Baseball Prospectus: 2015 Toronto Blue Jays Top 10 Prospects

[TheHurl]

Pardon my ignorance, but what happened to our draft pick DJ Davis?

 

K-Rates the single biggest MiLB statistical tell for hitters. I learned years ago after falling in love with every single "Toolsy" CF prospect that ever existed. If they are going through the minors and the K-Rates started poor and gets worse as they progress, then they likely are never going to make any dent at all (I give him a 0-5 percent chance of making it as anything but a defensive CF...and we know by now not to listen to a single defensive scouting report in the minors). The one exception to the rising K rate theory is when they are a 70+ power (35+ HR's can do a lot to help out even a 30% K rate.

 

Now there are some players that are toolsy, start out poor in the K-Rates, but they are improving, but the results still aren't there. These guys should get your attention. I missed it in 2013 with Pompey (Kudos to NJH who still continued to rank him)

[metafour]

I told you guys a million times not to underrate Labourt. 6'4 lefty who legitimately SITS in the mid 90's, with a solid looking slider and changeup as well. There are a lot of people who really like him, as you can see.

[Governator]

Apparently our future is a bunch of #3/4 starters and average bats. I guess on the flip side they could fizzle and end up being High School Coaches.

[GreekFatAss]

Apparently our future is a bunch of #3/4 starters and average bats. I guess on the flip side they could fizzle and end up being High School Coaches.

 

You find me a rotation with 5 deep in #3 starters and I will show you a rotation that will be pitching in the playoffs on a consistent basis.

[Laika]

No matter what order you put the names in, the Blue Jays kind of have a stacked system right now. Again, it's super pitching heavy, but when you can trade arms for Josh Donaldson and Michael Saunders, who gives a f***...

 

Norris

Pompey

Sanchez

Hoffman

Osuna

Pentecost

Travis

Nay

Reid-Foley

Castro

Smoral

Alford

Smith Jr.

Cole

Tellez

Urena

Labourt

Tirado

Borucki

Boyd

Jansen

Hollon

 

Some other potential RP arms (Stilson, DeJong? etc.)

 

Bench Factors:

Jimenez

Burns

Berti

Schimpf

Lugo?

Dean?

[GreekFatAss]

The biggest thing about the Jays system is. We are so top heavy in big time pitching prospects that everyone ignores the glut of prospects who should be solid bench/pen guys that other systems would be lauded for producing.

[Governator]

Question: How many pitching prospects get a realistic role of a #1 starter? Close to none?

[Laika]

Question: How many pitching prospects get a realistic role of a #1 starter? Close to none?

 

Realistic role as #1? None, ever. Never should that happen.

[Governator]

Realistic role as #1? None, ever. Never should that happen.

 

Yea I have never seen it in a prospects outlook.

[burlingtonbandit]

I think BP took the bigger picture view and didn't factor in performance in 2014 as highly as some of the people on this board did. I remember listening to a podcast with Jason Parks and he was still really high on Tirado even though he wasn't performing well. Some of these really young dominicans can have a huge culture shock living in cold weather places like Lansing and it can set them back, but they are so young and the stuff is still really good that they are still good prospects.

 

Personally, Id have Tirado lower and guys like Travis and DSJ higher but its just opinion really. I see some of you having Borucki pretty high but reports on him say his FB is 87-88 with an average curveball really being his only decent pitch. Numbers in the minor leagues can really be misleading sometimes.

[TheHurl]

He sucks, but is still probably a better prospect than Tirado.

 

If you are going to rank Sanchez over Norris...may as well ignore control completely and rank Tirado

[TheHurl]

Strasburg may have been the last one?

 

It's rare...as it should be.

 

This is the BA draft write up for Strasburg. They still come short of calling him a number 1

 

There's no doubt that Strasburg is the best college pitching prospect since Mark Prior came out of Southern California in 2001. Prior's career illustrates that no amateur pitcher is guaranteed long-term professional success, but Strasburg is the closest to a sure thing that scouts have ever seen. Major league organizations may not see a prospect like Strasburg for another 20 or 30 years, so the Nationals will not let him pass with the No. 1 pick.

[King]

Would you guys be interested in the BJMB top prospect poll rankings again? This time, I would likely only do 15 instead of 25 though (25 way to long, most people stopped caring after 10). I tried to do the midseason one but it was skewed for a few reasons.

 

 

Would generate good discussion, I think

[burlingtonbandit]

Borucki was up to 94 this past year. He has an above average changeup and developing curve...above his control/command is above average. He's similar to Justin Nicolino but with the potential to have a better FB.

 

Throwing one pitch at 94 doesn't make a fastball that sits at 88 much better. The thing he has going for him is projection but his best pitch is 67-68 MPH and he is going to need to add a few MPH if he wants to get hitters out at a big league level. One guy that follows Van games said he mixes speeds well but hitters time him up pretty well the 2nd time through. He can be a guy to keep an eye on but he's no Nicolino.

[TheHurl]

Would you guys be interested in the BJMB top prospect poll rankings again? This time, I would likely only do 15 instead of 25 though (25 way to long, most people stopped caring after 10). I tried to do the midseason one but it was skewed for a few reasons.

 

 

Would generate good discussion, I think

 

Go back to the old way so there is historic data for the guys that made picks. Just open it up to everyone rather than hand picking like we used to.

 

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Av3moDN3hAuQdDFzVGhadWtXRXZpdmdOXzNvT29Ha2c&hl=en_GB#gid=0

[burlingtonbandit]

He doesn't sit 88. And it wasn't 1 pitch at 94. Sits 89-92. In a few games later in the season his velocity came down to 88 or so later in games, but I wouldn't worry about that considering it's his first season since TJ. I think you'll see more consistent velocity from him in 2015...and you'll change your tune.

 

Did you see him first hand? Because a guy who goes to the games who charts pitchers said he gives up some pretty loud contact and his FB and Change were below average. I think he is a guy who can take the next step but I don't see him as a top 20 prospect.

[TheHurl]

Did you see him first hand? Because a guy who goes to the games who charts pitchers said he gives up some pretty loud contact and his FB and Change were below average. I think he is a guy who can take the next step but I don't see him as a top 20 prospect.

 

I've heard slightly better things. Basically he's a Sean Nolin type, without the change, but a little better control. I think he's a guy that will never wow prospect evaluators because his ceiling isn't huge but he might put up numbers that make you wonder why.

[burlingtonbandit]

I've heard slightly better things. Basically he's a Sean Nolin type, without the change, but a little better control. I think he's a guy that will never wow prospect evaluators because his ceiling isn't huge but he might put up numbers that make you wonder why.

 

Yeah thats what I would have him as too but he's a long way off from Sean Nolin as a guy who hasn't even pitched in full season ball. We saw Nicolino's Ks crumble once he reached AA.

[Atothe]

Borucki is a control pitcher and Hurl is right. Nolin type until he fully recovers majority of his past velocity

[GreekFatAss]

It would sure be nice if he regained his velocity and we have ourselves another Nolin type on our hands. How else can we acquire Sonny Gray next year?

[Chappy]

Nope. But I've listened to a couple of his starts on miLB radio and he was sitting low 90's and got it up to 94 a few times.

 

I'm confident that his 2015 will make people less skeptical.

 

Grant is that you?

[JuniorFelix]

Where would most of you guys have Barreto if he wasn't a part of the Donaldson deal. While obviously young, was for myself the hardest part to lose in the Donaldson deal. I would have had him as our 2nd or 3rd best positional prospect behind Pompey and perhaps Max.

[burlingtonbandit]

Where would most of you guys have Barreto if he wasn't a part of the Donaldson deal. While obviously young, was for myself the hardest part to lose in the Donaldson deal. I would have had him as our 2nd or 3rd best positional prospect behind Pompey and perhaps Max.

 

Definitely better than Max. Don't really get the love for Pentecost tbh. Sure he was drafted really high but he is an injured catcher who was pretty bad in SS A ball and still has a ton of work to get better considering the position.

[Jimcanuck]

Is it time for the annual sleeper thread?

 

Also, Alford is the one to watch in 2015

[King]

Is it time for the annual sleeper thread?

 

Also, Alford is the one to watch in 2015

 

Prior to the 2015 season

[Captain Adama]

Definitely better than Max. Don't really get the love for Pentecost tbh. Sure he was drafted really high but he is an injured catcher who was pretty bad in SS A ball and still has a ton of work to get better considering the position.

 

I don't know either, I guess the love for Pentecost comes from the fact that he's a good defensive catcher and should be able to hit rather well. As for the pretty bad; I guess you're right...100 wRC+ is pretty bad, but hey, small sample size right?

[ElNik2013]

Pretty decent system despite dealing at least one guy who would've made the top 10.

 

 

Agree with those who would have Castro over Labourt. Labourt seems like a legit guy, but he had to be demoted last year from Lansing to Vancouver.

 

I expect Nay, Jansen, Urena and Alford to climb to the top 10 soon, but we'll see.

 

Looking forward to seeing how fast Castro, Hoffman, Osuna and Pentecost move up the system, if at all. Also, lower level guys like Borucki, Smoral, Labourt, Hollon, Sean Reid-Foley, Tellez and others.

 

 

Would you guys say the system is back to 2012 levels?

Edited December 6, 2014 by ElNik2013

[Jimcanuck]

Pretty decent system despite dealing at least one guy who would've made the top 10.

 

 

Agree with those who would have Castro over Labourt. Labourt seems like a legit guy, but he had to be demoted last year from Lansing to Vancouver.

 

I expect Nay, Jansen, Urena and Alford to climb to the top 10 soon, but we'll see.

 

Looking forward to seeing how fast Castro, Hoffman, Osuna and Pentocost move up the system, if at all. Also, lower level guys like Borucki, Smoral, Labourt, Hollon, Sean Reid-Foley, Tellez and others.

 

 

Would you guys say the system is back to 2012 levels?

 

Not quite but getting there. Only the top 4 in the current group are certain to be effective MLB players, as compared to the top 6 or 7 in 2012?

 

I think you mean 2011.

 

d'Arnaud, Gose, Molina, Marisnick, Hechavarria, McGuire, Hutchison, Norris, Nicolino, Syndergaard

 

It's not close to that level IMO

[ElNik2013]

Not quite but getting there. Only the top 4 in the current group are certain to be effective MLB players, as compared to the top 6 or 7 in 2012?

 

I think you mean 2011.

 

d'Arnaud, Gose, Molina, Marisnick, Hechavarria, McGuire, Hutchison, Norris, Nicolino, Syndergaard

 

It's not close to that level IMO

 

 

 

Who knows, I guess it would depend on which list we're looking at.

 

 

It's still impressive given all the 'spects they traded away in the latter part of 2012.

 

 

Also, who were these 6 or 7 guys you're talking about?

[Jimcanuck]

Who knows, I guess it would depend on which list we're looking at.

 

 

It's still impressive given all the 'spects they traded away in the latter part of 2012.

 

 

Also, who were these 6 or 7 guys you're talking about?

 

'6 or 7' was just a turn of phrase

 

maybe the best way to compare the farm from 2011 to today is to compare say the #10 from 2011 with the #10 today - Syndergaard vs Tirado

 

or maybe base it on how many Jays are in the BA top 200 as compared to previous years

 

offhand the current prospect list is < 2011/2012