offense, but this is one of the worst proposals put forth so far this offseason. Not only would it be the dumbest thing for this front office to ever do, taking on that much payroll again, do you have any idea what kind of prospect capital you'd have to send the other way to even make that trade? Ruben Amaro Jr wants a package like Norris, Pompey and Osuna for Hamels alone (that might not even get it done).

 

The moves you think would make this team better would actually obliterate the future of the franchise.

 

It's moot anyways. Rogers would never sanction that much new money for the payroll, and Alex would never give up the assets he'd be asked to give up to make that trade happen.

[baloojayz]

Cole Hamels, Chase Utley (2B) and Papelbon. Adds 10 WAR to the team and $50m to the payroll. Trade Reyes and some prospects back - Reyes is to offset a contact). Sign Lowrie for SS.

 

Sign Grilli, Neshak Romo.

 

SS and 2B solved. Ace - solved, closer solved. Waiting for one of those "Johnson, Reyes, MB" mega trades.

Rolf, ok not going to happen for SO many reasons. Would be nice though.

Closers gotta be developed internally IMO. Sign some guys for 7th 8th inning work of similar capability to Loup. Let em battle it out. Janssen showed up outta nowhere.

Cecil

Sanchez

Loup

2 signed relievers

Someone wins the job outta spring training.

Then we have Drabek Redmond and Estrada for long relief, spot duty, and mop-up.

[Key22]

I guess I needed a sarcasm sign.

[TwistedLogic]

Speaking of terrible deals, I'm like a coke addict for the idea of trading for Kemp. I know how bad of a move it is, I know it makes no sense for the team, I know that the contract is an albatross, I know it would quickly tie the team down and I know he doesn't have a lick of defense left in him, and I would still spaz the f*** out if we got him.

 

http://i.gyazo.com/8e5a57e1d58c2fcb185d7add91048cef.png

 

Sigh. The heart wants what the heart wants.

[Jimcanuck]

I'd like Cotts and Grilli on 1 year deals. 34 and 38 years old, so I can't see why either of them would get much.

 

Cotts could get 2 years since he's a lefty though.

 

Guy - Projected FIP

 

Grilli - 3.42

Cecil - 3.06 - LHP

Loup - 3.59 - LHP

Cotts - 3.47 - LHP but seems to have reverse or neutral splits (not sure)

Sanchez - 4.53 (way wrong if he's an RP)

Estrada - 3.98

Redmond - 4.26

Hendriks - 3.71

Delabar - 4.21

Jenkins - 4.31

Drabek - 4.24

Rasmussen - 4.27

 

Obviously you'd want a second backend RHP is Sanchez is starting. Gregerson destroys RHB but... money. Logan Ondrusek could be a decent cheap option coming off of a gross ERA but ok DIPS w/ K rate.

Likely this is the area that I would target in trading Navarro - a RHRP with backend potential.

 

Do those projections take into account Martin behind the dish. I can see Martin making a significant impact on the RP corps, particularly someone like Delabar.

[Jimcanuck]

Rolf, ok not going to happen for SO many reasons. Would be nice though.

Closers gotta be developed internally IMO. Sign some guys for 7th 8th inning work of similar capability to Loup. Let em battle it out. Janssen showed up outta nowhere.

Cecil

Sanchez

Loup

2 signed relievers

Someone wins the job outta spring training.

Then we have Drabek Redmond and Estrada for long relief, spot duty, and mop-up.

 

Jenkins before Drabek at this point

[Laika]

Cotts, despite always having good peripherals, always pitches like s***. Outside of 2013, he's always had an incredibly bloated ERA. I know we're supposed to look at the advanced stats, and it almost feels blasphemous even typing this, but when it comes to relievers who make a living off small sample sizes, stats like his matter.

 

No when it comes to predicting future performance.

 

Also,

 

Cotts career ERA = 4.05

FIP = 4.25

xFIP = 4.08

 

I don't even know what you're talking about. You always write these lines and lines of text which never seem to surround any convincing, thoughtful points. I think you should try to be more concise, more thoughtful, and more researched. To be honest it just seems like you type a mini-essay based on what's at the front of your mind, right or wrong.

[Laika]

Do those projections take into account Martin behind the dish. I can see Martin making a significant impact on the RP corps, particularly someone like Delabar.

 

No they don't; yes he could.

[Laika]

I'd rather go out and sign five underperforming starters, turn them into relievers and see what sticks to the wall.

A lot of very good closers used to be below average starters with control problems.

 

By allowing them to reduce their pitch selection to two pitches, and only have to pitch one inning a game, they can often add a couple mph in velocity, and get past hitters one time.

 

Anyone you see on the free agent list?

 

It's a pretty good idea especially if you can identify failed starters like Morrow with a plus (or plus-plus) FB and a true out-pitch.

[wamco]

sign shields instead of robertson

[wamco]

Apparently because of his delivery, he is able to release the ball closer to home plate than other pitchers. IT doesn't seem like much, but remember baseball is a game of inches.

 

http://www.sbnation.com/2012/5/4/2999268/david-robertson-mariano-rivera-injury-yankees-closer

 

Actually, that is sex

[jays4life19]

Actually, that is sex

 

lmao

[Deadpool]

Doesn't mean they should necessarily sign him, but it could be sort of defensible. Personally I'd rather spread the risk out a bit but I dunno. ?

 

I wouldn't be like "well, season's over guys!" if they signed him, but, like you, I think that money could be better allocated.

[Horses Fart]

I would stay the f*** clear of Robertson for that kind of cash. I would love to see Crain and Neshek added at some point, whats the price tag on both of these guys??

[GD]

Nobody's going to care what his RA9 WAR is or what his xFIP is, if everytime he comes into the game, he gives up runs.

 

RA9 WAR is the runs allowed version of WAR, so if he gave up runs ... yeah, RA9 WAR would matter, lol.

[jaysblue]

I'd like to see Gregerson brought over here - the guy has been one of the most consistent late inning relievers in baseball. Whether they make him the closer or setup man, he'll be valuable. Likely will require a 3 year deal I'd say.

 

As for Robertson, I'm not sure I'd sign him for 4-5 years over $40 million. I mean the thought of him having a season like BJ Ryan's 2006 season definitely is tempting; however he could also blowout his elbow in the next year or two and barely pitch. Handing out big deals to relievers is risky. I'd rather let Brett Cecil have a shot in the closers role - though that means if he has success, he'll be way more expensive in 2016.

[BigBounceyBlueBalls]

Sign shields his starts will take off 32 to 64 innings off the pen min. Subtraction by addition! Lol

[jaysblue]

Sign shields his starts will take off 32 to 64 innings off the pen min. Subtraction by addition! Lol

 

I'd rather throw that kind of money at a starter agreed - not sure the Jays have enough payroll space for Shields, though I'd definitely offer Masterson a similar deal to what Phil Hughes got last offseason.

[BigBounceyBlueBalls]

I mean if you're gonna throw ten mil.+ at a closer/relief pitcher might as well just throw dickey in the pen as a super relief arm. As a soft tossing knuckle ball pitcher what can he pitch like 1-2 innings every second day? 81-162 innings out of the pen from dickey, cool ! Would thier be some kind of reverse dickey effect for him too! Lol

[jaysblue]

I mean if you're gonna throw ten mil.+ at a closer/relief pitcher might as well just throw dickey in the pen as a super relief arm. As a soft tossing knuckle ball pitcher what can he pitch like 1-2 innings every second day? 81-162 innings out of the pen from dickey, cool ! Would thier be some kind of reverse dickey effect for him too! Lol

 

Dickey won't allow that to happen lol.

[BigBounceyBlueBalls]

f*** dickey who gives a s*** what he wants! Lol

[Laika]

What do you guys think of Robertson's mechanics?

 

His release is obviously very unique (late) and his arm looks really late at foot plant:

 

 

I'm not the best at evaluating that kind of stuff but I know that showing the ball to CF at plant is a red flag. And I know that having the pitching elbow behind the shoulder at foot plant is bad. And I know that the pitching arm forearm should be horizontal when the trunk starts to rotate...

 

I believe that ideal (low-stress) mechanics involve being "cocked" at foot plant and showing the ball to the corner base. Much less stress on the elbow.

 

http://img.bleacherreport.net/img/slides/photos/003/563/831/hi-res-4fe1310ac4b859af040778d9aefbcb88_crop_north.jpg?w=630&h=420&q=75

 

But, of course, stress can = more velocity. Lots of pitchers intentionally "stay long" and keep their arm "extended" as long as possible, showing the ball to CF at foot plant. Matt Harvey has bad mechanics I believe.

 

http://www.thefantasyfix.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/05/matt-harvey.jpg

[jaysblue]

f*** dickey who gives a s*** what he wants! Lol

 

I know, though he'll bitch and complain if you ever moved him out of the rotation. Plus, it's not the most viable move anyways. He's still a very good starter who provides quality innings out of the rotation. Moving him to the bullpen and having him pitch every second day like you're suggesting doesn't make any sense.

[jaysblue]

http://www.chrisoleary.com/projects/Baseball/Pitching/Images/Pitchers/BJRyan/BJRyan_2008_002.jpg

 

http://www.thestar.com/content/dam/thestar/sports/baseball/2009/07/08/blue_jays_release_former_closer_bj_ryan/jays_bj_ryan_helps_nail_downvictory.jpeg

 

Thought on BJ Ryan's mechanics?

[Laika]

BJ had absolutely garbage mechanics. The "inverted L", as it's called. The poor mechanics made his arm really late - leading to really forceful arm rotation (elbow and shoulder stress).

 

Really, it was a miracle that his career lasted as long as it did.