Why did the Orioles do so much better than us this year?

[ElNik2013]

I'm thinking of starting a thread titled "Why did the Rays and Red Sox do worse than the Jays this year"?

 

Meh, who cares, I don't that's for sure.

[saskjayfan]

I'm surprised no one has mentioned Steve Pearce, brought in 4.9 WAR in less than 400PA.

 

career years from guys you don't expect it are always huge. Carp played extremely well for the sox last year posting an .885 OPS...but followed that up with a .519. You look at the orioles and the Jays and the great year by pearce and vastly superior bullpen that allowed them to win big games were huge. Machado played more games than lawrie. Wieters only played 26 games, but when you add up the man games lost by janssen, melky, reyes, lind, EE, Rasmus, Morrow it was more than 136 games. Having multiple guys miss time was huge for the Jays because you're stopping and starting. Even when you come back it takes players time to hit their stride even though they are in the lineup.

 

Winning the close games can arguably be attributed somewhat to managerial decisions...Buck vs Gibby.

[saskjayfan]

You're looking at the wrong thing

 

I said their STARTERS were mediocre. Their STARTERS were 13th in ERA. Their STARTERS were 28th in xFIP

 

(As a team they were better because of the bullpen.)

 

xFIP does nothing to explain the past of why a team won or lost. The only thing that matters is actual runs allowed. It doesn't matter if their pitching was lucky or not. As a predictive indicator of what you think they will do next year xFIP has meaning, but it does nothing to explain the past. The orioles were 3rd in AL ERA, which is a big reason why they are in the post season. I'm glad the O's are in. I don't think they can repeat next year and I'd rather have the O's in vs the Yanks, red sox or Rays.

[saskjayfan]

Oh noes!

 

They're doooooomed!

 

 

The only 4 people they definitely lose (assuming they don't re-sign impending FAs) are Markakis (if they decline his option), Cruz, Hardy, AMiller and DYoung. Everyone else, including their bullpen logjam, is back. Lots of arby cases, even in the pen, along with options on guys, so they can pick and choose where they save money ... but with all the arby cases re-signed to estimated arby deals (rather than extensions), they would be under this year's payroll by about $9M.

 

They could have a full season from Wieters and a full, effective season from Machado. A full season of De Aza. Young guys like Walker and Schoop should see improvements. Bundy comes into play.

 

Attendance continues to climb. Their payroll jumped $8M in 2013, and $15M for 2014. Between declining options/non-tendering arby bullpen guys, buying out Markakis and payroll bumps, they could have $20M or so to play with (just a guess there ... but it's possible they'll free up substantial payroll room).

 

They have plenty of opportunity to make a go of it for next year.

 

I could see them bringing Markakis back on an extension at a lower yearly amount (they like him, he likes them, not a huge demand for him), getting a guy like Drew, who could easily bounce back, and will provide that defense they love, and then they're relying on one of Pearce, Davis and Walker to produce at decent rate to not miss a beat from this year.

 

there's no doubt the O's can compete, but expecting the bullpen and starters to produce at the same level is a big ask. Asking a guy who had a career WAR of .2 coming in at the age of 31 and posting a 5 WAR this season to repeat is a big ask.

[Arkadium]

xFIP does nothing to explain the past of why a team won or lost. The only thing that matters is actual runs allowed. It doesn't matter if their pitching was lucky or not. As a predictive indicator of what you think they will do next year xFIP has meaning, but it does nothing to explain the past. The orioles were 3rd in AL ERA, which is a big reason why they are in the post season. I'm glad the O's are in. I don't think they can repeat next year and I'd rather have the O's in vs the Yanks, red sox or Rays.

 

This. I have no f***ing idea why he would mention xFIP in this case.

[GD]

10th worst in FIP- and strikeouts, walks and home runs all actually happened

[RealAccountant]

At the end of the day, is the run differential not the defining stat? I mean all the hitter stats are for runs scored by a team, and the opposite for Pitching. To me a team that has a run differential of 111 is pretty damn good. The Orioles gave up a 100 less runs this year, I think offensively both teams were practically even. It came down to

 

1) Better defense

2) Better pitching management

3) Better bullpen

 

I think thats pretty much it. Our defense up the middle was horrible, and that is the first priority. The catcher, the shortstop and the center fielder. We were below average in every category.

[dineke]

Because we're the Blue Jays.

[jaysfan2014]

Oh noes!

 

They're doooooomed!

 

 

The only 4 people they definitely lose (assuming they don't re-sign impending FAs) are Markakis (if they decline his option), Cruz, Hardy, AMiller and DYoung. Everyone else, including their bullpen logjam, is back. Lots of arby cases, even in the pen, along with options on guys, so they can pick and choose where they save money ... but with all the arby cases re-signed to estimated arby deals (rather than extensions), they would be under this year's payroll by about $9M.

 

They could have a full season from Wieters and a full, effective season from Machado. A full season of De Aza. Young guys like Walker and Schoop should see improvements. Bundy comes into play.

 

Attendance continues to climb. Their payroll jumped $8M in 2013, and $15M for 2014. Between declining options/non-tendering arby bullpen guys, buying out Markakis and payroll bumps, they could have $20M or so to play with (just a guess there ... but it's possible they'll free up substantial payroll room).

 

They have plenty of opportunity to make a go of it for next year.

 

I could see them bringing Markakis back on an extension at a lower yearly amount (they like him, he likes them, not a huge demand for him), getting a guy like Drew, who could easily bounce back, and will provide that defense they love, and then they're relying on one of Pearce, Davis and Walker to produce at decent rate to not miss a beat from this year.

 

Markakis won't be back. And there's likely going to be high demand for Markakis.. you just don't know it, and neither do I. Stephen Drew is garbage and will be lucky to get even a minor-league deal from anyone, especially after his terrible season in Boston & New York.

 

Wieters is not long for Baltimore.. he's a free agent after 2015. And there's questions on Machado because he has already injured both his knees in 2 years..

De Aza was a non-tender candidate, and isn't that great of a player, and is poor defensively. Walker needs more AAA seasoning, and Schoop needs to cut down those K's and actually take a walk for once (a 121/13 K/BB ratio isn't good.. lots of empty ABs.)

 

Attendance in Baltimore is still a LONG ways from where it was in the late 90s, and is unlikely to ever return to those levels.

[jaysfan2014]

there's no doubt the O's can compete, but expecting the bullpen and starters to produce at the same level is a big ask. Asking a guy who had a career WAR of .2 coming in at the age of 31 and posting a 5 WAR this season to repeat is a big ask.

 

And it's going to be difficult for Baltimore to resign those 4 players when they're expected to get larger deals from bigger market ballclubs.

[GeorgiaPeach]

3Ds

 

Depth

Defense

DAT bullpen

 

Funnily enough the BP is also the 3rd most important on my priority list when building a talented team.

[GeorgiaPeach]

or Shields, or Lester,or McCarthy.... someone reasonably good so that in 2016 the rotation is more than an almost 42 yr old Dickey and 4 kids

 

douchebag

 

Or Maeda, Tomas, Hanley, Moncada.....

[GeorgiaPeach]

Won't matter. Tigers will make mincemeat of the O's in the ALDS, especially with a rotation of Price, Scherzer, Porcello and Verlander.

 

Let's hope.

[GeorgiaPeach]

How much money do Beeston and AA need to field a complete team? $200 million? $300 million?

 

Much less. Alex should go back to drafting, IFA market and value trades.

 

At what point is it their fault for wasting the money they have been given (which, by the way, was a top-10 payroll in the league this year)?

 

The fans and media pushed for it.

[GeorgiaPeach]

Mostly Cruz. They won't have him back again next year.. he's going to command far more than Baltimore can afford. If you took his production out, the O's would've likely been closer to the Yanks and Jays in the standings.

 

And they'll add one of the best young arms in baseball to their rotation at zero cost. Plus have the money saved on Cruz and others to spend on another toy.

[nextyear]

Serious question. Almost everyone has understimated them for the past 2 years. And I never saw them (or anyone actualy) running away with the AL East division title this year, but they did.

 

So what was it?

 

Luck? I'm done blaming luck for the Orioles' success. I think it's evened out somewhat.

 

Health? No, they had as many serious injuries as we did. Wieters, Machado and more missed tons of time.

 

Starting pitching? Nope. Baltimore's rotation was mediocre, as expected. Ours was significantly better. We were better by FIP, xFIP, they were better by ERA.

 

Lineup? Nope. wRC+ identical. We scored more runs. Yes their lineup is very good, but ours is as good or slightly better despite some serious slumps this year

 

The manager? Meh. Some will say Schowalter has something that Gibby doesn't. Don't think I agree.

 

Bench/depth - probably, Pearce alone helped save them down the stretch

 

I think it mostly comes down to :

 

Defense - I think this is the main thing. Orioles seem to be much better defensive team. It can take a while to notice this but it sure pays dividends over 162 games. Jones and Markaikis steal hits on a regular basis. Rasmus, Bautista and Melky do not. Even with Machado barely playing, they just have very few poor defensive players, if any. We have several.

 

Bullpen - Ours was so good last year but crashed down to earth in 2014. Until Morrow and Sanchez stabilized it, it was a major weak spot and cost us many games.

 

 

I think you summed it up very well. Defence was the main problem. Defence and pitching go hand in hand. There were many games this year when the pitchers, including the bullpen, made decent pitches and got ground balls that should have been outs but were either not caught or thrown away by the defence.

[TheHurl]

And Ownership. Rogers gets the chance to show they want to win or if they just want to make money

 

I know you don't want to admit that AA is one of the useless ones...but why mention ownership in a thread about why the O's did better than us. In 2011 the O's payroll was $16M greater than ours. In 3 seasons we have jumped over them and this season our payroll was $30M higher than theirs. That's greater than the difference between Detroit, Boston or the LA Angels to the Jays (if you take away the Angels obligations to other teams their payroll is actually equal to the Jays).

 

I wish I could explain the O's success...as BTS pointed out they didn't waste a lot of PA's on completely useless players and that helps. Defense is huge for them (238 of their runs against them were on HR's, that's 320 earned runs on others). I don't give their front office any credit for Pearce as they cut him not once...but twice this year (at least the second time the Jays actually made a move to get him).

[RealAccountant]

I am done with the Orioles hate, it sounds bitter. At the end of the day, Orioles did what the Jays couldn't.

 

being bitter makes us sound bad, I am now actually cheering for their success. The better they do, the more incompetent our GM looks.

[RealAccountant]

Playoffs appearances in AL East since 1994

 

Yankees = 16

RedSox = 10

Orioles = 4

Rays = 4

Jays = 0

[saskjayfan]

The SP didn't perform well. They'll likely be better next year. That bullpen is stacked, and Showalter knows how to use them. It's got quality up and down, and some in reserve. Yes, relievers are flaky ... but they have the guys there to still do well, overall, next year as a pen.

 

The orioles will likely lose some good defensive players due to free agency. Their starting staff that had a drastically lower ERA than fip or xfip will next year again lower their ERA next year. Their bullpen that performed extremely well will not regress to career norms....okay seriously, what drugs are you taking to make this fantasy a reality in your world.

[shortstop]

RA, when u break it down like that...ugh!

 

And that's the bottom line...

 

At some point, AA will be held accountable - he's got 1 season, maybe 2 - if they don't make the playoffs, miracle IMO if he's still around

 

AA will likely axe Gibby next season to save himself some time or try to.

[saskjayfan]

RA, when u break it down like that...ugh!

 

And that's the bottom line...

 

At some point, AA will be held accountable - he's got 1 season, maybe 2 - if they don't make the playoffs, miracle IMO if he's still around

 

AA will likely axe Gibby next season to save himself some time or try to.

 

I'd rather give gibby one more season and axe AA right now. I don't know what their contract situations are, but I'm sure chepo rogers won't get rid of either until they are up.

[TheHurl]

Huh? He was DFA'd, and subsequently waived very early in the regular season, when they underwent a roster crunch. He was quickly resigned to another deal after refusing another team's claim (i.e., he must have talked with the O's brass and understood he was "valued" and would get another chance shortly, so he stuck around).

 

And that's it ... that I know of ... what was the second instance?

 

I was sure that they waived him in the off season but I was wrong he never came off the 40 man. I remember talking about the Jays picking him up so it must have been a "O's considering dropping him" type rumour.

[jaysfan2014]

Playoffs appearances in AL East since 1994

 

Yankees = 16

RedSox = 10

Orioles = 4

Rays = 4

Jays = 0

 

And the Yanks and Red Sox are the only ones with rings.. and the O's appearances were only 1996, 1997, 2012 and 2014, although 2012 should never have happened.. that was a mediocre team that overperformed due to a strong bullpen (their pyth was 82-80) that was exposed vs. the Yankees in the ALDS that year. Not to mention the East was weak that year, with the Jays and Red Sox being awful. Only the 90s teams and 2014 are legit, and the 2014 team is going to get clobbered vs. Detroit, a far more experienced team. If the O's had Machado healthy and Davis not suspended, they'd be a threat.. but they have no shot of beating the Tigers, considering Price and Scherzer are going at least twice in the series if it goes 4 or 5.

 

Two words about the Yanks appearances: Derek Jeter. That's why they have 16 appearances (5 rings)

[Ehh]

WTW.

 

Will to Win.

 

Our players don't have it. Never will.

 

Our core group is an utter and complete failure.

[jaysfan2014]

The orioles will likely lose some good defensive players due to free agency. Their starting staff that had a drastically lower ERA than fip or xfip will next year again lower their ERA next year. Their bullpen that performed extremely well will not regress to career norms....okay seriously, what drugs are you taking to make this fantasy a reality in your world.

 

You're right. Baltimore's SS situation is going to be weaker, with Hardy going to the Yankees or another big market club, for far more money than the O's can afford. Markakis is also gone, as the O's will not exercise his $17.5M option, and will likely get better offers elsewhere. Showalter's been incredibly lucky to have those guys.. but what will he do when ownership closes the checkbook, as I expect they will on Hardy and Markakis, as Baltimore doesn't have the resources to give the money those two will get in free agency?

 

Same problem with Cruz as well. He's not coming back unless the O's want to tie up about 15% of their payroll on him(expecting about $15M for him), which is a bad idea, considering they already blew money on Ubaldo Jimenez's bad deal.

[jaysfan2014]

I am done with the Orioles hate, it sounds bitter. At the end of the day, Orioles did what the Jays couldn't.

 

being bitter makes us sound bad, I am now actually cheering for their success. The better they do, the more incompetent our GM looks.

 

And like 2012, they won't get out of the ALDS. Detroit is far better and experienced than the O's. And speaking of incompetent GMs, you could say the same for Brian Cashman in New York(two years of no playoffs and no farm) and Ben Cherington in Boston(sorry, but there's no excuse for going from a World Series to 90 losses in one season. Someone needs to take the fall in Boston.)

[Smokey]

And speaking of incompetent GMs, you could say the same for Brian Cashman in New York(two years of no playoffs and no farm) and Ben Cherington in Boston(sorry, but there's no excuse for going from a World Series to 90 losses in one season. Someone needs to take the fall in Boston.)

 

So Cashman and Cherington are both incompetent yet their teams have been much more successful than the Jays... What would you say contributed to that? A more committed ownership?

[jaysfan2014]

You always lose focus on what the topic is, just scrambling for whatever negative view you can cast toward another team. We're talking comparative to now. The reality is, despite the MASN issues, they have increased interest from recent levels, which results in increased revenues and increased ability to support an increased payroll. A lot of increasing there, like your increasing inability to make a cogent counterpoint. It doesn't matter that they're not drawing as well as they did in 1998.

 

Holy troller.

 

2014 payroll for the O's was close to $115-120M with benefits. Unless the O's either get a better TV deal or significantly higher attendance, they're not going to keep hiking payroll, especially as their window to compete closes after this season. Considering the formula of spending about 50% of revenue on player salaries, Baltimore is over budget. They'll need a deep playoff run to make a profit.. according to Forbes(I understand they may not be accurate), the O's barely made money last year at a $100M payroll.

[jaysfan2014]

So Cashman and Cherington are both incompetent yet their teams have been much more successful than the Jays... What would you say contributed to that? A more committed ownership?

 

IN 2014. Toronto is still in better shape for 2015.. although Boston should rebound in 2016-17. New York, is less certain. It wouldn't be surprising if Cashman(and Girardi) get the axe, possibly within the next few days or weeks.