Source: Blue Jays in dialogue with Robertson and/or Gregerson

[jayswin11]

A closer that you can count on is a big deal. It's important.

[Captain Adama]

I hope you mean Kenley and not Casey lol

 

Whaddya think this is? A sportsnet comment section?

[SAAviour]

With our depth in prospects I'd be ok with completely punting the draft this year and giving away our top 3 picks, but 10-15 mil per season for a closer might not be the best way to do it.

[GreekFatAss]

A closer that you can count on is a big deal. It's important.

 

Any good player is a big deal regardless where it is. However a 3 WAR player who pitches 60-70 IP is not as common as one who pitches 180+ a season so getting that "big deal" closer is pretty much a pipe dream.

[HERPDERP]

Either way we need really good relievers. Go look at the Tigers last season for an example of what happens when you don't.

[Captain Adama]

A closer that you can count on is a big deal. It's important.

 

Not important enough to be giving out 4 year deals over 10 AAV to pitchers who'll pitchh at most 80 IP a season

[TwistedLogic]

Honestly, just pluck any guy off the waiver wire and have him pitch in the bullpen. I'd rather that than commit anything more than 3 years to a reliever not named Kimbrel, Chapman, or Jansen

 

Not sure I'd want them to sign any of those guys for what they'd cost either. Unless my prediction is completely off base, you can probably get both Lowrie and Crain, or all three of Crain, Neshek and Medlen, in how much Robertson alone will cost per year.

[burlingtonbandit]

I'd like Gregerson if the price is not astronomical. He could close to keep Cecil's arb salary from inflating for 2016.

 

I think you put the best guy in the bullpen regardless of contracts.. Maximizing wins is more important than keeping down a guy's salary in arb years later.

[Boxcar]

A closer that you can count on is a big deal. It's important.

 

Good relievers turn into good closers. Doolittle, McGee, Robertson, Benoit, Janssen, Britton, Melancon, Holland, Jansen. All of these guys were 7th/8th inning guys who became cheap studs closing. Cecil is more than good enough.

[Captain Adama]

Not sure I'd want them to sign any of those guys for what they'd cost either. Unless my prediction is completely off base, you can probably get both Lowrie and Crain, or all three of Crain, Neshek and Medlen, in how much Robertson alone will cost per year.

 

I'd agree in conventional terms, but those are guys I'd trust to actually stay good for a while, even though they'd still cost too much, if they wanted a 4 year deal at 15 AAV. I'd jump at that. (Even though they'd never accept that)

[canadiansportsjunkie]

Not sure I'd want them to sign any of those guys for what they'd cost either. Unless my prediction is completely off base, you can probably get both Lowrie and Crain, or all three of Crain, Neshek and Medlen, in how much Robertson alone will cost per year.

 

Future is so hard to predict with closers however in a imaginary world if you knew Kimbrel would continue....signing him for 4 / 42 is a complete steal and no brainer

[Captain Adama]

Future is so hard to predict with closers however in a imaginary world if you knew Kimbrel would continue....signing him for 4 / 42 is a complete steal and no brainer

 

What TwistedLogic is saying, in the stupid reality of the baseball market, his asking price would be much higher than that, and some team would probably sign him at that asking price.

 

Although you summed up my earlier post quite well here.

[canadiansportsjunkie]

What TwistedLogic is saying, in the stupid reality of the baseball market, his asking price would be much higher than that, and some team would probably sign him at that asking price.

 

Although you summed up my earlier post quite well here.

 

Well of course if the top 3 went to market today the contracts would be higher but they are proven closers. I doubt all 3 have long success as closers are hard to gauge but if Kimbrel continues hes worth every penny even if his contract is 4 / 50

 

When I posted your post wasn't visible. I saw it afterwards.

[JFD]

sign all the relievers. all of them.

[RealAccountant]

Honestly if we sign both these guys I do not see how we are not going to make the playoffs next year. That maybe the best jays team ever.

[Laika]

I'd like Cotts and Grilli on 1 year deals. 34 and 38 years old, so I can't see why either of them would get much.

 

Cotts could get 2 years since he's a lefty though.

 

Guy - Projected FIP

 

Grilli - 3.42

Cecil - 3.06 - LHP

Loup - 3.59 - LHP

Cotts - 3.47 - LHP but seems to have reverse or neutral splits (not sure)

Sanchez - 4.53 (way wrong if he's an RP)

Estrada - 3.98

Redmond - 4.26

Hendriks - 3.71

Delabar - 4.21

Jenkins - 4.31

Drabek - 4.24

Rasmussen - 4.27

 

Obviously you'd want a second backend RHP is Sanchez is starting. Gregerson destroys RHB but... money. Logan Ondrusek could be a decent cheap option coming off of a gross ERA but ok DIPS w/ K rate.

Likely this is the area that I would target in trading Navarro - a RHRP with backend potential.

[JFD]

I'd like Cotts and Grilli on 1 year deals. 34 and 38 years old, so I can't see why either of them would get much.

 

Cotts could get 2 years since he's a lefty though.

 

Guy - Projected FIP

 

Grilli - 3.42

Cecil - 3.06 - LHP

Loup - 3.59 - LHP

Cotts - 3.47 - LHP but seems to have reverse or neutral splits (not sure)

Sanchez - 4.53 (way wrong if he's an RP)

Estrada - 3.98

Redmond - 4.26

Hendriks - 3.71

Delabar - 4.21

Jenkins - 4.31

Drabek - 4.24

Rasmussen - 4.27

 

Obviously you'd want a second backend RHP is Sanchez is starting. Gregerson destroys RHB but... money. Logan Ondrusek could be a decent cheap option coming off of a gross ERA but ok DIPS w/ K rate.

Likely this is the area that I would target in trading Navarro - a RHRP with backend potential.

 

damn, that is one ugly BP. maybe the ugliest ever.

[GD]

Cotts is a good idea.

 

I still like the ideas of Crain/Ogando for cheaper guys.

[Laika]

Cotts is a good idea.

 

I still like the ideas of Crain/Ogando for cheaper guys.

 

Absolutely, if healthy. Huge "if" that we can't really evaluate though.

 

Crain might even take peanuts for a big league deal though.

[JFD]

need to spend money on legit relievers. need some go to guys...

[Laika]

damn, that is one ugly BP. maybe the ugliest ever.

 

It's definitely not good. If they don't sign anybody, 7th worst in baseball according to 2015 Steamer.

 

The bullpen above with Grilli and Cotts is about 1 win better, so more like middle of the pack in MLB. Still possibly the worst in the AL East though (about tied with O's).

[Spanky99]

Sign McCarthy and Lowrie...BP can be set for much cheaper.

[Laika]

I think you can make an OK argument for David Robertson based on the following criteria:

 

- His cost in $ is suppressed by the attached draft pick

- The Blue Jays give up less of a pick to sign him than most teams, since their 1st already went poof with Martin

- The Blue Jays ostensibly need a back-end RHRP

- Robertson is the best RP on the market, and it's not even close

- The Blue Jays are at a place on the projected win curve where it could make sense to pay something like $10M-$15M for 1-1.5 added bullpen WARz.

 

Doesn't mean they should necessarily sign him, but it could be sort of defensible. Personally I'd rather spread the risk out a bit but I dunno. Might not be the absolute worst thing ever. Robertson is filthy.

 

If he wants to come here and most of the other obvious popular FA targets like Lowrie don't, you upgrade the team where you can, right?

[43211234]

If the Blue Jays sign Robertson do they give up the pick they'll get for Melky or their secound rounder?

[Frenchsoup]

If the Blue Jays sign Robertson do they give up the pick they'll get for Melky or their secound rounder?

 

2nd rounder

[JFD]

who cares about draft picks. this team is on the cusp of greatness. don't cheap out on pitching now...

[Laika]

If the Blue Jays sign Robertson do they give up the pick they'll get for Melky or their secound rounder?

 

"... With the exception of draft selections awarded to a Club

pursuant to Major League Rule 4©(2), all of a Club’s draft selections

will be subject to forfeiture pursuant to subsection 4©(i)

above, including draft selections obtained through assignments,

draft selections obtained in the Competitive Balance Lotteries

and Forfeited Draft Pick Lotteries, and draft selections awarded

as compensation pursuant to subsection 4( above."

 

4(:

"The former Club of a Qualified Free Agent

subject to compensation shall receive an amateur draft choice

(“Special Draft Choice”) in the next Rule 4 Draft. Clubs that have

lost Qualified Free Agents subject to compensation shall receive a

Special Draft Choice in the reverse order of their won-lost percentage

in the recently completed season, with the selections beginning

immediately following the last regular selection in the first round of

Rule 4 Draft."

 

It appears that they would lose the Melky compensation pick.

[Frenchsoup]

The 2 guys i would go after would be Ronald Belisario and Neal Cotts. Cotts had a down year(arencibia) and Beli has been solid for the past 5 years.

 

Belisarios last 5 years with SIERA

 

2009- 3.43 SIERA

2010- 3.34 SIERA

2012- 2.87 SIERA

2013- 3.46 SIERA

2014- 3.22 SIERA

 

He has got the heavy sinker and we got Russ Martin to frame up the low strike, go get them AA!

[Laika]

The 2 guys i would go after would be Ronald Belisario and Neal Cotts. Cotts had a down year(arencibia) and Beli has been solid for the past 5 years.

 

Belisarios last 5 years with SIERA

 

2009- 3.43 SIERA

2010- 3.34 SIERA

2012- 2.87 SIERA

2013- 3.46 SIERA

2014- 3.22 SIERA

 

He has got the heavy sinker and we got Russ Martin to frame up the low strike, go get them AA!

 

Belisario is a really good buy low target. ~5.5 ERA vs. ~3.5 DIPS.

[AdamGreenwood]

I'd rather go out and sign five underperforming starters, turn them into relievers and see what sticks to the wall.

A lot of very good closers used to be below average starters with control problems.

 

By allowing them to reduce their pitch selection to two pitches, and only have to pitch one inning a game, they can often add a couple mph in velocity, and get past hitters one time.